Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

Reports and video footage of a fire at Belbek airfield in Crimea:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1576232176294670336

Now the pilots are smoking too...

 

[Cloud Strife]

Hope the sacrifices from the Ukrainian troops will be worth it and make a huge difference to the direction of this war. I wonder what the Russian POW and fatalities have been in Lyman!

I suspect there might be some truth to it. However, it might well have been worth it for the sheer psychological shock of running over the Russians, because word will spread very fast. It's quite remarkable to see how Ukraine has used the internet to demoralise Russia, something that Russia was previously the master of doing to others.

Having said that, Ukraine has generally been very good at limiting casualties, so this might just be Russia trying to save face.

But again, the important question: why didn't Russia send the reinforcements to Lyman that they promised? What on earth is going on within the Russian military? Have they completely lost faith in their leadership and ultimately the political leadership?

 

[najaB]

I suspect there might be some truth to it. However, it might well have been worth it for the sheer psychological shock of running over the Russians, because word will spread very fast. It's quite remarkable to see how Ukraine has used the internet to demoralise Russia, something that Russia was previously the master of doing to others.

Taking a cold-hearted view of things, even if 200 Ukrainians died in the process of killing/capturing several thousand Russian troops and retaking territory then it has to be seen as a victory.

 

[Falcon1200]

With each passing day, and every new atrocity, is it not utterly ridiculous that Russia still has a permanent seat, plus veto, on the UN Security Council? Presumably there is no mechanism for removing them, because if there was it would already have happened.

 

[JamesT]

With each passing day, and every new atrocity, is it not utterly ridiculous that Russia still has a permanent seat, plus veto, on the UN Security Council? Presumably there is no mechanism for removing them, because if there was it would already have happened.

The normal method for expelling a UN member would involve a Security Council resolution, which Russia would just veto.

 

[Annetts key]

From The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

We thank the “Ministry of Defense” of Russia for successful cooperation in organizing the "Izyum 2.0" exercise. Almost all russian troops deployed to Lyman were successfully redeployed either into body bags or into Ukrainian captivity. We have one question for you: Would you like a repeat?

 

[dgl]

From The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

Excellent!

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

The normal method for expelling a UN member would involve a Security Council resolution, which Russia would just veto.

Slight flaw in the constitution there!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Taking a cold-hearted view of things, even if 200 Ukrainians died in the process of killing/capturing several thousand Russian troops and retaking territory then it has to be seen as a victory.

Undoubtedly so. Even if you take a very cold-hearted view of things, if Russia throws half a million into the war, it would take only 30-50,000 Ukrainian losses to defeat them. That's...not that much, and it has to be a very frightening situation for the Russian military leadership.

With each passing day, and every new atrocity, is it not utterly ridiculous that Russia still has a permanent seat, plus veto, on the UN Security Council? Presumably there is no mechanism for removing them, because if there was it would already have happened.

Unfortunately, in the UN, Russia enjoys a considerable amount of support from African countries. The "African Twitter" is very, very much on Putin's side.

It seems that the final count will be several hundred dead and several hundred POW's. The rumour is that Russia sent forces in order to aid the retreat from Lyman, but still, I'd say that a figure of around 1000 losses to the Russian side is quite devastating in terms of morale.

The explosion in Crimea may be related to this: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1570880456496918528.html

(the link describes an espionage case in Ukraine, related to the Grom/Grim-2/Hrim-2 missile. If Ukraine has indeed managed to get the missile working, then it means Russia effectively has no missile defence system. Which is insane.)

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The normal method for expelling a UN member would involve a Security Council resolution, which Russia would just veto.

Genuine question: How did Taiwan get expelled when they had a veto?

 

[Ediswan]

Genuine question: How did Taiwan get expelled when they had a veto?

Short version, the UN changed who was entitled to represent China. Taiwan had never been a member.
Long version: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_2758

The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 (also known as the Resolution on Admitting Peking) was passed in response to the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 1668 that required any change in China's representation in the UN be determined by a two-thirds vote referring to Article 18[1] of the UN Charter. The resolution, passed on 25 October 1971, recognized the People's Republic of China (PRC) as "the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations" and removed "the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek" from the United Nations.

Other versions are probably available.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Genuine question: How did Taiwan get expelled when they had a veto?

Reports on Twitter of Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna and Severodonetsk being shelled. If this is true, then it looks like the Ukrainian strategy is to try and provoke the Russians into fleeing while they're still reeling. It seems very very unlikely, but if they could somehow take those four places in the near future, it would have tremendous implications for the entire northern Luhansk oblast.

 

[Annetts key]

Two interesting and relevant YouTube videos:

Russian Plane Crashes at Belbek Airfield, Crimea
Transcript:

0:00
hello everyone just a short video here
0:03
so there's been an incident at bellback
0:05
Airfield in Crimea Russians report an
0:08
explosion there and some of you may have
0:10
seen this video showing a thick plume of
0:12
smoke over the Airfield now everyone's
0:15
mind jumps to an attack I did as well
0:18
but I don't think it is I have also
0:21
found this video playing now it shows a
0:23
plain Korean an off-runway and down a
0:26
cliff before exploding
0:28
so some sort of accident which occurred
0:31
we are going to have to wait for more
0:33
information what the plane was that sort
0:36
of thing and perhaps a clearer video
0:38
which may show how exactly this happened
0:41
so this one is from Google Maps
0:44
and it shows what the base is never
0:46
Coast
0:47
so the video of a plane going off a
0:49
cliff does add up as being from here
0:51
Bell Beck is home to squadrons flying
0:54
sue 30s and su-27s so it's likely one of
0:58
those in the incident
1:00
here it is zoomed out so you can see
1:02
that it's north of sevastopol Harbor
1:05
so I don't have much more information as
1:08
of now I will do an update video
1:10
tomorrow if we get more
1:12
now before we finish I just want to say
1:14
a big thank you to patreon so far
1:17
there's quite a few so I'll do a shout
1:20
out to some now and some in later videos
1:22
so it's not just a big list of thanks
1:25
so very much thank you to Marcus Eric
1:28
Mikhail Julian and Matthew it's very
1:32
much appreciated I really do appreciate
1:34
you donating a bit so thanks very much I
1:37
hope you all have a great weekend and I
1:40
hope everybody watching has a great
1:41
weekend too
1:42
so thanks again if you can click like
1:45
And subscribe that would be great just a
1:48
short video as it's nearly 1am here and
1:51
it's about time for me to go to bed take
1:53
care

Channel 4 News report on today’s events in Ukraine
Transcript:

0:00
another blue and yellow flag is unfurled
0:02
in eastern Ukraine
0:09
establishing it on our land the soldiers
0:11
say as Ukrainian forces roll into Le man
0:15
signs that many Russian troops didn't
0:17
make it out Russia says its troops have
0:20
withdrawn to avoid being surrounded by
0:23
Ukraine's Army it was thought there were
0:25
around five thousand in the city now
0:27
back under Ukrainian control big wins
0:31
could see Russia across a line the
0:33
leader of chechnya a close Kremlin Ally
0:36
said Moscow should consider using a
0:38
low-yield nuclear weapon in response
0:42
Le Mans is a strategic City in the
0:44
Northeast Donetsk region since Russia
0:47
captured it in May they've transformed
0:49
the city into a major Logistics hub for
0:52
troop deployments and ammunition
0:53
supplies capturing the man would allow
0:56
Ukraine to completely mop up the
0:58
northern part of the Donetsk region and
1:01
move further into luhansk
1:04
the Donetsk and luhansk regions together
1:06
make up the wider donbass region the
1:09
area has been a major Focus for Russia
1:12
Le Mans capture is one of Russia's worst
1:15
military defeats since the start of its
1:17
invasion in February
1:22
just a day after celebrations in
1:25
moscow's Red Square after these two
1:27
regions and two others were declared as
1:30
Russia
1:35
all this makes a mockery of Vladimir
1:38
Putin's big announcement yesterday
1:40
demonstrating that he can't hold what he
1:43
just annexed the U.S president said the
1:46
annexation was a sign Putin was
1:48
struggling Joe Biden had this warning
1:51
for the Russian president I want to say
1:53
this again
1:54
America is fully prepared prepared with
1:57
our NATO allies to defend every single
2:00
inch of NATO territory
2:02
every single in so Mr Putin don't
2:06
misunderstand what I'm saying every inch
2:11
today more details emerged of another
2:13
attack on a civilian Convoy this time in
2:16
the Northeast Ukraine Security Service
2:19
says women and children were shot dead
2:21
by Russians at close range in no man's
2:24
land they were caught between a recently
2:27
liberated town and an occupied one
2:30
many Russians want no part in this
2:33
hundreds have fled the country to avoid
2:36
Putin's Mass mobilization here a new
2:39
recruit gets his weapon
2:43
we don't know how many of these men have
2:45
chosen to be here or what impact their
2:48
stories home will have on public support
2:51
for Russia's War
2:54
well I'm joined Now by Alexi goncherenko
2:57
who's a Ukrainian MP and a member of the
2:59
Ukrainian delegation to the
3:01
Parliamentary assembly of the Council of
3:03
Europe thank you so much for coming in
3:04
extraordinary events in the past 24
3:07
hours first of all this successful
3:09
offensive in the town of Le Mans how
3:11
significant is that it is extremely
3:14
significant I don't I know this town
3:16
very good uh
3:18
previously before The Invasion gunshanka
3:21
Center one of our Network worked there
3:23
so I've been there many times and it is
3:25
strategically located and it means it's
3:29
really the biggest Russian defeat for
3:31
quite a long time and the Russian army
3:34
and Russian units were enveloped there
3:36
encircled more than 5 000 troops so it's
3:39
the biggest from 1945 when in April
3:43
um during the Contra offensive for Verma
3:45
Russian Soviet troops were encircled so
3:48
this is a big military failure and this
3:51
is a big military success for Ukraine
3:53
and I am extremely happy with this and
3:55
it comes of course just the day after
3:57
President Putin annexed this region and
4:01
three others in Ukraine yeah and this is
4:04
the best answer to Putin from Ukrainian
4:07
Army and from Ukraine because we never
4:10
will accept this annexation we can't
4:12
leave our more people under the genocide
4:14
under the genocide once again it's not a
4:18
political expression it's a juridical
4:20
one according to United Nations
4:21
convention and prevention of genocide
4:23
there are five criteria and all five are
4:26
met unfortunately unoccupied territories
4:28
so we need to liberate our people and we
4:31
are doing this as you see very
4:32
successfully but the reality is this
4:34
this annexation even though it has been
4:36
deemed to be illegal across the world
4:38
still poses a new threat to the war
4:40
doesn't it yeah because uh again this is
4:43
a crime this is uh again a new war crime
4:47
from Putin and also he tries to cover
4:50
with the these his military failures but
4:52
at the same time it's the way to new
4:54
escalation and again he threatened he's
4:57
threatening the world with nuclear
4:58
weaponry I like his spear spoke
5:00
yesterday yes exactly so this you know
5:03
classic puttanesque ceremony where he
5:05
announced that where he declared the
5:07
annexation he said that you know the
5:09
annexed lands would be protected with
5:11
all the forces and means that are
5:12
disposal and what do you think that
5:14
means in reality and before he said that
5:17
he he said by the way yesterday that
5:20
this is not the war against Ukraine but
5:22
against the west and Anglo-Saxons and he
5:25
accused the United States of using a
5:27
nuclear weaponry meaning Hiroshima and
5:29
Nagasaki in 1945 and saying that this is
5:32
the precedent so he he underlined this
5:35
and for sure that is a big threat uh and
5:38
but is it more than a threat do you
5:40
think I think for the moment it's uh
5:42
it's a bluff and he is just a
5:45
threatening but everything can go the
5:47
unfortunately we can't say that it will
5:50
not go this way and I just want to
5:52
remind you that Ukraine is the only
5:55
nation in the human history which
5:56
voluntarily gave up nuclear weaponry in
5:59
1994 and the guarantees of the United
6:01
States United Kingdom and and Russia but
6:04
we can laugh about it but uh United
6:06
States and United Kingdom and today I
6:09
think this is the tone for a free world
6:11
to say that using of nuclear weaponry
6:14
will be suicide for Russia I mean at the
6:17
same time as he's making these threats
6:18
president zielinski called on NATO to
6:20
fast-track Ukraine's entry into NATO the
6:24
NATO General Secretary General has
6:25
already said this won't happen quickly
6:27
how do you read that first of all NATO
6:29
Secretary General with all respect he's
6:32
not making these decisions this is a
6:34
political decision of countries member
6:36
states of NATO and in reality Ukraine
6:39
today uh in the is in the war for nature
6:42
because Putin said I have the war with
6:44
nature and who is fighting there Ukraine
6:46
today but with a Weaponry support of our
6:50
Alice so I am a very big supporter of
6:53
Ukraine being a member of the NATO I
6:56
think it's but it's not going to happen
6:57
quickly realistically is it uh it looks
7:00
like not but I would like to see how it
7:03
happens because once again we are
7:05
already in the war we're already real
7:07
Alice and I don't see any other security
7:10
guarantees and once again our country we
7:12
is the the only country in the world
7:16
which gave up nuclear weapons so I think
7:18
this is so important to threaten us with
7:21
nuclear weaponry is even double cynical
7:23
than any other country on the planet I
7:25
mean there has been this huge unified
7:27
support from NATO members from Europe
7:29
but do you worry that as this conflict
7:31
escalates as Putin makes more threats
7:33
about you know pressing the nuclear
7:35
button that that this could Splinter the
7:39
alliance
7:40
um that has supported Ukraine so far I
7:42
hope this will not happen for us all the
7:45
stress nuclear threats you know uh we
7:48
are already on on the genocide and for
7:50
me it's not a big difference whether I
7:52
will be killed with a mission gun
7:54
missile or nukes but for the world that
7:56
it's a big difference and it's real red
7:58
line and I think Putin showed yesterday
8:01
that he should be stopped as soon as
8:03
possible yesterday he quoted yebles by
8:06
the way yesterday is the anniversary of
8:07
Munich agreement of 1938 when Hitler
8:10
enacts part of Jehovah Slovakia and we
8:12
know all what happened after so I think
8:14
we should make lessons from history and
8:16
we should stop aggressor before it's not
8:18
too late Alexi gunterenko thank you so
8:20
much for talking thank you today thank
8:22
you

(They both have transcripts available from within YouTube, as it’s a lot of effort to reformat the text without the time stamps, I’ve left these in the quoted text).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Oct 2022 ==

Denys Davydov has recently opened a Telegram ‘channel’ (link https://t.me/pilotblog please note some of the videos include distressing scenes so not suitable for under 18s) and is posting more videos of the aircraft that crashed at Belbek airfield in Crimea. Plus obviously other items related to the war in Ukraine.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I've seen one comment on Twitter that I think accurately sums up how things are going for the Russian forces:

For the forced conscripts this will be (and it already is) even more a shock. Seriously, they have neither experience nor the guts to survive what’s coming for them. 22 years of propaganda have totally cooked their brain.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576282812923006976

I think there's a lot of truth to this. The Ukrainian forces are becoming more and more battle hardened, and someone thrown into a war with minimal training is simply going to either freeze or run at the first contact. If 'professional' Rusisan soldiers couldn't hold Lyman, what hope do conscripts have?

 

[Chingy]

The counter side of all the recent Ukrainian success on the battlefield is the ever increasing likelihood of Putin turning to nuclear weapons.

Some "senior" figures within the Kremlin have called for nuclear weapon usage after Ukraine's success in liberating Lyman today.

As the rat gets cornered more and more, as Ukraine continues to retake land from Russia, as Putin suffers further embarrassment on the battlefield it only comes a matter of time before Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons to halt Ukraine's offensive, send a statement and turn the tide in this pointless war.

Especially when he has nothing to lose and pressure increases from those around him.

 

[Darandio]

Some "senior" figures within the Kremlin have called for nuclear weapon usage after Ukraine's success in liberating Lyman today.

Source?

He has everything to lose. The support of China being one.

 

[birchesgreen]

Source?

He has everything to lose. The support of China being one.

Plus the radioactive fallout would likely land on some of the most productive agricultural land of Russia.

 

[yorksrob]

I do get the feeling that Putin could do with defenestrating some of his more hot-headed generals - for the longer term wellbeing of Russia.

 

[adc82140]

Source?

He has everything to lose. The support of China being one.

It's Kadyrov of Chechnya. So hardly Putin's inner circle. Notably Russian state media is ignoring this, but whenever someone like Medvedev opens his trap and waves his nuclear willy they are all over it.

 

[Chingy]

Source?

He has everything to lose. The support of China being one.

My mistake, it wasn't someone from within the Kremlin but rather a senior Putin ally. The Sky News headline I saw earlier was rather misleading. Nevertheless, it does go to show the desperation filtering into the Russian military now;

Putin ally calls for Ukraine to be nuked after Russian retreat from key city

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov urged the Russian president to use 'low-yield nuclear weapons' after Kremlin forces suffered a huge defeat.

metro.co.uk

Russia has been urged to deploy ‘low-yield’ nuclear weapons by Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.

In a long-winded rant on the app Telegram, the region’s leader, and close ally of Vladimir Putin, said ‘more drastic measures’ should be taken.’

While figures close to the Kremlin have sabre-rattled over the use of nuclear weapons, the comments are the first time a senior figure close to the Russian President has publicly and explicitly urged him to use them.

Also, will Putin really care what China, India etc think if he's on his last legs and cornered that bad?

 

[TheEdge]

My mistake, it wasn't someone from within the Kremlin but rather a senior Putin ally. The Sky News headline I saw earlier was rather misleading. Nevertheless, it does go to show the desperation filtering into the Russian military now;

I'm still waiting for Chechnya to kick off again, Putin is looking very weak.

Also, will Putin really care what China, India etc think if he's on his last legs and cornered that bad?

Yes. Those two are the countries still paying for his gas in vast quantities and China especially is moving to be the stronger partner in their bilateral relationship. China also has a very strict nuclear policy which means it just couldn't accept Russia striking first.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm surprised that the Chechen puppet hasn't been seen off by his own countrymen yet

 

[DustyBin]

It's Kadyrov of Chechnya. So hardly Putin's inner circle. Notably Russian state media is ignoring this, but whenever someone like Medvedev opens his trap and waves his nuclear willy they are all over it.

I saw this too. Kadyrov is a mad dog kept as a pet by Putin purely to maintain order in Chechnya. I very much doubt Putin listens to him, fortunately.

 

[Annetts key]

The counter side of all the recent Ukrainian success on the battlefield is the ever increasing likelihood of Putin turning to nuclear weapons.

Some "senior" figures within the Kremlin have called for nuclear weapon usage after Ukraine's success in liberating Lyman today.

As the rat gets cornered more and more, as Ukraine continues to retake land from Russia, as Putin suffers further embarrassment on the battlefield it only comes a matter of time before Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons to halt Ukraine's offensive, send a statement and turn the tide in this pointless war.

Especially when he has nothing to lose and pressure increases from those around him.

See post 5169

 

[Sm5]

Rumours are that Kreminna might also fall within hours, which to the best of my map reading abilities puts Svatove in a very difficult position. From there, it seems that control of the Kupiansk-Kreminna road would put tremendous pressure on Severnodonetsk. If Severnodonetsk falls, then Luhansk city is within reach of HIMARS. Of course, the Russans expended a huge amount of energy in taking Severnodonetsk, and so the city will be difficult to defend.

I think the remarkable thing here is that we're seeing that Russia has no answer to intelligence-led precision strikes.

i was watching this too.
if you look at the map / landscape, there is not many border crossings to Russia in Luhansk. Its flat rolling hills, country and villages.

My hypothesis…

if they took out Troits’ke in the north of Svatowe, and Roven’ki (which I suspect isnt doing much) then Belgorod effectively is finished in its supply role in this war, and Russia needs to move supply centres to Voronzeh further north and becomes more important, but puts a greater diversion east to Luhansk down the M-4.

it makes most of Luhansk oblast really pointless for Russia to defend, as its just villages and hugely stretched lines to Starobilsk and Severodonetsk from the M-4 forget Svatowe that withers almost immediately.

As Russia will have massively expanded their supply lines, to defend Luhansk city I would imagine would be that would be priority, gifting the greater oblast pretty much to Ukraine once more and back at the 2014 border.

I suspect for the same reasons, was why Ukraine folded so quickly here too in February.

After that i’m not sure, but it would be interesting to think if they stopped there, and coordinated attempts on Mariupol and Melitopol could help Kherson and bring Putin closer to his senses. I’m not quite understanding whats making progress at Davydiv Brid so difficult despite all those attacks on the bridges to cut supply lines, which surely Russia has resestablished in some means by now.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I take all this talk by Putin &co of nuclear weapons to be bluster designed to reinforce the tough guy image at home. Biden's public response was, in diplomatic terms, about as strong as it possibly could be without actually making a direct counter-threat. You can be sure it will have been accompanied by messages to Russia via private channels making it clear exactly what sort of response will arise from any first use of nuclear weapons by Russia. I wouldn't exclude the possibility that the US in that situation would go ahead and sink Russia's Black Sea fleet, and possibly destroy the naval base in Sevastopol, thereby rendering Russia's whole invasion of Ukraine pointless. This could be done without any attack on the internationally recognised territory of Russia nor any joining up of NATO forces with those of Ukraine. And whereas previously Turkey has tried to maintain an even-handed approach to the situation Putin's declared annexation has been condemned by Turkey as a "grave violation" of international law.

 

[Annetts key]

Reporting from Ukraine has just posted a new report: Link to YouTube

I am a Ukrainian. My country has been invaded by Russia. In this video I will tell you what happened on the two hundred and twentieth day of the war.

Day 220: October 01

Today the Ukrainians won the battle for Lyman. Russian Ministry of defense has made a hard choice and ordered the Russians in Lyman to urgently retreat from their positions. The Russians put themselves in an unbelievably bad position because not only did they violate their promise not to abandon even one town after the annexation, but they also did it so late that many Russians obviously did not manage to return. Many videos emerged on the Russian side that many vehicles in the back of the convoy never reached their destination, and many videos appeared on the Ukrainian side showing destroyed convoys and new prisoners of war. Interestingly, many sources suggest that this is not what the Russians planned to do. It seems like they planned to make a counterattack, but something went terribly wrong, and let me tell exactly what it was.

Yesterday, the Ukrainians established total control over Stavky, Drobysheve and Yampil. This meant that the Russians in Lyman and Zaichne became completely surrounded. The concentration of Russian forces in Zarichne increased as the Russians from abandoned Stavky, and Yampil arrived. A huge convoy has been formed in anticipation of a retreat order. Nonetheless, some sources say that their received an order to hold their positions, which meant that they would have to spend another night trying to repel Ukrainian attacks.

In the meantime, the Russians in Svatove prepared additional reserves to hold Lyman. A group of forces had also been prepared in Kreminna. However, suddenly the reports started coming in suggesting that Ukrainian scout groups were already operating and storming settlements between Zarichne and Svatove, and that they even took Yampolivka, which is located to the north of Zarichne. The Russians needed to quickly change their plan and turn a reinforcement operation into a deblockading operation.

A little later, videos emerged of Russian forces retreating to Kreminna, saying that they were ambushed and many Russian soldiers did not return. It is a fact that Ukrainian artillery, with ease, controls the road from Kreminna to Zarichna. The video evidence also suggests that many vehicles were caught on the move by the artillery, therefore, it is highly likely that Ukrainian scout groups operated in the forest under cover of their artillery, spotted a convoy, gave a signal to the artillery and then finished or took captive those who were left behind.

It is less clear what happened near Yampolivka and Zarichne, so let me first tell you the facts and then my interpretation. Elements of the 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment tried to break the encirclement in the Lyman-Zarichne area. The Russians in Lyman and Zarichne received an order to retreat. And then Ukrainian entered Lyman.

It seems like the elements of the 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment never reached Zarichne because they were stopped somewhere around Yampolivka. Many Russian sources confirm that these elements at least partly consisted of newly-mobilized men, which indicates they could not operate on the ground effectively. Realizing that this was the best situation that the Russians were going to have, Russian General Staff ordered to retreat, so the Russians seem to have left Lyman, joined the convoy in Zarichne and tried to break through the Ukrainian blockade, while the Ukrainians were fighting with this Rifle Regiment.

Overall, it seems like the Russian deblokading operation, despite being a disaster, was at least in part successful. Many troops managed to escape, but many were also caught on the move by the artillery and operating Ukrainian units in the region. There are a lot of videos showing destroyed vehicles, and there are many videos with new prisoners of war.

In the meantime, the Ukrainians are clearing Lyman and are preparing for the next wave of assaults. It was already confirmed that the artillery preparation started in Kreminna, Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk. Once the Ukrainians disrupt communications and disorganize the Russian defense, they will begin to advance further.

 

[GS250]

Whilst I’m a great believer in human stupidity, it’s unbelievable that a war of this nature is being fought in Europe in 2022. Even from the premise that all wars are stupid this one really takes the biscuit. One man’s war of choice……

To be fair, war isn't reserved for non Europeans. There is plenty of daily bloodshed World over although we've (generally) been at peace in Europe since WW2.

I would say though, that if any continent is capable of truly organised, high tech and brutal violence....it's Europe.

 

[TheEdge]

I would say though, that if any continent is capable of truly organised, high tech and brutal violence....it's Europe.

Tangentially Europe is predisposed to being at war and has been for most of human history.

Its rather unique in that its a pretty small continent and made up of many small, culturally diverse, mostly rich and or influential (medieval and later periods at least), countries or ethnic groups. That just leads to land wars between each other all the time. I believe that the period from 1945-Feb 2022 is one of the longest periods where we've not seen two countries going at each other in an all out land war in Europe for a very very long time. The only real blip in that period is the various conflicts during the break up of Yugoslavia but they were more akin to a civil war.

 

[philosopher]

I take all this talk by Putin &co of nuclear weapons to be bluster designed to reinforce the tough guy image at home. Biden's public response was, in diplomatic terms, about as strong as it possibly could be without actually making a direct counter-threat. You can be sure it will have been accompanied by messages to Russia via private channels making it clear exactly what sort of response will arise from any first use of nuclear weapons by Russia. I wouldn't exclude the possibility that the US in that situation would go ahead and sink Russia's Black Sea fleet, and possibly destroy the naval base in Sevastopol, thereby rendering Russia's whole invasion of Ukraine pointless. This could be done without any attack on the internationally recognised territory of Russia nor any joining up of NATO forces with those of Ukraine. And whereas previously Turkey has tried to maintain an even-handed approach to the situation Putin's declared annexation has been condemned by Turkey as a "grave violation" of international law.

As nasty as Putin is, there are even more hardline people in Russia who frequently advocate the use of tactical nuclear weapons and want Russia to reclaim all former USSR terrorities. So I think to some exact a lot of Putin’s anti western tirades and threats to use nuclear weapons are an attempt to appease the hardliners.