-
Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Eurostar - Could some other routes be under threat?
- Thread starter paul1609
- Start date
- Status
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R
RailUK Forums
zwk500
Veteran Member
I agree Amsterdam/Rotterdam is under threat but I think the London-Lille-Brussels interworked with London-Paris non-stop is safe for the foreseeable future. Amsterdam in particular is a problem, I believe, because of the planned rebuild of Amsterdam Zuid and Centraal that another thread has touched on.
Cloud Strife
Established Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2014
- Messages
- 2,965
I don't think so. The Amsterdam-London market is huge, and Schiphol has so many issues this year that Eurostar looks like a good alternative. The Dutch government also told the Dutch infrastructure company to find a solution, which means that one will surely be found.
Last edited by a moderator:
The Amsterdam-London link is incredibly important to the Dutch government. They are anti-air-travel and KLM for one will likely be forced to slash the number of flights between the countries, so it’s become a vital piece of the alternative transport infrastructure. The trains are also fully booked with people who wouldn’t otherwise take it. If it does go due to lack of station facilities then it would only be a temporary measure - unlike the Disney/SFrance/Ski services which existed only for (marginal) commercial reasons - or the Kent/Calais stops which I imagine would require significant government funding to restore
johncrossley
Established Member
Is that a recent development? Creating one of the biggest airport hubs in the world doesn't sound like anti-air travel.
Sorry the fully booked thing just isnt true. Theres tickets available on every direct train this week which is peak season. The Dutch operation is hugely loss making for Eurostar. Its really a question of how long they want to subsidise it or whether a government wants to step in.
Yes in the last couple of years, and certainly since the last election. KLM for one is not happy https://news.klm.com/shrinking-schiphol-highly-detrimental-and-not-in-line-with-coalition-agreement/
Trainbike46
Established Member
They're increasing the frequency of the Amsterdam trains, and they do sell out regularly, so it seems unlikely that Eurostar will drop the route
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Do you have any evidence for it being loss-making?
In July, when I had to change the date due to covid, I was told I was given the last available seat of my new travel date, almost a week in advance. Note it wasn't just the last seat on my new train, but the last seat on any train that day
Last edited:
Two of the three Dutch school holiday regions, North and Central, are back at school - the former since 22nd August, the latter since 29th August - and the south region starts next Monday. On that basis, I'd suggest the 'peak' season has passed and it isn't surprising there are seats available this week.
(Note also the cross-channel traffic delays this weekend were mostly in France, implying return traffic)
I believe that to break even on the Dutch trains would need around 8 trains per day.
Trainbike46
Established Member
Is there any published documentation you are basing this on?
no its not publically available.
Trainbike46
Established Member
Do you have insider information then? Obviously if you can't share that's fine, but it can be hard to figure out on here who is knowledgeable and who is just making things up!
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Coming back to this; Given the limitations on Schiphol Airport coming in 8 trains a day seems like a realistic number to reach, on the London-Amsterdam corridor as that's one of the busiest air corridors in the world
edited to quote the correct message
zwk500
Veteran Member
8 trains a day is a train every 2 hours for 16 hours, which seems possible. Using the timetable available at https://www.seat61.com/trains-and-routes/london-to-amsterdam-by-eurostar.htm#Train_times you can get the following pattern:
| St Pancras dep. | Amsterdam Arr. | Amsterdam Dep | St Pancras Arr. |
| 06:47 | 10:00 | ||
| 08:47 | 12:00 | ||
| 10:47 | 14:00 | ||
| 06:16 | 11:11 | 12:47 | 16:00 |
| 08:16 | 13:11 | 14:47 | 18:00 |
| 10:16 | 15:11 | 16:47 | 20:00 |
| 12:16 | 17:11 | 18:47 | 22:00 |
| 14:16 | 19:11 | ||
| 16:16 | 21:11 | ||
| 18:16 | 23:11 |
(Edited for formatting)
Later edit: Sorry mods for drifting into speculation, I'll stop it now!
Last edited:
Trainbike46
Established Member
I like that timetable! Regular 2-hourly departures would also allow for efficient use of security and border staff - open check-in 90 minutes before departure, and staff can have a 30 minute break after each train leaves.
Re route profitability, could that potentially be improved by extending the area of the train on the secure part of the platform, so more seats could be sold from Amsterdam/Rotterdam on each train?
Maybe we should split the Amsterdam/Disney discussion off into a separate thread?
I think we could probably get to 5 trains a day and see how that works out.
But agree, that ironically - post Brexit, Brussels (business) traffic will inevitably decline and the Amsterdam extension will become critical to the viability of the Brussels route itself.
But agree, that ironically - post Brexit, Brussels (business) traffic will inevitably decline and the Amsterdam extension will become critical to the viability of the Brussels route itself.
Next Friday there are 50 flights from London airports alone (LHR LGW STN LCY) to Amsterdam. That’s around 8000 seats. Maybe around 25% of those would be international connections but the remainder is still 10 train-loads of people. Eurostar has captured 80% of the London-Paris travel market so I don’t see why the Lon-Ams route couldn’t support 8 journeys on a peak day.
Paris is half the journey time. Its airports suck and are miles out. Flying there was never a good experience.
Amsterdam's airport is close to the city and with amazing, affordable connections across the Netherlands. It's a great passenger experience overall.
I'd love there to be more trains, but 80% will never happen with a 3h45-4h journey time.
Especially as ex-UK, so many folks in the Home Counties have a much closer, cheaper access to an AMS flight from their nearest airport. Compare a 6am flight (9-10am meeting let's say), with the equivalent of heading via St Pancras.
Amsterdam's airport is close to the city and with amazing, affordable connections across the Netherlands. It's a great passenger experience overall.
I'd love there to be more trains, but 80% will never happen with a 3h45-4h journey time.
Especially as ex-UK, so many folks in the Home Counties have a much closer, cheaper access to an AMS flight from their nearest airport. Compare a 6am flight (9-10am meeting let's say), with the equivalent of heading via St Pancras.
DanielB
Established Member
Well... I think passengers who experienced Schiphol this summer had a different experience 
The connections from Schiphol to the remainder of the Netherlands are great indeed, but the same would apply to Eurostar. For many regions Eurostar is actually an improvement in journey time as Rotterdam is reached more quickly than Amsterdam (and Schiphol).
You could say that Schiphol has a similar problem regarding flying from the Netherlands as London has as a departure point for Eurostar from the UK: you're first traveling in the wrong direction to get there.
The connections from Schiphol to the remainder of the Netherlands are great indeed, but the same would apply to Eurostar. For many regions Eurostar is actually an improvement in journey time as Rotterdam is reached more quickly than Amsterdam (and Schiphol).
You could say that Schiphol has a similar problem regarding flying from the Netherlands as London has as a departure point for Eurostar from the UK: you're first traveling in the wrong direction to get there.
biko
Member
The current Dutch government isn't pro-rail and anti-flying at all. The government actually doesn't really do anything as coalition partners disagree on topics such as these. The link you share is about reducing the number of flights from Schiphol, not because of CO2 emissions, but because of nitrogen emissions. Currently practically nothing can be built because in the past too many nitrogen emitting activities have been allowed. A court has decided that nothing can be done which emits more nitrogen than currently is the case until reductions have been made. Schiphol is one of the big emitters, so will need to reduce a little.
As a point that this government is pro-flying: during Covid, KLM got subsidies without any trouble, while public transport operators needed to beg for a very long time to get some money. So I cannot see this government subsidising Eurostar.
Citybreak1
Member
I see them expanding to Germany next. By axing routes it frees up space for Cologne. Don’t see Amsterdam going either. I would like to a see a Lumo style budget service to service Kent and Calais. Eurostar will focus on airline market.
zwk500
Veteran Member
Capacity between Lille and London was never the main problem for operating to Cologne. The space for the border and security process (as well as the potential market) is the problem there, and by all accounts it isn't getting any easier.
A low cost operation would be lovely, but I don't see how it can be made to Work economically on the UK side with things like train depots and how to serve London.
dutchflyer
Established Member
- Joined
- 17 Oct 2013
- Messages
- 1,550
The major constraint for the service-how many trips, in NL seems to be the capacity of the outstationed borderpolice-or whatever GB calls it this year. Timings need to be set such that they are ideally in 1 shift.
Very recently there were also proposals to speed it up by scrapping the half train opened for NL-BE traffic and thus shorten the stop in BRU-or maybe even trying to abolish it. Which should indicate they see enough demand for it.
Traffic to BRU was for a large part EU-workers, but of course Brexit has put an end to that. No idea though how much this has diminished-if at all. Probably also very hard to tell due to pandemic in between.
Very recently there were also proposals to speed it up by scrapping the half train opened for NL-BE traffic and thus shorten the stop in BRU-or maybe even trying to abolish it. Which should indicate they see enough demand for it.
Traffic to BRU was for a large part EU-workers, but of course Brexit has put an end to that. No idea though how much this has diminished-if at all. Probably also very hard to tell due to pandemic in between.
BahrainLad
Member
- Joined
- 3 Aug 2015
- Messages
- 415
London Brussels isn't just EU traffic, there are plenty of multinational business who have their European HQs there, as there are in Amsterdam and Rotterdam (indeed I used to go to see Robeco, a large asset manager, in the latter regularly and it was a bit of a pain via AMS, the direct train would have been much easier!)
Trainbike46
Established Member
Schiphol airport will have to shrink (from 500k flights pa to 440k flights pa), and chances are that most of those flight reductions will be made by reducing flights on short hops, such as to London, Paris and Brussel. There is a real opportunity for Eurostar to swoop in and capture a lot of this market. Plus, it can also take parts of the Rotterdam-London flight market as well as the Eindhoven-London flight market, both of which, while not nearly as big as the Schiphol one, are significant
I believe they've already stopped taking passengers from Amsterdam/Rotterdam to Brussels. When I used it recently the stop in Brussels was only around 15 minutes. (That's what the train manager said - I didn't time it).
The other half just runs empty to Brussels though - if they filled both halves in the Netherlands they'd need to change the infrastructure because at the moment they just close off half the platform in Amsterdam and Rotterdam.
It's a shame that the Amsterdam Eurostar services can't stop as they pass through Schiphol as they would also make a good feeder to longer haul flights.
Saw neither of that on my recent trip - just the list of stations (not of great use as they are all pick-up only until London) and a rather odd safety video.
I think we're more likely to see integrated ticketing between Eurostar and Thalys for that rather than Eurostar operating direct services. The border and security faff will just be too much to overcome otherwise I suspect. Far easier to offer a through ticket with connection at Brussels Midi.
Really? It seemed fine when I went through on Monday - the worst bit was about half an hour to get through security, but that wasn't anything I'd think of as really bad. Other than that it all seemed fine* - where have the problems been?Well... I think passengers who experienced Schiphol this summer had a different experience
*Beyond the fact that I'm not particularly impressed by the airside catering facilities at Schipol but that's always been the case.
- Status