Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

[DelayRepay]

Letters have, apparently, already been submitted.

I have seen that, but we don't know how many.

It might just be two, from a Mr Sunak and a Mr Johnson!

 

[SuspectUsual]

I have seen that, but we don't know how many.

It might just be two, from a Mr Sunak and a Mr Johnson!

And Dorries, surely

 

[nr758123]

"Her, Kwasi, Philp and Simon [McGee] are playing A-level economics with people's lives."

A level economics is being unfairly maligned here.

I did A level economics and even though it was something like 35 years ago, I have retained enough of it to understand that what is being done now is mind-numbingly stupid. Admittedly my A level economics was not done at Roundhay School, and maybe there was a completely different syllabus taught there.

 

[Yew]

Not just for the wealthy. Stamp duty affects regular families and the 19% income tax rate will benefit everyone.

you are technically correct that there are small benefits to lower earners? But the policies offer much larger benefits to higher earners. As a one line summary, I feel that it’s a reasonable assessment.

 

[Gloster]

Truss needs another hundred days before she can avoid being the PM with the shortest tenure. If letters of no confidence are already being submitted after less than three weeks, during half of which politics was at a standstill, I wouldn’t put money on her avoiding that achievement.

Personal opinion coming up. In any other era a government and PM in such a mess would have accepted that the the best and, incidentally, most honest thing to do would be to go to the country. This lot have too many backers and paymasters who want a return on their investment (in MPs), so the government will trash the joint and wreck the system to their backers’ advantage before they go down. I don’t know if Truss knows this, or is just a useful idiot.

 

[Bletchleyite]

you are technically correct that there are small benefits to lower earners? But the policies offer much larger benefits to higher earners. As a one line summary, I feel that it’s a reasonable assessment.

Yes, I think it's fair to say most taxpayers will benefit in some form if only from the NI reduction and the 19% basic rate, but higher earners will benefit a lot more.

 

[brad465]

The pound had gone up to net gain on belief of an emergency rate meeting, but is now back to down 1% on today's start after the BoE and Treasury made statements with no such meeting on the cards.

 

[nlogax]

With Truss in charge and Kwarteng making the fiscal decisions we're currently watching a slow motion car crash. In of itself that's nothing unusual.

What's particularly galling is that this was all signposted well in advance. 81,000 Tory members thought Tryss' plan would be a spiffing wheeze. Her sheer belief in unicorns would result in Equus Acutis everywhere, farting cash and British exceptionalism.

Just another two years until an election, eh? I don't want to wait that long. Sunak must be laughing his arse off right now

 

[nw1]

With Truss in charge and Kwarteng making the fiscal decisions we're currently watching a slow motion car crash. In of itself that's nothing unusual.

What's particularly galling is that this was all signposted well in advance. 81,000 Tory members thought Tryss' plan would be a spiffing wheeze. Her sheer belief in unicorns would result in Equus Acutis everywhere, farting cash and British exceptionalism.

Just another two years until an election, eh? I don't want to wait that long. Sunak must be laughing his arse off right now

I doubt it'll be two years, given elections normally take place in spring or early summer. This is an obvious time of year to hold it, as there is plenty of daylight for campaigning and the weather is likely to be reasonable (but it isn't the main summer holiday season) and has been the time of year all elections since 1979 have been held aside from the "strange" Johnson election of 2019.

So I'd anticipate an election by June 2024 at the absolute latest. But probably earlier if things go on as they are.

As for Truss and Kwarteng, the main impression I have is of sheer incompetence, much more than any previous prime ministers and chancellors of my lifetime - and I include Johnson in that.

 

[gg1]

Out of curiosity (with more than a hint of wishful thinking), if Liz Truss is booted out by her own party prior to the next General Election, would she be the first PM never to have fought a General Election?

 

[Gloster]

Out of curiosity (with more than a hint of wishful thinking), if Liz Truss is booted out by her own party prior to the next General Election, would she be the first PM never to have fought a General Election?

Chamberlain didn’t fight a general election. Do I see a similarity?

 

[brad465]

YouGov have just published their latest Opinion Poll, giving Labour a 17 point lead, which is their largest since the height of Blair and the largest of the current Parliament, and shows how politically damaging the last few days are:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1574511096429531136

Westminster voting intention: LAB: 45% (+3) CON: 28% (-4) LDEM: 9% (-1) GRN: 7% (-) via @YouGov, 23 - 25 Sep Chgs. w/ 12 Sep

What is clear is that there is no sign of a honeymoon period for Truss, she might have got one if this "Mini budget" saw some popular and/or sensible policies announced, but the opposite happened.

 

[Cloud Strife]

As for Truss and Kwarteng, the main impression I have is of sheer incompetence, much more than any previous prime ministers and chancellors of my lifetime - and I include Johnson in that.

I just wonder: is it possible that the Tories know that losing the next election is inevitable, and so they've decided to simply enrich their mates? It seems unthinkable that Truss would be so stupid as to allow this without knowing the consequences.

Or there's the possibility that she *is* as thick as people claimed, and therefore she didn't understand the consequences.

 

[birchesgreen]

I don't think she is thick but she might be blinded by ideology.

 

[jon0844]

She is doing what she's told to do since selling out to the ERG. So far she's doing a great job (for them) and the right wing media are mostly still supporting her.

GB News is still saying how great she is (albeit not talking about exchange rates, inflation etc) and put her narrowly above the new Italian PM.

I think the right wing are still supporting her, and will actually only turn if she got a conscience and started to reverse some of these crazy decisions.

I doubt she will as she's a useful idiot and wants to enjoy some great photo opportunities and produce more posters of her looking Thatcher like. Someone she could never be.

 

[Gloster]

I don't think she is thick but she might be blinded by ideology.

Blinded by short-term ambition, more like. Certain policies are popular with those who hold the power and purse-strings, so she pursues those policies. Although it is quite possible that she believes in the policies, at the moment anyway, as that gets her where she wants to be (in front of the camera).

 

[duncanp]

Out of curiosity (with more than a hint of wishful thinking), if Liz Truss is booted out by her own party prior to the next General Election, would she be the first PM never to have fought a General Election?

If the Conservatives get rid of Liz Truss before the next election, it will not just be like turkeys voting for Christmas, it will be like turkeys voting for Christmas to be brought forward to next week.

Who would want to be the next Conservative leader anyway, having to deal with the mess that someone else has created?

I am sure there will be a lot of plotting and subterfuge in the pubs and bars of Birmingham next week (Conservative Party Conference)

 

[Howardh]

If the Conservatives get rid of Liz Truss before the next election, it will not just be like turkeys voting for Christmas, it will be like turkeys voting for Christmas to be brought forward to next week.

Who would want to be the next Conservative leader anyway, having to deal with the mess that someone else has created?

I am sure there will be a lot of plotting and subterfuge in the pubs and bars of Birmingham next week (Conservative Party Conference)

Sunak or Johnson would jump at the chance!

 

[nw1]

She is doing what she's told to do since selling out to the ERG. So far she's doing a great job (for them) and the right wing media are mostly still supporting her.

GB News is still saying how great she is (albeit not talking about exchange rates, inflation etc) and put her narrowly above the new Italian PM.

Damning with faint praise that one!

 

[XAM2175]

What is clear is that there is no sign of a honeymoon period for Truss, she might have got one if this "Mini budget" saw some popular and/or sensible policies announced, but the opposite happened.

Theoretically, it could be the honeymoon period that's keeping Labour's lead from being even higher

I just wonder: is it possible that the Tories know that losing the next election is inevitable, and so they've decided to simply enrich their mates? It seems unthinkable that Truss would be so stupid as to allow this without knowing the consequences.

I usually don't pay too much heed to theories that walk this kind of line, but so far there have definitely been some surprising co-incidences. Removing the 45% rate of income tax in the same year that cabinet members all get paid enough to need to pay it, and trying to employ a SPAD as a contractor at the same time as rolling back the IR35 rules regarding how said arrangements are taxed are both great looks. Then there's crashing the pound so spectacularly too...

I don't think she is thick but she might be blinded by ideology.

She is doing what she's told to do since selling out to the ERG.

But this can't be ruled out at all, obviously. A nice big financial crisis is perfect for creating an apparent need for austerity, which sets up the ground to cut spending and services all over the place. You've heard of shrinking the state, but perhaps "starving" might be more apt now.

 

[Mogster]

The first letters for Boris allegedly were submitted after Cummings jaunt to Barnard Castle in May 2021. There weren’t enough for a vote until June 2022.

They can be withdrawn as well as submitted.

 

[nlogax]

The weirdest takes I've seen recently come from certain right-leaning journalists who seem to think the pound's current appalling performance is due to the fear in the markets of an incoming Labour government. The mental gymnastics required to come to that conclusion are quite staggering.

All of what we're witnessing is surely worthy of an Adam Curtis documentary. Forget his new seven part opus on the decline of Russia, Truss & co is where the madness resides.

 

[brad465]

But this can't be ruled out at all, obviously. A nice big financial crisis is perfect for creating an apparent need for austerity, which sets up the ground to cut spending and services all over the place. You've heard of shrinking the state, but perhaps "starving" might be more apt now.

There's also the possibility that if they hand Labour the next election they'll have so much to clear up that popularity won't be high, so the Tories could get back at the following election as a form of long-term thinking. A number of swing seat MPs won't approve of this because they'll likely be out of a job, but safe Tory MPs are more likely to go along with it as they can stay in Parliament throughout.

They can be withdrawn as well as submitted.

I recall Sir Roger Gale being one such example; he revealed he wrote a letter during the Barnard Castle saga, and resubmitted a letter during Partygate.

 

[nw1]

There's also the possibility that if they hand Labour the next election they'll have so much to clear up that popularity won't be high, so the Tories could get back at the following election as a form of long-term thinking. A number of swing seat MPs won't approve of this because they'll likely be out of a job, but safe Tory MPs are more likely to go along with it as they can stay in Parliament throughout.

I do indeed wonder whether the Tories are trying to deliberately lose, for this precise reason.

 

[Typhoon]

They can be withdrawn as well as submitted.

I think several were when Ukraine hit centre stage.

 

[najaB]

The weirdest takes I've seen recently come from certain right-leaning journalists who seem to think the pound's current appalling performance is due to the fear in the markets of an incoming Labour government. The mental gymnastics required to come to that conclusion are quite staggering.

That is impressive, to say the least. 10/10 from all the judges.

 

[brad465]

The IMF have made a statement based on our latest economic situation, something you'd think they'd say in an emerging market:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1574849502133080064

NEW: Statement from IMF on UK, a pretty clear rebuke to Friday: “We’re closely monitoring recent economic developments in the UK and are engaged with the authorities. Given elevated inflation pressures…we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture.”

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Sep 2022 ==

EDIT: Headline articles now appearing on this IMF statement:

IMF openly criticises UK government tax plans

The UK government proposals will work at "cross purposes" with the cost-of-living fight, the IMF says.

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK government should reconsider its plan for tax cuts, the International Monetary Fund has said, warning that the measures are likely to fuel the cost-of-living crisis.
In an unusually outspoken statement, the IMF said the proposal would be likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.
Markets have already raised alarm over the plans, sending the pound plunging.
The government says the measures will kickstart economic growth.
Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the country's biggest tax package in 50 years on Friday, funded by the government borrowing tens of billions of pounds.

The IMF, which works to stabilise the global economy, said it understood the package aimed to boosting growth via tax cuts, but it said that it could boost inflation, which the UK's central bank is trying to bring down.
"Furthermore, the nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality," it said.
The UK government proposals would scrap the top rate of income tax, and end a cap on bankers' bonuses, among other measures.
The announcement sparked days of financial turmoil, as investors dumped the pound and UK debt, and some of the country's biggest lenders suspended mortgage deals amid the uncertainty.

 

[Typhoon]

An interesting take on the budget fiscal event in last Wednesday's Evening Standard (I only got that far yesterday). The scrapping of the cap on 'Banker's Bonuses' may not have the desired effect.

Kwasi Kwarteng presumably imagines that, whatever anyone else thinks, bankers will surely welcome his plan to scrap the cap on their bonuses.

The Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng believes this move will boost the City, part of his and Liz Truss’s drive for growth.

There has already been resistance to the bonus idea from surprising sources. Sir Win Bischoff, the City grandee and former chair of Lloyds, called the move “symbolic”.

It doesn’t make London more competitive, he says, concluding: “This isn’t necessary.”

So it may not work as a policy, and there’s also a chance some of the presumed beneficiaries might not be wild about it.

When the cap came in post 2008, one effect was to boost fixed pay, what the rest of us call salaries.

So for the bankers, their total take-home may not have shifted much. More of it was guaranteed rather than reliant on what trade they drummed up.

If their contracts are now adjusted to be bonus-dependent, that means they have got to ace it again. At the moment, investment bank revenue is on the slide as clients sit on their hands.

The last thing we want is a return to the culture that brought on the Financial Crisis of 15 years ago, the era of Madoff, Applegarth and Fred-the-Shred. We are hardly in a position to bail out financial institutions when we are expecting them to bail us out.

quote from https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/new...lease,of his and Liz Truss’s drive for growth.

 

[yorksrob]

If Conservative MP's have any sense of duty to the wider country at all, they will join in a vote of no confidence in parliament and precipitate a general election.

It is the only honourable thing they can do at this point.

 

[Mogster]

There's also the possibility that if they hand Labour the next election they'll have so much to clear up that popularity won't be high, so the Tories could get back at the following election as a form of long-term thinking. A number of swing seat MPs won't approve of this because they'll likely be out of a job, but safe Tory MPs are more likely to go along with it as they can stay in Parliament throughout.

I do indeed wonder whether the Tories are trying to deliberately lose, for this precise reason.

I do remember the same feeling from Labour with their response to defeat in 2010. There was an interview with John Prescott outside Westminster, he looked almost gleeful. Of course there was Liam Byrne’s famous note left in the Treasury Office.

Commentators at the time were saying that the economic policies necessary following the 2008 financial crisis would be extremely unpopular. There was a widespread belief that anyone implementing them would be so tainted they wouldn’t be in power again for a generation.