Passenger numbers vs revenue

[E27007]

I was quoted an immediately pre-strike figure that revenue had recovered to around 75% of pre-COVID levels for the same period in 2019/20. Ridership was above that but there had been a marked shift in proportion to the cheaper tickets.

With costs as they are, that’s going to give the DfT a bit of a financial headache, unless something has been factored into their 2022/23 budget to cover the shortfall.

The solution to match revenue to trains must surely be fewer trains running, 4tph to 3 tph in forthcoming timetables, the bus companies have taken such measures, a Village I visit had a very useful 30 minute interval service , this is now a 60 minute interval trough the day

 

[The exile]

The solution to match revenue to trains must surely be fewer trains running, 4tph to 3 tph in forthcoming timetables, the bus companies have taken such measures, a Village I visit had a very useful 30 minute interval service , this is now a 60 minute interval trough the day

Which unfortunately just results in a spiral to the bottom (the last one that is just about doable is a regular 15 minute interval down to a 20 minute interval; after that, the attractiveness for unplanned journeys or fixed start/end times drops off quite quickly)

 

[Class 170101]

Which unfortunately just results in a spiral to the bottom (the last one that is just about doable is a regular 15 minute interval down to a 20 minute interval; after that, the attractiveness for unplanned journeys or fixed start/end times drops off quite quickly)

Precisely which why fares need to fall relative to car costs or increase car costs, but the latter isn't politically expedient, even though it may well help the environment if we all drove less.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Precisely which why fares need to fall relative to car costs or increase car costs, but the latter isn't politically expedient, even though it may well help the environment if we all drove less.

You'll need the greens in power to see that happen unfortunately

 

[Bald Rick]

Precisely which why fares need to fall relative to car costs or increase car costs, but the latter isn't politically expedient, even though it may well help the environment if we all drove less.

which is precisely what has happened In the past 8 months. The cost of driving has increased by c40%, the cost of using the train has risen by less than 4%.

 

[Class 170101]

which is precisely what has happened In the past 8 months. The cost of driving has increased by c40%, the cost of using the train has risen by less than 4%.

But since the Fuel tax freeze 10+ years ago?

 

[Horizon22]

which is precisely what has happened In the past 8 months. The cost of driving has increased by c40%, the cost of using the train has risen by less than 4%.

Yes many friends, family and even rail colleagues have remarked how they'll take the train now that fuel costs have gone through the roof.

Onto the main topic, I saw the London transport correspondent quoting some figures from today's Transport Select Committee quoting some figures, although they seem fairly rough - https://twitter.com/BBCTomEdwards/status/1547165609607282694?

Across industry 75% average passengers. Long distance 80% Commuter train companies lower. Fri Sat Sun v high leisure journeys.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yes many friends, family and even rail colleagues have remarked how they'll take the train now that fuel costs have gone through the roof.

Onto the main topic, I saw the London transport correspondent quoting some figures from today's Transport Select Committee quoting some figures, although they seem fairly rough - https://twitter.com/BBCTomEdwards/status/1547165609607282694?

Yes Steve was talking without the figures immediately to hand. 75% is about right though. Well it was on Monday

 

[dk1]

which is precisely what has happened In the past 8 months. The cost of driving has increased by c40%, the cost of using the train has risen by less than 4%.

Quite an interesting comparison. Long May it continue for rails sake but I can’t see it. Always twists in the opposite direction sadly.

 

[Horizon22]

Yes Steve was talking without the figures immediately to hand. 75% is about right though. Well it was on Monday

Yes it plays out in what many have seen too - Sundays have become fairly manic it has to be said! Also I think some have forgotten what a "100% of pre-Covid railway" looks like, especially at peak time. Even 80% can be quite busy, but 100% was just awful for many.

 

[Bald Rick]

Sundays are back to Pre Covid, Saturdays not far behind. The rest of the week is a long way back, but Friday is the busiest day of the 7 days.

 

[ar10642]

which is precisely what has happened In the past 8 months. The cost of driving has increased by c40%, the cost of using the train has risen by less than 4%.

It doesn't matter because even taking that into account, driving is usually massively cheaper, especially if there is more than one person in the car.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes Steve was talking without the figures immediately to hand. 75% is about right though. Well it was on Monday

ONS have reported this data for office occupancy across the country albeit its for Q1 so you would have thought it would have improved

 

[ar10642]

Yes many friends, family and even rail colleagues have remarked how they'll take the train now that fuel costs have gone through the roof.

I suspect they've not actually done the sums. Example: I drove to work yesterday on one of my infrequent trips into the office. Rural Sussex to Cambridge, £45 in total including 2x Dart Charge (paid £1.91 a litre for diesel). Cheapest train equivalent even with faffing about with split tickets is £61. Regular Anytime ticket £68. Not including driving 7 miles to the station and paying £7 to park.

 

[Bald Rick]

It doesn't matter because even taking that into account, driving is usually massively cheaper, especially if there is more than one person in the car.

of course it matters, as it isn’t always black and white.

Every person making any journey has a choice of modes. That choice is always made on a combination of journey time, convenience (including comfort) and price, with each individual having different weightings between the Factors. Often it is a clear cut decision (some people refer to it as ‘no other option’, but, of course, there are other options, just not particularly palatable options).

However in many cases it is a close call, and in these cases a significant swing in one factor, in this case price, will trigger a change in decision.

I know it has in my household, and with many other people I talk to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2022 ==

I suspect they've not actually done the sums. Example: I drove to work yesterday on one of my infrequent trips into the office. Rural Sussex to Cambridge, £45 in total including 2x Dart Charge (paid £1.91 a litre for diesel). Cheapest train equivalent even with faffing about with split tickets is £61. Regular Anytime ticket £68. Not including driving 7 miles to the station and paying £7 to park.

I suspect they may be making journeys that are different to yours.

 

[ar10642]

I suspect they may be making journeys that are different to yours.

I can find loads of other examples. If you're travelling on your own, with a railcard discount the train *might* work out slightly cheaper for non advance tickets.

Anytime fares or can't travel on a railcard? Forget it.

 

[Bald Rick]

I can find loads of other examples.

I’m sure you can.

Meanwhile me and my friends are off to Scotland by train soon, as that’s cheaper than us driving. Last we it was cheaper to drive. I can find loads of other examples.

and that’s my point, there are examples of where it was cheaper to drive and now isn’t.

 

[ar10642]

I’m sure you can.

Meanwhile me and my friends are off to Scotland by train soon, as that’s cheaper than us driving. Last we it was cheaper to drive. I can find loads of other examples.

and that’s my point, there are examples of where it was cheaper to drive and now isn’t.

It's almost always cheaper to drive. If we want to change that fares need to come down drastically, start by scrapping Anytimes which are looking increasingly ridiculous in the era of hybrid working.

 

[JonathanH]

Sundays are back to Pre Covid, Saturdays not far behind. The rest of the week is a long way back, but Friday is the busiest day of the 7 days.

How long before some difficult decisions are taken on getting more revenue from passengers at certain times at the weekend (on top of next year's 10%+ fare increase and changing advance purchase quotas to push up yields)?

 

[Horizon22]

How long before some difficult decisions are taken on getting more revenue from passengers at certain times at the weekend (on top of next year's 10%+ fare increase and changing advance purchase quotas to push up yields)?

For a start it seems at least the operators have stopped with so many cut price advances on weekends; the trains can fill themselves.

 

[Mikey C]

which is precisely what has happened In the past 8 months. The cost of driving has increased by c40%, the cost of using the train has risen by less than 4%.

I put £60 in my car at the weekend. That same amount of fuel would have cost me nearer £40 not so long ago

 

[E27007]

Read a couple of items in the newspapers today.
Starbucks exploring sale of UK coffee chain

Starbucks explores UK business sale, reports say

The world's biggest coffee chain has been hit hard by lockdown measures and changing customer habits.

www.bbc.co.uk

Starbucks, the commuters friend, and the biggest coffee chain in the Uk, are looking for a potential buyer citing "too much competition" and falling profits, their footfall and sales as an indicator of the change in work/lifestyle/commuting patterns post-Covid .
Cycling, report of 25% increase in cycling to work, I used to cycle to work, forced upon me by rail strikes, cycling became my first choice, cheap, almost free, goodbye tube fares, convenient, my journey time was more than halved to barely more than my walk to the station, and no more embarrasment of being late to the office, my journey time was predicable to a two-minute window . Both news items indicative of changes in our society and behaviour

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Read a couple of items in the newspapers today.
Starbucks, the commuters friend, and the biggest coffee chain in the Uk, are looking for a buyer citing "too much competition" and falling profits, their footfall and sales as an indicator of the change in work/lifestyle/commuting patterns post-Covid .
Cycling, report of 25% increase in cycling to work, I used to cycle to work, forced upon me by rail strikes, cycling became my first choice, cheap, almost free, goodbye tube fares, convenient, my journey time was more than halved to barely more than my walk to the station, and was I never embarrased by being late to the office, my journey time was predicable to a two-minute window . Both news items indicative of changes in our society and behaviour

Starbucks selling stores they own directly as they can't exploit the financial engineering that's got them out of paying proper tax on their earnings ever since they set up shop. That said your assessment is on the money and the rail industry needs to be challenged to come up with a plan to deal with it within say two years that is jointly owned with the unions rather than short term knee jerk responses.

 

[Chrisgr31]

Other lines such as the Uckfield line, Hastings Lines are effectively running ghost trains. That is where the revenue loss is.

I agree that even pre-pandemic commuters were mainly travelling Monday to Thursday, and even then it was noticeably quieter on a Monday. On Fridays though it was very quiet, indeed in the office I was working in at the time the floor probably sat around 250 people, on a Friday it was probably less than 10% occupied.

The Uckfield line is my commuting line and the peak hour services Tuesday to Thursday are busy often standing room only, Monday is quieter but still at least 75% seats taken, Friday its less than 50%.

I dont travel off-peak but suspect its quiet and there are a number of reasons

• 2 hourly off peak daytime service
• shocking reliability recently
• Cheaper advance off peak tickets from Tunbridge Wells
• missing 10pm service from London
• Engineering work meaning 11pm service is often a bus

None of these encourage passengers!

 

[E27007]

A post-covid measure in Germany is a 3-month trial of a bargain 9-Euro for a month of universal 24/7 travelpass for the months of June / July / August 2022 for public transport in Germany, the trial ends soon, but their politicians are looking at a successor to the travelpass. A very brave experiment by the Germans, for example even commuters can exchange their expensive season tickets for the 9-Euro travelpass.
when the Conservatives finish and settle their current differences, does anyone think we might have the same?

9-Euro-Ticket

Energy costs are rising. As one response, the German government is planning to launch a special-offer ticket as part of its support package for bus and rail transport. For 9 euros, you can travel throughout Germany on local/regional trains for a whole month in June, July or August. Sales at...

www.bahn.com

 

[JamesT]

A post-covid measure in Germany is a 3-month trial of a bargain 9-Euro for a month of universal 24/7 travelpass for the months of June / July / August 2022 for public transport in Germany, the trial ends soon, but their politicians are looking at a successor to the travelpass. A very brave experiment by the Germans, for example even commuters can exchange their expensive season tickets for the 9-Euro travelpass.
when the Conservatives finish and settle their current differences, does anyone think we might have the same?

Not a chance.
The general shift over the last few decades is that passengers pay an increasing share of the costs of the railway rather than taxpayers. The government is trying to reduce the large amounts of subsidy given to the railways over the last couple of years. Something like the €9 ticket is the exact opposite of that.

 

[ar10642]

I agree that even pre-pandemic commuters were mainly travelling Monday to Thursday, and even then it was noticeably quieter on a Monday. On Fridays though it was very quiet, indeed in the office I was working in at the time the floor probably sat around 250 people, on a Friday it was probably less than 10% occupied.

The Uckfield line is my commuting line and the peak hour services Tuesday to Thursday are busy often standing room only, Monday is quieter but still at least 75% seats taken, Friday its less than 50%.

I dont travel off-peak but suspect its quiet and there are a number of reasons

• 2 hourly off peak daytime service
• shocking reliability recently
• Cheaper advance off peak tickets from Tunbridge Wells
• missing 10pm service from London
• Engineering work meaning 11pm service is often a bus

None of these encourage passengers!

Uckfield is probably my closest station for a train to London, I hadn't realised they'd also cut it to once every 2 hours. That's really quite a bad service on top of the extra time the journey takes. I usually just drive or bus to Haywards Heath where you never have to wait very long for a train, I was thinking about giving Uckfield a go as I've never done it but that's a huge wait if a train is cancelled or you miss one.

 

[mrmartin]

Global Railway Review

Global Railway Review delivers actionable intelligence that inspires and empowers rail innovators to transform their operations, drive change, enhance performance, and shape the next generation of rail.

www.globalrailwayreview.com

Figures published by the Department for Transport (DfT) on 27 July have shown that passenger numbers are now closing in on pre-pandemic levels. Between 6-17 July, passenger numbers hit 90-93 per cent of pre-Covid levels every single day of the week. This mirrors figures from June which showed 90-93 per cent of pre-Covid levels every single day between 10-20 June.

Numbers on London’s tube are also now nudging 80 per cent, with a weekday high of 79 per cent recorded on 21 July (weekend and Bank Holiday highs of 85-118 per cent have been regularly recorded since May).

Impressive stuff.

 

[The exile]

of course it matters, as it isn’t always black and white.

Every person making any journey has a choice of modes. That choice is always made on a combination of journey time, convenience (including comfort) and price, with each individual having different weightings between the Factors. Often it is a clear cut decision (some people refer to it as ‘no other option’, but, of course, there are other options, just not particularly palatable options).

However in many cases it is a close call, and in these cases a significant swing in one factor, in this case price, will trigger a change in decision.

I know it has in my household, and with many other people I talk to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2022 ==



I suspect they may be making journeys that are different to yours.

Indeed. Once you add in the parking costs once you get where you’re going and the risk that you won’t be able to park within half a mile of your house when you get back….

 

[Richardr]

Global Railway Review

Global Railway Review delivers actionable intelligence that inspires and empowers rail innovators to transform their operations, drive change, enhance performance, and shape the next generation of rail.

www.globalrailwayreview.com

Impressive stuff.

The numbers are linked here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

It may be me, but taking the 21 June 2022 for example, they say that passenger numbers were 78% of pre-pandemic levels. That was an RMT strike day. Is that a serious possibility? They have the Underground at 4% which seems to me more likely given that was also on strike.