Russia invades Ukraine

[Pete_uk]

Does this twitter link work?

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1568563472048193536?t=_CqS18ZU2YtKgq83pa-tLQ&s=19

Links to a video of a Russian tank fleeing...

 

[Annetts key]

Does this twitter link work?

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1568563472048193536?t=_CqS18ZU2YtKgq83pa-tLQ&s=19

Links to a video of a Russian tank fleeing...

Yes, that is quite amusing (don’t forget to click on the video so you get the sound). However, keep in mind that the Russians falling from the tank have come under machine gun fire from the Ukrainian soldiers. And some of the Ukrainians are being shot at by a gun in or on the tank.
I don’t know what speed the tank was doing when it stops, but I do know that the Russians inside will not have enjoyed being thrown violently around in a tank full of hard surfaces. No air bags to protect you in a Russian tank… I certainly don’t fancy head butting a steel plate at 30MPH!

Suchomimus has done an analysis on his YouTube channel, link. Do read the comments section

 

[Giugiaro]

I knew Ukraine would start giving back trouble to Russia.

But for the Russians to pull a second Blitzrückzug...

 

[uglymonkey]

In WW2, Russia used to retreat rapidly (they've got a big country after all) then regroup and come back hard. I hope this isn't the case now.

 

[DustyBin]

In WW2, Russia used to retreat rapidly (they've got a big country after all) then regroup and come back hard. I hope this isn't the case now.

It’s a completely different situation, fortunately. During WWII Russia retreated, regrouped, rearmed and allowed the winter to do it’s worst. In this conflict they’re low on personnel, low on (quality) equipment and are the invading force; I can’t see them coming back from this to be honest. They’re not fighting for survival this time either of course……

 

[gg1]

In WW2, Russia used to retreat rapidly (they've got a big country after all) then regroup and come back hard. I hope this isn't the case now.

The two major differences then was Russia (or rather the Soviet Union), spent much of the war fighting on their own territory against a foreign invader (so benefitting from a generally friendly local populace and far higher troop morale) and was in receipt of considerable material aid from western allies.

The Soviet Union situation in WW2 is far more comparable to Ukraine's in 2022 than Russia's.

 

[Cloud Strife]

One interesting thing is how Russia appears to be throwing everything at holding Lyman currently, while they've fled from other strategically important areas. They've managed to hold out there, although there's an obvious media blackout on the part of both sides.

The suggestions I've seen on Twitter are that Ukraine is concentrating on encircling Lyman while offering the Russian forces a chance to surrender, but it seems that neither side has the upper hand there.

In the south, there are reports that the Ukrainian forces are making a small amount of movement towards Melitopol too.

But I think the most important thing is that Armenia has been attacked too. According to the CSTO rules, this should be considered an attack on Russia. Yet there's silence from Russia, and I suspect that the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh may no longer exist within a few weeks if the Azeris sense that Russia simply won't come to Armenia's aid.

 

[najaB]

Yet there's silence from Russia, and I suspect that the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh may no longer exist within a few weeks if the Azeris sense that Russia simply won't come to Armenia's aid.

That is entirely possible. Russia's military has been critically weakened by this debacle in Ukraine and can easily see things kicking off in Chechnya soon as well.

 

[TheEdge]

That is entirely possible. Russia's military has been critically weakened by this debacle in Ukraine and can easily see things kicking off in Chechnya soon as well.

I think Ramzan Kadyrov with his quote a few days ago about it being "very interesting" was only a hairs breadth away from being a threat to Putin.

 

[najaB]

I think Ramzan Kadyrov with his quote a few days ago about it being "very interesting" was only a hairs breadth away from being a threat to Putin.

There are quite a few frozen conflicts in the CSTO region which have the potential of heating up, now that the Russian army has been found to be wanting.

 

[brad465]

One interesting thing is how Russia appears to be throwing everything at holding Lyman currently, while they've fled from other strategically important areas. They've managed to hold out there, although there's an obvious media blackout on the part of both sides.

The suggestions I've seen on Twitter are that Ukraine is concentrating on encircling Lyman while offering the Russian forces a chance to surrender, but it seems that neither side has the upper hand there.

In the south, there are reports that the Ukrainian forces are making a small amount of movement towards Melitopol too.

Melitopol is reported to be seeing a large area of partisan warfare against the occupiers; if the Ukraine army can reach this area they could have a very easy fight to the coast thereafter.

But I think the most important thing is that Armenia has been attacked too. According to the CSTO rules, this should be considered an attack on Russia. Yet there's silence from Russia, and I suspect that the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh may no longer exist within a few weeks if the Azeris sense that Russia simply won't come to Armenia's aid.

That is entirely possible. Russia's military has been critically weakened by this debacle in Ukraine and can easily see things kicking off in Chechnya soon as well.

The West needs to prepare for the fall of the "Russian empire" big time. If the late Gorbachev is considered bad/evil for allowing the USSR to collapse, goodness knows how Putin will be seen if large parts of Russia break up.

 

[Pete_uk]

It's interesting that people are now going on TV and saying how the Ukrainians are pushing Russia out and not sticking to a 'all it fine' line.

 

[najaB]

There's no way to know for sure if this is genuine or not, but if it is - it could go a long way to explaining the Russian collapse of the last week or so. Morale among the Russian soldiers is rock bottom:

 

[Cloud Strife]

So, it looks like the Russian forces managed to escape with only a few hundred captured, but at the cost of leaving behind a tremendous amount of equipment and weapons. It's bad news for Russia, because they've effectively given the Ukrainian forces a huge injection of heavy weaponry for free. I find it insane that they didn't even blow up what they left behind, which means that their morale and will to fight must be rock bottom.

But what is really interesting: what, exactly, is Ukraine using? They're hitting targets repeatedly in Crimea and in Russia that are beyond the range of what has been supplied to them, and they're doing it frequently. They've even hit Rostov-on-Don, which means that the Kerch Bridge will be within range if they take Melitopol.

Another sign that Russia is in trouble: Crimean men are now prohibited from leaving Crimea, unless they have permission from the local military authorities. Men are also leaving Melitopol, which suggests that people simply have no confidence in the Russian forces ability to fight without doing what they've done in the so-called "LDPR", that is forcibly conscript men of all ages.

Melitopol is the logical next place to attack for the Ukrainian forces, which makes me think that they're likely to do something that no-one is predicting.

But first and foremost, the inability and refusal of Russia to help Armenia despite the mutual defence pact in place is hugely significant. It's now very clear that Armenia is under attack, and Russia is completely powerless. I wouldn't be surprised if Kazakhstan now leaves the CSTO, and I wouldn't be hugely shocked if we see a Turkish-Azeri-Kazakh bloc in the future with their weapons aimed at Russia.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

So, it looks like the Russian forces managed to escape with only a few hundred captured, but at the cost of leaving behind a tremendous amount of equipment and weapons. It's bad news for Russia, because they've effectively given the Ukrainian forces a huge injection of heavy weaponry for free. I find it insane that they didn't even blow up what they left behind, which means that their morale and will to fight must be rock bottom.

According to tonight's main BBC news Ukraine is claiming that the amount of equipment/munitions left behind by the Russians more than makes up for what they have lost so far! Now there is doubtless some propaganda at play here but it's not the sort of thing we would once have expected to hear about in relation to the Russian military.

 

[TheEdge]

At this point it feels like we are somehow watching the fall of the USSR, again.

Well done Vlad.

 

[Yew]

But what is really interesting: what, exactly, is Ukraine using? They're hitting targets repeatedly in Crimea and in Russia that are beyond the range of what has been supplied to them, and they're doing it frequently. They've even hit Rostov-on-Don, which means that the Kerch Bridge will be within range if they take Melitopol.

Before the invasion, Ukraine had extremely limited stocks of old soviet systems. They were kept in reserve for very special occasions, but now with systems like HIMARS, they are being more liberal with their usage.

Unfortunately, for the life of me, I cannot remember the name.

 

[ainsworth74]

Before the invasion, Ukraine had extremely limited stocks of old soviet systems. They were kept in reserve for very special occasions, but now with systems like HIMARS, they are being more liberal with their usage.

Unfortunately, for the life of me, I cannot remember the name.

You'll be thinking of Tochka (SS-21 in NATO parlance) which is a short range ballastic missile that Ukraine operate and do appear to have used. My money is still on Ukraine having gotten the indigenous Hrim-2 short range ballastic missile into service (perhaps with some Western advice on any niggles) and they're making use of them on key targets. Between the two systems that would give them capability to hit targets in Russia and occupied Crimea without needing NATO weapons.

 

[DustyBin]

Before the invasion, Ukraine had extremely limited stocks of old soviet systems. They were kept in reserve for very special occasions, but now with systems like HIMARS, they are being more liberal with their usage.

Unfortunately, for the life of me, I cannot remember the name.

Are you thinking of the OTR-21 Tochka? I’m not sure what version(s) Ukraine possess but they have a range of up to 115 miles.

Edit: beaten to it!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Sep 2022 ==

You'll be thinking of Tochka (SS-21 in NATO parlance) which is a short range ballastic missile that Ukraine operate and do appear to have used. My money is still on Ukraine having gotten the indigenous Hrim-2 short range ballastic missile into service (perhaps with some Western advice on any niggles) and they're making use of them on key targets. Between the two systems that would give them capability to hit targets in Russia and occupied Crimea without needing NATO weapons.

Your money or the Saudi’s money?

I’m inclined to agree with you, this seems the most likely explanation.

 

[ainsworth74]

Your money or the Saudi’s money?

Well, my metaphorical money

Though the Saudis put their actual money into China. They operate a couple of different types of Chinese intermediate range ballastic missile.

 

[DustyBin]

Well, my metaphorical money

Though the Saudis put their actual money into China. They operate a couple of different types of Chinese intermediate range ballastic missile.

So are the rumours that they financed the development of Hrim-2 just that then? I honestly don’t know incidentally, it’s just what was reported at the time and doesn’t seem particularly unlikely, to me anyway.

 

[ainsworth74]

So are the rumours that they financed the development of Hrim-2 just that then? I honestly don’t know incidentally, it’s just what was reported at the time and doesn’t seem particularly unlikely, to me anyway.

I mean who knows really? I wouldn't rule out the Saudis seeing an opportunity to diversify their supplier of ballistic missiles away from just China whilst also fostering better relations with a major grain exporter (important for stability in the Middle East and elsewhere). But who really knows one way or the other who is or isn't supplying funding for various weapons programmes. I mean there's been reports that Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme was partially funded by Saudi Arabia, the quid pro quo being that should Iran develop nuclear weapons that Pakistan would provide functional devices to the Saudis (to be mated to their ballistic missiles). But who really knows? In any event I fear we're heading out into the weeds slightly considering the topic of this thread!!

 

[DustyBin]

I mean who knows really? I wouldn't rule out the Saudis seeing an opportunity to diversify their supplier of ballistic missiles away from just China whilst also fostering better relations with a major grain exporter (important for stability in the Middle East and elsewhere). But who really knows one way or the other who is or isn't supplying funding for various weapons programmes. I mean there's been reports that Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme was partially funded by Saudi Arabia, the quid pro quo being that should Iran develop nuclear weapons that Pakistan would provide functional devices to the Saudis (to be mated to their ballistic missiles). But who really knows? In any event I fear we're heading out into the weeds slightly considering the topic of this thread!!

My thoughts exactly; it's unconfirmed but is hardly a wild claim IMO, it seems perfectly feasible. It's probably not that relevant though as you say.

Apparently Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed a truce which on the face of it is good news.

 

[najaB]

Apparently Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed a truce which on the face of it is good news.

Probably because Azerbaijan tested Moscow's will and made their point.

 

[DustyBin]

Probably because Azerbaijan tested Moscow's will and made their point.

Yes quite possibly. It's worth remembering though that Armenia aren't necessarily the "bad guys" here, and Armenians have been subjected to genocide in the recent past. Obviously the situation is complicated, and I'm certainly no expert, but it's worth pointing out that just because Armenia is aligned with Russia it doesn't mean they're automatically in the wrong. (This is the assumption I've seen people make elsewhere, I'm not suggesting you were doing the same just to be clear!).

 

[najaB]

Yes quite possibly. It's worth remembering though that Armenia aren't necessarily the "bad guys" here, and Armenians have been subjected to genocide in the recent past. Obviously the situation is complicated, and I'm certainly no expert, but it's worth pointing out that just because Armenia is aligned with Russia it doesn't mean they're automatically in the wrong. (This is the assumption I've seen people make elsewhere, I'm not suggesting you were doing the same just to be clear!).

Oh, definitely! Complicated doesn't even come close to describing the situation in that part of the world. The USSR perhaps made the same mistakes that the UK made in drawing lines on maps that didn't take into account the people who lived there - the result is the sizable culturally Armenian population who find themselves living in Azerbaijan.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Armenia is a Christian enclave in a largely Muslim area and was the first state to adopt Christianity as the state religion in AD301.

 

[DustyBin]

Oh, definitely! Complicated doesn't even come close to describing the situation in that part of the world. The USSR perhaps made the same mistakes that the UK made in drawing lines on maps that didn't take into account the people who lived there - the result is the sizable culturally Armenian population who find themselves living in Azerbaijan.

I made the exact same point when discussing the situation last night. I was actually thinking of the Balkans but yes, there are other examples as you've alluded to....

You may be aware but there's also an Azerbaijani enclave (or is it an exclave?) in Armenia.... It's messy to say the least!

 

[Roast Veg]

I made the exact same point when discussing the situation last night. I was actually thinking of the Balkans but yes, there are other examples as you've alluded to....

You may be aware but there's also an Azerbaijani enclave (or is it an exclave?) in Armenia.... It's messy to say the least!

That messiness is reflected in Russian involvement - selling arms to both sides!

 

[dgl]

I bet part of the reasons the Russian army seem to be getting so demoralised is that they are ending up being attacked with the same kit they were using against them only recently.