Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

Reports that the NE Kherson front has collapsed and Ukraine are advancing through that area:

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1576611568942387200

Super good news if it is true.

 

[TheEdge]

Its even funnier the third time...

 

[brad465]

Super good news if it is true.

Sounds like it's still developing, where the Ukrainian forces have actually moved 20km since yesterday:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576658637329612801

I’m told the collapse of Russian lines in ne Kherson is a story that is still in progress. Understand Ukraine has moved south by at least 20km since yesterday. “It could be even more interesting by the morning,” a recon soldier tells me.

 

[Broucek]

There's what seems to my inexpert eye a good analysis here from an ex-naval officer who explains what "tactical nuke" really means. Pay walled but I think you can read one article for free

Access Restricted

 

[Russel]

Encouraging gains by Ukraine of late showing Putin he can't have it all his own way. But I'm hoping that the Ukraine leadership is, at least privately, thinking of a deal to end this madness. Some people call this 'appeasement' but I disagree because most wars end in a settlement and add to that you are dealing with a nuclear armed state threatening escalation and seeing things differently. I certainly hope it doesn't become a long war - with the fatalities this will cause and the very real danger of catastrophic escalation.

So in my view, a settlement that Ukraine is happy with and an 'off ramp' for Putin may be the best outcome. Perhaps with all the territory lost given back and independently monitored neverendums for the couple of eastern regions for them to decide their future (no red buses lol).

I truly believe this is a very dangerous time.

I share this view too, some form of settlement even if it includes Ukraine handing over Crimea would be preferable to years of war and the death and destruction associated with it.

 

[Herefordian]

Reports that the NE Kherson front has collapsed and Ukraine are advancing through that area:

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1576611568942387200

That's fantastic news.

 

[Annetts key]

More here on a YouTube channel:
Reporting from Ukraine - 02 Oct: BREAKING: Ukrainians Launch NEW ATTACK in the SOUTH | War in Ukraine Explained

I am a Ukrainian. My country has been invaded by Russia. In this video I will tell you what happened on the two hundred and twenty first day of the war.

Day 221: October 02

While the Ukrainians in the north are celebrating their victory in the battle for Lyman and clearing the newly liberated territories, the Ukrainians in the south have launched a massive counterattack and have reportedly achieved significant success. After an unbreakable losing streak, Russian media sources decided to hold back bold predictions and are in unison saying that the situation in the south is very tough. It is very hard to make another conclusion because, in one day, their front line reportedly collapsed by almost 30 km. If this is true, this is the most successful Ukrainian attack in the history of this war.

Yesterday at night, the Ukrainians started to storm Russian positions in the northern part of the Kherson region. The targets of their attack became Lyubymivka and Khreschenivka. This is also confirmed by Russian sources, which indicates that my previous assessment of the situation was partially correct. Based on the NASA FIRMS data, I concluded the front line goes to the south of Khreschenivka, but it went to the north of it. In any case, this still confirms that the Ukrainians retained their positions in Petrivka and Leninske, despite Russian claims that they were taken into a pocket and destroyed.

Russian sources reported that the Russians managed to spot the Ukrainians on time and received considerable reinforcement from the reserves, engaged their artillery and repelled the attack. However, already in the morning, it became clear the fight was not over and that it was developing in favor of the Ukrainians. It turned out that the Ukrainians prepared a heavily equipped fist consisting of several tank battalions and several infantry battalions, and they were ready for a long and brutal fight.

Soon a supporting attack was launched in the direction of Zolota Balka. This means that the Ukrainians previously lost control over this town since there were some confirmations that they took it at first. In any case, this attack was successful, and the Ukrainians managed to this town. After that, the intensity of the fights seemed to have decreased, and the front line stabilized on the line Novovoskresenske-Shevchenkivka.

At 6 am, the Russians decided to conduct a rotation of their forces in Mykhailivka, when the Ukrainians suddenly launched a massive attack. It turned out the Ukrainians had increased the concentration of their forces on this line of attack because, in the previous hours, they had identified that this was a weak spot. It is clear that, at first, the Ukrainians aimed to take Novovoskesenske because it is the key town in the northern part of this region. However, they were willing to adjust their tactic because of the potential gains in the Dudchany direction. They attacked Mykhailivka at 6 am, and by noon they had already collapsed the front line by another 10 kilometers. The evening reports suggest that they did not stop here and several hours ago took Dudchany. Now, Dudchany is located 30 km to the south of the Ukrainian initial potions yesterday. This puts the Russians in a terrible position because all of their positions will find themselves at a crossfire one by one.

As you can see, there are around 2 dozens of small settlements in between, and most of the space around them is empty. Ukrainian attack from several sides has very high chances of collapsing the northern group extremely fast. This is perfect timing for the attack on Davydiv Brid and the nearby settlements. The Russians cannot devote too many reserves to that region right now because the northern front is collapsing. So, Russian artillery will be fully focused on stopping the further expansion of Ukrainian tank battalions, which opens a window for an attack in the central part of the region. Those who are watching my channel on a regular basis can see that this is exactly what I was predicting around a month ago – an attack from the north and center that collapses the northern group from within and forces the Russians in Arkhanhelske and Velyka Oleksandrivka to surrender because they will be completely surrounded.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I share this view too, some form of settlement even if it includes Ukraine handing over Crimea would be preferable to years of war and the death and destruction associated with it.

One thing: if Ukraine can advance to the administrative border of Crimea, it's by no means certain that Russia will be even in a position to hold Crimea.

What's happening in NE Kherson is simply unreal. What has Russia been doing for the last few months? Haven't they built any fortifications at all?

 

[Herefordian]

One thing: if Ukraine can advance to the administrative border of Crimea, it's by no means certain that Russia will be even in a position to hold Crimea.

What's happening in NE Kherson is simply unreal. What has Russia been doing for the last few months? Haven't they built any fortifications at all?

I think if Ukraine can continue this astonishing momentum, I don't see why they can't.

Once Kherson is liberated, which will be key, I'm confident we'll see a significant advance towards Crimea.

I don't see Ukraine stopping at the Crimean border, either.

 

[TheEdge]

What's happening in NE Kherson is simply unreal. What has Russia been doing for the last few months? Haven't they built any fortifications at all?

Having godawful logistics and committing war crimes.

They've been using air defense missiles as cruise missiles because hitting Ukrainian civilians is more important than air defense. They've been holding their actual professional forces in constant combat rather than rotating them out and resting them or using them to train new forces. So any reinforcements are absolute novices and the veterans are dead. This war has gone atrociously wrong and the Russian army is just being terrible.

 

[Annetts key]

This war has gone atrociously wrong and the Russian army is just being terrible.

Just like their leader, Putin, then…

 

[Cloud Strife]

Another day, and I've given up trying to make sense of what Russia is doing. Now they appear to have confirmed that the "LDPR" exists within the borders of the 23rd February, not the borders of 29th September. It looks like it's dawning on the Russian leadership that they're in serious trouble,

Is it outlandish to suggest that Transnistria might well be liberated as one of the outcomes of this war?

 

[Giugiaro]

Is it outlandish to suggest that Transnistria might well be liberated as one of the outcomes of this war?

Hold it right there. That's Moldova we're talking about.

 

[GS250]

Just like their leader, Putin, then…

To be honest...a lot of the Worlds armed forces are poor in the respect of command and control. Most are absolutely top heavy as far as decision making goes. The UK and to an extent the US armed forces delegate a fair amount of control to the senior NCO's and junior CO's. They are highly trusted to be able to make the correct decisions.

Russia's biggest issue is not only its ageing equipment and logistics. But the fact Warrant Officers, Captains and the like are just seen as cannon fodder to the admiralty.

 

[RichJF]

UK Ministry of Defence released their latest assessment on social media.

'Nuclear weapons' extremely unlikely to be used in Ukraine due to mounting pressure from remaining allies of Russia: Who deem it completely unacceptable to use a weapon of this magnitude.

 

[TheEdge]

To be honest...a lot of the Worlds armed forces are poor in the respect of command and control. Most are absolutely top heavy as far as decision making goes. The UK and to an extent the US armed forces delegate a fair amount of control to the senior NCO's and junior CO's. They are highly trusted to be able to make the correct decisions.

Well that's how a competent military should work.

Senior officers should be working on a strategic level while mid and low ranked officers and NCOs should be in change at a tactical level. Its been a long term issue with the USSR/Russian forces that tactical decisions have to be made by senior officers and that slows everything down.

 

[adc82140]

Another day, and I've given up trying to make sense of what Russia is doing. Now they appear to have confirmed that the "LDPR" exists within the borders of the 23rd February, not the borders of 29th September. It looks like it's dawning on the Russian leadership that they're in serious trouble,

Is it outlandish to suggest that Transnistria might well be liberated as one of the outcomes of this war?

Also the borders of the other entities Kherson and the other one I can't spell are to be agreed with "local leaders". Do I smell a climbdown to 24th February borders?

 

[Annetts key]

Also the borders of the other entities Kherson and the other one I can't spell are to be agreed with "local leaders". Do I smell a climbdown to 24th February borders?

The Ukrainian military are, shall we say, changing the current areas of Russian control in the Mykolaiv Oblast, Kherson Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Luhansk Oblast and Donetsk Oblast areas…

 

[adc82140]

The Ukrainian military are, shall we say, changing the current areas of Russian control in the Kherson Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Luhansk Oblast and Donetsk Oblast areas…

From what I can derive from Liveuamap.com Kharkiv Oblast is likely to return 100% to Ukraine in the next few days.

 

[gingerheid]

Is it outlandish to suggest that Transnistria might well be liberated as one of the outcomes of this war?

Outlandish. But not impossible, and possibly not improbable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is it outlandish to suggest that Transnistria might well be liberated as one of the outcomes of this war?

"liberated"

Having been there, it isn't anything like occupied parts of Ukraine, it's more like Kosovo (where I've also been) in being a breakaway region that I understand is happy with the situation, or indeed the northern parts of Kosovo which are "occupied"* by Serbia and also, I believe, reasonably OK with this.

* Depends who you ask.

 

[Chingy]

UK Ministry of Defence released their latest assessment on social media.

'Nuclear weapons' extremely unlikely to be used in Ukraine due to mounting pressure from remaining allies of Russia: Who deem it completely unacceptable to use a weapon of this magnitude.

Have you got a link for this please as I can't seem to find it?

I always listen to what those in the know say a little more, would like to have a read of the latest assessment you mention. Thanks.

 

[brad465]

You see, just because someone has a lot of wealth, doesn't mean they also have a lot of intelligence:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000

Ukraine-Russia Peace: - Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people. - Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake). - Water supply to Crimea assured. - Ukraine remains neutral.

 

[Bungle73]

I've been hearing the UK is likely to experience gas shortages, affecting the electricity supply, over the winter. I've also heard we have been exporting tons of gas. Sorry, why the hell are we exporting gas and then leaving this country with a shortage??? It's disgusting. I'm getting a bit fed up with this whole Ukraine thing. Why should people in this country suffer because of something going on in a county thousands of miles away that has sfa to do with us? When is this country going to stop sticking our nose into areas that don't concern us, and then people here having to deal with the consequences? It's pretty certain that if we hadn't kept sticking our nose in where it didn't belong none of the terrorist attacks over the past 20 years would have happened!

 

[Noddy]

I've been hearing the UK is likely to experience gas shortages, affecting the electricity supply, over the winter. I've also heard we have been exporting tons of gas. Sorry, why the hell are we exporting gas and then leaving this country with a shortage??? It's disgusting. I'm getting a bit fed up with this whole Ukraine thing. Why should people in this country suffer because of something going on in a county thousands of miles away that has sfa to do with us? When is this country going to stop sticking our nose into areas that don't concern us, and then people here having to deal with the consequences? It's pretty certain that if we hadn't kept sticking our nose in where it didn't belong none of the terrorist attacks over the past 20 years would have happened!

Sorry, did you miss the part where a sovereign nation in Europe was invaded by another country for absolutely no reason other than trying to become a better society, cried out for help directly to us and we provided some help? Or the last six plus months of them asking for more aid and weapons so they can feed and defend themselves? But us not providing enough?

The gas shortages will be purely because we got rid of most of our gas storage facilities.

 

[Bungle73]

Sorry, did you miss the part where a sovereign nation in Europe was invaded by another country for absolutely no reason other than trying to become a better society, cried out for help directly to us and we provided some help? Or the last six plus months of them asking for more aid and weapons so they can feed and defend themselves? But us not providing enough?

Er there's been something going on somewhere in the world for as long as I can remember. What's the difference? When people start dying in this country because they can't afford the bloody stupid prices they want for gas and electricity now will that be ok?

 

[43096]

Er there's been something going on somewhere in the world for as long as I can remember. What's the difference? When people start dying in this country because they can't afford the bloody stupid prices they want for gas and electricity now will that be ok?

You know that bully in the schoolyard when you were a kid? Did everyone always give in to him, or did it get to the point that the bigger boys "dealt with him"? Because that is effectively what this is about: Putin is the bully, and we (NATO) should be the bigger boys who deal with him, in this case by giving the victim (Ukraine) the means to fight back.

 

[philosopher]

I've been hearing the UK is likely to experience gas shortages, affecting the electricity supply, over the winter. I've also heard we have been exporting tons of gas. Sorry, why the hell are we exporting gas and then leaving this country with a shortage???

The UK has a lot of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals where LNG is converted back to gaseous natural gas. The UK I think is therefore importing LNG, converting into gaseous natural gas and then exporting that gas through pipelines to the rest of Europe.

Many European countries do not have much capacity to convert LNG into gaseous natural gas.

 

[Noddy]

Er there's been something going on somewhere in the world for as long as I can remember. What's the difference? When people start dying in this country because they can't afford the bloody stupid prices they want for gas and electricity now will that be ok?

The high prices are the result of a Russian mad man so blame him for that.

If we run out this winter blame the previous UK governments for getting rid of our gas storage, failing to invest in our wider energy infrastructure and blame the current PM for claiming on the campaign trail that we wouldn’t have shortages, when it’s clearly not in her control and it was another ridiculous claim to win the leadership election.

Stopping support for Ukraine will make no difference. Unless you are proposing to buy cheap bloodstained gas from Russia?

 

[Bungle73]

You know that bully in the schoolyard when you were a kid? Did everyone always give in to him, or did it get to the point that the bigger boys "dealt with him"? Because that is effectively what this is about: Putin is the bully, and we (NATO) should be the bigger boys who deal with him, in this case by giving the victim (Ukraine) the means to fight back.

I went to a real school. Not one straight out of Just William

The UK has a lot of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals where LNG is converted back to gaseous natural gas. The UK I think is therefore importing LNG, converting into gaseous natural gas and then exporting that gas through pipelines to the rest of Europe.

Many European countries do not have much capacity to convert LNG into gaseous natural gas.

Surely that's their problem?

The high prices are the result of a Russian mad man so blame him for that.

If we run out this winter blame the previous UK governments for getting rid of our gas storage, failing to invest in our wider energy infrastructure and blame the current PM for claiming on the campaign trail that we wouldn’t have shortages, when it’s clearly not in her control and it was another ridiculous claim to win the leadership election.

Stopping support for Ukraine will make no difference. Unless you are proposing to buy cheap bloodstained gas from Russia?

Oh, we couldn't possibly obtain vital resources from places with questionable morals could we........oh wait, we have been doing exactly that for DECADES!