Russia invades Ukraine

[Cloud Strife]

I don't think we can reasonably offer him any strategy that allows him to keep any of Ukraine - and certainly no territory that he's gained recently - unless Ukraine decides that's acceptable: To try to do so would be a betrayal of Ukraine. And it's really up to Ukraine, not us, to decide what deal they are willing to accept to end the war. That means it's probably not possible to offer an exit strategy until Ukraine has retaken most of its land (assuming that does eventually happen) - and at that point it's likely that much of the Russian military will be desperate to end the war. Once that's happened, we'll probably be in a position to work with Ukraine to offer something that motivates Russia to agree a peace treaty.

There is a question over exactly what Russia can agree to right now as well. Most analysts seem to suggest that a return to the February 23 borders is the minimum, but if Ukraine is in a position where they're nearly at those borders, why would they stop?

 

[Cdd89]

I don't think we can reasonably offer him any strategy that allows him to keep any of Ukraine - and certainly no territory that he's gained recently - unless Ukraine decides that's acceptable

While I agree with you in principle, wanting to see Putin crushed is not likely to be a quick end to the conflict. Again, what motivation does Putin have to agree to that? He may as well go on fighting to the end (NB that Russia is still trying to maintain a thin shred of international respect; we haven’t even begun with the escalations they could deploy if they determine they have nothing to lose).

 

[Russel]

They could just blow up the northern side of it. That way Russians will be able to leave, but going in will be impossible without breaking traffic laws

Think of any war crime and the chances are a the Russians have committed it at some point since 24th February, I'm not sure they are going to pay too much attention to road traffic laws...

 

[najaB]

Same as the United States et al. then.

True. Zero relevance to the point though.

 

[Giugiaro]

My biggest concern with the Kerch bridge is how its destruction will impact the social, economic and cultural significance it'll have in the two countries in the long run.
If we get to that.

Its strategic importance cannot be denied. But I wonder how its preservation can help the two countries get back to grips in the future.

I am still all in on the Ukrainians using it to spook the Russians into committing forces to defend it, while taking down much more annoying and dangerous targets, both closer and further from the frontlines.

 

[ainsworth74]

My biggest concern with the Kerch bridge is how its destruction will impact the social, economic and cultural significance it'll have in the two countries in the long run.
If we get to that.

It's worth noting that the bridge is very new, as in, it opened in 2018 new. Prior to that there were no bridges linking Crimea to Russia. It is, depending on your point of view, a part of Russian's imperialist ambitions by giving it greater access to the region it has annexed for itself. I doubt Ukraine would shed many tears if it was destroyed and wouldn't be too worried about the damage that might do to any social, economic or cultural links that might result.

 

[Cloud Strife]

My biggest concern with the Kerch bridge is how its destruction will impact the social, economic and cultural significance it'll have in the two countries in the long run.
If we get to that.

It's clear at this point that Ukraine is 'lost' to the Russian world. Even the Russian speakers in Kharkiv, Odesa and elsewhere are making great attempts at giving up their use of Russian. A friend of mine (ethnic Russian, Russian speaking) has been using her downtime to study Ukrainian, despite barely using it in her life.

Its strategic importance cannot be denied. But I wonder how its preservation can help the two countries get back to grips in the future.

The problem is that Russia, culturally, doesn't really understand anything except a fist to the face. For us, it makes sense to offer the preservation of the Kerch Bridge in exchange for Russian forces giving up Kherson without a fight, but for Russia, they would rather see the Kerch Bridge blasted into oblivion than compromise.

On related news, I have a strong feeling that the car bomb attack in Moscow was a false flag operation. The level of the hysteria from pro-Kremlin commentators is suspicious in itself, especially combined with the intelligence that Russia will do something on the 24th August. For them, killing someone's daughter is no big deal, even if she was a useful idiot to them in the past.

 

[Giugiaro]

It is, depending on your point of view, a part of Russian's imperialist ambitions by giving it greater access to the region it has annexed for itself.

Absolutely. How else would Russia rush such an enormous and expensive project in record time?

I do, however, understand how important are bridges in their cultural and economic significance. Both in times of peace, as well as in times of war.
It's no coincidence that the Euro uses bridges on the back side of its banknotes. It's also no coincidence they're the first things destroyed when Russia or Ukraine sets a siege.

We build bridges to better connect with each other during times of peace. However, in war, we destroy them.

 

[najaB]

On related news, I have a strong feeling that the car bomb attack in Moscow was a false flag operation. The level of the hysteria from pro-Kremlin commentators is suspicious in itself, especially combined with the intelligence that Russia will do something on the 24th August. For them, killing someone's daughter is no big deal, even if she was a useful idiot to them in the past.

In order of likelihood, I would say it was:

1. Chechnian or similar oppressed group seeking to strike a blow against Putin via his inner circle, while he is in a weakened position
2. False flag operation
3. Russian organised criminals also trying to strike Putin while he is weak
4. A leaking petrol tank
5. A meteorite impact
6. Ukrainian intelligence services operation

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I might be missing something here - is there any particular reason to discount the Ukrainian intelligence from being behind this?

 

[brad465]

In order of likelihood, I would say it was:

1. Chechnian or similar oppressed group seeking to strike a blow against Putin via his inner circle, while he is in a weakened position
2. False flag operation
3. Russian organised criminals also trying to strike Putin while he is weak
4. A leaking petrol tank
5. A meteorite impact
6. Ukrainian intelligence services operation

 

[takno]

I might be missing something here - is there any particular reason to discount the Ukrainian intelligence from being behind this?

It would be a huge logistical effort for a country who are busy elsewhere, and it isn't particularly useful to Ukraine, since it weakens the argument that Russia is the aggressor and it's not some kind of even-handed stramash. Moreover, they'd probably have picked a more interesting target - even her father is too distant from the inner circle, and merely considered a useful idiot by Putin

 

[najaB]

I might be missing something here - is there any particular reason to discount the Ukrainian intelligence from being behind this?

In short, it is a lot of effort for very little gain.

 

[Loppylugs]

Inside job. Support for the SMO is on the wane so knock off a relatively well-known female, (make sure the old man doesn't go with her), blame the Ukrainians and get the sympathy vote from the nation which spurs the locals to support said operation. SIMPLES

 

[Giugiaro]

I just watched this near 2-hour video in a single go.

I know it doesn't have to do with the war in Ukraine... directly... BUT I do recommend everyone to watch it!

 

[Cloud Strife]

I might be missing something here - is there any particular reason to discount the Ukrainian intelligence from being behind this?

Mainly that Ukrainian intelligence wouldn't bother with such a target. They'd be much more likely to go for someone like the provincial governor in
Belgorod, because this is what would strike fear into the Kremlin's inner circle. The daughter of a minor blowhard just isn't worthwhile.

 

[brad465]

But I think the whole Kerch Bridge has been hyped up for one reason: to force Russia to commit considerable resources to its defence. It's also had the effect of implanting the idea within people in Crimea that if the Kerch Bridge falls, then Russia's occupation of Crimea also falls. All of this creates a siege mentality and growing desperation among ordinary people to end the war, especially when combined with things going boom in the night.

The Ukraine Ministry of Defence are now actively trolling Russia regarding this bridge:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1561775821257379840

Kerch bridge… we are watching you!

Video attached

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

The Ukraine Ministry of Defence are now actively trolling Russia regarding this bridge:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1561775821257379840

Video attached

If Ukraine succeeds in regaining control of Crimea (not a given regardless of the current prognosis) I suspect that any conflict ending settlement would include "permanent dismantling" of the Kerch bridge as a specific condition.

 

[brad465]

So as some may have seen/heard, tomorrow is both Independence Day in Ukraine and the 6 month anniversary of the invasion launch, with concerns about Russia launching strikes specifically because of the date. Large celebrations have been banned in an attempt to limit the impacts of such attacks. I do wonder if it's possible that Russia won't do much tomorrow but may do on a later date this week to try and catch Ukraine off guard?

 

[Russel]

So as some may have seen/heard, tomorrow is both Independence Day in Ukraine and the 6 month anniversary of the invasion launch, with concerns about Russia launching strikes specifically because of the date. Large celebrations have been banned in an attempt to limit the impacts of such attacks. I do wonder if it's possible that Russia won't do much tomorrow but may do on a later date this week to try and catch Ukraine off guard?

Assuming the Russians have enough missiles left to launch an attack...

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Assuming the Russians have enough missiles left to launch an attack...

Does anyone think that China will have re-equipped Russia as part of the recently reported solidarity pact?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Does anyone think that China will have re-equipped Russia as part of the recently reported solidarity pact?

No. China plays the very long game, and that game in this case is the fall of Russian energy assets into Chinese hands.

Equipping Russia means Russia wins the war. If Russia loses, then they will have no choice but to hand over large amounts of energy for cheap to China, which is very much in their interest.

A bloody revolution in Russia would be even better for the Chinese, as they could invade Siberia and seize control of Russian assets with zero opposition.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Equipping Russia means Russia wins the war. If Russia loses, then they will have no choice but to hand over large amounts of energy for cheap to China, which is very much in their interest.

I'm not sure if that logic works? The thing that will force Russia to hand over large amounts of cheap energy to China will be if Western sanctions continue/get more entrenched, so they can't sell any energy to the West long term. I would have thought that Russia losing the war and therefore being forced to quit Ukraine altogether is actually the thing most likely to trigger a relaxation of sanctions, no?

A bloody revolution in Russia would be even better for the Chinese, as they could invade Siberia and seize control of Russian assets with zero opposition.

Has China ever made any claim to Siberian lands?

 

[DC1989]

I'm sure China would have preferred the status quo, they are no doubt learning alot due to Russia's failures.

What keeps American defence chiefs awake at night is fighting a war on two fronts. If they can weaken Russia enough so that it ceases to be a significant threat and can be dealt by Europe alone that that means they can focus completely on China. It's why America is giving so much money to Ukraine, even if they increased their aid x 10 it would be an incredibly cheap way to permanently weaken a foreign aggressor

 

[Cloud Strife]

I'm not sure if that logic works? The thing that will force Russia to hand over large amounts of cheap energy to China will be if Western sanctions continue/get more entrenched, so they can't sell any energy to the West long term. I would have thought that Russia losing the war and therefore being forced to quit Ukraine altogether is actually the thing most likely to trigger a relaxation of sanctions, no?

Well, the thing is that if the West finds alternative sources of fuel, they simply won't have any motivation to back to the previous status quo. That means Russia will be left trying to sell energy at a discount, further weakening them and potentially causing the Russian Federation to collapse economically. China is not stupid: they can only gain as the war goes on.

Has China ever made any claim to Siberian lands?

No need to make claims, it's enough to wait for a civil war and then walk in as a protector. The people in Siberia and the Far East are not ethnic Russians, and so they might have nothing against fellow Asians coming in to protect them against the European Russian elites.

I'm sure China would have preferred the status quo, they are no doubt learning alot due to Russia's failures.

I suspect that China is now well aware that American-made equipment can tear through defences, and this might well be causing some anxiety on their part. However, I think there's an understanding between the Americans and Chinese that competition is fine, but that neither side wants to get involved in serious warfare. The Chinese are not the Russians, who seem to have an undeniable need for blood and warfare.

 

[Giugiaro]

Has China ever made any claim to Siberian lands?

Vladivostok used to be Chinese territory and was called Haishenwai. The area of current Primorsky Krai is claimed by China.

 

[oldman]

The people in Siberia and the Far East are not ethnic Russians, and so they might have nothing against fellow Asians coming in to protect them against the European Russian elites.

The vast majority are ethnic European and even those who aren't might not like the Chinese government's approach to their non-Chinese subjects (Tibetans, Uighurs).

 

[TheEdge]

If they can weaken Russia enough so that it ceases to be a significant threat and can be dealt by Europe alone...

Tick, done. The Russian's did that for them 5 and a bit months ago when Operation Desert Stormski fell flat on its face.

 

[Cloud Strife]

And so Russia has resorted to attacking civilians yet again, by killing at least 25 civilians on a train.

Yet this is only going to stiffen Western resolve, and such attacks do nothing except build support for further Western support in Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

Is this the next step towards a full mobilisation?

Putin boosts Russian troop numbers by more than 10%

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to add more than 137,000 service personnel to the country's armed forces.

Currently Russia has slightly more than a million military personnel and almost 900,000 civilian staff.

The decree comes amid a recruitment drive around the country, with large cash incentives on offer.

Western officials say 70-80,000 troops have been killed or wounded since Russia invaded Ukraine six months ago.

There have been reports that recruiters have even been visiting prisons, promising inmates freedom and money.

Putin orders 10% boost in Russian troop numbers

The Russian president signs a decree to add 137,000 service personnel to the million-strong army.

www.bbc.co.uk