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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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nw1

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Whoever promises the biggest and fastest tax cuts will win, this rules out Sunak who was in the Treasury pocket.

I don't think tax cuts are the solution. Puts the country into an even bigger financial hole. Will only lead to savage public spending cuts immediately after the next election. No thanks.

There are surely other ways to alleviate the cost of living crisis such as helping those who need it most - or putting pressure on energy companies not to raise prices too much - rather than blanket tax cuts across the board.

Also of the names so far, Sunak appears to be the only vaguely middle-of-the-road candidate which must put him at an advantage.

Not that I want any of them long term to be honest, mind. Just as a stopgap until the next election, when I'd welcome a change of party altogether.
 
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Bald Rick

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Personally, I think
  • Ben Wallace is right not to stand
  • Rishi Sunak isn't up to the job, but I'll probably be proved wrong and that's OK
  • I really don't want Liz Truss to get the job
  • The rest of the candidates are "noise", or standing in order to get recognised and therefore a Cabinet post in the next administration
  • But Penny Mordaunt may get through as being "least objectionable to most people"

sums it up nicely.

Sunak now 3/2, Morduant and Truss at 6/1, the rest are nowhere.

In racing terms Sunak is on the home straight, 12 lengths clear with with two to jump.

I kind of want Truss to get the job, but only so I can say that the PM once squeezed me on the arm fondly ;)
 

nw1

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Why? In pure PR, unless voters have a way of ranking those on the party list, we are likely to end up with those who are quite happy to sit chanting the number of police officers/ nurses/ doctors/ teachers they are going to appoint until the cows come home. I want an MP who is willing to stand up for the constituency area I live in and these are sometimes the rebels.
I think my point is that under FPTP you have 'safe constituencies' in which the candidates really don't need to bother. Have a form of PR with bigger superconsituencies, each with 10 MPs divided proportionally according to the vote ('South Hampshire' for example) and each party standing 10 candidates (which is how I imagine it being implemented) then the best of each party end up getting elected, based on a ranking system. So if South Hampshire gets 50% Tory, 30% Labour, 20% Lib Dem (say), then it only gets 5 Tory MPs (as opposed to now when it has all but two in the area), and hopefully these are the 5 least likely to be useless sycophants. It would also get 3 Labour MPs (up from two) and 2 Lib Dem (up from zero).

Under such a system, attaining a majority would likely be considerably more difficult (the aforementioned South Hampshire, with the proportion of Tory MPs reducing from around 80% to 50%, illustrates this).

Greece does something vaguely like this, with county-sized constituencies and ranking lists, though (from my understanding) has a system where the winning party is allowed to form a majority government if they get a certain overall percentage of popular support (I think 37.5%).
No, it is Mark Spencer. You won't have noticed him, he has made zero impact.
True. I recognise the name though from somewhere.
Rees-Mogg is in charge of sacking civil servants and identifying why we are better off under Brexit.
Yes, I did notice the rather creepy-sounding Minister for Brexit Opportunities and he was it. Maybe I just thought he was Leader as well, one of those two-job cabinet members.
 
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dosxuk

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In racing terms Sunak is on the home straight, 12 lengths clear with with two to jump.

Except, because the way the elections work, he's not. He's got to get enough of a base of support in place that the party put him to the membership - as Boris found out in his first attempt at the leadership, that's not an easy task in itself, even if you are the Bookies favourite. In racing terms, they're still all jostling to be in front when the tape goes up.

(As an aside, why do people keep quoting bookmakers odds like they're some actual formal prediction - they're formed of two things - the same rumours and gossip we all hear; and who people are currently betting on. Shortening odds is as much a sign that something is rumoured to happen as it is the bookies trying to reduce their exposure if it does happen).
 

Gloster

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In racing terms Sunak is on the home straight, 12 lengths clear with with two to jump.

But he might be Devon Loch.

More seriously, there is the problem that the man who got us into this financial mess, or at least failed to prevent others doing that, is now trumpeted as the man to get us out of it. There have also been vague, so definitely unconfirmed, rumours that some matters related to his Green Card/Tax Status were hushed up. However, it is not impossible that, if true, the dirty details are known to other candidates.

Most worrying to me is that a candidate or candidates will make a play for the hard, anti-European Brexiteers’ votes. If they won they might go through with such policies in order to keep their supporters, no matter what damage it does to the country.
 

WatcherZero

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Really disappointed Wallace has decided not to run, seemed the only cool level headed thinker and realist among the candidates.

Lizz Truss - I know her personally, total panderer to populism and has no beliefs of her own. She would be terrible at the job just as she has been in her other posts.
Sunak - Despite his populist image his real instinct is traditional Conservative Austerity.
Suella Braverman - Never heard of her, from what ive read shes happy to interpret the law in whatever way to suit the PM and like others is running on a cut taxes platform. The Independent describes her as such: "If you thought Boris Johnson was an awful prime minister, wait until Suella Braverman gets a crack at the top job."
Tom Tugendhat - Never heard of him, like others running on cut taxes platform
Kemi Badenoch - Another never heard of, running on cutting taxes and spending and despite being Nigerian apparently known for being anti-woke and pushing race/class/sex war rhetoric in same way as US Republicans- so naturally Boris made her equalities minister.
Sajid Javid - Bit of a wet blanket but probably the least detestable of the bunch
Nadhim Zahawi - Seems to be a standard Conservative without some of the extreme rhetoric
Penny Mordaunt - A rabid brexiteer but pro-trans rights which is unusual in Conservative party, supposedly large feud over the issue with Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch who are anti LGBT.


I will say this is a surprisingly integrated lineup demonstrating UK racial integration!
Sunak - Indian descent, both parents born in Africa
Javid - Pakistani descent, both parents from the Punjabi
Suella - Indian descent, parents born in Kenya and Mauritius
Kemi Badenoch - Nigerian descent, raised in Africa
Nadhim Zahawi - Iraqi Kurd asylum seeker
 
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asw22

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With house prices surging ahead by more than 20% in 2 years.
Rent prices up by nearly 20% in 2 years.

I lost my permanent job last August and despite nearly 2000 job applications, I found that the jobs market in Leeds and Bradford is almost non-existent.

I found out this week that I lose my temporary job in the autumn, due to direct government meddling, when the worst of the fuel prices and I am really really scared about what will happen then. Last winter I was down to wearing 5 layers of clothing and one tin of spaghetti per day and I am really worried that this might seem like a distant luxury.

I have tried learning new skills such as Python programming language, yet the apparent demand for this is not there in my experience.

The main issue is that we are continually told that if you work hard then you will survive.
Whereas after 12 years of this government and its austerity, the reality is that wealth has been re-distributed to the rich from the poor, see for example the recent article about the landlord who owns 30 properties how they are going to manage in retirement.

A lack of long-term planning also means that as generation rent move towards retirement in the next 20 years or so, then they won't have a property to sell to pay for social care, but then that's somebody else's problem.
 

bspahh

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(As an aside, why do people keep quoting bookmakers odds like they're some actual formal prediction - they're formed of two things - the same rumours and gossip we all hear; and who people are currently betting on. Shortening odds is as much a sign that something is rumoured to happen as it is the bookies trying to reduce their exposure if it does happen).
Betting odds are an aggregate view of the market. The bookmakers make their money on the spread.

You can bias the odds if you feel like placing some big bets. If you know better than the market, then you can make some money instead.
 

Mcr Warrior

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(As an aside, why do people keep quoting bookmakers odds like they're some actual formal prediction - they're formed of two things - the same rumours and gossip we all hear; and who people are currently betting on. Shortening odds is as much a sign that something is rumoured to happen as it is the bookies trying to reduce their exposure if it does happen).
Might just be a reflection of that relatively more money may have already been bet on Rishi Sunak than anyone else, rather than his likelihood of actually winning. Doubt that there will be a particularly big betting market for this 'event' (unlike, say, the Aintree Grand National or the Cheltenham Gold Cup) but the bookmakers always endeavour to adjust their book, usually by shortening or lengthening odds (the latter to try to get punters to back no hopers), to ensure that they still win whomever it is that replaces Boris Johnson.
 

philosopher

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Grant Shapps is the latest candidate:


Grant Shapps announces Tory leadership bid​

The transport secretary Grant Shapps has launched a Conservative Party leadership bid, the Press Association has reported.

He has said he will end “tactical government by an often distracted centre”.
 

alex397

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What a vile person that Andrea Jenkyns seems to be. She shouldn’t be let anywhere near education after behaving like that.

In most jobs, if you behaved like that you would be sacked. But people working under Johnson (why is he still in power?) are on a different planet, and can do whatever they like.
 

jfollows

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Andrea Jenkyns is vile, I agree. (Here's what I think of you, she's saying.)
Even though it's very early days, I sense it's now come down to who will stand against Rishi Sunak in the ballot of the membership. So does it need to be a "real red meat eating" Tory in order to capture their votes? Someone who will reduce taxes and that sort of stuff - Grant Shapps seems to have jumped on this bandwagon?
If you disregard those people who are just standing to get themselves better known - Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman perhaps, then other "moderate" candidates won't stand a chance - Tugendhat, Javid I hazard. So can Liz Truss, Nadhim Zahawi or Penny Mordaunt make a play for the other spot?
With the caveat that I know that by tomorrow everything I think and say will be overturned by events and turn out to be complete rubbish!
 

yorksrob

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Whoever gets in, I can't see any of them giving a damn about the balance of payments deficit.
 

43096

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I see #10 is rubbishing Sunak. Boris is bound to play games with this contest - presumably to push the least likely candidate to win a General Election so that he is rushed back in under a "Come Back Boris, All is Forgiven" flag. But who could that be? Nadine Dorries comes to mind but hasn't thrown her hat in yet. Suella Braverman?
I would think Sunak is quite happy to not be supported by Johnson. Whoever he backs is - if they have any sense - not going to want that support.

I had forgotten that Starmer was involved in the McLibel case: he has now considerably risen in my opinion.
Starmer is still slimy, smarmy and smug. Wouldn’t trust him.
 

Purple Orange

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1997 - Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)

2001 - Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)

2005 - Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)
People mainly voted Labour and got Labour. If they didn’t want Blair, they would have voted for something else.
 

jfollows

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Nadhim Zahawi's plans may get derailed by financial concerns (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ax-affairs-before-he-was-appointed-chancellor):
The ObserverNadhim Zahawi

Revealed: officials raised ‘flag’ over Nadhim Zahawi’s tax affairs before he was appointed chancellor

HMRC alert raised about offshore family trust which held shares worth £20m in polling firm he co-founded

Nadhim Zahawi was expected to officially launch his campaign to become Tory leader on Sunday. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Michael Savage and Jon Ungoed-Thomas

Sat 9 Jul 2022 19.20 BST

A “flag” was raised by officials over the financial affairs of the new chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi, before he was promoted, the Observer can reveal.

Civil servants in the Cabinet Office’s propriety and ethics team are said to have alerted Boris Johnson to a HM Revenue and Customs “flag” over Zahawi before his appointment. The PM appointed him despite the possible concerns over his tax affairs.

“It’s extraordinary that flags were raised ahead of Nadhim’s appointment by the Downing Street proprietary team,” one source said this weekend. “These sorts of concerns would stop someone receiving an MBE or OBE. The idea he could be chancellor or even prime minister is unbelievable”.

The revelation comes after a report last week in the Independent that Zahawi was investigated by the National Crime Agency (NCA). The investigation did not lead to any action and there is no suggestion of wrongdoing.

Zahawi, 55, who is set to launch his leadership bid on Sunday, is under mounting pressure over his financial affairs. He is one of the richest members of the cabinet and has a personal fortune of more than £100m. He now faces calls to explain the financial arrangements of his family trust, an offshore firm, Balshore Investments in Gibraltar, which held shares worth more than £20m in YouGov, one of the country’s leading polling firms, which he co-founded.

The company said in a statement to the Observer this weekend: “When Nadhim Zahawi was a director of YouGov plc, his beneficial interests in the company included shares held by Balshore Investments Ltd, a family trust of Nadhim Zahawi.” A source close to Zahawi said he “does not have, and never has had, an interest in Balshore Investments and he is not a beneficiary.”

The trust held the shares for at least seven years after Zahawi became an MP in May 2010, earning dividends of hundreds of thousands of pounds. He did not disclose the family trust on the parliamentary register of interests when he became an MP, but has said he complied with all relevant rules on financial interests.

Zahawi was chief executive and a director of YouGov until 2010, and Balshore Investments disposed of its YouGov shareholdings about eight years later. It is legally permitted to hold assets offshore, but Zahawi is now facing calls for greater transparency. Richard Murphy, professor of accounting practice at Sheffield University, said offshore trust structures were typically set up for tax advantages and Zahawi should explain its purpose. He said: “It’s beholden on any politician to be transparent about financial affairs. It should be disclosed who are the beneficiaries of this trust, whether any money has been distributed and what tax has been paid.”

While an MP, Zahawi took a second job with oil and gas company Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which has an oilfield in Kurdistan. He was paid up to £30,000 a month and additional bonus payments, stepping down when he became a minister in 2018.

Zahawi’s rise to fortune and political success is an inspiring narrative for his leadership campaign. He was born in Baghdad to Kurdish parents and arrived in the UK at nine, unable to speak English. He said in a speech last year that the UK and its education system “took in a young Kurdish boy without a word of English and made him a cabinet minister”. He grew up near Crowborough in Sussex, and studied chemical engineering at University College London.

He struck up a friendship with the novelist Lord Archer while campaigning for Iraqi exiles who wanted to see the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.Archer described the young Zahawi as a “born organiser”, telling the BBC last year: “If you said ‘I need six taxis, three aeroplanes and a double decker bus, all in 30 minutes’ he went and did it”. Archer invested in a Midlands-based clothing company where Zahawi worked as a sales executive, which made clothes under licence for brands such as the children’s show Teletubbies. The venture reportedly collapsed with the loss of 100 jobs.

In 1994, Zahawi became a Tory councillor for Wandsworth in south London. He was enlisted to help in Archer’s bid to become mayor of London in the elections in May 2000. Archer was forced to pull out of the race after admitting asking a friend to provide a false alibi before a libel trial. In working on the bid, Zahawi and another team member, Stephan Shakespeare, found conventional polling was slow and expensive. They founded YouGov in 2000, which pioneered internet-based research and has become one of the UK’s leading polling firms. It floated on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange in 2005.

Zahawi and his wife, Lana Saib, 56, have built up an extensive property portfolio, with purchases including a London townhouse, high street properties and an industrial estate.

When the Cabinet Office was asked about the “flag” raised over Zahawi, a spokesperson said: “Under the ministerial code, ministers must ensure that no conflict arises, or could reasonably be perceived to arise, between their ministerial position and their private interests, financial or otherwise.

“The chancellor has followed the process set out in the ministerial code and complied with those requirements to the satisfaction of the previous independent advisers.”

A spokesperson for Zahawi said: “All Mr Zahawi’s financial interests have been properly and transparently declared.” A source close to Zahawi said he and his wife had never claimed non-domicile status.
 

yorksrob

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Perhaps the fundamental problem with the Tory party is they're all too rich.

Let's consider previous incumbents:

Mr Heath - grammar school boy from Kent
Mrs Thatcher - grocers daughter from Grantham.
Mr Major - brought up in Coldharbour lane in Brixton.

Are there any of the current crop with a normal upbringing ?
 

Typhoon

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From the article:
Civil servants in the Cabinet Office’s propriety and ethics team are said to have alerted Boris Johnson to a HM Revenue and Customs “flag” over Zahawi before his appointment. The PM appointed him despite the possible concerns over his tax affairs.
'A Big Dog doesn't change his spots',
 

Meole

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Whoever gets in, I can't see any of them giving a damn about the balance of payments deficit.
The winner will be elected on what is in effect a personal manifesto and that is sure to involve tax cuts for higher earners and business, ordinary workers are now paying higher tax, whether this corrects the economy as they will claim will not be evident until after the general election which the new PM bounce should produce another tory success albeit with a slimmer margin. The calculation being that that the public sector pressure can be ignored as merely a vociferous minority.
 

yorksrob

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The winner will be elected on what is in effect a personal manifesto and that is sure to involve tax cuts for higher earners and business, ordinary workers are now paying higher tax, whether this corrects the economy as they will claim will not be evident until after the general election which the new PM bounce should produce another tory success albeit with a slimmer margin. The calculation being that that the public sector pressure can be ignored as merely a vociferous minority.

We're all screwed if we don't get the balance of payments sorted out.
 

Busaholic

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Just some musings, as unconnected as you like, on the leadership candidates. Information/thoughts/insights etc provided by reading some internet sources but, in the main, by radio and TV appearances by some of the characters, their supporters and detractors, and newspaper (Times, the i)/magazine (Spectator) articles and pieces.

The One Nation Tory vote will mainly be split between Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugenhadt, with each trying to get the upper hand: the latter appears to be faring better than the former.

There is a considerable body of opinion from different parts of the party to stop Truss at all costs, because more than one seaoned political correspondent thinks if Truss makes it to the run-off, the general membership will choose her.

Equally, there are many, many who see denying Sunak as the main objective, led by those of the Rees-Mogg perspective who decry him as a socialist.

Another candidate who may start receiving some rather unfavourable attention on his back story is Zahawi, but he may already have done himself no favours by his behaviour yesterday morning!

Sunak supporters are trying to persuade Javid either not to stand, or to transfer their votes at the earliest possible opportunity.

Morduant ia a wild card who many expect to do well, and seems to have toned down her Brexiteer views.

Patel, whose name has been hardly mentioned before today, is said to be considering standing to represent the UKIP lite, especially now Steve Baker has come to his senses.

Shapps is the Matt Hancock of the race - will he find his way out of the stalls unaided? Ignominy beckons (please!)
 

jfollows

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Perhaps the fundamental problem with the Tory party is they're all too rich.

Let's consider previous incumbents:

Mr Heath - grammar school boy from Kent
Mrs Thatcher - grocers daughter from Grantham.
Mr Major - brought up in Coldharbour lane in Brixton.

Are there any of the current crop with a normal upbringing ?
I'm not directly answering your question, but I went to university in 1980 after Theresa May and before Boris Johnson, and I think I was either the last year of the direct grant system or the first year after it, in which the 11+ examination happened and those who passed were selected for grammar school rather than secondary modern.
Be that ias it may, there was a good contingent of grammar school people at university with me, to the extent that we rather laughed at the public school people and thought they were on the way out. Ours was the way of the future. How wrong we were.
I read a story about Boris in that he didn't understand that his constituency at the time of wanting to be Oxford Union President was of people from grammar schools, and he initially pitched his campaign wrongly and didn't get elected. He learned to dissimulate and be more "plebian" (as he might have put it) and won at the second attempt, although he didn't do anything significant or important once he'd won.
But I get the feeling that since my time there's been a bigger influence of money and public school on senior politicians and that my period was a brief one in which they weren't so important. I accept a lot of unanswered problems and failings with the "old" system, but I'm not sure it wasn't better nonetheless than today's system in which it seems that parental spend is of greater significance than most other things in advancing the cause of future politicians than others.
On the other hand, it's only natural to think that what I had was best, and that's not necessarily the case I fully accept.
 

yorksrob

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I'm not directly answering your question, but I went to university in 1980 after Theresa May and before Boris Johnson, and I think I was either the last year of the direct grant system or the first year after it, in which the 11+ examination happened and those who passed were selected for grammar school rather than secondary modern.
Be that ias it may, there was a good contingent of grammar school people at university with me, to the extent that we rather laughed at the public school people and thought they were on the way out. Ours was the way of the future. How wrong we were.
I read a story about Boris in that he didn't understand that his constituency at the time of wanting to be Oxford Union President was of people from grammar schools, and he initially pitched his campaign wrongly and didn't get elected. He learned to dissimulate and be more "plebian" (as he might have put it) and won at the second attempt, although he didn't do anything significant or important once he'd won.
But I get the feeling that since my time there's been a bigger influence of money and public school on senior politicians and that my period was a brief one in which they weren't so important. I accept a lot of unanswered problems and failings with the "old" system, but I'm not sure it wasn't better nonetheless than today's system in which it seems that parental spend is of greater significance than most other things in advancing the cause of future politicians than others.
On the other hand, it's only natural to think that what I had was best, and that's not necessarily the case I fully accept.

Indeed. I went to the local grammar school in the nineties, then to a sixties university.

I enjoyed my education and I feel privileged because I don't think students today have the same breaks.

Probably the luckiest generation to be honest.
 

Bald Rick

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As an aside, why do people keep quoting bookmakers odds like they're some actual formal prediction - they're formed of two things - the same rumours and gossip we all hear; and who people are currently betting on. Shortening odds is as much a sign that something is rumoured to happen as it is the bookies trying to reduce their exposure if it does happen).

Well that’s my fault, as I’m the only one quoting them.

However, I’m quoting the odds from betfair, which (without getting too technical) is different from most other bookies in that you are betting against other people rather than the bookmaker, and bet for or against (‘lay’)* an outcome. Therefore the odds quoted are effectively a real time live market price, and reflects the current view of those watching, and involved in, the market. This will include people ’in the know’ - as ever knowledge is power.

The markets can move very quickly, and can also be very wrong, as those of us who got 3/1 on Ukraine winning Eurovision can testify.


Isn't that another way of describing a pinch?

definitely not! It was a squeeze. Any more gentle and it would have been classed a fondle and I may or may not have had to have engage lawyers.

Lizz Truss - I know her personally, total panderer to populism and has no beliefs of her own.

Absolutely, or put another way amends her beliefs to best suit her own position, as per a move from staunch Repulicanism to now having an annual lunch with HM @ Sandringham (as the MP for the area), and in other ways I shall reveal in my book (perhaps!)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Indeed. I went to the local grammar school in the nineties, then to a sixties university.

You are Dr Who, and I claim my £10.
 

yorksrob

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Well that’s my fault, as I’m the only one quoting them.

However, I’m quoting the odds from betfair, which (without getting too technical) is different from most other bookies in that you are betting against other people rather than the bookmaker, and bet for or against (‘lay’)* an outcome. Therefore the odds quoted are effectively a real time live market price, and reflects the current view of those watching, and involved in, the market. This will include people ’in the know’ - as ever knowledge is power.

The markets can move very quickly, and can also be very wrong, as those of us who got 3/1 on Ukraine winning Eurovision can testify.




definitely not! It was a squeeze. Any more gentle and it would have been classed a fondle and I may or may not have had to have engage lawyers.



Absolutely, or put another way amends her beliefs to best suit her own position, as per a move from staunch Repulicanism to now having an annual lunch with HM @ Sandringham (as the MP for the area), and in other ways I shall reveal in my book (perhaps!)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==



You are Dr Who, and I claim my £10.

But alas i have only the one heart !
 
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