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Keir Starmer and the Labour Party

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Kite159

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If Proportional Representation is brought in then the party splitting is inevitable; FPTP is the main reason it has that broad a group of MPs. Likewise the Tory party is likely to split as well in such a situation, with the ERG wing likely to break away, or if they don't a new party might form that attracts Tory moderate MPs.
Proportional Representation might be talked about by Labour as "if we win the next election we will look at bringing it in", but will most likely be dropped as they know if they introduced Proportional Representation they wouldn't get as many MPs. Similar to 1997.

Or it will be watered down to something like the "Alternative Vote" which got voted on after the Tory/Lib-Dem government in 2010
 
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Busaholic

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Starmer is more than half competent but he isn't Corbyn so many on the crank left moan and whine. I get that you may wish the electorate were more sensible and voted for magic grandad but they didn't. They rejected him and massively. Many real people thought Corbyn a coward, a traitor and a crank. He was utterly toxic.

Starmer is a solid, stolid, sensible, mature adult. I would rather we have that than the clown show we have had with Johnson for the last few years!


by holding a lead in the polls?
You're implying I was a Corbyn supporter and am, or was, on the crank left. I was totally anti Corbyn becoming leader, not that I've ever been a member of the Labour party, nor have I voted for them since the 1980s. You might consider me, anti CND though I am for instance, on the crank left, but I suggest from both this and previous posts you are very much on the Labour right, which in my heyday was the Callaghan faction and ultra conservative (socially) Trade Union backed males of middle and old age who just wanted a nice little earner and didn't give two hoots for most of their constituents. Lisa Nandy should be leader, not yet another North London 'socialist', and Knight of the Realm to boot.
 

DarloRich

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You're implying I was a Corbyn supporter and am, or was, on the crank left. I was totally anti Corbyn becoming leader, not that I've ever been a member of the Labour party, nor have I voted for them since the 1980s. You might consider me, anti CND though I am for instance, on the crank left, but I suggest from both this and previous posts you are very much on the Labour right, which in my heyday was the Callaghan faction and ultra conservative (socially) Trade Union backed males of middle and old age who just wanted a nice little earner and didn't give two hoots for most of their constituents. Lisa Nandy should be leader, not yet another North London 'socialist', and Knight of the Realm to boot.
I am on the side of the Labour party that is serious about winning power and, you know, changing things to help people of all ages. That is closer with Starmer as leader.

Nandy I think might well make a good leader in the future but I am not sure her time is now and i don't think that potential should be waisted trying to sort out the Corbyn based mess Labour have become. That's why i didn't vote for her. As for Starmer I have long said his job is to make Labour serious again and that is a task he is cracking on with.
 

Acfb

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I'm not sure who should be the next Labour leader. Possibly Lisa Nandy, Angela Rayner or Bridget Philipson.

Problem with Reeves and Starmer is that they are terrible communicators.
 

Yew

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I am on the side of the Labour party that is serious about winning power and, you know, changing things to help people of all ages. That is closer with Starmer as leader.
How many of Starmers "10 promises" has he already broken? It seems like every day he slips further and further towards being David Cameron with a red rosette.

I don't care about the party in power, I care about the second part you said "changing things to help people of all ages" - an a labour leader who insists in following neoliberal economic policies can't deliver that.

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I'm not sure who should be the next Labour leader. Possibly Lisa Nandy, Angela Rayner or Bridget Philipson.
More and more, I find myself leaning towards Andy Burnham.
 

DelayRepay

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More and more, I find myself leaning towards Andy Burnham.

You are not the first person who's said that. I think he would be a good leader but whether he'd want to is another matter. I am sure they could easily find him a safe seat if he wanted to return to Parliament but I think he's enjoying being the mayor of Greater Manchester.
 

edwin_m

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Proportional Representation might be talked about by Labour as "if we win the next election we will look at bringing it in", but will most likely be dropped as they know if they introduced Proportional Representation they wouldn't get as many MPs. Similar to 1997.

Or it will be watered down to something like the "Alternative Vote" which got voted on after the Tory/Lib-Dem government in 2010
That may happen, but I'd like to think enough people in Labour have noticed that after winning power in 1997 they lost it in 2010 and other parties have done serious damage to the country between then and most likely 2024. With PR Labour could have had at least a share in power for some of that time, with a chance of stopping some of the those things. Certainly the membership seems to be heavily in favour.

The only possible outcomes in 2024 would appear to be:
  • Labour misses an open goal and the Tories get back in with an outright majority. Unlikely they could form a coalition or a minority government because under their current policies no other significant party will support them.
  • Labour wins an outright majority of seats but probably only a small one - boundary changes in the pipeline are reckoned to benefit the Tories by several dozen seats. The danger of losing power and the benefit of PR is probably evident to quite a lot of the party.
  • A hung parliament where Labour governs with the formal or informal support of the LibDems and some other parties. This makes the benefits of PR even more obvious.
 

DarloRich

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How, exactly?
you don't want to win an election (unless you have Corbyn or a Corbyn lite candidate) which means the second part of your statement cant be enacted.

That seems to be a position many on the wider left want to take: ideological purity ( and electoral destruction/perpetual opposition) over compromise, broad appeal and a chance at gaining power.


More and more, I find myself leaning towards Andy Burnham.
I voted for Burnham every time the option was offered in a leadership election. I like the bloke but he doesn't seem to want, yet, to give up being a mayor ( and why would he? let someone else detoxify Labour and then take over when the going is good)
 

DynamicSpirit

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That may happen, but I'd like to think enough people in Labour have noticed that after winning power in 1997 they lost it in 2010 and other parties have done serious damage to the country between then and most likely 2024. With PR Labour could have had at least a share in power for some of that time, with a chance of stopping some of the those things. Certainly the membership seems to be heavily in favour.

The only possible outcomes in 2024 would appear to be:
  • Labour misses an open goal and the Tories get back in with an outright majority. Unlikely they could form a coalition or a minority government because under their current policies no other significant party will support them.
  • Labour wins an outright majority of seats but probably only a small one - boundary changes in the pipeline are reckoned to benefit the Tories by several dozen seats. The danger of losing power and the benefit of PR is probably evident to quite a lot of the party.
  • A hung parliament where Labour governs with the formal or informal support of the LibDems and some other parties. This makes the benefits of PR even more obvious.

The other potential barrier is: Even if you got a Government that was favourable to PR, could you realistically introduce it without a referendum first? Given that we already have the precedent of the 2011 referendum on a much smaller electoral change, it would be hard to argue for legitimacy in making such a huge change without another referendum.
 

DelayRepay

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The other potential barrier is: Even if you got a Government that was favourable to PR, could you realistically introduce it without a referendum first? Given that we already have the precedent of the 2011 referendum on a much smaller electoral change, it would be hard to argue for legitimacy in making such a huge change without another referendum.

I think you could introduce it without a referendum, if the winning party had made it a manifesto commitment. As that's unlikely, you're right, we would probably need a referendum.
 

Vinnym

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PR is not the holy grail of electoral systems that some may think.
Take a look at the recent NI Assembly election.
Alliance polled 116000 first preference votes and gained 17 seats.
TUV polled 65000 first preference votes and got 1 seat.
Obviously second preference votes played a part in this outcome.
If PR were to be introduced in General elections, we would probably have perpetual coalition administrations with policies being watered down to suit minority parties.
 

Domh245

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If PR were to be introduced in General elections, we would probably have perpetual coalition administrations with policies being watered down to suit minority parties.

God forbid policy that policies are only implemented when agreeable to a large portion of the population, rather than railroaded through because one party (who don't have plurality of voters) can play FPTP better than anyone else!
 

DelayRepay

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PR is not the holy grail of electoral systems that some may think.
Take a look at the recent NI Assembly election.
Alliance polled 116000 first preference votes and gained 17 seats.
TUV polled 65000 first preference votes and got 1 seat.
Obviously second preference votes played a part in this outcome.
If PR were to be introduced in General elections, we would probably have perpetual coalition administrations with policies being watered down to suit minority parties.
There is no holy grail. To achieve that you'd have to put every single decision to a referendum.

The search is not for a holy grail, it is for something that is more representative than what we currently have.

I'd like my vote to count for something - currently I don't think it does because my vote very rarely affects the outcome. This is probably one of the few things that UKIP and the Green Party would agree on!
 

edwin_m

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If PR were to be introduced in General elections, we would probably have perpetual coalition administrations with policies being watered down to suit minority parties.
Like how Farage forced the minority subject of Europe onto everyone's agenda by threatening to take away enough Tory votes to deny them power in 2015? Or how the May government bunged money to Northern Ireland to secure DUP votes? Or how every government has to target policies at that small group (Worcester Woman, Mondeo Man and suchlike) who might swing the vote in marginal constituencies?

Most voters are in safe seats where parties can either count on enough votes to win the seat whatever happens (excepting events like the Farage one) or know they have no hope of getting enough votes to win it whatever they do. Either way they don't need to bother about the interests and concerns of those voters.
 

MikeWM

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How many of Starmers "10 promises" has he already broken? It seems like every day he slips further and further towards being David Cameron with a red rosette.

To me this is the key issue. I don't object to people who do what they say they will do, even if I object to the things themselves. But I have severe issues with someone who stands on a platform of doing specific things - in Starmer's case, keeping most of the policies of the 2017/2019 manifestos - and then almost immediately goes back on them.

In retrospect, I also don't think it was wise for Labour to put in place as leader the architect of their second referendum policy. We saw how well that (didn't) go down in 2019 and it makes an easy target for the Tories at the next election - in my opinion they can just claim that Labour want to reverse Brexit, which given Starmer's record has some ring of truth to it, and I think that will be enough for them to hold onto many of the 'red wall' seats.

(Just before leaving the party, I voted for RLBailey, without any enthusiasm but she seemed the least-worst of a rather rubbish bunch of options. I've got some respect for Nandy as she seems to be who she presents herself as, but at the time there were some things she was saying about policy that I really didn't like (can't remember the details now though)).
 

DarloRich

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In this instance, 2017, though I've been a member twice previously.
I have been a member since the early/mid 90's. Left under Corbyn. Couldn't stand the man. Knew he would be a disaster. Told anyone who would listen and plenty who wouldn't. Re-joined recently.
 

MikeWM

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I have been a member since the early/mid 90's. Left under Corbyn. Couldn't stand the man. Knew he would be a disaster. Told anyone who would listen and plenty who wouldn't. Re-joined recently.

I liked him as a person, I mostly liked his policies (at least until Covid came along), but I didn't think he had it in him to be an effective leader, which indeed turned out to be the case.
 

Busaholic

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I am on the side of the Labour party that is serious about winning power and, you know, changing things to help people of all ages. That is closer with Starmer as leader.

Nandy I think might well make a good leader in the future but I am not sure her time is now and i don't think that potential should be waisted trying to sort out the Corbyn based mess Labour have become. That's why i didn't vote for her. As for Starmer I have long said his job is to make Labour serious again and that is a task he is cracking on with.
On your first point, so am I. I think Starmer has the charisma of Gordon Brown, another who was extremely unlikely to secure enough popular support to ever win a General Election, given the current voting system. Labour should be ahead by at least 15% in opinion polls. Labour people going on about the disastrous Corbyn era are just playing into Tory hands, with it all being lapped up by the odious Daily Mail. It's like the ridiculous far left groups in the 70s and 80s who regarded each other as the mortal enemy, rather than the Right who were amassing power for themselves. Mind you, Labour have to act swiftly for a change. The whole operation needs to be over before 2023, just in case the Tories are emboldened to call an early election.
 

DarloRich

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another who was extremely unlikely to secure enough popular support to ever win a General Election, given the current voting system
Labour are 9 points ahead in the polls. That has fallen back 1 point during July. Recent results show that Labour could win an election. I suspect if 15 point ahead in the polls Starmer would be expected to be 25 points ahead!

btw: when Corbyn left labour were on 29 and the conservatives on 51!

Lots of lovely data here: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

The whole operation needs to be over before 2023, just in case the Tories are emboldened to call an early election.
Starmer needs to step up the pace now and start to flesh out some of his policy positions. He has a chance to capture the agenda if he sensible
 

Busaholic

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Starmer needs to step up the pace now and start to flesh out some of his policy positions. He has a chance to capture the agenda if he sensible
I'll leave the subject here for now, with the hope that you're right. He does seem to need a huge metaphorical or actual kick up the arse. Leaders need challenging, not just a bunch of surrounding sycophants. Look where that approach has got the country!
 

nw1

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If PR were to be introduced in General elections, we would probably have perpetual coalition administrations with policies being watered down to suit minority parties.

Sounds good to me! The Tories badly need watering down.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The other potential barrier is: Even if you got a Government that was favourable to PR, could you realistically introduce it without a referendum first? Given that we already have the precedent of the 2011 referendum on a much smaller electoral change, it would be hard to argue for legitimacy in making such a huge change without another referendum.

We don't need referenda for every possibly controversial policy though.

Was there a referendum on the poll tax? Or Section 28? Or the Cameron-Osborne era austerity? Or the Iraq war? Or even (changing tack here to things I personally consider "good" rather than "bad") the ban on foxhunting or equalisation of straight and gay age of consent?

I don't think enough people understand the issues well enough to make a referendum the best option (and I would also make that critique of that other recent referendum too). If we rely on that, things will never change, and we'll be stuck with the Tories in power for the foreseeable future (with short-lived interruptions) I suspect. IMO the main split in UK politics is between the Tories and the various liberal/left parties, so FPTP will always favour the Tories. Not good for a party which has not, in modern times, achieved even 45% of the vote to dominate UK politics in such a way.

Thus Labour need to seize the opportunity should they achieve some kind of power in 2024, and realise that an alternative system will give them at least some power for more of the time.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I'll leave the subject here for now, with the hope that you're right. He does seem to need a huge metaphorical or actual kick up the arse. Leaders need challenging, not just a bunch of surrounding sycophants. Look where that approach has got the country!

To be fair I think Truss has several lines of weakness (Britannia Unchained, "Britons are idlers" for one) and I hope the Labour leadership will be sensible enough to exploit them.
 
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Cdd89

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We don't need referenda for every possibly controversial policy though.
I think you do, if you previously had a referendum on something similar in which people voted against.

For example, I can’t imagine rejoining the EU without a new referendum.
 

nw1

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How many of Starmers "10 promises" has he already broken? It seems like every day he slips further and further towards being David Cameron with a red rosette.
To be fair, if faced with a choice between Cameron and Truss (and no other option) I'd hold my nose and pick Cameron. For all his faults at least he wasn't into this hard-right nationalist rubbish which completely dominates the current Tory party.

But I don't think Starmer is anything like as right-wing as Cameron, in any case.

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I think you do, if you previously had a referendum on something similar in which people voted against.

For example, I can’t imagine rejoining the EU without a new referendum.

But (given not enough people, to my mind, really understand voting systems) is it really a good idea to entrust a change of voting system to a referendum? Most of the Tory voters (so that's 40% of the electorate, perhaps) will say No because they know FPTP is in their own self-interest. And if even 20% of the remainder do not understand the issues well enough, it's an absolute non starter.

To my mind, morally, the inherent unfairness of FPTP (Tories in power 71% of the 1979-2024 period, assuming a 2024 election) trumps any moral argument about needing to have another referendum on any issue which formerly had a referendum.

FPTP is fair in perhaps some very specific cases (equal number of mainstream 'right' and 'left' parties, e.g. Republicans and Democrats in the USA) but in a situation like the UK, in which we have a dominant right-wing party but the left/liberal side much more split, it simply does not work.
 
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Vinnym

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Sounds good to me! The Tories badly need watering down.

Yes, but if Labour are the largest party after the next election and have to rely on small party support it will be THEIR policies and initiatives that will be getting watered down.
 

nw1

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Maybe, but Labour to me are pretty centrist / soft-left anyway, so to a hard-left person, their policies are already "watered down" in any case (that isn't necessarily a bad thing).

And they would likely be in coalition with Lib Dems and Greens, who share many of their values anyway.
 
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