Possible AC EMU future cascade scenarios?

[tbtc]

… but the capacity problems people on here keep moaning about (Marshlink and Whitby, in @yorksrob ’s case) aren’t going to be cured by five coach pure EMUs - so what would these five trains actually be suited to?

Speculating about this kind of thing used to be fun a decade ago, when various options hadn’t been actually tried, but firms have tried to create reliable bi-mode EMUs by sticking engines underneath the body, we’ve got a hydrogen conversion programme, we’ve tried to make some ancient EMUs ‘as good as new’ (Renatus) we’ve seen some used for parcels/ freight work ( which is what ROC intended for the 360s) and had some limited successes, but nothing that seems like a viable long term home for large numbers of older EMUs

For example, nobody seriously expects ScotRail ‘s Sprinter replacement to be patched up 1980s EMUs, they’ll order new trains and do it properly instead

we eventually have to get to the part where we accept that a bigger “waste of money” would be keeping twenty five carriages sat exposed indefinitely in a siding (needing some security/ maintenance etc) rather than cashing in on scrap metal prices

 

[USRailFan]

Seriously, scrapping trainsets that are, what, 15 years old?

 

[CR165022]

Looks like another one is off for scrap, 5Q76 is en route at the moment

 

[DanNCL]

Apologies if I've missed this, but how intensively were the 360/2s used in the end? When the 332s went for scrap there were many on here saying despite a relatively short life the intensive use they saw hastened their decline. 360/2s obviously operated the same route, albeit they are a different class and behaved differently regarding calling patterns and operating speeds.

They had a much less intensive lifespan than the 332s. Though there were 4 daily diagrams for the 5 strong fleet, one of those diagrams was the Terminal 4 shuttle.

The 360/2s were limited to use on Heathrow - Paddington stoppers for 15 years, then were placed into store from 2020 with both HEX and later ROG following their purchase of the fleet.

This wasn’t entirely the case. The 360/2s throughout their lives up until the TFL Rail takeover made occasional appearances on the express when the 332s were suffering from poor availability, and indeed for a few weeks in 2016 the 360/2s ran the entire service on the express.

 

[43066]

Apologies if I've missed this, but how intensively were the 360/2s used in the end? When the 332s went for scrap there were many on here saying despite a relatively short life the intensive use they saw hastened their decline. 360/2s obviously operated the same route, albeit they are a different class and behaved differently regarding calling patterns and operating speeds.

Difficult to imagine it was particularly intensive compared to a lot of other stock on the network.

 

[skyhigh]

Seriously, scrapping trainsets that are, what, 15 years old?

17-18 years. And have no prospect of future work.

 

[bramling]

There are plenty of spare electric units even without the 360/2s.

And this is the problem, we’ve built too many EMUs when we didn’t need to, meanwhile remain short of DMUs. It was foreseen on here that there would be a massive surplus of EMUs, so surely DFT should have been able to see that too?

Apart from the ownership, there’s little difference between the 360/2s and the large fleet of 350/360s successfully operating with three TOCs. Indeed the 350/2s themselves are on the danger list too, despite being a pretty successful design of train.

We shouldn’t be in this position, and whilst Covid hasn’t helped I don’t think this is the main cause.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2022 ==

Difficult to imagine it was particularly intensive compared to a lot of other stock on the network.

I seem to remember the notion that the 332s had been intensively worked was to some extent debunked on here at the time.

 

[adc82140]

Seriously, scrapping trainsets that are, what, 15 years old?

There is no use for them. That's the nature of microfleets. Ordered for a specific purpose, then finished with. Had there been an open access operator wanting to start an electric service somewhere requiring 5 units, they may have found a home. But there wasn't. I don't doubt that ROG has spent a fair amount of time trying to spot hire these out, with no takers. No TOC wants the maintenence and training burden these would bring.

 

[43066]

I seem to remember the notion that the 332s had been intensively worked was to some extent debunked on here at the time.

That would stand to reason. A short route with relatively generous dwells, as I recall, and of course no off airport intermediate stops for the 332s.

 

[RailWonderer]

I had a sneaking suspicion. Given the 37 strong fleet of 350/2s are going and the 30 379s still with no home (that GA should have kept but an entire fleet replacement was pledged to guarantee them the franchise) a subclass and micro fleet wasn’t looking good on paper. Not surprised no ROSCO was interested.

DMU conversion or fitting of shoe gear prohibitively too expensive, and TPWS fitting the same. Scotrail want only 3 car and 6 car trains and are snobby towards hand me downs and have the money to pay for brand new bespoke rolling stock (likely a 385 follow on order and a DMU version of them as well).

At least it is only 5 units.

 

[43096]

DMU conversion or fitting of shoe gear prohibitively too expensive, and TPWS fitting the same.

The 360/2s are TPWS fitted.

 

[Energy]

30 379s still with no home (that GA should have kept but an entire fleet replacement was pledged to guarantee them the franchise)

It would have left GA with a small fleet of trains which don't fit in with the rest of their fleet while they can be cascaded with either GWR or Great Northern.

and TPWS fitting the same

They already have TPWS.

and are snobby towards hand me downs

Well they took on ex LM 321s and are running them as 320s right now.

have the money to pay for brand new bespoke rolling stock (likely a 385 follow on order and a DMU version of them as well).

Not only do they have the money but the 360s wouldn't be suitable, no similarly to the rest of the fleet and Scotrail want ~23m units (on a side note they aren't ordering DMUs).

Ideally they would have joined their 360 friends around moved to LNWR instead of the 730 order.

 

[DelW]

And this is the problem, we’ve built too many EMUs when we didn’t need to, meanwhile remain short of DMUs. It was foreseen on here that there would be a massive surplus of EMUs, so surely DFT should have been able to see that too?

The 360/2s weren't anything to do with DfT. They were bought and paid for by Heathrow Airport Ltd around 17 years ago, to do a specific job - one which they did until the Elizabeth Line superseded it. Thereafter, there was nothing that they were needed or suitable for.

The DfT can be blamed for quite a few things, but not in this case.

 

[Western Sunset]

"Cascade" seems to be a forgotten term nowadays in terms of stock usage.

 

[XAM2175]

Incorrect as I drove them and they were TPWS fitted as well as ATP and AWS. 332s only had ATP and AWS.
I attach a picture of the desk of the 360/2 and top left you can see the TPWS panel.

Thanks for that.

"Cascade" seems to be a forgotten term nowadays in terms of stock usage.

Reading the whole thread seems to be a forgotten practice nowadays in terms of understanding what's happening

 

[Western Sunset]

Modern stock seems to be much more route or service specific.

 

[TheEdge]

we eventually have to get to the part where we accept that a bigger “waste of money” would be keeping twenty five carriages sat exposed indefinitely in a siding (needing some security/ maintenance etc) rather than cashing in on scrap metal prices

I keep driving past lines of HSTs and 153s at Potters at Ely and am left wondering why on Earth they aren't tin cans yet. I can't understand why someone is paying to cold store stock, outside for several years now.

 

[JonathanH]

"Cascade" seems to be a forgotten term nowadays in terms of stock usage.

No. There are plenty of examples of cascades and changes involving existing stock still happening where it is appropriate.

 

[Chopper]

It was ROG's impetus in the end. Nothing else to be done about it.

Don't forget ROG are owned by private equity, not exactly institutions famed for their long term thinking.

 

[skyhigh]

"Cascade" seems to be a forgotten term nowadays in terms of stock usage.

So the plan for 323s to replace 319s isn't happening then? Or Scotrail 156/158/170s to Northern, or the Northern 321s to Greater Anglia etc....

Given you clearly think they should be cascaded, where should they be used? Please provide a realistic suggestion that hasn't already been debunked in this thread.

 

[penguin8967]

5Q76 1001 Bicester Mod Gbrf to Newport Docks (Simsgroup)
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:71785/2022-08-24/detailed

Another unit (reportedly 360204) on the way to Newport

 

[Energy]

Modern stock seems to be much more route or service specific.

Technically they can run on any 25kv AC line here. But they are in bad condition and only 5 units isn't much use to anyone apart from EMR and LNWR, who both don't want them.

 

[swt_passenger]

Who’s to say all five are going? The original four might stay with Rail Operations Group?

That didn’t age well, the second one‘s gone now…

 

[bramling]

The 360/2s weren't anything to do with DfT. They were bought and paid for by Heathrow Airport Ltd around 17 years ago, to do a specific job - one which they did until the Elizabeth Line superseded it. Thereafter, there was nothing that they were needed or suitable for.

The DfT can be blamed for quite a few things, but not in this case.

They can be blamed for over-ordering new EMUs though, which is what has created the backdrop.

The new LNwR fleet seems to be the one which has created the issues, though GA could have waited one more franchise term with their EMU replacement and focussed on DMUs instead.

The problem is there doesn’t seem to be any actual planning, taking into account what fleets are available and when. Instead the line taken seems to be “it’s the leasing company’s problem”. The difficulty here is the leasing companies, understandably, seem to be taking the line that they will scrap unemployed rolling stock. They were never going to lease it out cheaply en-masse as that would simply drive down their returns on other fleets.

So the end result is we will be back to square one but with many vehicles scrapped, which probably won’t benefit the end-user especially if demand grows again.

I do take the point with the 360/2s specifically that this was always going to be Heathrow’s problem.

 

[43102EMR]

They had a much less intensive lifespan than the 332s. Though there were 4 daily diagrams for the 5 strong fleet, one of those diagrams was the Terminal 4 shuttle.


This wasn’t entirely the case. The 360/2s throughout their lives up until the TFL Rail takeover made occasional appearances on the express when the 332s were suffering from poor availability, and indeed for a few weeks in 2016 the 360/2s ran the entire service on the express.

Still the same route though between Paddington and Heathrow…

 

[Bletchleyite]

The new LNwR fleet seems to be the one which has created the issues

It's not created this issue, just the one with the 350/2s.

 

[43102EMR]

I think the 360/2s, as mentioned above, would have been ideal 319 replacements (albeit if the 350/2s were staying with LNR)

 

[Fincra5]

One thing the DafT can be blamed for is being party to scaling back Electrification projects that has lead to a surplus of EMUs.

As others have pointed out, the 360/2s weren't in the best condition, only a Fleet of 5, so not really much hope of finding a home.

I doubt the 350/2s or 379s will be homeless for too long but then its all down the DfT... The TOC can want more stock but the DfT have to authorise/ fund it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think the 360/2s, as mentioned above, would have been ideal 319 replacements (albeit if the 350/2s were staying with LNR)

They were one option but a weak one. Personally I'd have done 160-200m 125mph new build (i.e. 80x) for the Crewe semifast and maybe the Liverpool-Brum, then cascaded the 350s to backfill the 319s.

 

[Bill57p9]

Absolutely shocking.

In a couple of years time when we're suffering from overcrowding, there'll be some DfT half-wit whining "nah, there aren't enough trains" and we'll be saying yes, becausu you scrapped them all.

There ought to be a inquiry into this level of waste and lack of forethought.

You missed the bit where the DfT blame "the railway" for not preparing for the eventuality the DfT created.

Might ScotRail be interested in the 350/2s as "360 ish" to allow retirement of the 318s?