Decarbonising the Western (Great Western Electrification - Part 2)

[zwk500]

I have read this and quite a few of the cited references. What is so frustrating is all the analysis and report writing but little gets done. Paralysis by analysis.

That frustration is shared by the people who write the report, I can assure you!

 

[WAO]

Having downloaded and read the report, it reads too much like the 2009 RUS Electrification Report, but for a smaller area. Its failing is to examine routes not the services that use them. IIRC, Swansea - Cardiff wiring fell because only the hourly London trains would use it, the others, whether to Manchester/Taunton/Westbury etc would carry on with Uncle Otto's engines as before. Similarly, other stronger cases, such as Didcot - Oxford and Newbury - Bedwyn being small weren't really looked at, when they would have replaced a lot of diesel mileage and released the very expensive 80x's from inappropriate local services. Yate - Bromsgrove really depends on the entire XC strategy. Other partial wirings such as westward through Box Tunnel to Bathampton, via the 1 long 1:100 would have strong technical cases, avoiding the hard climb under Diesel and with regeneration going down.

It needed more engineering and commercial (TOC?) input to make a case, with quantified benefits to passengers and net operating costs.

WAO

 

[GRALISTAIR]

That frustration is shared by the people who write the report, I can assure you!

Actually that is good to know and comforting in a way. Thankyou

 

[nmsq]

Yes but my point is why not Bristol to Birmingham (Bromsgrove - Westerleigh) and help get rid of some Voyagers rather than 9tpd 2 car 150s tootling about between Swindon and Westbury.

it's more the case that the heavy stone traffic uses the route very frequently.

 

[zwk500]

Yes but my point is why not Bristol to Birmingham (Bromsgrove - Westerleigh) and help get rid of some Voyagers rather than 9tpd 2 car 150s tootling about between Swindon and Westbury.

Because Bristol to Birmingham doesn't let you get rid of any voyagers without Brimingham to Leeds/Doncaster. Got to start somewhere, may as well start where there's bi-modes.

it's more the case that the heavy stone traffic uses the route very frequently.

Would they switch to electric haulage for the run to Acton? It's possible, depends if a pair of 90s could handle it.

 

[tomuk]

Because Bristol to Birmingham doesn't let you get rid of any voyagers without Brimingham to Leeds/Doncaster. Got to start somewhere, may as well start where there's bi-modes.

What about the XC services to Manchester

 

[zwk500]

What about the XC services to Manchester

Diagrams for which run to Southampton and Bournemouth as well, I think.

 

[tomuk]

Diagrams for which run to Southampton and Bournemouth as well, I think.

Yes via Oxford and Reading not via Bristol.

Now if this plan were to go ahead Tranche 0 is finishing of the bits of GWEP which were descoped i.e. Didcot to Oxford and more importantly both routes to Bristol Temple Meads you could then cascade the now unneeded bimodes 80x to Cross Country. There is talk of stock cascades and requirements but I suppose it is out of scope of NR

 

[zwk500]

Yes via Oxford and Reading not via Bristol.

Now if this plan were to go ahead Tranche 0 is finishing of the bits of GWEP which were descoped i.e. Didcot to Oxford and more importantly both routes to Bristol Temple Meads you could then cascade the now unneeded bimodes 80x to Cross Country. There is talk of stock cascades and requirements but I suppose it is out of scope of NR

Ah, but the point of the 80x series is thst they can be converted to pure EMU once the wires are up, rather than needing to build additional stock only a couple of years later.
So there won't be unneeded bimodes available to cascade.

 

[tomuk]

Ah, but the point of the 80x series is thst they can be converted to pure EMU once the wires are up, rather than needing to build additional stock only a couple of years later.
So there won't be unneeded bimodes available to cascade.

Surely it easier to cascade existing Bimode 80x to routes\operators that need them and backfill with new electric only stock rather than build more bimodes and 'un bimode' the 80x?

Arguably due to the current extent of the GW electrification 80x are operated on services inappropriately. The substitution of 80x with cracking issues with 387s hasn't been a disaster from a onboard ambience\comfort perspective.

 

[zwk500]

Surely it easier to cascade existing Bimode 80x to routes\operators that need them and backfill with new electric only stock rather than build more bimodes and 'un bimode' the 80x?

Arguably due to the current extent of the GW electrification 80x are operated on services inappropriately. The substitution of 80x with cracking issues with 387s hasn't been a disaster from a onboard ambience\comfort perspective.

Not once you consider crew training and route clearance, etc. GWR stick with trains they know, you can roll the class through the works as and when retired to swap the gensets for batteries etc. Then build new stock for XC. It might be AT300-derived again, but tweaked/developed further.

 

[JohnRegular]

Yes but my point is why not Bristol to Birmingham (Bromsgrove - Westerleigh) and help get rid of some Voyagers rather than 9tpd 2 car 150s tootling about between Swindon and Westbury.

In addition to what other posters have said, one minor point is that the Melksham route is not infrequently used as a diversion for west country services when the main line via Newbury is shut.

 

[The exile]

Ah, but the point of the 80x series is thst they can be converted to pure EMU once the wires are up, rather than needing to build additional stock only a couple of years later.
So there won't be unneeded bimodes available to cascade.

And even with wires to Oxford and Bristol there must be a limited number of diagrams which don’t leave that network at some point (Weston, Swansea, Cotswolds - not to mention the B&H and beyond)

 

[ac6000cw]

it's more the case that the heavy stone traffic uses the route very frequently.

Because Bristol to Birmingham doesn't let you get rid of any voyagers without Brimingham to Leeds/Doncaster. Got to start somewhere, may as well start where there's bi-modes.

Would they switch to electric haulage for the run to Acton? It's possible, depends if a pair of 90s could handle it.

I think the future for heavier freight is a high-power Co-Co bi-mode loco like the upcoming class 99.

 

[snowball]

They refer to other regions priorities? Does this mean similar reports have been written for other regions?

Yes, it says so on page 1.

Each region has undertaken its own strategy to develop and refine the TDNS national
programme, which is necessarily high level and lacks granularity including on regional
service development and rolling stock strategies.

 

[ABB125]

I think the future for heavier freight is a high-power Co-Co bi-mode loco like the upcoming class 99.

Or even straight electric! Might be able to fit in another MW of power too...

 

[Birmingham]

Yate - Bromsgrove really depends on the entire XC strategy.

Would this also allow regional services like Worcester/Gloucester to Bristol and Worcester to Birmingham to go to pure EMU (as well as whatever benefit it will or won't bring to XC).

 

[ABB125]

Would this also allow regional services like Worcester/Gloucester to Bristol and Worcester to Birmingham to go to pure EMU (as well as whatever benefit it will or won't bring to XC).

According to the report, the Worcester loop would be wired. But nothing else (eg: via Kidderminster, or to Hereford). So basically there would be no change unless bi-mode stock was procured for Birmingham Herefords. You could curtail the (somewhere-)Bristol-Malvern services into Bristol Worcester and convert to EMU

 

[Birmingham]

According to the report, the Worcester loop would be wired. But nothing else (eg: via Kidderminster, or to Hereford). So basically there would be no change unless bi-mode stock was procured for Birmingham Herefords. You could curtail the (somewhere-)Bristol-Malvern services into Bristol Worcester and convert to EMU

Kidderminster and (I think) Hereford come under the Central route, so they wouldn't be mentioned in this report: it would depend whether Central route's plans match up with Western's (in which case these benefits could perhaps be realised).

And yes, if Bristol to Worcester ends up being electrified but no further, may as well curtail those services at Worcester. I suppose that's a bit like what they did to the Paddington-Didcot/Oxford stopping services when they only ended up electrifying to Didcot.

 

[zwk500]

Or even straight electric! Might be able to fit in another MW of power too...

It would still need last-mile capability, or some other technical solution to top-loading freight from OLE-equipped tracks. GBRf were trialling something at Wellingborough, although it wouldn't be the end of all the problems. And given how slowly electrification goes in this Country, it will be a long time until heavy freight flows are all-electric.

 

[Snow1964]

Would this also allow regional services like Worcester/Gloucester to Bristol and Worcester to Birmingham to go to pure EMU (as well as whatever benefit it will or won't bring to XC).

Yes would be able to EMU, and the order of phasing means could have something like Frome-Worcester as EMU

But as stated upthread, it makes more sense with a non-express bi-mode, because not going to be able to run the current service to places like Weymouth and Great Malvern with a pure EMU

What I am not clear about is if you could get away with an EMU with a battery, rather than having any diesel. Don’t really know if a battery would have range to cover the missing bits, probably yes to Great Malvern, but not so sure about Castle Cary to Dorchester, or Warminster to Redbridge. But would need to be able to use third rail too. At least the big hills (Westbury-Warminster, Filton, Bromsgrove, Weymouth-Dorchester etc) would all be electrified.

My gut feeling is the 165 & 166 fleet would replace the 150, 158 and Castle HST fleet (with some castle HSTs replaced by spare 5car class 800/802), with new trains for (getting busier) Wessex-Gloucestershire services.

 

[kevin_roche]

This is interesting but with the current high temperature in my office, it seems to all be a bit too late. I was very disappointed when the GWML electrification did not manage to complete all of what was planned. Let's hope we can afford this and get it completed quickly.

Does anyone have any idea when there will be dates for each tranch or at least for a decision when this could happen?

 

[SynthD]

Does anyone have any idea when there will be dates for each tranch or at least for a decision when this could happen?

Budget announcements? It may be out of the civil servants' hands.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Budget announcements? It may be out of the civil servants' hands.

Agreed. New PM, new Chancellor, new SoS Transport and probably new Rail Minister.

 

[zwk500]

Does anyone have any idea when there will be dates for each tranch or at least for a decision when this could happen?

Bear in mind this report is very much in the 'If we were to electrify the entire region, this is how we'd do it' mode, rather than actually committing to anything substantive.

Agreed. New PM, new Chancellor, new SoS Transport and probably new Rail Minister.

I think Shapps has a good chance of staying where he is tbh - he's not close enough to either candidate to really eye the biggest departments, but as he's among the more capable options in the Tory ranks at the moment you wouldn't want to kick him to a lower rung. Rail minister may well change though.

 

[Snow1964]

Does anyone have any idea when there will be dates for each tranch or at least for a decision when this could happen?

This is going to be one of those politics questions, do they want to look good to electorate in marginals. So need some projects that are shovel ready to impress.

The Conservatives are likely to struggle to hold onto some of the gained northern seats, but more relevant is their potential loss in SW England to Lib Dems. Whole swathes of Devon, Somerset, Bath, bits of Wiltshire etc. Really need to be seen to be doing something in areas of phase 0 and phase 1, especially with the perception that levelling up means taxing the south more, and allowing SW to feel abandoned from projects

 

[The exile]

This is going to be one of those politics questions, do they want to look good to electorate in marginals. So need some projects that are shovel ready to impress.

The Conservatives are likely to struggle to hold onto some of the gained northern seats, but more relevant is their potential loss in SW England to Lib Dems. Whole swathes of Devon, Somerset, Bath, bits of Wiltshire etc. Really need to be seen to be doing something in areas of phase 0 and phase 1, especially with the perception that levelling up means taxing the south more, and allowing SW to feel abandoned from projects

In that respect, Bath’s already a lost cause!

 

[WAO]

Would this also allow regional services like Worcester/Gloucester to Bristol and Worcester to Birmingham to go to pure EMU (as well as whatever benefit it will or won't bring to XC).

Absolutely!

My point is that wiring must be used for most services to be justified, unless one is thinking of short distance stopping services from a city terminal (how most electrification started).

XC wiring depends on what happens to HS2 from B'ham to Derby (planning blight) and north of Sheffield, even to TPE from Leeds to York! I would argue that the MML (York - Bristol, not the London extension) is the key to nationwide electrification as it touches or nearly does, most of the regional population centres.

I think that it may need the courage to split services, if Bi-modes aren't available.

Still, bring on the Hendy tail.

WAO

 

[Mikey C]

Bear in mind this report is very much in the 'If we were to electrify the entire region, this is how we'd do it' mode, rather than actually committing to anything substantive.

It seems sensible to have a plan of electrification priorities, so that when funds and resources are available, you've already decided your priorities. Of course such plans can easily be overturned by events, or indeed political desires...

 

[zwk500]

It seems sensible to have a plan of electrification priorities, so that when funds and resources are available, you've already decided your priorities. Of course such plans can easily be overturned by events, or indeed political desires...

If only NR got to determine where those funds and resources were allocated... Sadly, it's the Dft that decide if a scheme is worth it or not. Hopefully something similar to the scottish funding system comes in soon (AIUI 5 year budgets reviewed every 12 months but open to correction).