• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Russia invades Ukraine

Cloud Strife

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2014
Messages
2,964
If they succeed in this, not only would it be good for Ukrainian morale, but this would give hope to the rest of Europe to hold their nerve through this winter with its expected energy crisis.

I'd like to be optimistic, but I just cannot see it happening right now. Retaking Kherson will be difficult given that the Russians will have heavily fortified the city, although one possibility is to leave Kherson while attacking further to the east.

It seems much more likely that Ukraine will concentrate on fortifying the existing frontlines. It's working well, look at the situation west of Donetsk where Russia has completely failed to make meaningful progress while constantly taking out Russian targets. If, and it's a big if, the US delivers more HIMARS systems and ammo, then they might be able to achieve dominance in Kherson as they'll simply be able to take out targets in real time. Russia then won't be able to move equipment without getting attacked, which would change the course of the war.

Unfortunately, with the war evolving into a relatively frozen conflict, there's a real concern that the West will move towards a policy of enabling the defence of Ukrainian-held territory rather than on allowing them to regain territory.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Cloud Strife

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2014
Messages
2,964
What on earth is going on in Crimea? The Polish media are reporting explosions at a military airport near Sevastopol, which is around 260km from the front line in Kherson, or 300km from Odesa. If we're seeing Ukraine being able to hit targets at will in Crimea with whatever it is they have, the only option for Russia will be to relocate those assets out of the area.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,668
Location
Scotland
What on earth is going on in Crimea? The Polish media are reporting explosions at a military airport near Sevastopol, which is around 260km from the front line in Kherson, or 300km from Odesa. If we're seeing Ukraine being able to hit targets at will in Crimea with whatever it is they have, the only option for Russia will be to relocate those assets out of the area.
I saw that as well. Apparently there have been explosions at/near the airbase, though the Russians are claiming that nothing of value has been hit, they say that they shot down a Ukrainian UAV.
 

brad465

Veteran Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
11,470
Location
Taunton or Kent
What on earth is going on in Crimea? The Polish media are reporting explosions at a military airport near Sevastopol, which is around 260km from the front line in Kherson, or 300km from Odesa. If we're seeing Ukraine being able to hit targets at will in Crimea with whatever it is they have, the only option for Russia will be to relocate those assets out of the area.
There are also reports/footage of explosions/fire in Belgorod, which is in Russia the other side of the border to Kharkiv:


Things aren’t looking good in Belgorod, Russia

Video attached.
 

Cloud Strife

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2014
Messages
2,964
There are also reports/footage of explosions/fire in Belgorod, which is in Russia the other side of the border to Kharkiv:

And also anti-aircraft fire reported in Kerch! Some say explosions, though I suspect that it was rather the sound of something being intercepted.

But again: what on earth is wrong with Russia's anti-aircraft defences if something got very close to the Kerch Bridge?
 

Yew

Established Member
Joined
12 Mar 2011
Messages
7,234
Location
UK
And also anti-aircraft fire reported in Kerch! Some say explosions, though I suspect that it was rather the sound of something being intercepted.

But again: what on earth is wrong with Russia's anti-aircraft defences if something got very close to the Kerch Bridge?
If it was an aircraft, It'd be a very difficult challenge for them to get in - however a ballistic missile like a Grom-2 that's fairly standard interception pattern. The kinetic energy requirements to intercept it when it's high in the atmosphere are incredibly high, however on final approach it's a target for a much wider range of systems.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,668
Location
Scotland
Bu
If it was an aircraft, It'd be a very difficult challenge for them to get in - however a ballistic missile like a Grom-2 that's fairly standard interception pattern. The kinetic energy requirements to intercept it when it's high in the atmosphere are incredibly high, however on final approach it's a target for a much wider range of systems.
Conversely, while the initial kinetic energy requirements are lower (since you don't have to get as high) the target is moving exponentially faster, meaning that a small error in the targeting solution means a huge miss distance. And, unlike intercepting an aircraft, it isn't enough to throw up a large cloud of shrapnel and hope that pieces get sucked into an air intake or similar - warheads are small and pretty dense so pretty much require a direct hit to kill.

This is why the US has spent a lot of money on dedicated systems for boost-phase, mid-course and terminal phase interception, with the most success coming in boost-phase and mid-course interception. Boost-phase because the target is large, slow and putting out a lot of IR energy, and mid-phase because (assuming you can get up there) the target is moving slowly.

S300/S400 tries to be both anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic missile in a single system and, from reports, while it's reasonably capable as the former it is seriously lacking in the latter role.
 

brad465

Veteran Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
11,470
Location
Taunton or Kent
According to Western Officials, the recent attacks on Crimea are having a psychological impact on Russia:


Ukrainian strikes on Crimea are having major psychological and operational effects on Moscow's forces, Western officials have told journalists.
Explosions at the Saki airbase on 9 August and other assaults have put more than half of the Black Sea fleet's naval jets out of action, they said.
The fleet has a revered history, but it has suffered a series of humiliations since the invasion began in February.
Officials said the setbacks have forced it to adopt a defensive posture.
In March, the fleet's flagship, the cruiser Moskva, was sunk by Ukraine. The 510-crew missile cruiser had led Russia's naval assault on Ukraine, and its sinking was a major symbolic and military blow.
At the time, the Russian defence ministry said ammunition on board the Moskva exploded in an unexplained fire, and the ship tipped over while being towed back to port.
In June, the fleet suffered another embarrassment when it was forced to abandon Snake Island, a tiny outpost in the north-west of the Black Sea seized by Russia on the first day of its invasion, after coming under sustained Ukrainian bombardment.
In recent weeks, the fleet's home in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, has come under attack from Ukrainian forces.
At least eight fighter jets were destroyed in the bombardment of Saki airbase on 9 August.
Following the attacks, scores of holidaymakers were seen fleeing the peninsula, which was previously untouched by fighting. Images acquired by the BBC showed queues of traffic on roads leading out of Crimea three days after the attack.
The 9 August strikes were not the only apparent Ukrainian strikes in Crimea.
In July, Russian officials alleged that a Ukrainian drone attack forced an end to Navy Day celebrations in Sevastopol, and on 16 August there were explosions at at arms depot on the peninsula.

The fact that explosions in Crimea - a place previously considered to be well beyond the reach of any Ukrainian attack - were watched by thousands of Russian tourists, many of whom have since fled Crimea back into Russia, has had a psychological effect in Moscow, officials told the media.
The Western officials, who spoke unattributably on background, meaning they cannot be named, said that Russia's Black Sea fleet has been reduced to little more than a coastal flotilla that is now having to adopt a cautious attitude due to Ukrainian attacks.
They added that Russia's ability to launch an assault on the port of Odesa in western Ukraine is highly unlikely in the short term.
On Wednesday, Russian state media reported that the fleet's commander, Igor Osipov, had been replaced in light of the attacks. The RIA news agency said the fleet's new chief, Viktor Sokolov, has been introduced to military leaders at the port of Sevastopol.
Moscow also seems to be trying to re-arm its beleaguered fleet. State media reported that Admiral Sokolov told a group of young officers that they will receive 12 new vessels, alongside additional aviation and land-based vehicles later this year.
He insisted that the fleet has been "successfully completing all the tasks set for it" during the invasion, Russia's Tass news agency reported.
But on Wednesday, UK defence officials said that the Kremlin's plans have been "undermined" by the navy's failure to assume full control over the Black Sea.
The Black Sea fleet has generally pursued an "extremely defensive" position and remained near the Crimean coast, they said.
 

TheEdge

Established Member
Joined
29 Nov 2012
Messages
4,498
Location
Norwich

brad465

Veteran Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
11,470
Location
Taunton or Kent
Huh. Turns out Russian civilians don't like being in an active warzone either.

Who'da thunk it?
There have also been more drone attack reports in Crimea; Russia claim to have shot down one, which is plausible, but even so this will show even more visible war activity to Russian citizens.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,668
Location
Scotland
There have also been more drone attack reports in Crimea; Russia claim to have shot down one, which is plausible, but even so this will show even more visible war activity to Russian citizens.
Indeed. For Russia to say that they've shot down a drone over Crimea is means that Russia has to admit that the Ukrainians are able to fly drones over Crimea.
 

TheEdge

Established Member
Joined
29 Nov 2012
Messages
4,498
Location
Norwich
Indeed. For Russia to say that they've shot down a drone over Crimea is means that Russia has to admit that the Ukrainians are able to fly drones over Crimea.

The more things that happen in or to Crimea the harder and harder it becomes for Russia to claim at home that its winning.

Now would someone blow up the Kerch Bridge already...
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
9,213
Location
SE London
No. They need to keep it intact (for now) so that it's easier for Russia to leave.

I also wonder whether there's another problem with destroying the Kerch Bridge: It's - as far as I'm aware - heavily used by civilian traffic as well as military (though if Russian tourists get scared of going to Crimea, perhaps that will change). That means it might be difficult to destroy it without the risk of substantial civilian casualties - which would not only be a problem in itself, but also hand Putin a huge propaganda victory.
 

takno

Verified Rep - Traksy
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
6,588
No. They need to keep it intact (for now) so that it's easier for Russia to leave.
They could just blow up the northern side of it. That way Russians will be able to leave, but going in will be impossible without breaking traffic laws
 

brad465

Veteran Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
11,470
Location
Taunton or Kent
They could just blow up the northern side of it. That way Russians will be able to leave, but going in will be impossible without breaking traffic laws
There are 2 problems I can see here: firstly one slight error/inaccuracy and you could hit both or the wrong one, second, what's to stop Russia turning the remaining bridge into 2-way flow to get round the traffic law issue?
 

Cowley

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
15 Apr 2016
Messages
18,919
Location
Devon
There are 2 problems I can see here: firstly one slight error/inaccuracy and you could hit both or the wrong one, second, what's to stop Russia turning the remaining bridge into 2-way flow to get round the traffic law issue?

That’s where the diversion signs come in. ;)
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,668
Location
Scotland
They could just blow up the northern side of it. That way Russians will be able to leave, but going in will be impossible without breaking traffic laws
Good point. Russia will invade other countries, meddle in elections, murder, rape and steal but one thing they'll never do is break traffic laws! :D
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
9,213
Location
SE London
They could just blow up the northern side of it. That way Russians will be able to leave, but going in will be impossible without breaking traffic laws

But what happens if the Russians do their usual trick of kidnapping Ukrainian civilians and taking them back to Russia? Ukraine wouldn't then be able to get them back without breaking the same traffic laws! ;)
 

brad465

Veteran Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
11,470
Location
Taunton or Kent
BREAKING NEWS!

Russia has managed to get to the centre of Kyiv!
Reminds me of the following Venn diagram:

1661012183205.png




== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The daughter of a key Putin ally has been killed in Moscow by a car bomb, with her father potentially being the intended target:


The daughter of a close ally of Russia's President Vladimir Putin has been killed in a suspected car bomb.
Darya Dugina died after an explosion on a road outside Moscow, Russia's investigative committee said.
It is thought her father, the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin who is known as "Putin's brain," may have been the intended target of the attack.
Mr Dugin is a prominent ultra-nationalist ideologue who is believed to be close to the Russian president.
Alexander Dugin and his daughter had been at a festival at an estate near Moscow, where the philosopher gave a lecture.
The "Tradition" festival describes itself as a family event for art lovers which takes place at the Zakharovo estate where Russian poet Alexander Pushkin once stayed.
The pair were due to travel back from the event on Saturday evening in the same car before Mr Dugin reportedly made a decision at the last minute to travel separately from his daughter.

Unverified footage posted on Telegram appears to show Mr Dugin watching in shock as emergency services arrive at the scene of the burning wreck of a vehicle.
The BBC has not been able to verify the footage independently.
Investigators confirmed that Ms Dugina died at the scene near the village of Bolshiye Vyazemy.
They said that an explosive device, which was planted under the car on the driver's side, went off before the vehicle caught fire. Forensic and explosive experts are investigating.

A Ukrainian official has dismissed accusations of Ukrainian involvement in the incident.
"I emphasise that Ukraine, of course, has nothing to do with this, because we are not a criminal state, which is the Russian Federation, and even less a terrorist state," said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Despite not holding an official position in government, Alexander Dugin is believed to be a close ally of the Russian president and has even been branded "Putin's Rasputin".
The philosopher's daughter, Darya Dugina, was herself a prominent journalist who vocally supported the invasion of Ukraine.
Earlier this year she was sanctioned by US and UK authorities, who accused the 30-year-old of contributing to online "disinformation" in relation to Russia's invasion.
In May, she described the war as a "clash of civilisations" in an interview and expressed pride in the fact that both she and her father had been sanctioned by the West.
Alexander Dugin was sanctioned by the US in 2015 for his alleged involvement in the Russian annexation of Crimea.
His writings are credited with having a deep influence on Vladimir Putin's worldview and he is considered to be a chief intellectual architect of the ultra-nationalist ideology adhered to by many in the Kremlin.
For years, Mr Dugin has called on Moscow to assert itself more aggressively on the global stage and has supported Russian military action in Ukraine.
 
Last edited:

Cloud Strife

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2014
Messages
2,964
I also wonder whether there's another problem with destroying the Kerch Bridge: It's - as far as I'm aware - heavily used by civilian traffic as well as military (though if Russian tourists get scared of going to Crimea, perhaps that will change). That means it might be difficult to destroy it without the risk of substantial civilian casualties - which would not only be a problem in itself, but also hand Putin a huge propaganda victory.

Civilian traffic at night will be minimal. There might be a few causalities, but it would be seen as collateral damage in the West.

But I think the whole Kerch Bridge has been hyped up for one reason: to force Russia to commit considerable resources to its defence. It's also had the effect of implanting the idea within people in Crimea that if the Kerch Bridge falls, then Russia's occupation of Crimea also falls. All of this creates a siege mentality and growing desperation among ordinary people to end the war, especially when combined with things going boom in the night.

The daughter of a key Putin ally has been killed in Moscow by a car bomb, with her father potentially being the intended target:

Regardless of who is behind this, it's going to strike fear into the inner circle of the Kremlin. Putin remains in power as long as he offers security to the people, and he won't last long if the inner circle starts feeling directly threatened. My gut feeling is that this was carried out by Chechens or other domestic actors, but again, it will increase the pressure on Putin and the Kremlin to end the war rather than risk the war coming to Moscow.

The latest reports suggest that the car was registered in her name, which means that it might well have been a deliberate attack on her.
 

brad465

Veteran Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
11,470
Location
Taunton or Kent
Regardless of who is behind this, it's going to strike fear into the inner circle of the Kremlin. Putin remains in power as long as he offers security to the people, and he won't last long if the inner circle starts feeling directly threatened. My gut feeling is that this was carried out by Chechens or other domestic actors, but again, it will increase the pressure on Putin and the Kremlin to end the war rather than risk the war coming to Moscow.

The latest reports suggest that the car was registered in her name, which means that it might well have been a deliberate attack on her.
It could also have been initiated by Putin if be believed, rightly or wrongly, that the target was becoming a threat to him. However, that would still have the same effect regarding other members of the inner circle feeling threatened, bringing the war to Moscow, while also reducing his inner circle further, leading to a greater chance of poor decisions being made on his part. Unless further intelligence comes to light, and/or more similar attacks happen in the coming days/weeks, we won't know for sure.
 

Cdd89

Established Member
Joined
8 Jan 2017
Messages
1,740
I feel like I’ve said this multiple times — but while I think the West is doing well at making the war incredibly unproductive for Putin, I’m not sure we are doing as well in terms of offering a face-saving exit strategy.

The two should be done in concert. “Unproductive” alone won’t work as, if he ‘loses’ either way, what’s in it for him to stop (while he has a chance of victory?)
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
9,213
Location
SE London
I feel like I’ve said this multiple times — but while I think the West is doing well at making the war incredibly unproductive for Putin, I’m not sure we are doing as well in terms of offering a face-saving exit strategy.

The two should be done in concert. “Unproductive” alone won’t work as, if he ‘loses’ either way, what’s in it for him to stop (while he has a chance of victory?)

I don't think we can reasonably offer him any strategy that allows him to keep any of Ukraine - and certainly no territory that he's gained recently - unless Ukraine decides that's acceptable: To try to do so would be a betrayal of Ukraine. And it's really up to Ukraine, not us, to decide what deal they are willing to accept to end the war. That means it's probably not possible to offer an exit strategy until Ukraine has retaken most of its land (assuming that does eventually happen) - and at that point it's likely that much of the Russian military will be desperate to end the war. Once that's happened, we'll probably be in a position to work with Ukraine to offer something that motivates Russia to agree a peace treaty.
 

Gloster

Veteran Member
Joined
4 Sep 2020
Messages
12,987
Location
Up the creek
Putin will pull everything down with him rather than surrender. The best that can be achieved is likely to be an agreement that if he goes off into exile with his gymnast and doesn’t meddle in politics, he won’t be prosecuted. Of course, a few Russians might have different plans for his future once he is out of power.
 

Top