Northern overcrowding issues (Manchester, Bank Holiday weekend)

[northwichcat]

As expected Manchester services are heaving today. Pride, international cricket, Premiership football and a food festival are just some of the events on.

But what were the planners thinking allocating 2 carriages for the 09:02 Chester to Manchester? That service was overcrowded on Thursday, when it was a weekday and it was just the cricket on. It ended up getting 15 minutes behind schedule today due to overcrowding issues. The only positive with it being a class 150 is the guard didn't have to throw people off to be able to get back on.

It seems they've allocated a 5 car set to Hope Valley stoppers, which is a surprise.

 

[Foxcover]

As expected Manchester services are heaving today. Pride, international cricket, Premiership football and a food festival are just some of the events on.

But what were the planners thinking allocating 2 carriages for the 09:02 Chester to Manchester? That service was overcrowded on Thursday, when it was a weekday and it was just the cricket on. It ended up getting 15 minutes behind schedule today due to overcrowding issues. The only positive with it being a class 150 is the guard didn't have to throw people off to be able to get back on.

It seems they've allocated a 5 car set to Hope Valley stoppers, which is a surprise.

I noticed the North Wales coast also had a fair number of 2 cars from TFW this morning heading west, which seemed very under-provided given the weather forecast and bank holiday. Not sure where the stock has gone instead…

 

[northwichcat]

I noticed the North Wales coast also had a fair number of 2 cars from TFW this morning heading west, which seemed very under-provided given the weather forecast and bank holiday. Not sure where the stock has gone instead…

The 2 car set on the 09:45 Llandudno to Manchester Airport certainly got behind it's schedule, as did the 11:44 Llandudno to Manchester, which may relate to overcrowding.

 

[185143]

I noticed the North Wales coast also had a fair number of 2 cars from TFW this morning heading west, which seemed very under-provided given the weather forecast and bank holiday. Not sure where the stock has gone instead…

Cardiff Pride would be my guess.

Would be far from the first time the Welsh franchise has pulled out all the stops to provide for an event in Cardiff at the expense of the rest of Wales and the Borders!

 

[Foxcover]

Cardiff Pride would be my guess.

Would be far from the first time the Welsh franchise has pulled out all the stops to provide for an event in Cardiff at the expense of the rest of Wales and the Borders!

Yes, looks like that’s what happened - per RTT, 6 car 175s from Holyhead and Piccadilly down to Cardiff first thing this morning, leaving the north wales coast badly short. You just have to look at the delays accumulating on the TFWs at and west of Chester this morning to see the consequences…

 

[northwichcat]

Cardiff Pride would be my guess.

Would be far from the first time the Welsh franchise has pulled out all the stops to provide for an event in Cardiff at the expense of the rest of Wales and the Borders!

I'm sure a lot of people in North Wales would have headed to Manchester Pride. Sounds like the Welsh also leave the north behind at the expense of the south.

 

[STINT47]

I often wonder if rail managers deliberately run short formed trains at the weekends as most passengers will be on off peak or cheap advance tickets. In the week you see longer trains but come the weekend on a bust leisure route a two car roles up.

 

[Whistler40145]

As expected Manchester services are heaving today. Pride, international cricket, Premiership football and a food festival are just some of the events on.

But what were the planners thinking allocating 2 carriages for the 09:02 Chester to Manchester? That service was overcrowded on Thursday, when it was a weekday and it was just the cricket on. It ended up getting 15 minutes behind schedule today due to overcrowding issues. The only positive with it being a class 150 is the guard didn't have to throw people off to be able to get back on.

It seems they've allocated a 5 car set to Hope Valley stoppers, which is a surprise.

Northern don't have 5 car units, I did the Hope Valley stopper on Monday evening and was a three car 195

 

[Agent_Squash]

Northern don't have 5 car units, I did the Hope Valley stopper on Monday evening and was a three car 195

They can couple up 3 and a 2 to make 5.

 

[Bikeman78]

Yes, looks like that’s what happened - per RTT, 6 car 175s from Holyhead and Piccadilly down to Cardiff first thing this morning, leaving the north wales coast badly short. You just have to look at the delays accumulating on the TFWs at and west of Chester this morning to see the consequences…

Those are booked workings which happen almost every Saturday. The simple reality is that too many 175s are out of service.

 

[Whistler40145]

They can couple up 3 and a 2 to make 5.

If they have the stock available

 

[Agent_Squash]

If they have the stock available

Which they clearly did, as per the OPs example.

 

[Whistler40145]

Which they clearly did, as per the OPs example.

Or stock in the wrong place or the continuing lack of drivers

 

[_toommm_]

Or stock in the wrong place or the continuing lack of drivers

Northern are regularly running six-cars on the Hope Valley stoppers now on Saturdays. Admittedly this weekend it seemed to be either three or five, but it’s quite common now to get 195/1s doubled up.

 

[43055]

Yes, looks like that’s what happened - per RTT, 6 car 175s from Holyhead and Piccadilly down to Cardiff first thing this morning, leaving the north wales coast badly short. You just have to look at the delays accumulating on the TFWs at and west of Chester this morning to see the consequences…

Also Rhyl air show this weekend as well which may count towards the delays. Was at Chester this afternoon as there was a double 158 and a 150+158 combo on the Birmingham to Holyhead route and real time trains also shows 2 double 175s on the Llandudno to Manchester route. To my knowledge anything along the coast is normally a single unit.

expected Manchester services are heaving today. Pride, international cricket, Premiership football and a food festival are just some of the events on.

But what were the planners thinking allocating 2 carriages for the 09:02 Chester to Manchester? That service was overcrowded on Thursday, when it was a weekday and it was just the cricket on. It ended up getting 15 minutes behind schedule today due to overcrowding issues. The only positive with it being a class 150 is the guard didn't have to throw people off to be able to get back on.

It seems they've allocated a 5 car set to Hope Valley stoppers, which is a surprise.

The 1230 TfW from Crewe to Manchester was a full and standing 2 car 175 on arrival at Crewe. I wouldn't of been supprised if it left people behind the platform was that busy.

 

[VideozVideoz]

Northern are regularly running six-cars on the Hope Valley stoppers now on Saturdays. Admittedly this weekend it seemed to be either three or five, but it’s quite common now to get 195/1s doubled up.

Yes weekends are often now allocated a double 195 to support leisure travellers (and when TP cancel their SHF-MAN services), according to a guard

 

[Agent_Squash]

Or stock in the wrong place or the continuing lack of drivers

As explained above, coupling trains up is a common practice on Northern. Don’t see why this is so surprising?

 

[AlastairFraser]

As expected Manchester services are heaving today. Pride, international cricket, Premiership football and a food festival are just some of the events on.

But what were the planners thinking allocating 2 carriages for the 09:02 Chester to Manchester? That service was overcrowded on Thursday, when it was a weekday and it was just the cricket on. It ended up getting 15 minutes behind schedule today due to overcrowding issues. The only positive with it being a class 150 is the guard didn't have to throw people off to be able to get back on.

It seems they've allocated a 5 car set to Hope Valley stoppers, which is a surprise.

This is a standard weekend on Northern from my experience as a weekends only commuter - the week services I occasionally take for overtime shifts are lightly loaded at best, while frequently on the Manchester to Preston section of my commute, I have to stand at least all the way to Bolton/Wigan both ways, nearly always on Saturday evenings.
I think it's due to the reduced revenue they get from advance tickets and their usual cancellations on top of TPE.

 

[185143]

I'm sure a lot of people in North Wales would have headed to Manchester Pride. Sounds like the Welsh also leave the north behind at the expense of the south.

Indeed.

I remember the rugby final a few years ago, where Arriva Trains Wales TOTALLY withdrew everything in North Wales in order to provide every possible DMU for Cardiff, without even arranging ticket acceptance with Virgin for the North Wales Coast, let alone replacement transport.

Nothing ever changes.

 

[uww11x]

Fundamentally, Northern should have held on to some 144's and 153's to assist with overcrowding, but presumably they weren't able to.

Not as easy it seems on paper.

1- You have to store them somewhere
2- You have to maintain them
3- Drivers/Guards will need refreshers on them after a certain amount of time if they are only used occasionally.
4- Not PRM friendly.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Aug 2022 ==

I often wonder if rail managers deliberately run short formed trains at the weekends as most passengers will be on off peak or cheap advance tickets. In the week you see longer trains but come the weekend on a bust leisure route a two car roles up.

Looking in from the outside, none of us will know. Perhaps they are working off a long term maintenance plan, were they expect weekends to have less demand for units. We don't know many units are stopped for unplanned faults. Is there enough operational staff to shunt the units together in the sidings etc. Are the units in the right place to form the train? (Disruption, staff availability, etc etc.

 

[uww11x]

I often wonder if rail managers deliberately run short formed trains at the weekends as most passengers will be on off peak or cheap advance tickets. In the week you see longer trains but come the weekend on a bust leisure route a two car roles up.

Looking in from the outside, none of us will know. Perhaps they are working off a long term maintenance plan, were they expect weekends to have less demand for units. We don't know many units are stopped for unplanned faults. Is there enough operational staff to shunt the units together in the sidings etc. Are the units in the right place to form the train? (Disruption, staff availability, etc etc.

 

[D6130]

Since the start of the TPE overtime ban, the hourly Northern Sunday services from Manchester Victoria to Leeds via the Calder Valley have been incredibly busy with people just trying to get across the Pennines any way that they can. Where possible, these trains are being strengthened to five or six cars. To be honest we could do with a half-hourly Sunday service on this line - the Blackpool-Yorks excluded - but I very much doubt that there would be the resources to do it.

 

[geoffk]

Add in the fact that at weekends most people will be on cheaper tickets, either discounted in some way, many child fares, and perhaps some season ticket holders having an essentially free discretionary trip, and one can see how the current situation persists. I suspect this same discussion will be being had in a decade or two.

Another way of "choking off excess demand", a favourite of the Treasury. At least the cricket at Old Trafford has finished!

 

[northwichcat]

perhaps some season ticket holders having an essentially free discretionary trip

This is less likely now that many people have hybrid roles and use a 8 return journeys in 28 days ticket.

Whether it would be essentially a free discretionary trip anyway is debatable. If someone held a monthly season and had three days off sick and took one day annual leave, you could argue they need to make some weekend journeys to get the true value of their ticket.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Aug 2022 ==

To be honest we could do with a half-hourly Sunday service on this line - the Blackpool-Yorks excluded - but I very much doubt that there would be the resources to do it.

Sunday enhancements have been proposed on numerous routes but they've been quietly dropped due to potential issues getting more crews to work Sundays.

 

[Starmill]

I'm sure a lot of people in North Wales would have headed to Manchester Pride. Sounds like the Welsh also leave the north behind at the expense of the south.

If you perhaps try to look at it from their perspective, it may assist. Devolved public funds from Wales are being used to subsidise Chester to Manchester via Warrington services every day of the week. However, as Northern do not operate this route on Sunday, they get a nice cost saving while TfW deal with the negative consequences.

It's the wish of the Transport for Wales, who bear in mind are funding all of this, that TfW Rail strengthen services to Cardiff when major events are taking place, and the schedule of these events is agreed a long time in advance, as well as providing and paying for additional staffing at Cardiff Central.

So in that context is is a surprise that a small handful of coaches have been reallocated?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Aug 2022 ==

Sunday enhancements have been proposed on numerous routes but they've been quietly dropped due to potential issues getting more crews to work Sundays.

Northern could have run some extra STP services between Manchester Airport and Chester via Warrington Bank Quay using a four car 195 set, all for the cost one driver shift and one guard shift, and the fuel and maintenance miles. However, that money is simply not forthcoming.

A number of cancelled Chat Moss stopping services too, so even more pressure on TfW between Manchester and Newton-le-Willows / Earlestown.

 

[northwichcat]

Devolved public funds from Wales are being used to subsidise Chester to Manchester via Warrington services every day of the week.

Are they though? The Welsh government gets funding from Westminster and rail franchise subsidies are based on the entire network, not individual routes. I think the franchise would make much less if only served the needs of Welsh residents. Even then it might stop in Warrington, as that's useful for connections to services towards Scotland. From what I've seen a lot of people travel between Runcorn East and Warrington, so the franchise does very nicely getting the majority of the pie and only leaving a small slice for Northern.

 

[Starmill]

Are they though? The Welsh government gets funding from Westminster and rail franchise subsidies are based on the entire network, not individual routes. I think the franchise would make much less if only served the needs of Welsh residents. Even then it might stop in Warrington, as that's useful for connections to services towards Scotland. From what I've seen a lot of people travel between Runcorn East and Warrington, so the franchise does very nicely getting the majority of the pie and only leaving a small slice for Northern.

The English routes are contracted via TfW but strictly they're not a devolved matter. However, TfW receive less through the Barnett formula for running these routes than if the Welsh Government had tried to reject them and the Department had been forced to have Northern run them instead.

But given it's a Sunday people are complaining about, it's unarguable that the real source of the problem is that Northern don't run this route on Sundays. On nearly all trains, Northern also have time to stop at Runcorn East should they choose to but for most services they don't.

 

[northwichcat]

The English routes are contracted via TfW but strictly they're not a devolved matter. However, TfW receive less through the Barnett formula for running these routes than if the Welsh Government had tried to reject them and the Department had been forced to have Northern run them instead.

Maybe that's because the Manchester and Birmingham services aren't loss making and they are being used to subside the Welsh parts of the network? I'm sure if TfW Rail had taken over North Wales & Chester to Euston services the subsidy would have decreased not increased.

The Barnett formula can be used to compare Scotrail and TfW Rail but I'm not sure of it's relevance when comparing TfW Rail with an English franchise. There is absolutely no consistency between English franchises and subsidy levels, they relate to how much money the routes make are expected to make collectively, not an England wide formula.

But given it's a Sunday people are complaining about

It was a Saturday people were originally complaining about. Today I notice there is a 6 car working on Holyhead to Manchester, which is a vast improvement on yesterday!

 

[Killingworth]

Northern don't have 5 car units, I did the Hope Valley stopper on Monday evening and was a three car 195

Yesterday 2 out of 3 Northern Hope Valley services were 3 car and the third was 5, 2+3 car 195s. I caught it twice and I'd agree that was generous at the Sheffield end in both directions. The difficulty is that the route can be busy at either end, or both, but the return service can be the opposite.

Today it was supposedly going to be 6 cars but it isn't working out too well going west. 10.17 from Sheffield was a double 3 car 195. A double 150 was on the 11.15 but then nothing until it returned to operate the 14.14, hardly attractive for those wanting to go walking in the Peak District. I understand the 4 car 9.44 out of Piccadilly was full and standing and it was again as the 11.15 out of Sheffield.

No shortage of trains today, it's shortage of crew.

 

[bramling]

Whether it would be essentially a free discretionary trip anyway is debatable. If someone held a monthly season and had three days off sick and took one day annual leave, you could argue they need to make some weekend journeys to get the true value of their ticket.

People may see it like that on an individual basis, but from an industry point of view - rightly or wrongly - you're providing a seat for no additional revenue, and whilst the season ticket holder might bring family with them, that's two or three seats taken up likely by a combination of off-peak and child fares. Most people probably aren't going to write snotty letters to their MP about an overcrowded day out, they'll either suck it up, or take the car next time. In any case, this problem may die down in a couple of months time when the inflated gas bills start filtering through!