Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

I’m not sure everyone understands MAD…

 

[Sm5]

I think Kerch bridge is safer where it is.

think of chess moves, you remove the bridge, whats the counter response..
1. remove access from Poland
2. escalate sense of injustice amongst Russians who start getting a focal point
3. diversion route is Russia increasing and enforcing movements through Mariopol and the south.. making it harder to remove.

none of these are desirable actions for Ukraine the best outcome is driving out the last russian back over it.

Sinking the Moscow was in all sense perfect, from a chess perspective there is no counter move but taking a pawn.. Ukraine didnt have an equivalent piece for Russia to attack.

My concern is Russian has an unlimited supply of pawns, they simply dont care about people and are more than happy to throw bodies at the problem.

Russia won two campaigns by using bodies over technology in winter… how good is Himars in -30, when if you touch the metal you stick to it ?

 

[TheEdge]

My concern is Russian has an unlimited supply of pawns, they simply dont care about people and are more than happy to throw bodies at the problem.

Russia won two campaigns by using bodies over technology in winter… how good is Himars in -30, when if you touch the metal you stick to it ?

Yes but last time those bodies had motivation to fight. It seems like the patriotic fervour has dried up now that conscripts are being called up from across Russia.

 

[Giugiaro]

It seems like the patriotic fervour has dried up now that conscripts are being called up from across Russia.

From the looks of it, conscription is targeted instead of general.
It seems that Putin is using this "limited conscription" to remove undesirables, like ethnic minorities in remote regions of Russia.
EDIT: Dagestan is the most visible example.

 

[TheEdge]

From the looks of it, conscription is targeted instead of general.
It seems that Putin is using this "limited conscription" to remove undesirables, like ethnic minorities in remote regions of Russia.
EDIT: Dagestan is the most visible example.

Ah yes, the galaxy brain thinking of arming people who dislike the government.

That'll lead to a quality fighting force and no other problems at all.

 

[bspahh]

Russia won two campaigns by using bodies over technology in winter… how good is Himars in -30, when if you touch the metal you stick to it ?

How good is infantry in -30C when they can be tracked with thermal imaging cameras?

 

[Gloster]

I read that one of the groups exempted from the call up was bankers. So they are safe, so long as they keep away from sixth-floor windows.

 

[Annetts key]

How good is infantry in -30C when they can be tracked with thermal imaging cameras?

How much of an effective fighting force are a conscript army in -30C when they are short of fresh hot drinking water, hot food, warm clothing, dry warm feet…

 

[35B]

The U.S.A. has to respond to Russia using a nuclear weapon. If the U.S.A. does nothing, it sends completely the wrong signal to Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and any other country that has nuclear ideas…

It might be worth reading reviews of Max Hastings' book on the Cuban Missile Crisis (and, after Thursday, the book itself). It's very interesting just how poor the advice given to JFK was, especially by his generals - and how much of that advice was about how JFK should use force.

The are many ways to skin a cat, and just because one knows what a hammer is, doesn't mean a hammer is appropriate when looking at a woodscrew.

 

[Sm5]

Yes but last time those bodies had motivation to fight. It seems like the patriotic fervour has dried up now that conscripts are being called up from across Russia.

How good is infantry in -30C when they can be tracked with thermal imaging cameras?

How much of an effective fighting force are a conscript army in -30C when they are short of fresh hot drinking water, hot food, warm clothing, dry warm feet…

All very valid, in 2022 just as they were in 1942 and 1812.. Russia still prevailed.
Germans were abandoning their machinery for Russian equipment that started in any weather. Russians were being sent out to fight without weapons and asked to pick up a dead persons rifle infront of them and shot by their own if they didnt… will. 2022 be any different ?

Fighting in close quarters is always harder than with modern weaponry… so its important that it works in a Ukrainian winter…
I made a mistake once of going out in winter in the Ukrainian border area with wet hair.. only for a minute.
Maybe less, my hand stuck to my hair and when I pulled it the pieces of hair snapped off and remained stuck to my hand.

It didnt even feel that cold, no wind, dry, humid..but it only takes a few minutes to freeze your feet..hence your always dancing on them.. I found a piece of rubber floor mat and stood on it as long as I could, its the stone cold that gets you. Had to do that in the cold in February waiting for a covid test to return to the UK, nearly got frost bite, though I had a clear view of the 82nd airbornes flights arriving every 10 mins, I will do again in a few weeks when I go back out there.

 

[najaB]

Russians were being sent out to fight without weapons and asked to pick up a dead persons rifle infront of them and shot by their own if they didnt… will. 2022 be any different ?

The big difference there being that Russians were defending their homeland from invasion - which gives people a reason to want to fight to the end. Much like the Ukrainians in this war.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Just me that’s concerned and actually fairly worried now?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Just me that’s concerned and actually fairly worried now?

Don't stress about it. You're not the family member of a Russian who has been forcibly conscripted and sent to the front lines with no training and without proper equipment.

Most commentators right now suggest that Ukraine (who are fantastic at building trenches and other defensive fortifications) will simply mow them down in their thousands. Russia appears to be throwing infantry forces forward with zero support in/around Lyman, and they're taking tremendous amounts of losses as a result.

It really does look like the Russian plan is simply to try and overwhelm Ukraine with sheer numbers.

will. 2022 be any different ?

Yes. Ukraine is becoming increasingly well equipped and prepared for war, even down to making sure that the front lines have fuel and food supplies. The reports are that there's a very well functioning system of supplies to the front lines, so they can quite easily withstand -30c temperatures if needs be. However, the last few winters have been very mild in Poland, and the climate is broadly similar across Ukraine too.

 

[birchesgreen]

A Japanese consul in Russia was arrested, accused of espionage and tortured by the FSB. Russia really has lost the plot.

 

[TheEdge]

A Japanese consul in Russia was arrested, accused of espionage and tortured by the FSB. Russia really has lost the plot.

Oooh, Russo-Japanese War II. Looking forward to the sequel to the Battle of Tsushima.

 

[Giugiaro]

Imagine Russia fighting a war on two fronts.

Yeesh...

 

[Annetts key]

Imagine Russia fighting a war on two fronts.

Yeesh...

Could be three if a neighbour or part of Russian federation decides that’s it’s to it’s own advantage… But this risk may result in Russia having the difficulty of trying to keep troops in multiple different areas simultaneously at high alert, which further puts pressure on the logistics as well as spreading their forces even thinner…

 

[ainsworth74]

But this risk may result in Russia having the difficulty of trying to keep troops in multiple different areas simultaneously at high alert, which further puts pressure on the logistics as well as spreading their forces even thinner…

I don't think they have the troops, or at least the trained and equipped manpower, to actually do that. There's plenty of reports circulating that formations have been pulled from as far away as Khabarovsk which is actually further east than Vladivostok (though due to the Chinese border it's closer to Moscow by rail/road to be fair). It seems likely that they've stripped all but a handful of units from basically everywhere to send to Ukraine. If Japan wanted to retake the Kurils there's precious little the Russians could do to stop them right now. Equally if Finland decided they wanted Karelia back, please and thank you, what could the Russians do? Unless they've secretly reconstituted a fully equipped and trained 3rd Shock Army somewhere and haven't used it yet considering they're currently just hanging on in Ukraine someone else knocking on their door would finish them off I suspect.

 

[niggill617@gma]

Russia won two campaigns by using bodies over technology in winter… how good is Himars in -30, when if you touch the metal you stick to it ?

During WW2 Russian Offensive, I believe Zhukov had the benefit of Ultra project intelligence; via some elaborate deception plan set up from Bletchley Park?

 

[hst43102]

I don't think they have the troops, or at least the trained and equipped manpower, to actually do that. There's plenty of reports circulating that formations have been pulled from as far away as Khabarovsk which is actually further east than Vladivostok (though due to the Chinese border it's closer to Moscow by rail/road to be fair). It seems likely that they've stripped all but a handful of units from basically everywhere to send to Ukraine. If Japan wanted to retake the Kurils there's precious little the Russians could do to stop them right now. Equally if Finland decided they wanted Karelia back, please and thank you, what could the Russians do? Unless they've secretly reconstituted a fully equipped and trained 3rd Shock Army somewhere and haven't used it yet considering they're currently just hanging on in Ukraine someone else knocking on their door would finish them off I suspect.

I would think it very unlikely that Japan or Finland would actually invade "Russian" territory, even at this point in time. There's still the risk of nuclear retaliation.

 

[ainsworth74]

I would think it very unlikely that Japan or Finland would actually invade "Russian" territory, even at this point in time. There's still the risk of nuclear retaliation.

Oh yes of course, just illustrating the point

 

[Broucek]

I would think it very unlikely that Japan or Finland would actually invade "Russian" territory, even at this point in time. There's still the risk of nuclear retaliation.

That and the fact that it's not remotely normal behaviour in the modern world....

 

[najaB]

I would think it very unlikely that Japan or Finland would actually invade "Russian" territory, even at this point in time. There's still the risk of nuclear retaliation.

They might not invade, but certainly moving thousands of troops to the border and asking "About those negotiations..." might work a treat.

 

[kristiang85]

It seems the subsea Nord Stream pipeline has been sabotaged, potentially by a sub (Poland and Denmark have said the multiple leaks cannot be a coincidence). ]

More problems for Europe, if true.

Edit: Germany have now also said they suspect foul play.

 

[najaB]

It seems the subsea Nord Stream pipeline has been sabotaged, potentially by a sub (Poland and Denmark have said the multiple leaks cannot be a coincidence). ]

More problems for Europe, if true.

Edit: Germany have now also said they suspect foul play.

Would it be in Russia's interest to sabotage the pipeline? Can't see why they would, it's much easier for them to just continue to have 'pump trouble'.

 

[kristiang85]

Would it be in Russia's interest to sabotage the pipeline? Can't see why they would, it's much easier for them to just continue to have 'pump trouble'.

I cannot see why they would bother either, but maybe for a 'false flag'? Who knows.

The USA could also benefit...

 

[35B]

Would it be in Russia's interest to sabotage the pipeline? Can't see why they would, it's much easier for them to just continue to have 'pump trouble'.

Who said in their interest? But if they’re retreating into isolation, closing the pipelines helps draw down a new iron curtain.

 

[najaB]

Who said in their interest? But if they’re retreating into isolation, closing the pipelines helps draw down a new iron curtain.

Then publicly closing the pipeline would send a much more impactful message.

 

[35B]

Then publicly closing the pipeline would send a much more impactful message.

Indeed. But given that Kremlin politics seem a little, err, fluid right now, it might well be one of the factions around the government trying to influence policy rather than an exercise in policy.

 

[kristiang85]

The pipeline incident is probably going to become a serious story - it seems there is a massive hole in the pipeline, so an explosive device is the main suspect (although failure cannot be ruled out, it does seem somewhat coincidental, especially as its across both pipelines, as far as I understand).

The Danish government are holding an emergency meeting, as are the Swedes.

The videos of the leak site are quite extraordinary.

With Russia about to declare the "breakaway" areas as Russian, I get the feeling this is going to get politically messy very quickly.