Overcrowding on rural/'regional' services

[LowLevel]

Yes it's like the pandemic never happened on the East Anglian branch lines. Odd to think the Stadlers have been operating over 3 years now on these routes. Such a game changer.

It seems to knock on. Even the EMR 158s are regularly clocking 3 figure passenger loadings leaving Norwich, they're busier than I remember them being pre COVID.

 

[The exile]

No different in BR days when the Treasury required 2 new next gen DMU cars replaced 3 first gen DMUs.

Or two car 155s vs 5 Mk1s

 

[BrianW]

Exactly, the spare coaches/units on BR were almost all eliminated in the period before Privatisation. It was a process that had been steadily going on since the 1960’s and by 1994 there was hardly anything left.

It had nothing to do with privatisation or private operators. The Treasury view has always been that this extra traffic should be priced off, so as to reduce the need for extra stock. Every time you renewed a fleet in BR days they were looking for savings in fleet numbers.

When I was involved in a recent GWR direct award, we had real problems with the DfT over the St Ives - initially they didn’t see the need for a second unit in summer and wanted to rip another 150 unit off GWR!

When I was on Anglia and putting extra local services in, we were accused by the SRA of being “too close to the customer”!

Aka 'sweating the assets'?

Like NHs beds, ambulances etc, you cannot plan for 1005 occupancy/ utilisation. 'Spare' capacity/ contingency is necessary to avoid overcrowding and resultant customer dissatisfaction even for those with a seat.

 

[The exile]

Aka 'sweating the assets'?

Like NHs beds, ambulances etc, you cannot plan for 1005 occupancy/ utilisation. 'Spare' capacity/ contingency is necessary to avoid overcrowding and resultant customer dissatisfaction even for those with a seat.

Something which pen-pushers in back offices sporting all kinds of theoretical qualifications never seem to understand - no matter what sector they’re in.

 

[yoyothehobo]

But what do you do with the carriages on the 95% of services where they are not needed.

I assume you bump up the fares to pay for them, of course it will reduce demand but you have the carriages.

I guess the crux of the matter is that a large number of Railforums members want 12 carriage, loco hauled services through every rural backwater, with direct services between every minor town along the way, but for cheaper than an pint of milk. It was like this before privitisation.

 

[Starmill]

Exactly, the spare coaches/units on BR were almost all eliminated in the period before Privatisation. It was a process that had been steadily going on since the 1960’s and by 1994 there was hardly anything left.

It had nothing to do with privatisation or private operators. The Treasury view has always been that this extra traffic should be priced off, so as to reduce the need for extra stock. Every time you renewed a fleet in BR days they were looking for savings in fleet numbers.

When I was involved in a recent GWR direct award, we had real problems with the DfT over the St Ives - initially they didn’t see the need for a second unit in summer and wanted to rip another 150 unit off GWR!

When I was on Anglia and putting extra local services in, we were accused by the SRA of being “too close to the customer”!

The flip side is equally unattractive. For example TransPennine Express has a fleet which is far, far too large for what is reasonably going to be required and what they can feasibly run in the next few years, even with them taking on a small amount of extra work, and of course part of it is sat in sidings never used, costing money in storage.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==

But what do you do with the carriages on the 95% of services where they are not needed.

I assume you bump up the fares to pay for them, of course it will reduce demand but you have the carriages.

I guess the crux of the matter is that a large number of Railforums members want 12 carriage, loco hauled services through every rural backwater, with direct services between every minor town along the way, but for cheaper than an pint of milk. It was like this before privitisation.

The more sensible operators have long term contracts to supply stand-by buses and drivers, ready to go at the peak holiday weekends (such as this coming weekend). For example Transport for Wales at Machynlleth, although it helps that Lloyd's Coaches have their depot literally right opposite the station.

 

[northwichcat]

Depends how you define rural services. You could say Chester to Altrincham is semi-rural and there can be overcrowding, especially between Knutsford and Altrincham and along the entire section on Chester Race Days and when there's events on. But the service continues to Stockport and Manchester, which are definitely not rural.

Sheffield to Lincoln goes through some very rural areas but again Sheffield is certainly not rural.

 

[The exile]

But what do you do with the carriages on the 95% of services where they are not needed.

I assume you bump up the fares to pay for them, of course it will reduce demand but you have the carriages.

I guess the crux of the matter is that a large number of Railforums members want 12 carriage, loco hauled services through every rural backwater, with direct services between every minor town along the way, but for cheaper than an pint of milk. It was like this before privitisation.

One of the issues which has been exacerbated by sectorisation /privatisation (as well as suburban electrification) has been the growing inability to use spare commuter stock at weekends elsewhere on the network. Of course, the growth on urban leisure travel at weekends and post-COVID commuting patterns are going to reduce this imbalance anyway…

 

[BrianW]

Depends how you define rural services. You could say Chester to Altrincham is semi-rural and there can be overcrowding, especially between Knutsford and Altrincham and along the entire section on Chester Race Days and when there's events on. But the service continues to Stockport and Manchester, which are definitely not rural.

Sheffield to Lincoln goes through some very rural areas but again Sheffield is certainly not rural.

I imagine the thread title and motivation stem from this:

Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays data tables RAI02

Data on rail passenger numbers, crowding and capacity, produced by the Department for Transport.

www.gov.uk

and the related attention to

Passenger numbers by city and central London station​

Crowding (PiXC) by city and for London and South East operators​

Capacity, train loading, passengers standing and crowding (PiXC) by city and central London station​

and

Crowding (PiXC) for train operators, by city and central London station​

which are the only areas evaluated in it.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Just had a week in South Devon & things are much better these days with improved frequencies & most local services 3 & 4 cars in length.

Back home & the overcrowding on the Cromer/Sheringham branch as well as the East Suffolk can be quite bad when a 755/3 is used. Makes me wonder how on earth we coped with 153s back in the day.

At least greater Anglia attempted to solve the issue pre pandemic with the new stadlers.

 

[Killingworth]

This all begs the question of perspectives. On most routes there will be many times of the day when trains run almost empty and few travellers note or comment on that. A few trains will be rammed full for parts of the journey and the crowded masses will shout out. That's only natural. We all know there's a big tidal flow element, particularly at commuting times. That's relatively easy (or was pre-Covid) to plan around.

Surges in leisure demand are much harder to work around, not least because they tend to be irregular, are greatly driven by specific events and by the weather.

Add to the mix all sorts of totally unpredictable railway hazards causing delays and cancellations with further knock-on delays to many other services. A planned for load can very quickly be overwhelmed by bumped and diverted passengers from other disrupted services.

Which begs a question. What levels of loading do passengers prefer? 100% being all seats taken

Under 25% some may feel anxious about other passengers near them, but most welcome the space.

Up to 50% is comfortable with all able to get a choice of single seats without sharing a 2 (or 3) with anyone else.

At 75% most will still have a selection of single seats available because many couples will be sitting together.

Over 75% gets more delicate. Do we ask that person with a bag on the seat to move it so we can sit next to them? Take their feet off the seat? Do we want to sit next to an old/young man/woman? Maybe opt to stand?

By 90% quite a few may be standing from choice.

By 100% there'll still be a few empty seats as above but new boarders will probably stand.

By 110% pressure will have forced most bags off seats, although there's always one.....

By this time 'the railway' will accept the service is crowded.

By 150%, depending on rolling stock and distribution down the train, passengers may be unable to board.

Crowding levels are liable to fluctuate greatly along long rural/regional routes. I'm thinking of Norwich - Liverpool and Manchester - Milford Haven as examples (both between 250 and 300 miles) although there are many others. CrossCountry may not strictly count as rural/regional but it certainly has the longest routes made up of overlapping traffic flows.

People will be attracted to trains that regularly run to timetable with loadings below 75%. Once short forms, cancellations and late running trains are factored in that desirability starts to evaporate. My experience on the three services above suggests that for sections overcrowding is likely to be deterring further custom.

What to do about it? Maybe lots more fresh air trundling around the rails in empty trains causing wear and tear on tracks and rolling stock with more staff to maintain both. Or splitting trains and causing more interchange disruption for through journeys. Other threads have already aired these views.

On my line just running all the scheduled trains at full planned length would be a very good way to eliminate congestion.

 

[dk1]

At least greater Anglia attempted to solve the issue pre pandemic with the new stadlers.

Count or blessings every day on that one.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==

It seems to knock on. Even the EMR 158s are regularly clocking 3 figure passenger loadings leaving Norwich, they're busier than I remember them being pre COVID.

Lots of their services FAS leaving Norwich or after Ely again. Now in Cromer for a few hours & not expecting a seat until after North Walsham on the way home if at all.

 

[Trainbike46]

The flip side is equally unattractive. For example TransPennine Express has a fleet which is far, far too large for what is reasonably going to be required and what they can feasibly run in the next few years, even with them taking on a small amount of extra work, and of course part of it is sat in sidings never used, costing money in storage.

Then why are TPE in the process of buying new rolling stock?

 

[Killingworth]

At least greater Anglia attempted to solve the issue pre pandemic with the new stadlers.

And very attractive they are too. As are Northern's 195s which are also attracting new custom, particularly on routes previously operated by Pacers.

 

[Trainbike46]

Count or blessings every day on that one.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==



Lots of their services FAS leaving Norwich or after Ely again. Now in Cromer for a few hours & not expecting a seat until after North Walsham on the way home if at all.

If it was necessary, could GA run the 755s as 6/7/8 car on the rural routes?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==

I do get why they're popular!

Level boarding, nice seats, way more space than before

 

[yorksrob]

The flip side is equally unattractive. For example TransPennine Express has a fleet which is far, far too large for what is reasonably going to be required and what they can feasibly run in the next few years, even with them taking on a small amount of extra work, and of course part of it is sat in sidings never used, costing money in storage.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==


The more sensible operators have long term contracts to supply stand-by buses and drivers, ready to go at the peak holiday weekends (such as this coming weekend). For example Transport for Wales at Machynlleth, although it helps that Lloyd's Coaches have their depot literally right opposite the station.

I'm not convinced that TPE does have too much stock. It needs to be a 5/6 carriage railway, and with full services operating at these lengths, isn't it likely that the stock ought to be being used.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==

Or, why put on extra carriages that don’t exist?

Well, if all spare units are scrapped at the first opportunity, they're not going to exist.

 

[nickswift99]

One of the issues which has been exacerbated by sectorisation /privatisation (as well as suburban electrification) has been the growing inability to use spare commuter stock at weekends elsewhere on the network. Of course, the growth on urban leisure travel at weekends and post-COVID commuting patterns are going to reduce this imbalance anyway…

Although we've recently seen the reverse of this with GWR commuter stock (387s) being used as queue busters to Bristol and South Wales, something which was technically possible with the Turbos but highly undesirable due to their performance.

 

[Starmill]

I'm not convinced that TPE does have too much stock. It needs to be a 5/6 carriage railway, and with full services operating at these lengths, isn't it likely that the stock ought to be being used.

By definition they have too much, because they're only able to deploy between one and four locomotive hauled train sets a day when you would expect ten or eleven to be out. They are unable to plan for more than around seven in the future too.

It has been agreed that they may keep paying for the balance of 185s to cover during the Transpennine Route Upgrade works too. All of this is extra money being spent unnecessarily.

The Huddersfield to Leeds and Huddersfield to Manchester Piccadilly stopping services are going to be three cars for the foreseeable future anyway.

 

[yorksrob]

By definition they have too much, because they're only able to deploy between one and four locomotive hauled train sets a day when you would expect ten or eleven to be out. They are unable to plan for more than around seven in the future too.

It has been agreed that they may keep paying for the balance of 185s to cover during the Transpennine Rout Upgrade works too. All of this is extra money being spent unnecessarily.

If we will insist on leasing trains ....

Ideally they might think about marshalling some of the mk 5's into longer crowd busting sets.

 

[Starmill]

If we will insist on leasing trains ....

Ideally they might think about marshalling some of the mk 5's into longer crowd busting sets.

They have been ordered with fixed couplings and can't just be remarshalled.

 

[yorksrob]

They have been ordered with fixed couplings and can't just be remarshalled.

More modern lunacy !

In my view, get a full TPE service up and running, then see how we can use whatevers left over.

 

[Trainbike46]

By definition they have too much, because they're only able to deploy between one and four locomotive hauled train sets a day when you would expect ten or eleven to be out. They are unable to plan for more than around seven in the future too.

It has been agreed that they may keep paying for the balance of 185s to cover during the Transpennine Route Upgrade works too. All of this is extra money being spent unnecessarily.

The Huddersfield to Leeds and Huddersfield to Manchester Piccadilly stopping services are going to be three cars for the foreseeable future anyway.

If all this is true, then why are they looking at ordering more stock (including potentially more loco-hauled stock!)

 

[Starmill]

If all this is true, then why are they looking at ordering more stock (including potentially more loco-hauled stock!)

Because the mark 5s at the moment are so poor that it may actually be cheaper to buy new trains than to try to keep them at low long term utilisation. Also as a possible decarbonisation solution. But this is getting rather off topic.

 

[dk1]

If it was necessary, could GA run the 755s as 6/7/8 car on the rural routes?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==

I do get why they're popular!

Level boarding, nice seats, way more space than before

Unfortunately only 4-car max on local routes.

 

[Trainbike46]

Unfortunately only 4-car max on local routes.

Ah, I guess that would have seemed as more than enough in the past. Would the required works to allow 6-car workings on (some of) them be large?

Alternatively, is there any chance of frequency improvements to offer more capacity?

 

[Starmill]

Ah, I guess that would have seemed as more than enough in the past. Would the required works to allow 6-car workings on (some of) them be large?

Alternatively, is there any chance of frequency improvements to offer more capacity?

Already the case for Great Yarmouth. Some additional fast services between Norwich and Great Yarmouth Monday and Friday only 18/07/2022 to 02/09/2022. Also some on Saturdays.

 

[dk1]

Ah, I guess that would have seemed as more than enough in the past. Would the required works to allow 6-car workings on (some of) them be large?

Alternatively, is there any chance of frequency improvements to offer more capacity?

The single lines complicate things but certainly there are easy fixes like half-hourly North Walsham & additional Yarmouths as happen MFSO during the summer. Ipswich to Lowestoft & Cambridge have already been doubled to hourly. Norwich to Lowestoft & Ipswich to Felixstowe dont really warrant any increase. Ipswich to Peterborough requires infrastructure upgrades first. This leaves Norwich to Cambridge/Stansted. The popularity of the return of air travel is causing some capacity issues onboard already. Some relief services have run recently mainly due to events such as football & Cambridge Strawberry Fair but also when engineering works affect the Intercity route to Liverpool St.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Which begs a question. What levels of loading do passengers prefer? 100% being all seats taken

People don't want to sit next to each other. So I'd say "no more than 50%" in a 2+2 layout if everyone is travelling alone, though in practice they're not so it's a bit more than that.

However, change that 2+2 to 3+1 and that becomes 3/4! (For 2+1 it's 2/3).

I've long failed to understand why we aren't more innovative with layouts. Even for 3+2 it's 3/5, which is one big upside of it. But there is a lot going for a 3+1 layout. It gives you the same capacity as the 2+2 layout, but allows you far more passengers before it "feels crowded" than 2+2.

 

[dk1]

Already the case for Great Yarmouth. Some additional fast services between Norwich and Great Yarmouth Monday and Friday only 18/07/2022 to 02/09/2022. Also some on Saturdays.

There are up to 3tph (usually 2) on Saturdays May-September and have been for several years partly due to the withdrawal of the through London trains. This is still a far cry from the days before the late 80s when direct services came in from the Midlands & North. Great Yarmouth isn't what it once was sadly.

 

[station_road]

I've long failed to understand why we aren't more innovative with layouts. Even for 3+2 it's 3/5, which is one big upside of it. But there is a lot going for a 3+1 layout. It gives you the same capacity as the 2+2 layout, but allows you far more passengers before it "feels crowded" than 2+2.

Because when you say that people don't want to sit next to each other, what I suspect most actually want is no-one between them and the aisle - 3+1 doesn't fix that