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Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

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DelayRepay

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A General Election should be held within three months of a new PM taking over. In the meantime no budget or fiscal event should take place, neither should any legislation that was not in the manifesto of the previous PM’s election campaign be introduced. It would need a certain amount of care in the writing of the Act to avoid loopholes and, of course, a new PM could repeal the Act, as with the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
The problem is, if that was the case we'd now be waiting for a General Election. And therefore the government wouldn't have been able to intervene in energy pricing beyond the £400 that was announced under Boris Johnson.
 
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najaB

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The problem is, if that was the case we'd now be waiting for a General Election. And therefore the government wouldn't have been able to intervene in energy pricing beyond the £400 that was announced under Boris Johnson.
That's assuming that the Conservatives would have engaged in the five-month long process of choosing a new leader, knowing that a general election would have followed immediately afterwards, or that they would have taken as long as they did to get rid of Boris in the first place.

Had they known that they would have had to fight a GE, it's unlikely that he would have survived £600/roll wallpaper (remember that?!)
 

JamesT

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That's assuming that the Conservatives would have engaged in the five-month long process of choosing a new leader, knowing that a general election would have followed immediately afterwards, or that they would have taken as long as they did to get rid of Boris in the first place.

Had they known that they would have had to fight a GE, it's unlikely that he would have survived £600/roll wallpaper (remember that?!)
There's also the thing that General Elections don't come for free. https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-election-cost-140-million/
The U.K.’s snap general election in June cost the British taxpayer more than £140 million, according to figures released by the government Wednesday.
Plus you've got spending by the political parties on top of that. I'm sure I've seen articles about how the opposition may in public be goading the government to resign and call an election, but in private they're hoping the opposite as they can't afford to fight elections too often.

I think if you were forced to have a GE directly after replacing the PM, it might actually make the party less likely to dump the leader as the new one wouldn't have time to show what they were about. Both May and Johnson did call elections within a year of taking office. Whereas Major and Brown held out until the last moment after inheriting the position. (Though Major actually won his election).
 

SynthD

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Some protests around the funeral resulted in questionable arrests, under the new powers added to deal with Extinction Rebellion. Will the Tory voters react, demand a change? Truss, and likely the rest of cabinet, won’t care to fix this.
Adam Wagner’s Sunday Times article without the paywall.

Protest may be rude but it doesn’t merit arrest​


Adam Wagner

Sunday September 18 2022, 12.01am BST, The Sunday Times
‘The truth will set you free,” said Gloria Steinem, “but first it will piss you off.” Quite a few people felt that sentiment last week about protesters expressing republican views at events around the country. And those protesters have been equally perturbed by the proclamation of a new King.
The police have been caught in the middle and seem to have overreached. A woman in Edinburgh was charged with breach of the peace after holding up a sweary sign expressing republican sentiments, a man was arrested for shouting “Who elected him?” at a proclamation event in Oxford and — somewhat surreally — a barrister protesting outside parliament was threatened with arrest for holding a blank piece of paper, but only if he wrote “Not my King” on it.

Everyone agrees that freedom of speech is important. That’s easy. The difficulty is deciding how to manage protests in public spaces. Protests can be disruptive, offensive — even annoying. But the point of a protest is to get people’s attention. Sometimes that means being provocative.
“Rights worth having are unruly things,” Lord Justice Laws said in a case about protests against nuclear weapons. “Demonstrations and protests are liable to be a nuisance. They are liable to be inconvenient and tiresome, or at least perceived as such by others who are out of sympathy with them.” But, he said, the government’s “shoulders are surely broad enough to cope”.
Liberal societies need to have broad shoulders, because peaceful protest is often how ideas are challenged. We all benefit, even when this challenge happens at times of great public emotion. And that’s the problem with protesting against the monarchy — often the best opportunity to get people’s attention is during a family function. And whether it is a wedding or a funeral, the same objection arises: this isn’t the time. To which protesters respond: if not now, when?
To add to the complication, in the age of culture wars it is easy for people to confuse support for free speech with support for the cause of the protest itself. This is a mistake — if we don’t support the right of people to speak out on causes we disagree with, we can hardly complain when they don’t support us.
What are police to do? Being offensive or disrespectful isn’t against the law. The keystones should be violence and the threat of violence — if there is no likelihood of violence, police should leave well alone.
But this government has muddied the waters. Until this year the focus was on section 5 of the Public Order Act 1986, which prohibits using “threatening or abusive words or behaviour or disorderly behaviour” and displaying any writing, sign or visible representation that is “threatening or abusive”. There is a defence of “reasonable excuse”, which can include expressing your right to freedom of speech.
Now, added to that, is the new statutory offence of causing “public nuisance” in the Policing Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act, which can include causing “serious annoyance”. This provision, included to make it more difficult for mass movements such as Extinction Rebellion and Black Lives Matter to operate, is vague and moves our criminal law further from the laudable aim of preventing violence and closer to a point where the police become the arbiters of public decency.
This may stop some “annoying” protests going ahead, but in the most part it will serve only to increase tension between the police and citizens trying to express themselves. And this will be bad for everyone.
For my upcoming book, Emergency State, I examined the first two years of the pandemic through the more than 100 restrictive laws that locked down the country. During the summer of 2020 an exception to restrictions was permitted for outdoor socially distanced protest. But in the autumn, as cases began to climb, the exception was removed, apparently at the instruction of the home secretary.
Although protest was never explicitly banned, the Metropolitan Police behaved as if it was. That led to women being physically removed from the vigil after the death of Sarah Everard. This year the High Court ruled that the police’s actions had been unlawful, breaching the protesters’ right to freedom of assembly. The police, the court said, should have facilitated that right.
This is not what the police want to be doing. In my book I relate conversations with officers distressed by the strain of policing the pandemic. The only effect of increasing vague anti-free-speech laws is to put more pressure on the police and to fray the bond of trust with the public.
Police certainly shouldn’t be arresting people for holding up signs, even if they are a bit rude. People should be given latitude to express themselves if they are doing so peacefully. But I also think the police are between a rock and hard place, because of the state the government has left the law in. The monarchy is a fundamental part of our identity. So is the right to free speech. We can find a way to respect both — and that’s the truth.
Adam Wagner is a barrister at Doughty Street Chambers. His debut book, Emergency State: How We Lost Our Freedoms in the Pandemic and Why it Matters, is published on October 13 by Vintage
 
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JamesT

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Some protests around the funeral resulted in questionable arrests, under the new powers added to deal with Extinction Rebellion. Will the Tory voters react, demand a change? Truss, and likely the rest of cabinet, won’t care to fix this.
Adam Wagner’s Sunday Times article.
Has it been confirmed that any of the arrests were under the new powers? The one in Edinburgh clearly wasn’t, the guy in Oxford claims it was the new act but the statement by the police says the old public order act.
 

AlterEgo

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A General Election should be held within three months of a new PM taking over. In the meantime no budget or fiscal event should take place, neither should any legislation that was not in the manifesto of the previous PM’s election campaign be introduced.
We live in a Parliamentary democracy, not an executive presidency. The Prime Minister is appointed by the monarch under advice that they are able to command the support of Parliament. That is what matters.

It would need a certain amount of care in the writing of the Act to avoid loopholes and, of course, a new PM could repeal the Act, as with the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
Yes you’ve struck the issue in the face here. That you fundamentally propose changing the constitution of the country but by an Act of Parliament which could be immediately repealed. (Of course, Prime Ministers cannot repeal Acts, only Parliament can)
 

DynamicSpirit

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A quick bit of fact-checking strongly suggests that this is is scaremongering by the RSPB. A couple of things that a few moments following through the links reveal.

1. The Government have announced that 38 local authorities have agreed in principle to the creation of investment zones [Implied: In some unspecified locations] within those local authorities. Based on that, the RSPB have created a map showing the entire areas of those local authorities as being what the zones will cover.
2. The Government's announcement says, The need for planning applications will be minimised and where planning applications remain necessary, they will be radically streamlined. The RSPB have paraphrased this into Places where anything could be built anywhere. - which seems to me to be so far out from what the Government has stated as to amount to a direct lie by the RSPB.

Personally I'm all for protecting the environment, although I accept there does need to be a balance between the environment and our need to function as a society. But how about we wait and see what the Government are actually proposing to do, rather than attack strawmen based on misleading speculation?
 

yorksrob

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We live in a Parliamentary democracy, not an executive presidency. The Prime Minister is appointed by the monarch under advice that they are able to command the support of Parliament. That is what matters.


Yes you’ve struck the issue in the face here. That you fundamentally propose changing the constitution of the country but by an Act of Parliament which could be immediately repealed. (Of course, Prime Ministers cannot repeal Acts, only Parliament can)

That's lovely, but it doesn't reflect the reality of government today. A change of PM is as good as a change of government.
 

brad465

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A quick bit of fact-checking strongly suggests that this is is scaremongering by the RSPB. A couple of things that a few moments following through the links reveal.

1. The Government have announced that 38 local authorities have agreed in principle to the creation of investment zones [Implied: In some unspecified locations] within those local authorities. Based on that, the RSPB have created a map showing the entire areas of those local authorities as being what the zones will cover.
2. The Government's announcement says, The need for planning applications will be minimised and where planning applications remain necessary, they will be radically streamlined. The RSPB have paraphrased this into Places where anything could be built anywhere. - which seems to me to be so far out from what the Government has stated as to amount to a direct lie by the RSPB.

Personally I'm all for protecting the environment, although I accept there does need to be a balance between the environment and our need to function as a society. But how about we wait and see what the Government are actually proposing to do, rather than attack strawmen based on misleading speculation?
Considering the way the currency has just gone it's possible the said protected areas won't be concreted over because the investors who'd do that are not confident of good value for it. I also think there are a number of Tory MPs who are in (rural) constituencies that would be affected by what the RSPB are claiming that would oppose such development, or else go through the Chesham & Amersham experience. So yes, it's possible not much will actually result from this investment zone plan. That said even if the RSPB are over-egging the whole thing, they are a long established charity with Royal patronage, if they're expressing concern at this policy there must be something about it that goes against what their work aims to achieve.

On the last point about a balance between the environment and a functioning society, what we need more of really are buildings that incorporate nature within, such as green roofs and trees/shrubs incorporated into building designs (type "tree skyscraper" into Google images for an example of this point), and encouraging more natural gardens, rather than the US "green lawns", among other ideas for blending nature and urban development.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Considering the way the currency has just gone it's possible the said protected areas won't be concreted over because the investors who'd do that are not confident of good value for it. I also think there are a number of Tory MPs who are in (rural) constituencies that would be affected by what the RSPB are claiming that would oppose such development, or else go through the Chesham & Amersham experience. So yes, it's possible not much will actually result from this investment zone plan. That said even if the RSPB are over-egging the whole thing, they are a long established charity with Royal patronage, if they're expressing concern at this policy there must be something about it that goes against what their work aims to achieve
Yeah, the RSPB are an organisation that I've tended to have a lot of respect for. I think my respect for them has rather dropped on seeing that sequence of tweets though. I get that a big part of their purpose is to defend the habitat for birds, so they are inevitably going to be very defensive about that, but I do really take exception to people or groups effectively making stuff up that they can speak or campaign against instead of campaigning against what's actually happening (as you may have noticed from my posting record here ;) ). Sadly, my observation is that 'progressive' groups tend to do that a lot. Looks to me like, in this case, there is a valid possible concern that might become apparent once we know what the proposals are.

On the last point about a balance between the environment and a functioning society, what we need more of really are buildings that incorporate nature within, such as green roofs and trees/shrubs incorporated into building designs (type "tree skyscraper" into Google images for an example of this point), and encouraging more natural gardens, rather than the US "green lawns", among other ideas for blending nature and urban development.

You won't get any argument from me on that point. Great idea (assuming there isn't something I don't know that makes it not practical). Although I generally support the Tories, my biggest concern about them tends to be that they are weak on environmental protection. (Note to self: After yesterday: Add: And possible financial incompetence ;) ) Having said that, I don't think it's realistic to protect every last bit of green space when people do actually need places to live and work, so I suspect it would be impossible to keep groups like the RSPB completely happy.
 

Busaholic

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Yeah, the RSPB are an organisation that I've tended to have a lot of respect for. I think my respect for them has rather dropped on seeing that sequence of tweets though. I get that a big part of their purpose is to defend the habitat for birds, so they are inevitably going to be very defensive about that, but I do really take exception to people or groups effectively making stuff up that they can speak or campaign against instead of campaigning against what's actually happening (as you may have noticed from my posting record here ;) ). Sadly, my observation is that 'progressive' groups tend to do that a lot. Looks to me like, in this case, there is a valid possible concern that might become apparent once we know what the proposals are.
So the RSPB is a 'progressive' group? You'll be accusing them of being a bunch of socialists next! Anyway, do you prefer 'regressive' groups and, if so, which ones?
 

SynthD

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Normally the regressive groups are the think tanks welcoming these 1%er/‘Bush era’ tax cuts. This time I’m not sure anyone has managed to polish the turd.
 

brad465

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Yeah, the RSPB are an organisation that I've tended to have a lot of respect for. I think my respect for them has rather dropped on seeing that sequence of tweets though. I get that a big part of their purpose is to defend the habitat for birds, so they are inevitably going to be very defensive about that, but I do really take exception to people or groups effectively making stuff up that they can speak or campaign against instead of campaigning against what's actually happening (as you may have noticed from my posting record here ;) ). Sadly, my observation is that 'progressive' groups tend to do that a lot. Looks to me like, in this case, there is a valid possible concern that might become apparent once we know what the proposals are.
The tone certainly isn't welcoming, but I do wonder if they're trying to be proactive (i.e. better to warn about something bad that ultimately doesn't happen than wait for something bad to happen then complain when it's too late) in the hope that others will step up before what they warn about is done (they have suggested readers contact all their MPs on this).

What I can see happening is some developments are approved that are in line with what is being highlighted by the RSPB, but that they cause very vocal opposition, including from Tory MPs who dominate rural constituencies, and further plans of a similar type don't get anywhere. Otherwise the Lib Dems will have a campaigning field day (or several days) for any future by-election before 2024/5 and come the General Election itself.



== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

In other news it sounds like Liz Truss' Chief of Staff (who was questioned by the FBI as a witness in an alleged bribery case) is essentially a lobbyist masquerading as Chief of Staff, according to The Sunday Times:


EXCL: Liz Truss chief of staff is being paid his salary via his lobbying firm and is only "seconded" to No10 in arrangement he won't explain Mark Fullbrook says he's not using company for tax benefit days after govt junked IR35 reforms to make this easier
 
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DerekC

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== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

In other news it sounds like Liz Truss' Chief of Staff (who was questioned by the FBI as a witness in an alleged bribery case) is essentially a lobbyist masquerading as Chief of Staff, according to The Sunday Times:

As I understand it the Chief of Staff (despite the name) is actually the most senior special advisor (SPAD) and therefore always a political appointment. So I guess that a Crosbie lookalike in the role is not a surprise. As to why he is paid through his lobbying company rather than a civil service salary under PAYE like other SPADs - well, No 10 says that it's not for tax saving reasons, so you can draw your own conclusions!
 

Mojo

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Kier Starmer said that he would restore the 45% top rate but would retain the 19% basic rate.
 

DarloRich

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The Tories and thier chums are laughing all the way to the bank while many in society are rushing to food banks.

Shows the priorities for them. It isnt you and me
 

Yew

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I was reading an article on the BBC that said:

The Truss government believes growing the size of the economic cake is more important than how it is divided up - in other words, redistribution is no solution to our economic woes.

And I have to say, I completely disagree with this assessment, there's no clear link between taxes on the highest earners and growth. The Tories have pulled another "northern powerhouse" by saying that they're going to invest heavily in Britain, but in fact giving token sums whilst giving tax breaks to the wealthy.
 

Cdd89

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Kier Starmer said that he would restore the 45% top rate but would retain the 19% basic rate.
Not to toot my own trumpet, but I do wonder if I was right in my prediction that this move was to temper the scale of future Labour increases. It’s hard to imagine Starmer getting away with leaving the additional rate at 45% if the Tories hadn’t scrapped it first.

My other thought is that the basic rate is actually a giveaway to higher earners, due to the personal allowance making it already progressive, the fact that it continues to be paid up to quite a high income (50k), and the tapering effect from 100k meaning more basic rate becomes payable (50k worth instead of 37.5k).
 

nw1

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A quick bit of fact-checking strongly suggests that this is is scaremongering by the RSPB. A couple of things that a few moments following through the links reveal.

1. The Government have announced that 38 local authorities have agreed in principle to the creation of investment zones [Implied: In some unspecified locations] within those local authorities. Based on that, the RSPB have created a map showing the entire areas of those local authorities as being what the zones will cover.
2. The Government's announcement says, The need for planning applications will be minimised and where planning applications remain necessary, they will be radically streamlined. The RSPB have paraphrased this into Places where anything could be built anywhere. - which seems to me to be so far out from what the Government has stated as to amount to a direct lie by the RSPB.

Personally I'm all for protecting the environment, although I accept there does need to be a balance between the environment and our need to function as a society. But how about we wait and see what the Government are actually proposing to do, rather than attack strawmen based on misleading speculation?

But to me:

"The need for planning applications will be minimised and where planning applications remain necessary, they will be radically streamlined"

sounds very, very, worrying.

It could be re-phrased as:

"Don't worry if your proposals will wipe out a colony of rare birds, or take away valuable green space for people to go walking. We'll drastically lessen the checks that need to be done to ensure development doesn't harm the environment".

Of course philistines like Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng don't give a damn. And personally I trust the RSPB much more than the likes of those two.

Why would the RSPB lie if they're not worried? Recent history has shown that the post-2016 Conservative Party are quite prepared to take away things from us in order to gain or preserve power. And having removed our automatic right to emigrate to the continent, I'm afraid I don't trust them not to remove large areas of our green space.

I do suspect that if this is tried on, there will be big protests, and rightfully so. And not just from the left and the Greens, but also from "traditional", Heath/Macmillan style Conservatives, the sort that live in the countryside and value their green space. An unlikely combination of left-wing protest groups and the Countryside Alliance!
 
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Cdd89

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I see it’s been reported that the tapering of the personal allowance is likely to go as well:

Workers who earn more than £100,000 would be given a full income tax personal allowance, under plans that amount to a tax break worth up to £5,000 a year to the highest earners.

While this is great news and long overdue, it clearly needs to be paired with a change in the rates/thresholds.
 

takno

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Not to toot my own trumpet, but I do wonder if I was right in my prediction that this move was to temper the scale of future Labour increases. It’s hard to imagine Starmer getting away with leaving the additional rate at 45% if the Tories hadn’t scrapped it first.

My other thought is that the basic rate is actually a giveaway to higher earners, due to the personal allowance making it already progressive, the fact that it continues to be paid up to quite a high income (50k), and the tapering effect from 100k meaning more basic rate becomes payable (50k worth instead of 37.5k).
That isn't how the taper works unless I've badly miscalculated. AIUI the width of the basic band is fixed, and you effectively pay 40% on the tapered amount.
 

nw1

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I see it’s been reported that the tapering of the personal allowance is likely to go as well:



While this is great news and long overdue, it clearly needs to be paired with a change in the rates/thresholds.

Is it great news?

Tax cuts are, to my mind, moronic, imbecilic nonsense.

As far as I'm concerned Truss can shove her tax cuts where the sun don't shine. Last thing I want, and I'm sure many others, are the brutal spending cuts in two or three years which will be the inevitable consequence of this.
 

Yew

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Is it great news?

Tax cuts are, to my mind, moronic, imbecilic nonsense.

As far as I'm concerned Truss can shove her tax cuts where the sun don't shine. Last thing I want, and I'm sure many others, are the brutal spending cuts in two or three years which will be the inevitable consequence of this.
Presumably the rich must be really struggling, how on earth can they be elected to survive on only 100K?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

An interesting change of pace from the Conservatives, maybe it wasn't the EU all along...


Liz Truss is expected to loosen immigration rules in an attempt to stimulate economic growth amid warnings of a recession.The prime minister is set to expand the government’s shortage occupation list in order to help businesses fill vacancies by recruiting overseas workers with less bureaucracy.Truss has faced industry demands for more migrant workers to be given visas to come to the UK with labour shortages one of the main concerns voiced by employers across a range of sectors.
 

takno

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Is it great news?

Tax cuts are, to my mind, moronic, imbecilic nonsense.

As far as I'm concerned Truss can shove her tax cuts where the sun don't shine. Last thing I want, and I'm sure many others, are the brutal spending cuts in two or three years which will be the inevitable consequence of this.
The taper is an absolute mess just because it creates a weird 60% tax band in the middle of the 40% band. It would have made more sense to achieve broadly the same thing by making the 45% band start at 90-100k. Unfortunately Osborne was more focused on a big headline than a sensible policy, so we are where we are.

Given that the 45% rate is being abolished entirely, the only sensible resolution to the taper is being taken away. On balance I'd rather keep it than abolish it entirely, but I don't think there's anything I want or am happy about in this budget.
 

Cdd89

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That isn't how the taper works unless I've badly miscalculated. AIUI the width of the basic band is fixed, and you effectively pay 40% on the tapered amount.
The taper eliminates the personal allowance, so my understanding is that the basic rate is incurred, ie tax is incurred from the bottom, in addition to the marginal rate. So 40% + 19%. It’s possible I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure I’m not (especially since I pay it :s)

Edit: based on your post above, I think we are on the same page, so probably a failure of communication rather than understanding! :smile:

Tax cuts are, to my mind, moronic, imbecilic nonsense. As far as I'm concerned Truss can shove her tax cuts where the sun don't shine
I can only think you have misunderstood how the personal allowance taper works, since I can’t understand how anyone can defend a lower marginal rate for someone on £125,000+ than someone on £100,000—£124,999.
 

nw1

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I can only think you have misunderstood how the personal allowance taper works, since I can’t understand how anyone can defend a lower marginal rate for someone on £125,000+ than someone on £100,000—£124,999.

Probably did, sorry. However, I saw the comment suggesting tax cuts for those on £100,000+ and that rang alarm bells to me, as why would people earning that kind of money need any cuts at all?

Add to that my increasing concern about the politics of the post-Johnson government in general.
 

Cdd89

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Probably did, sorry. However, I saw the comment suggesting tax cuts for those on £100,000+ and that rang alarm bells to me, as why would people earning that kind of money need any cuts at all?
I can’t blame you for that impression, which is probably why it’s stuck around for so long.

I agree with the point, which is why I stared in my OP that:
it clearly needs to be paired with a change in the rates/thresholds.
…in order to ensure revenue neutrality and to ensure that the richest aren’t in fact getting a tax cut :smile:
 

JamesT

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…in order to ensure revenue neutrality and to ensure that the richest aren’t in fact getting a tax cut :smile:
I’ve seen some complaints about the threshold freeze being left in place rather than growing with inflation which will increase tax take.
 
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