Grand Union approved for Cardiff to London open access by ORR from December 2024

[anthony263]

Grand union have withdrawn their previous application and submitted a new one on the ORR’s website for 5 trains per day between Carmarthen and London Paddington via the Swansea District line starting in December 2024 using new built rolling stock instead of its previous application of using mark4 carriages hauled by a class91.

Link is below to the applications on the ORR website under section 17 applications:

Current track access applications | Office of Rail and Road

All documents relating to track access applications we are currently considering. This may include application forms, draft agreements, any related documents and responses we make public.

www.orr.gov.uk

 

[Bald Rick]

… using new built no mode rolling stock …

‘No Mode’ rolling stock is about right if they want to start in 2024. If they haven’t already ordered it, it won’t be ready by then !

 

[4-SUB 4732]

The ORR should charge some serious wedge to prevent this sort of thing making it without the submitter believing they have a hugely likely chance to have the trains run.

 

[swt_passenger]

Isn’t this exactly the same application this thread‘s been about since it was started? Just moved from NR to ORR as normal?

 

[Clarence Yard]

It is the same one, nearly! GU have been a bit naughty here - they have altered their application after the NR consultation period so some of the consultation responses now don’t make total sense. They have dropped the use of 91+Mk4 and gone for a 2024 start with new 802 stock, still for 20 years.

I can’t see that as a practical start date. Even if the ORR gave it the go ahead later this year, 2025 would be more realistic, given how long it takes to get 80x stock built. 20 years is an awful long time to recover that level of investment - the ORR will be looking very closely at that!

 

[Snow1964]

It is the same one, nearly! GU have been a bit naughty here - they have altered their application after the NR consultation period so some of the consultation responses now don’t make total sense. They have dropped the use of 91+Mk4 and gone for a 2024 start with new 802 stock, still for 20 years.

I can’t see that as a practical start date. Even if the ORR gave it the go ahead later this year, 2025 would be more realistic, given how long it takes to get 80x stock built. 20 years is an awful long time to recover that level of investment - the ORR will be looking very closely at that!

I wonder if it doesn’t actually matter legally if it starts bit later due to later delivery of rolling stock. Just reduces the 20 years to nearer 19 to recover your investment and make money

What you probably cannot do is start service early, before the agreed date with ORR, even if you had rolling stock and staff etc

I suppose altering your application after consultation, could be considered reacting and taking account of the responses. If it was a binary yes/no choice then no point in having a consultation requiring feedback, and let’s be honest GWR don’t really offer a decent service from many parts of South Wales

 

[Western 52]

I certainly agree that the current GWR offer west of Swansea is poor. On weekdays just 1 through London train each way, and cancelled quite often. I support efforts to improve through services to west Wales, especially to Cardiff and beyond.

 

[ainsworth74]

I wonder if it doesn’t actually matter legally if it starts bit later due to later delivery of rolling stock. Just reduces the 20 years to nearer 19 to recover your investment and make money

What you probably cannot do is start service early, before the agreed date with ORR, even if you had rolling stock and staff etc

I think if you start too late you can lose the paths. I'm sure one iteration of the attempted Grand Central Euston - Blackpool service had to rebid (or do some sort of process) because they took too long from being awarded their access rights to actually being in a position to use them that they lost them again.

 

[Horizon22]

I certainly agree that the current GWR offer west of Swansea is poor. On weekdays just 1 through London train each way, and cancelled quite often. I support efforts to improve through services to west Wales, especially to Cardiff and beyond.

One could argue within the brave new world of GBR, it shouldn’t be GWR’s responsibility to do that, but should be on TfW to offer better connectivity through Swansea to Llanelli and Carmarthen/Pembroke Dock. Swansea is already pretty far from the core GWR network - accepting that there’s a historical link to W.Wales.

I imagine the loadings are fairly low past Swansea although that might be a “chicken & egg” scenario.

 

[Dai Corner]

One could argue within the brave new world of GBR, it shouldn’t be GWR’s responsibility to do that, but should be on TfW to offer better connectivity through Swansea to Llanelli and Carmarthen/Pembroke Dock. Swansea is already pretty far from the core GWR network - accepting that there’s a historical link to W.Wales.

I imagine the loadings are fairly low past Swansea although that might be a “chicken & egg” scenario.

TfW and the Welsh Government are involved (in so far as they're allowed to be). The application starts:

Following a series of discussions with the Welsh Government, members of the Senedd, TfW and others, Grand Union has submitted an application ...

 

[Western 52]

One could argue within the brave new world of GBR, it shouldn’t be GWR’s responsibility to do that, but should be on TfW to offer better connectivity through Swansea to Llanelli and Carmarthen/Pembroke Dock. Swansea is already pretty far from the core GWR network - accepting that there’s a historical link to W.Wales.

I imagine the loadings are fairly low past Swansea although that might be a “chicken & egg” scenario.

Loadings would be a lot better with enhanced services. When Gowerton station was rebuild and had most trains calling there it saw a dramatic rise in use. The same should apply more generally, as long as the services are what people need and are affordable and reliable.

 

[Wyrleybart]

Am I the only one wondering where GU's proposed stock is coming from now they have given up on Mk4s ?

 

[43102EMR]

Am I the only one wondering where GU's proposed stock is coming from now they have given up on Mk4s ?

Proposing new build AT300s, similar to Lumo (except these are bi-mode).

 

[Dai Corner]

Proposing new build AT300s, similar to Lumo (except these are bi-mode).

But with different interiors, including compartments for First Class, a premium Standard Class with 2+1 seating and 2+2 for the cheapest seats.

 

[Wyrleybart]

Proposing new build AT300s, similar to Lumo (except these are bi-mode).

And when might they be ordering these - the first brand new rolling stock GU will have acquired ?
Lead time of around two years - presumably a follow on order from the 805 807 or 810 orders.
Best get in smartish if the funds are there.

 

[James90012]

It would be suicidal for an OA operator without access rights to order stock for services it can't know it can run!

Although that doesn't stop the regular TOCs as the tax payer, effectively, takes on the risk.

 

[daikilo]

It would be suicidal for an OA operator without access rights to order stock for services it can't know it can run!

Although that doesn't stop the regular TOCs as the tax payer, effectively, takes on the risk.

This is a very good question for two reasons:
1) what rules will apply to open access post GBR
2) who will decide what a current TOC can do post GBR
As it happens I doubt GWR currently has enough stock to compete, but I also doubt that enough traffic exists for a Swansea avoiding service.

 

[DanNCL]

The Mark 4s had to be ditched as there aren’t any left available. There are 91s still available but they’re not of much use on their own!

Especially after Blackpool with Alliance/Grand Central, I really can’t see this getting approved.

 

[geoffk]

I think that every single thing you have written in this post is wrong.

Actually I think many outside the rail industry would (at least in private) agree with all or most of what Envoy wrote. But that's getting away from the subject of Grand Union.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Jul 2022 ==

This seems a very uncompetitive stance.

Yes, because I support an integrated public transport network. However I agree that a service calling at a parkway station on the Swansea District line, Llanelli and Carmarthen would be less abstractive than one just serving Cardiff.

 

[Esker-pades]

I think if you start too late you can lose the paths. I'm sure one iteration of the attempted Grand Central Euston - Blackpool service had to rebid (or do some sort of process) because they took too long from being awarded their access rights to actually being in a position to use them that they lost them again.

It's a good point, and from a timetable change point of view the date makes perfect sense. Dec '24 should be the final state of the Welsh timetable re-write so for Grand Union to have their paths in from the earliest point of that new structure should maximise the chances they won't be lost.

 

[Clarence Yard]

It would be suicidal for an OA operator without access rights to order stock for services it can't know it can run!

Although that doesn't stop the regular TOCs as the tax payer, effectively, takes on the risk.

If you are an OA operator you won’t get any rolling stock ordered unless you get a TAA decision from the ORR - the market needs to see you have been awarded the rights. Been there, had to do it several times now.

GU are after 802 stock (if you read their Form P) so you are looking at 2-3 years minimum delivery time from the time any TAA decision is made, depending on how full the Hitachi order book is.

It’s anybody’s guess how OA will fare in any future structure but you have to play the access game now by the law as it is now, not delaying applications for any possible future access scenario. That isn’t remotely legal.

 

[yorkie]

To discuss what rolling stock Grand Union may use, please use the following thread:

What stock could Grand Union use for Cardiff to London?

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/grand-union-tries-again-for-cardiff-to-london-open-access.231444/ Would be a good route for battery trains, Trainline makes the distance as 55 miles roughly each way between Carmarthen and Cardiff Central, 110 miles on battery is...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

Hi all, I hope you're ok .

A while I ago, I think I saw the proposed timings of the new Grand Union Carmarthen to London service on here. Does anyone have a link to them?

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Hi all, I hope you're ok .

A while I ago, I think I saw the proposed timings of the new Grand Union Carmarthen to London service on here. Does anyone have a link to them?

Well there was no such thing as “proposed timings”. There was a document Network Rail circulated where they did hundreds of train changes around Paddington chiefly to try to accommodate them, but given the Mark 4 coaches and such are in the bin they have no real chance of running services any time soon.

 

[Energy]

Well there was no such thing as “proposed timings”. There was a document Network Rail circulated where they did hundreds of train changes around Paddington chiefly to try to accommodate them, but given the Mark 4 coaches and such are in the bin they have no real chance of running services any time soon.

Grand Union changed their plans to start of with Hitachi 802s.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

Grand Union changed their plans to start of with Hitachi 802s.

Also in the current Modern Railways Grand Union said something about 'using new nine-car bi-mode trains'. I know there's concerns about platform lengths but if 8-car HST's operated to and from Carmarthen from 2006-2017/2018 I believe then 9 coaches can do it.

 

[Western 52]

Grand Union changed their plans to start of with Hitachi 802s.

Yes, their website says they'll be using bi-mode trains and that they are working with Hitachi.

 

[WizCastro197]

According to www.granduniontrains.co.uk


Stirling to London will use Some loco+ Mark 4s

Camarthen to London will use some sort of 80x variant.

 

[Darandio]

According to www.granduniontrains.co.uk


Stirling to London will use Some loco+ Mark 4s

Camarthen to London will use some sort of 80x variant.

They've never really updated the website since the original plans. Given how many of the Mk4's have ended up in the razor blade aisle in your local supermarket since then, that plan is increasingly unlikely. For the use of an 80x variant on the other route, @Bald Rick already summed it up pretty well earlier in the thread. If they aren't ordered by now they won't be ready for a 2024 launch.

 

[WizCastro197]

They've never really updated the website since the original plans. Given how many of the Mk4's have ended up in the razor blade aisle in your local supermarket since then, that plan is increasingly unlikely. For the use of an 80x variant on the other route, @Bald Rick already summed it up pretty well earlier in the thread. If they aren't ordered by now they won't be ready for a 2024 launch.

I suppose the order of stock will completely depend on when or if such application is approved or not.

I am curious whether it will be some sort of Lumo type service, cheap and limited stops, as they have now been proven to be popular.