Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

[brad465]

So what’s causing the fall in the euro against the dollar then? Are their economies also faltering permanently?

That's also because global neoliberalism failed for the 3rd time in 14 years (1st 2008, 2nd 2020).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The issue isn't the Euro but Sterling.

(But, since you ask, it's the war in Ukraine)

So in your analysis, the war in Ukraine is causing problems for the Euro, but isn't having the slightest affect on the UK economy or on the value of the £?

 

[Perthsaint]

So in your analysis, the war in Ukraine is causing problems for the Euro, but isn't having the slightest affect on the UK economy or on the value of the £?

My analysis is that brexiters will always try to deflect from the damage they've done. Why do they do that?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That's also because global neoliberalism failed for the 3rd time in 14 years (1st 2008, 2nd 2020).

If the problem is 'global neoliberalism' then how come it's affecting the Euro but not the $?

And in what way did neoliberalism fail in 2020? I seem to recall the problems of that year were caused by a certain pandemic - nothing to do with the economic system.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Sep 2022 ==

My analysis is that brexiters will always try to deflect from the damage they've done. Why do they do that?

How about you answer my question? To remind you: So in your analysis, the war in Ukraine is causing problems for the Euro, but isn't having the slightest affect on the UK economy or on the value of the £?

 

[Perthsaint]

If the problem is 'global neoliberalism' then how come it's affecting the Euro but not the $?

And in what way did neoliberalism fail in 2020? I seem to recall the problems of that year were caused by a certain pandemic - nothing to do with the economic system.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Sep 2022 ==



How about you answer my question? To remind you: So in your analysis, the war in Ukraine is causing problems for the Euro, but isn't having the slightest affect on the UK economy or on the value of the £?

Any effect of the war in the Ukraine on the UK economy or the value of sterling is miniscule compared to the impact of brexit on those things. Now, why do brexiters refuse to take responsibility for their actions?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Any effect of the war in the Ukraine on the UK economy or the value of sterling is miniscule compared to the impact of brexit on those things. Now, why do brexiters refuse to take responsibility for their actions?

Really? So, in your world, the cost-of-energy crisis is 'minuscule'? I'm sure people struggling to pay their gas/electricity bills will be very happy to learn that.

It's nothing to do Brexiters refusing to take responsibility. It's to do with allocating responsibility appropriately. Brexit undoubtedly was the main/sole cause of the fall in the value of the £ that occurred around 2016-2017, leaving it around $1.30ish to the £. Since then it's been fairly stable (other than short term fluctuations) against the $ - right through the Brexit process until additional falls hit over the last couple of months, for which the most likely cause is the war in Ukraine hitting UK/European economies. And the massive falls today are very obviously caused by the UK Government's (IMO, totally reckless) mini-budget. To try to blame that on Brexit speaks of an unwillingness to live in the real World.

 

[Perthsaint]

Really? So, in your world, the cost-of-energy crisis is 'minuscule'? I'm sure people struggling to pay their gas/electricity bills will be very happy to learn that.

It's nothing to do Brexiters refusing to take responsibility. It's to do with allocating responsibility appropriately. Brexit undoubtedly was the main/sole cause of the fall in the value of the £ that occurred around 2016-2017, leaving it around $1.30ish to the £. Since then it's been fairly stable (other than short term fluctuations) against the $ - right through the Brexit process until additional falls hit over the last couple of months, for which the most likely cause is the war in Ukraine hitting UK/European economies. And the massive falls today are very obviously caused by the UK Government's (IMO, totally reckless) mini-budget. To try to blame that on Brexit speaks of an unwillingness to live in the real World.

You don't seem to understand that brexit has a continual and cumulative impact. This will continue until we rejoin the EU.

Why is the fuel crisis so severe? Fuel is priced on dollars. How is sterling performing against the dollar? Badly. Why is this? Brexit.

 

[brad465]

If the problem is 'global neoliberalism' then how come it's affecting the Euro but not the $?

Because the US is "the daddy" in the system, so where everyone runs to for safety when the "storm" hits, and the US is not where the major crises in the world are right now. That said the Euro has many problems that recent economic crashes have exposed, and one currency stretching over a large bloc with very different economies is not a good idea. The UK could have shown the Eurozone up for these flaws, but having an economy that is overly-driven by services and speculation more than actual productivity hasn't helped our currency.

And in what way did neoliberalism fail in 2020? I seem to recall the problems of that year were caused by a certain pandemic - nothing to do with the economic system.

It didn't fail in the same way as 2008, and I do think our response to covid was OTT, I'll give you those. But aspects of the complex system in question, in particular the globalisation aspect, lack of regulations and lack of consideration for the environment all caused and/or worsened the pandemic. Our over-reliance on China and the extreme attitudes of the CCP contributed to the wider system struggles, and outsourcing all our manufacturing to them was further exposed as a naïve when they decided to shut down industries in covid lockdowns. We should have intervened more at home to ensure essential production was maintained to an extent at home and/or in more trustworthy states, rather than letting the market decide China/one country with a dodgy regime was best for almost everything.

Then going onto the origins of the pandemic, our poor attitude to the environment appears to have helped start it off (yes the CCP appearing to cover it up played a big part, as per the previous point), but poor animal trading/welfare and encroachment into habitat spaces is a major risk factor in new pathogens emerging. This links back to "global neoliberalism" because it does not really consider environmental impacts (though to be fair, neither classic socialism, communism, feudalism or any other system in use today or the past considered that either). This is where I'd favour a new system that has protecting/supporting the environment as a defining principle of its function. Economic systems have more impacts on society than are immediately obvious, especially in our very interconnected world.

 

[Cowley]

You don't seem to understand that brexit has a continual and cumulative impact. This will continue until we rejoin the EU.

I think you’re assuming that we haven’t gone over this time and time again on here (bearing in mind that you only joined the forum a few weeks ago - welcome by the way ) and haven’t taken all of this into account?

It’s a huge factor amongst unfortunately many other huge factors. It isn’t the only cause though…

Perhaps it might be better to take that discussion into this rather hefty thread:

Brexit matters

I cannot find an open Brexit thread on the website so have opened this one for all and sundry to use.

railforums.co.uk

 

[Perthsaint]

I think you’re assuming that we haven’t gone over this time and time again on here (bearing in mind that you only joined the forum a few weeks ago - welcome by the way ) and haven’t taken all of this into account?

It’s a huge factor amongst unfortunately many other huge factors. It isn’t the only cause though…

Perhaps it might be better to take that discussion into this rather hefty thread:

Brexit matters

I cannot find an open Brexit thread on the website so have opened this one for all and sundry to use.

railforums.co.uk

Thank you for the welcome and, yes, I am sure it's all been done before. Unfortunately brexiters are poor learners.

I'll have a peek into that thread. Perhaps not tonight though.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

You don't seem to understand that brexit has a continual and cumulative impact. This will continue until we rejoin the EU.

That's not how the mathematics of a continual impact work. In 2016-2017, Brexit caused the £ to drop to around $1.30ish. If Brexit had only had a transient effect, then you would have subsequently seen the £ rise back up to the pre-referendum level. It didn't: It remained at the level that Brexit had caused it to fall to. That's the continual impact of Brexit: The new lower value stays permanently - until something else happens to change it. Over the last year those something elses have happened (energy crisis and then war in Ukraine affecting Europe much more than the US for the obvious reason that we are geographically closer and were more dependent on Russian energy), followed today by that mini-budget, and have caused the latest falls in the £.

(And yes, seeing @Cowley's post, yes is is probably getting into the wrong discussion for this thread).

 

[brad465]

What also I think needs to be said is that whenever there's a global crisis, this attitude of whataboutism is not helpful (especially at politician level, but also throughout society), and if the energy being spent on comparing ourselves to those who are in a worse/as bad state was directed towards actually finding a solution to said crisis, the whole crisis would be over much sooner and we'd all be better off as result.

For example, if FDR decided to pass off The Great Depression as a global crisis and as a result claimed there was little he could do, rather than what he actually did which was his "New Deal" agenda, then there's every chance the Depression would have been worse, longer lasting, and maybe even the US would have gone down a similar path to the European states that were taken over by fascists (but that's largely speculation).

 

[Cowley]

Thank you for the welcome and, yes, I am sure it's all been done before. Unfortunately brexiters are poor learners.

I'll have a peek into that thread. Perhaps not tonight though.

Yes definitely one to sleep on.

I’ve always been of the opinion that we all have a certain amount of centre ground that we can agree on.

Noting the post by @DynamicSpirit above I think I’m going to go to bed now and I’m sure that everything will be much much better in the morning (it usually is)…

 

[Cowley]

Usually

 

[nw1]

I highly doubt it although let's see the reaction from the right-leaning press tomorrow morning. There's a small chance that it could focus minds.

I note (from the headlines, not reading the articles) that the Telegraph and Times appear to be somewhat sceptical, and mention the word "gamble", if I remember correctly.

The far-right press aka the Mail and Express are all over it. "At last, a True Tory Budget" went (I think) the Express.

Yet the same papers were also all over Osborne's austerity, which was the opposite extreme to Truss-Kwarteng Casinos Ltd (a subsidiary of the Unchained Group plc).

More evidence that the Mail and Express appear to always brown-nose the Tories, no matter what the actual policies are.

 

[jon0844]

I guess "At last, a True Tory Budget" can be interpreted in different ways, so they are nicely sitting on the fence.

 

[brad465]

I guess "At last, a True Tory Budget" can be interpreted in different ways, so they are nicely sitting on the fence.

This particular line is highlighting the double standards of certain commentators who were falling over themselves to defend Boris Johnson, but are now falling over themselves to say what you just quoted. If they really wanted a Tory budget much earlier they could have tried harder to demand Sunak do it or force Johnson to sack him in favour of someone who would.

 

[jon0844]

These days, the phrase 'there's always a Tweet' is very apt because you can easily see the double standards as clear as day - whether about the economy, fracking, Brexit, the Queen, Prince/King Charles etc.

As for Sunak, despite him being the lesser of two evils, it's pretty clear the members who got the final vote weren't sure about him for reasons other than his ability. I can't qwhite put my finger on it though.

 

[Western Sunset]

I just don't understand their economic strategy at all; full stop. Unless LT and KK are foreign moles...

 

[jon0844]

I just don't understand their economic strategy at all; full stop. Unless LT and KK are foreign moles...

I think they were 'backed' by the ERG, and it's said that they have been promised success if they just do as they're told. It seems Boris was very much in the same position. The party has been effectively taken over by people who were unelected and aren't part of the political system.

Some people* will sell their soul for power and money, and Liz Truss is a perfect example of someone who has totally changed their views.. while Kwasi Kwarteng was once against fracking but now thinks it's the best thing ever (and is clearly lying about a) it saving us money and b) happening soon enough to make any difference).

* I guess everyone has their price these days. After all, the current thinking is that if you don't have money you must have failed in life - so if you can grift and make a few quid, good on you.

 

[Typhoon]

I note (from the headlines, not reading the articles) that the Telegraph and Times appear to be somewhat sceptical, and mentioning the word "gamble", if I remember correctly.

You do. And perhaps, as importantly, the FT has 'Pound slumps below $1.09 after Kwarteng's £45 billion tax cut gamble.'

Caveat with the Telegraph. Alistair Heath (wasn't he at City AM) writes a front cover piece headlined "Britain back at its boldest: this revolutionary Budget adds up to the greatest I have ever seen". Certainly not sitting on the fence there. I would be interested to know if the average Telegraph reader agrees.

The far-right press aka the Mail and Express are all over it. "At last, a True Tory Budget" went (I think) the Express.

It's the Mail - in something like 128point type with 'True' underlined. The Express runs with 'We've got the 'Courage to bet big' on Britain. Isn't 'Courage' or 'Courageous' a Sir Humphrey word?

I just don't understand their economic strategy at all; full stop. Unless LT and KK are foreign moles...

It's the same strategy used by someone who has lost a few hundred quid on the slots with a few coins in their pocket but knows that it must pay out sometime. It's a gamble - sometimes they pay off. The difference is that Kwarteng is playing with your money and mine.

 

[najaB]

The Express runs with 'We've got the 'Courage to bet big' on Britain.

I'd really rather that the government wasn't in the habit of gambling with the country's future.

 

[Western Sunset]

When I did subsidiary economics as part of my first degree, I never heard of the "Make-it-up-as-you-go-along" economic theory.

 

[Yew]

I'd really rather that the government wasn't in the habit of gambling with the country's future.

When you're betting on the Casino of the London financial sector, I can think of no more accurate term.

 

[DC1989]

How this government have the brass balls to call themselves Pro business while restricting access to the single market can only be described as absurd. They are gaslighting us

 

[yorksrob]

Perhaps there needs to be a constitutional change to the effect that a general election is held whenever there is a new prime minister. The electorate didn't endorse this crazy plan.

 

[Gloster]

Perhaps there needs to be a constitutional change to the effect that a general election is held whenever there is a new prime minister. The electorate didn't endorse this crazy plan.

A General Election should be held within three months of a new PM taking over. In the meantime no budget or fiscal event should take place, neither should any legislation that was not in the manifesto of the previous PM’s election campaign be introduced. It would need a certain amount of care in the writing of the Act to avoid loopholes and, of course, a new PM could repeal the Act, as with the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

 

[yorksrob]

A General Election should be held within three months of a new PM taking over. In the meantime no budget or fiscal event should take place, neither should any legislation that was not in the manifesto of the previous PM’s election campaign be introduced. It would need a certain amount of care in the writing of the Act to avoid loopholes and, of course, a new PM could repeal the Act, as with the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

True, but I think that once it became embedded in precedent, it would be politically difficult to repeal it (unlike the fixed term parliament act, which not many people are interested in).

In the interests of neutrality, I think a lot of people wanted a GE when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair, so I think the change would be popular across the board.

 

[Western Sunset]

I'm looking forward to seeing how the Conservative Party manage their upcoming conference...

 

[Busaholic]

If this was the Quasi Kwarteng, imagine what might happen if the real one came along!