Russia invades Ukraine

[Cloud Strife]

The reports yesterday were that the first Russian defensive line has been breached. If they'll seek to breach the second and third remains to be seen.

I get the impression that it may not be entirely needed to go that far. Even if they move forward 5-10km, it's still 5-10km closer to Crimea. It's very conceivable that they will simply advance where they can, before settling down for another period of cutting Russia to pieces.

I've seen one observation on Twitter where the author suggests that it's not an attack as such, but rather about finding where they can advance without taking many casualties. It's obvious that NATO will be giving them real-time intelligence on Russian positions, so it's a very low-risk strategy.

I do get the impression right now that the Russian strategy is to hope for a bad winter, so that European governments start to crack under the strain of providing energy.

 

[brad465]

Another one bites the bust in "mysterious circumstances":

Ravil Maganov: Russian Lukoil chief dies in 'fall from hospital window'

Lukoil boss Ravil Maganov is the latest Russian businessman to die in mysterious circumstances.

www.bbc.co.uk

The chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant, Ravil Maganov, has died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, reports say.
Maganov, 67, was being treated at the city's Central Clinical Hospital and died from his injuries, sources told Russian media.
He is the latest of a number of high-profile business executives to die in mysterious circumstances.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Lukoil called for the war to end.
Early in March, the Lukoil board called for the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible, expressing its sympathy to victims of "this tragedy".
Ravil Maganov took over as chairman of Lukoil's board two years ago. He began working for the private oil company in 1993.
In May a former senior manager at Lukoil, Alexander Subbotin, reportedly died also under unusual circumstances.

 

[DustyBin]

Another one bites the bust in "mysterious circumstances":

Ravil Maganov: Russian Lukoil chief dies in 'fall from hospital window'

Lukoil boss Ravil Maganov is the latest Russian businessman to die in mysterious circumstances.

www.bbc.co.uk

I suppose the question is whether this is the result of pure paranoia on Putin’s part, or people actually making moves behind the scenes (possibly both).

There’s a third possibility of course, i.e. he did indeed simply fall out the window, but I consider that “improbable”.

 

[Loppylugs]

Another one bites the bust in "mysterious circumstances":

Perhaps it was the nurse's bust and she shoved him out of the window !!

 

[WesternBiker]

Another one bites the bust in "mysterious circumstances":

Ravil Maganov: Russian Lukoil chief dies in 'fall from hospital window'

Lukoil boss Ravil Maganov is the latest Russian businessman to die in mysterious circumstances.

www.bbc.co.uk

There seems to be a growing list (later in the BBC article) - see below. It's a dangerous time to be an oligarch. Sanctions are probably least of their worries.

Several Russian energy oligarchs have died in unusual circumstances in recent months:

• The body of millionaire Novatek former manager Sergei Protosenya was found alongside his wife and daughter at a Spanish villa in April
• A former vice-president of Gazprombank, Vladislav Avayev, was found dead with his wife and daughter in their Moscow flat, also in April
• In May, a former Lukoil tycoon Alexander Subbotin died of heart failure, reportedly after seeking alternative treatment from a shaman.

 

[TwoYellas]

Another one bites the bust in "mysterious circumstances":

Those honey traps are lethal.

 

[Shrop]

Here's an imaginary scenario. Imagine it was 20 years ago and Trump had just finished being President. Then imagine that half a dozen States had become so disillusioned with the US gun laws, the lack of accountability for the Capitol riots, the Trump stance on LGBTQ, abortion, and a few other Trumpian things that they couldn't break away from, so they wanted independence. Bear with me on this, these are just quick examples. Anyway, so then along comes Biden and grants independence to those States.

Now, 20 years later, along comes another Trump and wants those States back. Okay, so it's the US and not Russia which means that taking them back might not have involved such horrendous force as Putin has used, but that's not the issue here, the issue is the country's people, the vast majority of whom firmly believe that the USA is the No.1 country in the world, irrespective of who their President is. This then means that most of the US population would probably welcome whatever methods were used to reclaim those states, even if there was significant collateral damage costing lives, because those lives would be painted as being anti-USA.

THIS is what's happening in Russia now. Unlike the popular view held in a lot of countries in Western Europe, Russian people see their country as the No.1 country in the world, and the vast majority of Russians firmly believe this. This is why Gorbachev's passing isn't being mourned by anything like the numbers we might have expected, because within Russia Putin and his allies have long promoted that Gorbachev was weak. Propaganda is an easy task for Putin, even if it conflicts with what many other countries believe, because the presented position is what their people want to believe, ie that their country is No.1 in the world. So the Russian people are therefore prepared to accept much of what Putin says about the Ukraine war, all they want is for the "threat from the West" to be dealt with and for their country to be reinstated to its former glory, to which end they blindly trust Putin. Couple this with the threat of mysterious disappearances, and getting the general population of Russia to support how things are seen in the West stands very little chance. Very little indeed.

If this was the USA, then although many people in Europe can't accept Trump's gun law stance or indeed some of his other beliefs, there are millions upon millions of Americans that do. Of course it's not exactly the same in Russia, but there are similarities, mostly powered by a belief of a vast majority of its own people, that they live in the No.1 country in the world.

It's why, if we believe Putin will ever be overthrown from within Russia, we may be waiting a VERY long time.

 

[gingerheid]

That woud be a valid comparison if the US was something completely different to what it is.

Russia wouldn't be so hated if it wasn't determined to erase other people's cultures.

 

[najaB]

Of course it's not exactly the same in Russia, but there are similarities, mostly powered by a belief of a vast majority of its own people, that they live in the No.1 country in the world.

That is about the only similarity. The SSRs were largely ruled by force and the people, for the most part, did not want to be part of the USSR. This is very different to the USA where, despite their differences, they see themselves as part of a single whole.

 

[Shrop]

That woud be a valid comparison if the US was something completely different to what it is.

Russia wouldn't be so hated if it wasn't determined to erase other people's cultures.

Hmm, are you sure they're so different? You may find that a lot of the Russian people aren't actually like Putin, just as a lot of the American people aren't like Trump. Your belief that Russian people are determined to erase other people's cultures applies to the Government, not their people.

 

[gingerheid]

You are conflating a terrific number of things here. You posted about the USSR and likened it to the present day US, then claimed to be examining the extent to which a hypothetical USA might be differentiated from the present day Russia. However you then test the validity of your statement by seeing whether something I didn't say is valid in relation to whatever the hypothetical thing that would be the current country separated from it's government might represent?

There is no need to take these steps into dreamland. We have an established reality to look at:

- The USSR attempted to eliminate cultures
- As a result, the victims of this did not want to be part of the USSR

- Russia is currently attempting to eliminate a culture
- As a result the victims of this do not want to be part of Russia.

There is no state in America that these realities can be compared to.

As regards your counter to the argument I didn't make: Who knows. I have met pro Putin Russians and I have met Russians that hate his guts. I have met Russians that are not in Russia that continue to be pro Putin and Russians that are not in Russia that oppose him vehmently. I have met Russians that are in Russia that very carefully keep their mouth shut, and Russians that are in Russia that sometimes say the subtlest gentlest carefully deniable things.

But all if this is irrelevant to the cold hard facts of what is happening; Russia being hated for attempting to eliminate a culture. And to that end I have met Ukrainians that have a first language Ukrainian and who hate his guts, and Ukrainians who have first language Russian who... also hate his guts. No other kinds.

The closest I have ever met to the type of people you are trying to imagine in your first post are Estonians born in Estonian who speak Russian as their first language and call themselves Russian or Russian Estonian. Despite being the sort of people Putin claims to represent they are the most virulently anti-Putin people I have ever met. And the reason for that is that they know more than anyone how evil Russia is. if they wanted to they could live in Russia. It's the last thing they want. They have enough links to Russia to know better than anyone exactly how much better off they are being out it.

 

[najaB]

Hmm, are you sure they're so different?

If you're comparing the USA to the USSR then yes, they were massively different. Californians see themselves as American as much as Texans, Arkanians or Yankies.

Turkmen are Turkmen, Azerbaijanis are Azerbaijanis, Ukrainians are Ukrainians, Kazaks are Kazaks etc. and always have been. The vast majority of the population never saw themselves as Russian.

 

[DustyBin]

I’m with @gingerheid and @najaB here…… I’m sorry @Shrop but that’s a rather bizarre analogy!

 

[Shrop]

I’m with @gingerheid and @najaB here…… I’m sorry @Shrop but that’s a rather bizarre analogy!

No apology needed but thanks for it anyway. I'll offer one of my own to all of you, for perhaps not making myself clear enough. Let me say I do understand your point that countries that are now independent from Russia are proud countrymen in their own right, and its probably the case that no US state really wants independence, even those who despair of the Trumpian thinking that prevails. So in that respect, yes my analogy wasn't spot on.

There's a fair bit that I could say in defence of my earlier comments that doesn't conflict with the above, but right now I need to be elsewhere so maybe later. But I do accept your comments.

 

[brad465]

So while we're all focused on Truss becoming PM, Russia announced what we'd all been thinking for a while, that Nord Stream 1 won't be used until sanctions are lifted. On the face of it this will concern many regarding gas prices, but actually could be good news if Europe doesn't capitulate: Russia doesn't make as much money, Germany et al. further look elsewhere for supplies and arguably they've played their last card. Germany's gas storage is already ahead of target despite high prices and reduced flows from Russia, suggesting they've gone a long way already.

 

[Shrop]

So while we're all focused on Truss becoming PM, Russia announced what we'd all been thinking for a while, that Nord Stream 1 won't be used until sanctions are lifted. On the face of it this will concern many regarding gas prices, but actually could be good news if Europe doesn't capitulate: Russia doesn't make as much money, Germany et al. further look elsewhere for supplies and arguably they've played their last card. Germany's gas storage is already ahead of target despite high prices and reduced flows from Russia, suggesting they've gone a long way already.

Why does the lack of supplying gas to Western Europe make much difference to Russia? Do they not have the vast markets of China and India to buy their gas instead?

 

[JamesT]

Why does the lack of supplying gas to Western Europe make much difference to Russia? Do they not have the vast markets of China and India to buy their gas instead?

Those willing to buy Russian oil and gas are getting a hefty discount.

 

[gingerheid]

There has to be a certain amount of, shall we say, bravado in Russia's claims that sanctions aren't affecting them; and as we know they lie it shouldn't come as a surprise!

However I imagine they will try and look for a country to weaken and break unity, and the short term reward for doing so would be quite impressive.

In the long term of course, having gas used as a weapon against us puts us roughly in the place of Ukraine in 2005, and we know how compromise worked out for them. I suggest that the far better long run solution is to be finding the alternatives fast!

 

[najaB]

Why does the lack of supplying gas to Western Europe make much difference to Russia? Do they not have the vast markets of China and India to buy their gas instead?

It is a lot easier to change your market for oil than it is for gas. Oil tends to be transported by tankers, which are easy to sail to a different port. On the other hand gas is mostly transported by pipeline and there are few (no?) pipelines heading east towards India or China, and it will take several years to construct them. Russia has limited gasification capacity for LNG exports, certainly nowhere near the capacity of the pipelines heading west.

 

[Cdd89]

In relation to sanctions, my impression is that the only reason for them is to expedite a peace settlement of some kind by making continuation of the current situation unattractive for the other side.

If the above also applies to Russia, maybe it signals that they are looking for a way out (and naturally want it to be as favourable as possible?). I wouldn’t view negotiating a settlement as capitulating, because I don’t see what positive endgames there are from the status quo. Hoping to see Putin deposed internally (and replaced with someone better) feels like a long shot.

 

[najaB]

I wouldn’t view negotiating a settlement as capitulating, because I don’t see what positive endgames there are from the status quo.

I agree that a negotiated settlement would be preferable to continuing the war, but the absolute minimum that Ukraine should accept is a return to the pre-war borders. Russia cannot be allowed to gain a single square inch of Ukrainian territory through this misadventure.

 

[Cdd89]

The absolute minimum that Ukraine should accept is a return to the pre-war borders. Russia cannot be allowed to gain a single square inch of Ukrainian territory through this misadventure.

If that can be convincingly sold back home as a “success” / victory, I rather suspect Putin would take that. I may be wrong but given what a strategic error the invasion was, how much our sanctions are hurting (by his indirect admission), and how weak this is making him look on the international stage, he must be desperate for a face-saving exit; as (I might add) Europe must be.

The other thing in Europe’s favour, gas-wise, is that we only need whatever deal is reached to stick for ~5 years, since I assume we wouldn’t be so silly as to rely long-term on Russian gas even if it were turned back on*. I certainly agree that Russia would like to be ‘back for more’ within a decade, but equally Russia knowing we have successfully developed other options would limit the chances of further aggression.

* Though equally urgent is divesting ourselves from relying on China, and we don’t seem to be making any progress doing that (whereas China are making concerted efforts to reduce reliance on us and the US$ as a currency).

 

[najaB]

If that can be convincingly sold back home as a “success” / victory, I rather suspect Putin would take that.

There's no way that could be spun as a victory. Russia has lost too much in the way of men and materiel for that to be anything but a loss.

 

[Cdd89]

There's no way that could be spun as a victory. Russia has lost too much in the way of men and materiel for that to be anything but a loss.

I’m not sure — I have the feeling this conflict will end with both sides claiming to those back home that they have ‘taught the other side a lesson’.

I certainly don’t see any material gains emerging either way; unless of course Russia does something even more sickening, but hopefully they continue to rely on a non-abysmal ex-Western international reputation.

 

[najaB]

I’m not sure — I have the feeling this conflict will end with both sides claiming to those back home that they have ‘taught the other side a lesson’.

Russia's military is significantly smaller and less well equipped than it was in February, Ukraine's is larger and much more modern with massive amounts of NATO-compatible weapons.

That's the kind of lesson that Russia can't afford to teach again!

 

[Cloud Strife]

I agree that a negotiated settlement would be preferable to continuing the war, but the absolute minimum that Ukraine should accept is a return to the pre-war borders. Russia cannot be allowed to gain a single square inch of Ukrainian territory through this misadventure.

Right now, there's absolutely no reason for Ukraine to even agree to it. The plan in Kherson is working: Russia has serious problems supplying the west bank of the Dnieper. Ukraine is dominating the air there, the bridges are out of use, meaning that the only option left is to make a very dangerous boat crossing of the river.

The problem for Russia is that they simply don't know how to react to modern warfare. Kherson is actually a test ground for modern military thinking, and it's clear that Russian tactics are still based around large battlefields rather than what we're seeing there.

Why does the lack of supplying gas to Western Europe make much difference to Russia? Do they not have the vast markets of China and India to buy their gas instead?

They don't have the infrastructure. The pipelines are all orientated towards Europe, and you can't just build lengthy new pipelines without incurring tremendous costs first. Then there's the simple fact that India simply won't pay sky high prices for gas, so Russia is in the position that they're having to sell energy almost at a loss.

 

[birchesgreen]

China is buying more gas from Russia (mostly in the form of LNG), it's gas imports from them are up nearly 30%. They in fact are buying more gas than they need and selling the surplus to... Europe.

 

[Yew]

Why does the lack of supplying gas to Western Europe make much difference to Russia? Do they not have the vast markets of China and India to buy their gas instead?

In a lot of cases, the infrastructure isn't there to deliver it to such places.

Russias trump card is it's gas supplies, however even if it could force the EU to stop supporting Ukraine it would be at best a minor victory - as the US would be unaffected and is the biggest arms supplier to Ukraine in terms of cash value.


Quite simply, the hurt that Putin can inflict on the west is a lot lower than what we can inflict on him. Arms supplies to Ukraine and sanctions regimes are causing a lot more issues for Russia than getting our gas from slightly different places are for us.

 

[najaB]

China is buying more gas from Russia (mostly in the form of LNG), it's gas imports from them are up nearly 30%. They in fact are buying more gas than they need and selling the surplus to... Europe.

Which, while far from ideal, is better for us in the short term as it strengthens China's position wrt Russia. It's less-bad that China's getting the extra coin than Russia as they are unlikely to start a direct military conflict in our backyard.

 

[WesternBiker]

An interesting piece on BBC this morning. There is confirmation that Western sanctions are having an impact on Russia's ability to resupply its military. That North Korea is supplying arms to Russia is not a surprise (and probably more practically useful than supplying Russia with 100,000 troops).

More relevant is the income Russia is still receiving from fuel exports, primarily gas; although less is being supplied, the surging price means that Russia's income is holding steady.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62804825

Ukraine war: North Korea supplying Russia with weapons, say US reports​

Russia has been forced to buy military hardware from North Korea as sanctions squeeze Moscow's ability to supply its military, US media have reported.
According to declassified intelligence obtained by the New York Times, Russia has bought millions of artillery shells and rockets from Pyongyang.
A US official said Russia would be forced to buy additional North Korean weaponry as the war dragged on.
Last week, Moscow reportedly received its first order of new Iranian drones.
Iran and North Korea, both the targets of significant Western sanctions, have sought to deepen ties with Russia since President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February.
Kim Jong-un's regime has blamed the US for the conflict and accused the West of pursuing a "hegemonic policy" that justified Russia's use of force.
Last month, North Korea recognised the independence of Russia's two proxy statelets in eastern Ukraine - the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics - and vowed to deepen its "comradely friendship" with Moscow. Russia's Vladimir Putin said the two countries would expand their "comprehensive and constructive bilateral relations", according to Pyongyang state media.
The exact size and scale of the new weapons deliveries revealed by the report remain unclear.
But a US official told the Associated Press that turning to North Korea for support demonstrated that "the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions".
Broad economic sanctions have done little to damage Russia's income from energy exports, according to Finnish think tank the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. It estimates Russia has made €158bn (£136bn) from surging fossil fuel prices during the six-month invasion, with EU imports accounting for more than half of that.
However, US and EU believes that Moscow's ability to resupply its military has been impaired.
Last week, officials in the Biden administration told US media that the first shipments of Iranian-made drones had also been delivered to Russia.
US intelligence officers believe that Russian operators have travelled to Iran to receive training on the Mohajer-6 and Shahed series weapons.
But they told reporters recently that many of the drones had been beset by mechanical and technical problems since delivery.
Iran has officially denied delivering weapons to either side of the conflict, but in July US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Tehran was planning to supply Moscow with potentially hundreds of drones for its war in Ukraine, some with combat capabilities.
On Tuesday, UK defence officials said in a daily update that Russia was struggling to maintain its supply of battlefield drones in the face of significant "combat losses".
"It is likely that Russia is struggling to maintain stocks of UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], exacerbated by component shortages resulting from international sanctions," the update said.
"The limited availability of reconnaissance UAVs is likely degrading commanders' tactical situational awareness and increasingly hampering Russian operations," officials added.