When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[nw1]

I definitely don’t agree with that. John Major’s government was the driving force behind railway privatisation. And what an absolute mess they made of it.

Yes, he wasn't perfect, and I voted the other way in both 1992 and 1997. However compared with all other post-Heath Tory governments, it had to be admitted that Major's was the most middle of the road of the lot.

 

[43096]

What I'm reading now isn't "get Brexit done" but "make Brexit better" and if that's true, I haven't a clue what that means.

I think it’s called “polishing a turd”.

 

[Typhoon]

Conservative Home are reporting survey results favouring Mourdant marginally ahead of Badenoch in second. If this changes little at most between now and early September then the winner would be would be too close to call if both were on the final ballot, or if only one of them does, the one that does could well get it, while despite all his MP endorsements, Sunak isn't looking like getting it:

Our latest Next Tory Leader Survey. Mordaunt leads Badenoch by under ten votes in over eight hundred. | Conservative Home

Sunak is third. Much can change - but were the former Chancellor in the ring now against either of the top two, I wouldn't fancy his chances.

conservativehome.com

Mordaunt doesn't seem to have made friends in her current department:

Top Tory leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt has been accused by senior Whitehall figures of neglecting her duties as a trade minister for the past six months, with one claiming “we’ve been a minister down for a long time”.

A senior source from the Department for International Trade (DIT) said other ministers had been forced to “work two jobs” due to Mordaunt, while adding that she had refused to go on several official trips to instead focus on her leadership campaign.

Maybe this is what she meant about it being 'a lot less about the leader and a lot more about the ship' (although she is 1st Officer in her current job).

More seriously. Noticeably, no-one in her current department (International Trade) is supporting her as far as I can see. If the claim is true, it would be interesting to know what steps the Secretary of State (Ann-Marie Trevelyan) took to resolve the matter?

Quote from https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-pe...months/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yes it's rather concerning that a no confidence motion (assuming this is a formal one than can lead to a GE in set conditions) can be brushed aside this easily, regardless of who comprises the Government.

This seems to be a rather murky area since Labour's motion doesn't have the standard wording. Since the motion specifically expresses no confidence while Boris Johnson remains Prime Minister rather than no confidence in the Government generally, I'm not sure if there is any precedent to determine whether it should lead to a general election if passed? I see that, according the BBC Report, the Government have said that if Labour amends it to use the standard no-confidence motion wording, then the Government will give them the usual day in Parliament to debate it.

 

[Senex]

I believe it's driven by "convention" so there's nothing in which Labour has a "right" of any sort, just an expectation based on precedent.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jul 2022 ==

The problem is, that if a government refuses a "no confidence" motion from the opposition it looks like it's frightened of it in one way or another.

Nobody expects this motion to pass, but it appears that Number Ten is frightened of holding the debate which leads up to the formal vote and/or the wriggling necessary to get its MPs to vote for the (Boris's) government.

Once you start ignoring the "conventions" of our "constitution", where do you stop — and why bother?

Our unwritten constitution, like the US written one, relies very heavily on the concept of decent chaps behaving decently. Both are shewing themselves not too capable of dealing with a world where the chaps are no longer decent. And as for the concept of the head of state being the guarantor of our liberties and the fount of all honour, well .....

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Interestingly Rehman Chishti is still in the race - last in, I expected first out. I was wrong. He had an excruciating interview on local TV news yesterday, which he mistook for a speech. The fact that Johnson has turned to him in desperation to fill the ministerial roster says a lot about the PMs situation.

BBC Radio 5 Live 5.30 p.m. news bulletin reporting that Rehman Chishti has withdrawn from the contest after being unable to "secure the necessary parliamentary backing".

 

[brad465]

This seems to be a rather murky area since Labour's motion doesn't have the standard wording. Since the motion specifically expresses no confidence while Boris Johnson remains Prime Minister rather than no confidence in the Government generally, I'm not sure if there is any precedent to determine whether it should lead to a general election if passed? I see that, according the BBC Report, the Government have said that if Labour amends it to use the standard no-confidence motion wording, then the Government will give them the usual day in Parliament to debate it.

Yes once a few more articles and wording came out I did wonder this, I thought they were going for a traditional no confidence vote, turns out that's not what's happening right now.

 

[najaB]

1. Getting Brexit done (yes, I know lots of people don't like the particular details of the Brexit or think it was too hard or still wish we hadn't voted for Brexit in the referendum, but the point is - at the time Boris came to power, the UK was paralysed, with Parliament totally unable to agree on how to do Brexit, and for 3 years almost nothing had happened in UK politics besides arguing about Brexit. For better or worse, Boris did end that paralysis, achieve Brexit, and therefore allow the Government to start getting on to other stuff - at least until Covid came along). But Brexit isn't done. Yes we signed the Withdrawal agreement and formally exited the transition period, but the agreement only runs through to 2026 and we still haven't implemented any part of our side of the border checks, and his own government was seeking to break the agreement in any case.
2. Vaccine rollout - far quicker than most comparable countries, which saved a lot of lives It started faster that most European countries, but they caught up and exceeded our vaccination rate in very short order.
3. Lockdown - wasn't perfect, but we did in the end have a lockdown that was both reasonably successful in keeping the virus contained until vaccines, but was also less restrictive and avoided most of the more bureaucratic absurdities of many other European countries. Can you really claim lockdown as a success, given the the third (and possibly second) were longer and more severe than they needed to be had his government acted sooner?
4. Ukraine - seems to be widely recognised that early UK military support was a significant factor in Ukraine being able to hold back the Russian invasion in the early days, and it seems we also played some role in persuading more reluctant countries to support Ukraine, and in isolating Russia diplomatically
5. HS2 - is being built, despite significant opposition to it at the time Boris came to power and much campaigning in Parliament for it to be cancelled "Is continuing to do a thing that was already happening" really a success?
6. Furlough - allowed lockdown to be implemented, while making sure most people still had an income (although we are now paying an economic price for it)
7. Railways kept being supported during the lockdown, and thanks to the Restoring your Railway scheme, we now have business cases being prepared for a number of possible re-openings. See point 5
8. Environment - COP26 happened. Somewhat mixed in outcome, but very notable that the UK was heavily pushing for steeper CO2 reductions, and generally taking a more environmentalist approach than was the case under previous governments.
9. Hong Kong - there's perhaps not a lot we can do to ease the terrible situation there, but we have made it possible for not far off 100K people so far from Hong Kong to escape to the UK.

Of the points you list, only 9 is something that I would class as an out and out success. The rest are a mixed bag, at best. And wrt point #2, you have to balance that with the disastrous illegal policy of releasing people directly into care homes which is responsible for tens of thousands of extra deaths.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

BBC Radio 5 Live 5.30 p.m. news bulletin reporting that Rehman Chishti has withdrawn from the contest after being unable to "secure the necessary parliamentary backing".

They are now further advising that Sajid Javid has also withdrawn his candidature, possibly for the same reason.

Presumably who's officially still in the contest will be confirmed shortly.

 

[Typhoon]

BBC Radio 5 Live 5.30 p.m. news bulletin reporting that Rehman Chishti has withdrawn from the contest after being unable to "secure the necessary parliamentary backing".

By which they mean a single backer. I wonder whether there will be an interview with him on South East Today this evening following yesterday's car crash. He has saved himself the embarrassment of getting one vote or fewer.

He's had his five minutes of fame.

 

[Acfb]

BREAKING: Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench MPS announces eight candidates have been nominated. Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Tom Tugendhat and Nadhim Zahawi.

 

[duncanp]

According to the BBC, there are eight candidates in the first round of voting

Now we hear from Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs.

He says eight candidates have been nominated: Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Tom Tugendhat and Nadhim Zahawi.

I think it will become clear after the first round or two of voting which candidates are going to progress to the vote amongst Conservative party members.

My guess would be Rishi Sunak and either Liz Truss or Penny Mordaunt.

 

[baz962]

Thank the lord Shapps didn't get there.

 

[Mag_seven]

For some reason Liz Truss reminds me of Teresa May.

 

[Busaholic]

For some reason Liz Truss reminds me of Teresa May.

Teresa might sue!

 

[Gloster]

Teresa might sue!

Now that is getting kinky.

 

[ainsworth74]

Well, Number Ten says that the wording of Labour's motion is "playing politics" , I think that's a bit rich since they're both playing the same game (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nak-labour-prime-minister-latest-updates-live):

I've always found it a slightly odd criticism in general. They do know that they're all politicians yes? That politics is quite literally their job? I would rather hope therefore that that is what they were doing...

 

[Gloster]

If the wording was approved by the Commons clerks, that should be enough.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I've always found it a slightly odd criticism in general. They do know that they're all politicians yes? That politics is quite literally their job? I would rather hope therefore that that is what they were doing...

Someone earlier in the thread says the Labour Party had worded their request in a manner that was outwith the normally-worded request.

What is the truth of what happened?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jul 2022 ==

If the wording was approved by the Commons clerks, that should be enough.

You say "if"...do you know this to be a fact?

 

[najaB]

You say "if"...do you know this to be a fact?

The fact that it got far enough to be denied would indicate that it was.

 

[TwoYellas]

Does anyone know how much a person's wealth increases, on average, by becoming PM? And other perks?

 

[John Hunt]

Does anyone know how much a person's wealth increases, on average, by becoming PM? And other perks?

Interesting document here

https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/standards-and-financial-interests/parliamentary-commissioner-for-standards/registers-of-interests/register-of-members-financial-interests/

which is firmly in the public domain. (interesting how many big footie matches and Wimbledon rave-ups MPs go to. One thing that did puzzle me is how much YouGov pay MPs for surveys.)

 

[TwoYellas]

Interesting document here

https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/standards-and-financial-interests/parliamentary-commissioner-for-standards/registers-of-interests/register-of-members-financial-interests/

which is firmly in the public domain. (interesting how many big footie matches and Wimbledon rave-ups MPs go to. One thing that did puzzle me is how much YouGov pay MPs for surveys.)

Cheers. I'll have a read.

 

[najaB]

Does anyone know how much a person's wealth increases, on average, by becoming PM? And other perks?

That rather depends on how much wealth they have when they get the job. For someone like Rishi Sunak it would likely represent a pay cut.

 

[TwoYellas]

That rather depends on how much wealth they have when they get the job. For someone like Rishi Sunak it would likely represent a pay cut.

Future earnings?

Not that I'm cynical or anything like that.

 

[najaB]

Future earnings?

Not that I'm cynical or anything like that.

Tony Blair has made an absolute mint on the speaking circuit from all reports. Apparently he can get into six figures for a single speech.

 

[TwoYellas]

Tony Blair has made an absolute mint on the speaking circuit from all reports. Apparently he can get into six figures for a single speech.

Should of faced a war crimes trial before any of that.

 

[Meole]

Should of faced a war crimes trial before any of that.

Under the Rendulic concept you suggest ? very difficult to sustain.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Thank the lord Shapps didn't get there.

He was being backed by George Useless

 

[Typhoon]

Future earnings?

Not that I'm cynical or anything like that.

There will be the book deal for a start. Blair, apparently, got £4.6 mil; Thatcher, earlier, got £3.5 mil. As an established author and someone with a tale to tell I would expect him to get something similar. And there must be room for a couple of volumes. It will also enhance his agent's hand when it comes to negotiating a fee for other books - there is one on Shakespeare in the pipeline; although why someone interested in the Bard would go to an outgoing PM, I don't know. I would have more confidence in David Mitchell.

Some six years have passed since Boris Johnson first agreed to write Shakespeare: The Riddle of Genius, receiving an advance of at least £88,000 to start work on a book that his publisher hoped would bring his “characteristic curiosity, verve, and wit” to retelling the life of Britain’s greatest author.

From https://www.ft.com/content/3207327d-e941-4a18-a8c7-33966efe8665
Cummings has suggested that Johnson has been working on it in preference to other matters during the early covid months. Maybe he'll finish it over the summer, keep him out of mischief.

He also is a very productive writer of Forewards, more time for that now and I would doubt they would come cheap.