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Russia invades Ukraine

REVUpminster

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The gas storage reserves are nearly full in Europe supplied by the UK which has the capacity to turn liquid gas in to gas but not the storage capacity. In Europe they have the storage capacity but not the refining capacity. UK usually supplies Europe in the summer and gets it back in the winter. When our north sea storage opens shortly we will have more capacity.
 
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REVUpminster

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Fixed that for you. Don't forget, it was government's decision to let it close in 2017.
Did the UK or Europe know there was going to be a war? Should some of the EU members become so dependent on gas from Russia although some were getting it cheap to the benefit of their economies. Putin played a blinder.
 

Cowley

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Right then. All the gas storage stuff in this thread now please:

And the other energy related posts in here:

Carry on. :)
 

Cloud Strife

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An interesting piece on BBC this morning. There is confirmation that Western sanctions are having an impact on Russia's ability to resupply its military. That North Korea is supplying arms to Russia is not a surprise (and probably more practically useful than supplying Russia with 100,000 troops).

The fact that they're resorting to buying weapons from North Korea says that things must be bad in Russia in terms of supplies. The North Korean ammo is likely to be as low tech as it gets, and unlikely to be of much use beyond terrorising civilians.
 

Gloster

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The fact that they're resorting to buying weapons from North Korea says that things must be bad in Russia in terms of supplies. The North Korean ammo is likely to be as low tech as it gets, and unlikely to be of much use beyond terrorising civilians.

Which is what it is probably going to be used for half the time.
 

Cloud Strife

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Which is what it is probably going to be used for half the time.

Unfortunately, yes.

If anyone is on Twitter, this thread is worth a read: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1567180051057082368

In short:

Reports indicate Zelenskyy will announce tonight (Ukraine time) that UA is executing operations in Kharkiv Oblast. This confirms RU inability to maneuver forces between theater locations & within their force's defensive "stance" to counter Ukrainian offensive actions.

While I don't believe that the Ukrainians came up with this strategy by themselves, it's very clear that Russia is in serious trouble in/around Kherson. The only thing that worries me is that if it looks like they're going to lose control of the West bank of the Dnieper river, then they might well destroy Kherson on their way out.
 

najaB

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I mentioned this due to the element of hypocrisy that no-one likes to hear this fact.
Yes, the USA has invaded other countries. As has the UK. Which has relevance to the fact that Russia is in Ukraine how, exactly?
 

brad465

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Ukraine are now claiming responsibility for the Crimea attacks:


Ukraine has claimed responsibility for a series of air strikes on Crimea after a month of uncertainty over who was behind them.
One of the attacks, which took place in early August, targeted Russia's Saky military base and killed one person.
Ukraine had refused to acknowledge its role and even blamed them on Russian soldiers' discarded cigarettes.
It confirms a significant expansion of the conflict by Ukraine into Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
In an article for national news agency Ukrinform, Kyiv's top commander Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said Ukrainian rockets had targeted a number of Crimean military sites, including the Saky airbase which was rocked by multiple explosions on 9 August.
He claimed the attack - against a base used by Moscow to launch attacks against Ukraine - took 10 Russian warplanes "out of action".
As well as damaging Russia's military capabilities, Mr Zaluzhnyi said it was intended to challenge Russia's overall military confidence and sense of impunity.
The strikes were part of a deliberate response to Russian efforts to try and distance its own civilians from the conflict, he said.
Saky airbase is near Novofedorivka on Crimea's western coast, a beach area popular with Russian tourists.

It is the first time Ukraine has attacked Crimea proper since the full-scale Russian invasion began in February.
The Russian-controlled peninsula has become subject to an increasing number of Ukrainian military threats in recent weeks.
"The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea," the Ukrainian army warned on Twitter on Wednesday, before suggesting Moscow's occupying forces may be forced to swim back to Russia across the Black Sea.
Ukraine's claim of its role in the August attack marks a stark reversal from its earlier official position that it was not involved.
At one point Ukraine's defence minister even suggested the Saky blast could have been caused by careless smoking by Russian soldiers.
"It looks as if they threw their cigarette butts away in several places at the same time," Oleksii Reznikov told a Danish news channel media.
For its part, the Russian-installed Crimean authorities refused to directly accuse Ukraine of responsibility.
Local officials instead blamed the blasts at the Saky airbase on an unexplained ammunition detonation, before citing "acts of sabotage."
Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014, after a referendum which was seen as illegitimate by the international community. The vote was hastily organised after unmarked Russian troops took control of several strategic locations around the peninsula.
On 24 February this year, Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, using Crimea as a springboard to move Russian troops deeper inside Ukraine.
 

ainsworth74

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The fact that they're resorting to buying weapons from North Korea says that things must be bad in Russia in terms of supplies. The North Korean ammo is likely to be as low tech as it gets, and unlikely to be of much use beyond terrorising civilians.
One theory I've seen percolating is that this is actually a cover for China to supply ammunition to Russia. Adds a degree of seperation and at least publicly gives them deniability to have the rockets and shells be "North Korean" rather than direct from Chinese stocks.
 

Cloud Strife

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One theory I've seen percolating is that this is actually a cover for China to supply ammunition to Russia. Adds a degree of seperation and at least publicly gives them deniability to have the rockets and shells be "North Korean" rather than direct from Chinese stocks.

I just don't believe it. The Chinese know fine well that the West will find out quickly, and they won't want to encourage any sort of boycott of Chinese products in protest.

There's nothing for China to get involved with here. I could see it happening if European Russia was in grave danger and they could seize control of Russian energy supplies as a result, but not at this moment.
 

Bald Rick

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There's nothing for China to get involved with here. I could see it happening if European Russia was in grave danger and they could seize control of Russian energy supplies as a result, but not at this moment.

Indeed. A severely weakened Russia might be vulnerable on its south eastern ‘underbelly’. The slightly ropey Tom Clancy novel ‘The Bear and the Dragon’ shows how that might pan out, albeit I rather suspect NATO wouldn’t get involved now!
 

gingerheid

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Propaganda source said:
"I am sure that we have not lost anything (with the start of the operation in Ukraine - ed.) and will not lose anything.

I guess if you don't even value your own people then this is true, in the same was we wouldn't say we lost a paper bag, an empty McDonalds wrapper, a cup, a plastic lid and a soggy paper straw after emptying the rubbish out our car.

I just don't believe it. The Chinese know fine well that the West will find out quickly, and they won't want to encourage any sort of boycott of Chinese products in protest.

There's nothing for China to get involved with here. I could see it happening if European Russia was in grave danger and they could seize control of Russian energy supplies as a result, but not at this moment.

I feel that the thing that both Covid and this war have found out is the strength of China. We cannot afford to boycott China and we will be very careful to avoid annoying them so much they boycott us!
 

Annetts key

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On Putin, he changes the position of the goalposts (the objective in his special military operation) so often, he has worn out the sleeve bearings! I’m not sure that the Russian military would be happy with the “we have not lost anything” comments, given both the equipment and people they have lost…

On China, the west and China are dependent on one another. However, if China decides it does not need money from western trade, we could be in trouble…
 

yorksrob

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On China, the west and China are dependent on one another. However, if China decides it does not need money from western trade, we could be in trouble…

That point will undoubtedly be reached, and Western countries need to be preparing for it.
 

najaB

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That point will undoubtedly be reached, and Western countries need to be preparing for it.
Undoubtedly, but it's a lot further in the future than I thought it was - the Chinese economy is in a much more fragile state than it appeared to be a few years ago.
 

brad465

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Undoubtedly, but it's a lot further in the future than I thought it was - the Chinese economy is in a much more fragile state than it appeared to be a few years ago.
Indeed, their demographics are in a bad place for their economy and their property sector is looking on par for a Lehmann Brothers-style collapse. If anything these things make an attack on Taiwan more likely, but that maybe reduced if they can make Russia a vassal state to it.
 

Cloud Strife

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So, another day, and it's become obvious that Ukraine has pulled a fast one on Russia. They've delivered a kicking to Russia in Kharkiv Oblast, and it looks like Russia left the area in Kharkiv Oblast desperately undermanned in order to protect their gains in Kherson. There is a very real possibility that if Ukraine reaches and liberates Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, then the Russian forces between there and Izium will be trapped. The Oskil River will stop them escaping, and they might end up meeting the same fate as the Russian forces currently sat on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

More significantly, there are suggestions that a major part of the Russian forces were redeployed from Kharkiv Oblast to the west bank of the Dnipro river. Those forces are now trapped with the destruction of the bridges, and essentially they cannot be redeployed or resupplied.

If Russia does end up with two major areas encircled by Ukraine, I cannot see how Putin avoids general mobilisation.
 

najaB

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So, another day, and it's become obvious that Ukraine has pulled a fast one on Russia. They've delivered a kicking to Russia in Kharkiv Oblast, and it looks like Russia left the area in Kharkiv Oblast desperately undermanned in order to protect their gains in Kherson. There is a very real possibility that if Ukraine reaches and liberates Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, then the Russian forces between there and Izium will be trapped. The Oskil River will stop them escaping, and they might end up meeting the same fate as the Russian forces currently sat on the west bank of the Dnipro River.
The only thing that the Ukrainian generals need to do is ensure that they don't overextend themselves ahead of their supply lines and end up suffering the same fate as their Russian counterparts.
 

Annetts key

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So, another day, and it's become obvious that Ukraine has pulled a fast one on Russia. They've delivered a kicking to Russia in Kharkiv Oblast, and it looks like Russia left the area in Kharkiv Oblast desperately undermanned in order to protect their gains in Kherson. There is a very real possibility that if Ukraine reaches and liberates Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, then the Russian forces between there and Izium will be trapped. The Oskil River will stop them escaping, and they might end up meeting the same fate as the Russian forces currently sat on the west bank of the Dnipro River.
Ukraine has made even more progress today. The Russian forces in the Kharkiv and Izium areas look to be screwed.
 

Cloud Strife

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Ukraine has made even more progress today. The Russian forces in the Kharkiv and Izium areas look to be screwed.

They are in deep, deep trouble. They've been caught badly off-guard, Kupiansk looks likely to be liberated quickly, and the Izium pocket will be very difficult for Russian forces to escape from. Russia is apparently trying to rush reinforcements to the area, but with HIMARS also operating in/around the area, they're a sitting duck.

Russia appears to be in a no-win situation now. If they leave Kherson, they're risking exactly the same thing happening again. Yet they don't have the numbers to defend in the east, so what can they realistically do except flee?

The Kyiv Post is suggesting that Izium has already been entered. Insane. And what's even more insane is that Ukraine appears to be acquiring a huge amount of Russian military equipment.
 

Annetts key

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The Ukrainians have officially confirmed that they are in Kupiansk.

There are reports that the Russian military are leaving parts of Izium… if this is correct, it’s a serious embarrassment for Russia.
 

DustyBin

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The Ukrainians have officially confirmed that they are in Kupiansk.

There are reports that the Russian military are leaving parts of Izium… if this is correct, it’s a serious embarrassment for Russia.

This appears to be true, based on some generally reliable Twitter sources. Unless the Russians are able to mount a serious, and effective, counter offensive immediately, which they almost certainly can’t, I don’t see that they have any choice but to get out of there.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Apologies, I don’t have the source for this but it’s rather amusing!

1662810231909.jpeg
 
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Cloud Strife

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This appears to be true, based on some generally reliable Twitter sources. Unless the Russians are able to mount a serious, and effective, counter offensive immediately, which they almost certainly can’t, I don’t see that they have any choice but to get out of there.

It is unbelievable. It seems very unlikely that Russia will be able to mount any meaningful counterattack right now, and it seems that the Russian military leadership has simply fled rather than take on the Ukrainian forces.

The most up-to-date map that I've found is here: https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568581530473140225/photo/1

The funniest thing about this is watching American apologists for Russia try to come to terms with what's happening right now. They're begging Russia to 'get serious', they're talking about how this is a masterplan by Russia and so on.
 

Annetts key

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If the Ukrainian forces can continue this big push, Russia will continue to be outflanked. Realistically, Russian lines are not going to survive if they no longer have support from the rear and/or under attack from the rear.

https://liveuamap.com/ has a larger area shown as ‘contested’ (where the Russians have almost certainly left) to the north of Shevchenkove. From North to South, the length of the area taken by the Ukrainian military could be more than 70km.
 

najaB

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There are reports that the Russian military are leaving parts of Izium… if this is correct, it’s a serious embarrassment for Russia.
There are also reports of Ukrainian troops entering the city!

Edit: Video showing troops entering the city:
 
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