Avanti West Coast cancellations

[E16 Cyclist]

My question remains unanswered as to why First group owned TOCs are suffering so badly from these issues when many TOCs owned by others aren’t if the parent company has nothing to do with it.

I’ll refer to LNER as a comparison again, LNER didn’t cancel a single service, on their full pre covid timetable, for any reason whatsoever on Thursday and that is the norm for them. If this was really entirely a DFT problem caused by restrictions being forced on all TOCs then LNER would have some sort of reliability issues (even if not to the same extent as Avanti and TPE) but they don’t and the only reasonable explanation for this would be differences in quality of management, or more specificaly LNER being better managed than Avanti and TPE.

But what did Avanti inherit from Virgin traincrew wise when they took over the franchise at the end of 2019?

Anything less than a good establishment of traincrew would have left them vulnerable when taking covid into account.

 

[Clarence Yard]

No, it really has nothing to do with the particular OG. It is primarily down to where the TOC was with it’s train crew establishment and training when COVID struck, what movement has happened since, the rest day situation and the DfT’s budgetary controls with that particular TOC. LNER are in a far more stable position than some other TOCs and it shows with their relatively stable train service. Their diagrams are also not as complex as others are, partially due to their “geography”.

TPE was in a mess because the previous MD mucked it up. It needs a lot more money spent on it, to restore it back to some semblance of normality. More than the DfT is prepared to allow, it would seem. Avanti are short at a number of depots and covering is an issue.

 

[Frankfurt]

I honestly find it shocking that depots such as Hull have only recently just signed Manchester Victoria. That is pure and simply mis-management and something that should have happened prior to the 2018 timetable change

I agree, and yet in the same breath Scarborough drivers now don't sign beyond Leeds. Madness.

 

[Watershed]

It's pretty clear that management has a lot to do with it too. If it was solely down to the DFT this would be an issue on all non-open access TOCs, and it simply isn't. Southeastern have only cancelled two trains from London Bridge today because of staff shortages. C2C have only cancelled two trains from Fenchurch Street because of staff shortages today. Chiltern haven't cancelled anything from Marylebone today because of staff shortages. LNER operated 100% of their full pre covid timetable yesterday without any cancellations for any reason (using yesterday as the example as there's been major disruption because of a fatality today). It's all a far cry from what First are managing with Avanti and TPE.

Again, it sounds like you are just looking for an answer that aligns with what you want to hear. Different operators are in very different positions from a traincrew perspective, and that is the simple reason why some TOCs are having to cancel much more trains than others.

LNER have a significant "excess" of crew because they were planning to operate a higher than pre-Covid timetable by now (part of the postponed ECML recast). So they are, understandably, not struggling to run what is effectively their pre-Covid timetable with a couple of extras (e.g. to Middlesbrough).

Similarly C2C and Southeastern are running timetables that are reduced - in some cases halved - compared to pre-Covid. So no surprise that they are managing OK.

Avanti and TPE are trying to run a broadly pre-Covid level of service on most routes, despite having a significant defecit in traincrew numbers, and in the latter case additionally having a big backlog in training and no RDW agreement.

The involvement of the parent companies on day to day operating decisions is very minimal. The DfT has far more of a say, and unfortunately they are refusing to make the decisions that will allow the situation to improve - either signing off on the increase in spending needed to address the traincrew issues, or reducing the timetable (which would have to involve a reduction to a near lockdown TT to ensure reliability).

Threatening to take your business elsewhere, regardless whether you're actually able to take your business elsewhere or not, is a negotiatiating tactic used in many industries including on the railway.

It isn't a serious tactic unless the other side actually believes you might go through with the threat. And in this case there is zero chance of that, because of the huge amount of disruption that would be caused.

And that's quite apart from the fact that these contracts are generally multi year deals which can't simply be terminated on a whim.

The arrangements at Edge Hill are suboptimal to put it mildly, but there is no way the DfT are going to sign-off on an increase in costs. So, frankly, that's the end of the discussion as far as they and the TOCs are concerned.

A friend travelled from Crewe to Leuchars for an academic conference at St Andrews yesterday and was told that he couldn’t rebook his open ticket for an earlier train from Edinburgh as the train was fully booked and he wouldn’t be permitted to travel without a reservation.

Your friend was grossly misadvised. There is no need to hold a reservation to travel on any daytime train. You're not guaranteed a seat without one, but you can still stand if you want.

Avanti, along with several other operators, have falsely marked their services as "reservation compulsory" in the timetable data. This is so that they can force journey planners to issue a reservation with every ticket sold, and to show a service as "sold out" once all reservations have been issued. But it doesn't remotely reflect the policy on the ground.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Again, it sounds like you are just looking for an answer that aligns with what you want to hear. Different operators are in very different positions from a traincrew perspective, and that is the simple reason why some TOCs are having to cancel much more trains than others.

LNER have a significant "excess" of crew because they were planning to operate a higher than pre-Covid timetable by now (part of the postponed ECML recast). So they are, understandably, not struggling to run what is effectively their pre-Covid timetable with a couple of extras (e.g. to Middlesbrough).

Similarly C2C and Southeastern are running timetables that are reduced - in some cases halved - compared to pre-Covid. So no surprise that they are managing OK.

Avanti and TPE are trying to run a broadly pre-Covid level of service on most routes, despite having a significant defecit in traincrew numbers, and in the latter case additionally having a big backlog in training and no RDW agreement.

The involvement of the parent companies on day to day operating decisions is very minimal. The DfT has far more of a say, and unfortunately they are refusing to make the decisions that will allow the situation to improve - either signing off on the increase in spending needed to address the traincrew issues, or reducing the timetable (which would have to involve a reduction to a near lockdown TT to ensure reliability).


It isn't a serious tactic unless the other side actually believes you might go through with the threat. And in this case there is zero chance of that, because of the huge amount of disruption that would be caused.

And that's quite apart from the fact that these contracts are generally multi year deals which can't simply be terminated on a whim.

The arrangements at Edge Hill are suboptimal to put it mildly, but there is no way the DfT are going to sign-off on an increase in costs. So, frankly, that's the end of the discussion as far as they and the TOCs are concerned.


Your friend was grossly misadvised. There is no need to hold a reservation to travel on any daytime train. You're not guaranteed a seat without one, but you can still stand if you want.

Avanti, along with several other operators, have falsely marked their services as "reservation compulsory" in the timetable data. This is so that they can force journey planners to issue a reservation with every ticket sold, and to show a service as "sold out" once all reservations have been issued. But it doesn't remotely reflect the policy on the ground.

I'm sorry but I don't agree with this. Southeastern's timetable is certainly not halved from pre covid, its not even that significantly reduced at all and the peak is still very intensive. And Avanti's current timetable is still nowhere near Pre Covid.

 

[gazzaa2]

They urgently need to prune their timetable and only have services they are very confident they can run.

This unreliability is extremely poor.

If they can only run one train per hour between London and Manchester than that should be the timetable.

Or one of every 3-4 hours between Euston and Lime Street.

 

[DanNCL]

LNER have a significant "excess" of crew because they were planning to operate a higher than pre-Covid timetable by now (part of the postponed ECML recast). So they are, understandably, not struggling to run what is effectively their pre-Covid timetable with a couple of extras (e.g. to Middlesbrough).

LNER are running 1TPH less out of Kings Cross than they'd planned for after the now delayed recast. Avanti are running 3TPH less out of Euston than their pre covid timetable never mind what their timetable would have been after any now delayed recasts. So under that princple Avanti should be doing better than LNER for crew not worse.

Similarly C2C and Southeastern are running timetables that are reduced - in some cases halved - compared to pre-Covid. So no surprise that they are managing OK.

Southeastern are in many areas running what they ran pre covid.

Avanti and TPE are trying to run a broadly pre-Covid level of service on most routes, despite having a significant defecit in traincrew numbers, and in the latter case additionally having a big backlog in training and no RDW agreement.

TPE are running around 50% of their pre covid timetable on both the Newcastle - Manchester/Liverpool and Scotland - Manchester routes, whilst most Scarborough services are only running as shuttles to/from York, and TPE are still suffering mass cancellations. Avanti are running 2/3 of their pre covid timetable to Manchester, 2/3 of their pre covid timetable to Birmingham, and 75% of their pre covid timetable north of Preston, and again that service pattern is suffering mass cancellations.

The involvement of the parent companies on day to day operating decisions is very minimal. The DfT has far more of a say, and unfortunately they are refusing to make the decisions that will allow the situation to improve - either signing off on the increase in spending needed to address the traincrew issues, or reducing the timetable (which would have to involve a reduction to a near lockdown TT to ensure reliability).

You only have to take a look at a large number of what-were franchises; West Coast, East Coast, South Western, East Midlands and ScotRail to name a few, to see drastic changes in service quality very quickly after a change of ownership without any (or with minimal) changes to the timetables.

It isn't a serious tactic unless the other side actually believes you might go through with the threat. And in this case there is zero chance of that, because of the huge amount of disruption that would be caused.

And that's quite apart from the fact that these contracts are generally multi year deals which can't simply be terminated on a whim.

The arrangements at Edge Hill are suboptimal to put it mildly, but there is no way the DfT are going to sign-off on an increase in costs. So, frankly, that's the end of the discussion as far as they and the TOCs are concerned.

EMR stable their units for the early and late Liverpool services in Nottingham. Whilst I'm not suggesting everything that uses Edge Hill go as far afield as that as an alternative, it shows that alternatives are available and they don't neccessarily have to be in Liverpool itself.

Contracts often have break clauses and can in the vast majority of cases be terminated early under set circumstances. Not providing the contracted number of working units for service each day, which is what the result of units being stuck at Edge Hill is, will be in breach of the contract unless the contract is exceptionally poorly written.

 

[jfollows]

Thanks, that’s very useful

1H01 18:00 Euston-Manchester is running with 390114 (https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:P07344/2022-07-09/detailed#allox_id=0). It's on time passing Bletchley at just before 18:30. It appears to be calling additionally at Milton Keynes Central but this won't affect its next working .....

 

[MalaiseForever]

1H01 18:00 Euston-Manchester is running with 390114 (https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:P07344/2022-07-09/detailed#allox_id=0). It's on time passing Bletchley at just before 18:30. It appears to be calling additionally at Milton Keynes Central but this won't affect its next working .....

But do they have a driver to work it back to London… I presume Avanti won‘t know until it is due to depart Manchester ‍

 

[jfollows]

But do they have a driver to work it back to London… I presume Avanti won‘t know until it is due to depart Manchester ‍

Of course that's the right question, but it turns out that they do today. 1A71 is currently at Stockport.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Can we get away from just comparing services now to pre-COVID and then comparing TOCs, please. Obviously that will have an effect on service resilience but the base is the immediately pre-COVID train crew establishment and their training status and that varied from TOC to TOC so unless you know that immediately pre-covid base in each TOC, just comparing services is going to give you a false picture in a lot of cases.

I agree that there is often a difference in service quality when TOCs change ownership. That is because the contract bid process requires you to do things differently and changing the resource base is often required to be built in. (Over) optimising crew diagrams is something that was quite common.

With the DfT so in the driving seat on cost issues, there are going to be no moves to try and say, “you are breaching your contract” when services get cancelled because of their decisions or non-decisions!

 

[350401]

Of course that's the right question, but it turns out that they do today. 1A71 is currently at Stockport.

Yes, pleased to confirm the 20.35 ran as planned, and I’m currently onboard

 

[peter166]

There are already 34 cancellations listed on Avanti Journeycheck for Sunday 10 July

 

[Ianigsy]

This is going to get interesting once the football season starts and there are people trying to get home from Liverpool, Manchester, London and the West Midlands every Saturday evening.

 

[Carlisle]

Southeastern have only cancelled two trains from London Bridge today because of staff shortages. C2C have only cancelled two trains from Fenchurch Street because of staff shortages today. Chiltern haven't cancelled anything from Marylebone today because of staff shortages. LNER operated 100% of their full pre covid timetable yesterday without any cancellations

C2C is entirely DOO & so are large parts of Chiltern & Southeastern .
Weren’t LNER & it’s predecessors widely acknowledged to be the industry’s best payers for frontline roles ? If so they won’t have had any problems recruiting or retaining staff .

 

[Howardh]

I was so looking forward to having a few day trips by train to London in late July and August. But it's just impossible right now - by train and air.

Can't Avanti slim down the timetable to make sure what they plan actually runs?

Also if we had a working government couldn't they allow other TOCs such as LNW to revise their timetable and extend their services to Manchester if possible?

What's going on is totally unacceptable from a pax perspective, we have been waiting over two years to get back to "normal" and now this. Not just Avanti, but the airlines and airports too.

 

[Trackman]

I avoid travelling at weekends on Avanti like the plague now.

What's going on is totally unacceptable from a pax perspective, we have been waiting over two years to get back to "normal" and now this.

Thing is, we (well most of us) know it's a bit of a lottery, but Joe Public doesn't know that.

This is going to get interesting once the football season starts and there are people trying to get home from Liverpool, Manchester, London and the West Midlands every Saturday evening.

I thought the same thing, it will be very interesting as you say.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

This is going to get interesting once the football season starts and there are people trying to get home from Liverpool, Manchester, London and the West Midlands every Saturday evening.

It's no different now to how it's been for last few months. LNWR services out of Lime St and Euston are constantly rammed regardless of the lack of Avanti services, whether there is football or not. It was unmanageable in April/May and it will be the same in September/October

 

[trainophile]

What bugged me last Thursday was that due to a TPE cancellation from Glasgow, Avanti generously picked up all their passengers, and by where I boarded at Carlisle the train was already packed. The seat reservation system wasn't working (it showed reservations but not the correct ones - someone was in my reserved seat and when the display is wrong you can hardly ask them to move), and I had to vacate a seat I'd managed to find when someone appeared with a valid reservation slip, and it was altogether unpleasant. I had to walk through from A to E before I found a seat that wasn't occupied either by a person or someone's luggage (the racks and overheads were full), and ended up being harassed by a chap at the window seat who insisted I swapped and took the window seat as he was getting out before me, then harangued me because although I was polite at first, I wasn't interested in his bombardment of questions and eventually told him I would appreciate it if he stopped cross-examining me. He ended up being quite offensive, luckily a chap in the row in front turned round and gave me a bit of support.

I obviously don't think the TPE customers should have been stranded in Glasgow, but if there was a later TPE service perhaps they should have been advised to wait for that. Oh and the interminable station announcements about Avanti "this train is expected to be very busy, so if you have a flexible ticket you might wish to wait for another service for a more comfortable journey" - who the heck is going to do that, given the announcement seems to apply to every service? Especially when they are an hour apart. If anyone has actually ever made the decision to do that I would love to know. My money is on it being a waste of air time, and so annoying.

 

[Watershed]

LNER are running 1TPH less out of Kings Cross than they'd planned for after the now delayed recast. Avanti are running 3TPH less out of Euston than their pre covid timetable never mind what their timetable would have been after any now delayed recasts. So under that princple Avanti should be doing better than LNER for crew not worse.

It's both about the crewing position as well as the timetable position. Avanti have long been reliant on a lot of RDW, LNER less so.

Not all tph are equal - 1tph extra to Newcastle takes a lot more in terms of resources than 1tph to Birmingham, as the journey time (which influences the numbers of units and hence crew required) is twice as long.

Southeastern are in many areas running what they ran pre covid.

In some areas, yes. In others they are only running half of pre-Covid. But they were generally not quite in as parlous a situation as Avanti, TPE etc. pre-Covid. And they are benefitting from having to run fewer peak extras.

TPE are running around 50% of their pre covid timetable on both the Newcastle - Manchester/Liverpool

Yes and no - whilst it's nominally half the number of tph, halving the service doesn't mean that you need half the number of units or traincrew. The ratio of services to traincrew isn't at all linear, so you often have to cut a disproportionate number of services (say 50%) to save a smaller number of crew diagrams (say 25%).

and Scotland - Manchester routes

That route is (in theory) running to its full pre-Covid frequency, albeit with a few early and late trains withdrawn.

, whilst most Scarborough services are only running as shuttles to/from York, and TPE are still suffering mass cancellations. Avanti are running 2/3 of their pre covid timetable to Manchester, 2/3 of their pre covid timetable to Birmingham, and 75% of their pre covid timetable north of Preston, and again that service pattern is suffering mass cancellations.

This I'd agree with. But unfortunately the crewing position is the more dominant factor.

You only have to take a look at a large number of what-were franchises; West Coast, East Coast, South Western, East Midlands and ScotRail to name a few, to see drastic changes in service quality very quickly after a change of ownership without any (or with minimal) changes to the timetables.

I'm not sure I recognise all of those as examples, but in many cases it is down to the contents of the bid and any cost cutting that was required to win it. So in essence - it isn't a matter of the particular owning group in charge, but rather the conditions of the bid they had to make to win it. And if they hadn't won it, someone else would have done on largely similar terms.

EMR stable their units for the early and late Liverpool services in Nottingham. Whilst I'm not suggesting everything that uses Edge Hill go as far afield as that as an alternative, it shows that alternatives are available and they don't neccessarily have to be in Liverpool itself.

Of course it's possible to come up with alternatives in due course, but they can't be put into place overnight. EMR (and their predecessors) have stabled 158s in Nottingham for the last 3 decades - it's a well established way of doing things.

Meanwhile good luck finding space for 5 extra Pendolinos somewhere near Liverpool... You'd have to build a new depot or expand an existing one. It would be terribly inefficient from a crewing perspective. And all for what - to avoid paying Alstom a little bit more for 24/7 opening hours? I don't think so.

Contracts often have break clauses and can in the vast majority of cases be terminated early under set circumstances. Not providing the contracted number of working units for service each day, which is what the result of units being stuck at Edge Hill is, will be in breach of the contract unless the contract is exceptionally poorly written.

I admire your optimism . There are generally breach thresholds and set procedures for terminating the contract; one set being unavailable won't come remotely close to triggering that.

In the case of TPE, Alstom merely service the units and aren't responsible for any faults that develop. They are doing exactly what the contract requires them to do.

What bugged me last Thursday was that due to a TPE cancellation from Glasgow, Avanti generously picked up all their passengers, and by where I boarded at Carlisle the train was already packed. The seat reservation system wasn't working (it showed reservations but not the correct ones - someone was in my reserved seat and when the display is wrong you can hardly ask them to move), and I had to vacate a seat I'd managed to find when someone appeared with a valid reservation slip, and it was altogether unpleasant. I had to walk through from A to E before I found a seat that wasn't occupied either by a person or someone's luggage (the racks and overheads were full), and ended up being harassed by a chap at the window seat who insisted I swapped and took the window seat as he was getting out before me, then harangued me because although I was polite at first, I wasn't interested in his bombardment of questions and eventually told him I would appreciate it if he stopped cross-examining me. He ended up being quite offensive, luckily a chap in the row in front turned round and gave me a bit of support.

I would have claimed your reserved seat unless the TM had announced that reservations were being lifted. Though it's unfortunate for the person who sat in a seat they thought was unreserved, ultimately if you don't have a reservation, you're not guaranteed a seat.

I obviously don't think the TPE customers should have been stranded in Glasgow, but if there was a later TPE service perhaps they should have been advised to wait for that. Oh and the interminable station announcements about Avanti "this train is expected to be very busy, so if you have a flexible ticket you might wish to wait for another service for a more comfortable journey" - who the heck is going to do that, given the announcement seems to apply to every service? Especially when they are an hour apart. If anyone has actually ever made the decision to do that I would love to know. My money is on it being a waste of air time, and so annoying.

It depends on exactly which service was cancelled (was it a Liverpool service or a Manchester service an hour before a Liverpool one?), but generally the frequency of TPE services from Glasgow is every 2 hours. So passengers would in all likelihood have had the right to be re-routed at the earliest opportunity.

Accordingly TPE didn't exactly have a choice about re-routing passengers onto the next Avanti service.

And as it happens, there is standing ticket acceptance in place on Avanti in the event of TPE cancellations.

 

[D1537]

There are already 34 cancellations listed on Avanti Journeycheck for Sunday 10 July

And yet *again* one of them is the 2324 EUS-WVH, so it'll be car + Thameslink for our night out in London later.

 

[trainophile]

My mistake, just checked on OTT and it was in fact the ex-Edinburgh 3M61 TPE that was cancelled, not a Glasgow . Looks like it would have been 1 hour and 59 minutes to the next one!

 

[Watershed]

My mistake, just checked on OTT and it was in fact the ex-Edinburgh 3M61 TPE that was cancelled, not a Glasgow . Looks like it would have been 1 hour and 59 minutes to the next one!

Not quite sure which one you're referring to there, as it would be a class 1 and 1M61 isn't a headcode used by any of the TPE services. Unfortunately "last Thursday" and "Edinburgh" doesn't narrow it down either, due to the number of cancellations happening at the moment :

 

[trainophile]

It's 3M61. 1612 ex-EDB.

 

[Watershed]

It's 3M61. 1612 ex-EDB.

3M61 is a path that's identical to 1M91 up until Preston. It looks like it's purely in the system to protect the right to route 1M91 via the Chat Moss, rather than via Bolton (as it's booked). 3M61 never actually runs, and if it did it wouldn't be in passenger service (e.g. it would be a driver training run).

I suspect you are therefore referring to 1M91, which was indeed cancelled on Thursday

 

[trainophile]

Fair enough, I'm no expert just a passenger. The attached screenshot shows the service I was referring to.

 

[Mag_seven]

And yet *again* one of them is the 2324 EUS-WVH

I assume Avanti will have to provide alternative transport or overnight accommodation for this cancellation as it is the last train of the day?

 

[gazzaa2]

This is going to get interesting once the football season starts and there are people trying to getsae home from Liverpool, Manchester, London and the West Midlands every Saturday evening.

Was thinking the same. July they might get away with it but it'll be chaos in August if it's like this.

Also a lot of football fans have to rely on getting last trains and Avanti are now blase about cancelling those.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

I assume Avanti will have to provide alternative transport or overnight accommodation for this cancellation as it is the last train of the day?

Are they obliged to do so if the cancellation was implemented by 10 p.m. the day before?

 

[gazzaa2]

It's no different now to how it's been for last few months. LNWR services out of Lime St and Euston are constantly rammed regardless of the lack of Avanti services, whether there is football or not. It was unmanageable in April/May and it will be the same in September/October

It doesn't help that they're still running the post-Covid hourly service (Lime Street-New Street) and still often put 4 carriages on. The 09:07 is always 4 carriages on a Saturday. Got the 10:07 yesterday and that was 4 carriages and therefore packed out, especially nearer Birmingham with a big Cricket match at Edgbaston and an event at the NEC.

There's a chronic shortage of capacity through the network even when the trains do run. The 11 car Avanti's at least provide a decent capacity, when the trains actually run. It only takes a cancellation or two though to cause crush loaded trains.