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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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Annetts key

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In my view, this topic is not the correct place to debate brexit. The U.K. has left the E.U. but is still very much a part of Europe.

As a country that has traded internationally for centuries, we do however have to recognise that we need good relations with the E.U. and that includes reasonable trade arrangements. Isolation and isolationist policies will damage the U.K. and our economy over time. There are a number of countries around the world to look to as examples.

Don't worry, I doubt we'll rejoin.
Oh, I fully expect the U.K. (whatever is left of it at any rate) to rejoin the E.U. at some point.

The E.U. is currently made up of twenty seven member countries. Seven countries wish to join and are in the process of trying to join. In addition three other countries have submitted membership applications in the past, but have not progressed these further. And there are a further three countries that are interested in becoming member states. Four countries have very close trading arrangements with the E.U.

That’s a huge trading block that combined has more of everything than the whole of the U.K., be it money, power, influence, resources, people, land, you name it. And being part of a large trading block may well be important in the future as China and India (for example) become more and more powerful.

So at some point, the U.K. will think again about rejoining. The only question is how long before (1) we seriously consider it and (2) actually do rejoin.

Having said that, I don’t expect the U.K. to change direction by any significant amount in the next five to ten years.

But much improved UK-EU relations is one of the things we need, quite apart from more mature, less reactionary politics which IMO May and Hunt can provide better than some of the foaming-at-the-mouth alternatives.
Time to end the isolationism.
…and at the very least, rejoin the single market.
You know, back to the 1973-92 era. That would be a good start.
Yes, I agree with the quoted sections above.

People do forget that the U.K. was very heavily involved with the single market for very good reasons, because it is (in my view) good for our country.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree here. Like I said, I wish things had been different but ultimately, whatever the reason, the 2019 Election gave Johnson a clear mandate to press ahead with Brexit.
There is no legal requirement for an elected government in this country to do anything in an election manifesto or indeed take any notice of the points/issues that they campaigned on. And it’s not unknown for a change in leader to also mean a change in government direction while still in power, without having a general election.

So the phrase “clear mandate” is extremely dubious and always has been. In a general election, voters are voting for their member of parliament, and their individual reasons will vary. There could well be a number of issues/reasons why one particular MP gets elected in one constituency. And some completely different reasons in other constituencies.

This is the reason that a general election has the word ‘general’ in it.

And sorry to disappoint Boris, but outside his own constituency, his name was not on the ballot paper. Just like brexit was not on the ballot paper.

It is however generally accepted that the Conservatives under Boris did intend to leave the E.U. even if not all voters understood what type of brexit we would likely get.

The main reason that politicians don’t like referendums, is that they don’t want to be tied down to specific stated policies. And generally speaking, on complex issues like brexit where there are countless details and options to consider, a simple binary choice in a referendum causes many problems, as indeed we have seen.

An oversupply of labour has consequences to salaries.
And a significant under supply of labour also has consequences for businesses and the finances of the country as a whole. The treasury needs the tax from the wages of the younger generation to pay for the increasing costs of supporting the older generation. And in this country, the ratio of older people is increasing as people live longer.

But this is all going way off topic…

Back to the topic, assuming Boris is a good boy and doesn’t do anything stupid, it will be interesting to see how a new leader of the Conservative party affects the opinion polls.

Will the Tories be able to gain enough support over the next couple of years during a time when we as a country could be in recession and win the next general election?

Will they unwind some of Boris’s ideas and policies?

How much of the legislation currently going through Parliament will be dropped/abandoned?
 
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RichJF

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Incredible read. I haven't seen the left storm any parliament's after democratic elections in western countries recently...

Daily mail is a poison that continues to divide and conquer to make money.
Well when even Wikipedia banned the Daily Fail as an "unreliable source" it tells you something...
 

Lost property

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Incredible read. I haven't seen the left storm any parliament's after democratic elections in western countries recently...

Daily mail is a poison that continues to divide and conquer to make money.
And to think, only a couple of days ago the rag openly referred to him as "the greased piglet "...now comes the angst for the rag...who to tell the Tory party who is, WILL, be the next PM...they don't want to risk supporting another loser after all.

I have an abiding, well several actually, memory of Mail readers. Got on a L.M. (as was) train at Stafford along with two standard issue sour faced Mail / Tory voters, both females (ladies would be used if they were such) who made a dash for a 4 seat plus table seating...both sat opposite each other by the window, their bags and belongings next to them on the aisle seats, and the table covered with personal items...including their personal copies of the rag...supercilious smirks on their hitherto sour faces.

 

Busaholic

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The wedding party has been moved from Chequers after criticism, although not before Cleverly was defending it on air. Johnson being on the way out certainly hasn't changed his ways.
Not just defending it, it would be 'churlish' for 'us' to deny them 'their day'!!! Not-so-Cleverly reveals the depth of his emotional intelligence, we already knew the lack in other spheres, not that he's the worst one for that in the Cabinet.
 

daodao

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Incredible read. I haven't seen the left storm any parliament's after democratic elections in western countries recently...

Daily mail is a poison that continues to divide and conquer to make money.
Peter Hitchens talks sense as ever. PR would be a disaster for Westminster.
 

dosxuk

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I would really like Sir Beer Starmer to be fined over the "Beergate" incident and thus be forced to resign.

That would wipe the smug self satisfied grin off his face.

Got some bad news for you on that front...

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Angela Rayner have been cleared by Durham Police of breaking lockdown rules.
It follows an inquiry into an event at a Labour MP's office in April 2021.
In a statement, the police said there was "no case to answer" citing an exemption to lockdown rules for "reasonably necessary work".
Sir Keir and Ms Rayner said they would quit their roles if they were found to have broken the law.
Sir Keir said: "For me, this was always a matter of principle.
"Honesty and integrity matter. You will always get that from me."
Ms Rayner said: "Integrity matters in politics. The contrast with the behaviour of this disgraced prime minister couldn't be clearer."
 

nlogax

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I think that is the first time that I have ever seen that sentence.

And hopefully the last, here anyway. Hitchens is as mad as a box of frogs.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Got some bad news for you on that front...
More good news to end this week! I hope that tonight Starmer has a beer and curry to celebrate and posts a pic of it on social media tagging Boris Johnson.
 

DelayRepay

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Back to the topic, assuming Boris is a good boy and doesn’t do anything stupid, it will be interesting to see how a new leader of the Conservative party affects the opinion polls.

Will the Tories be able to gain enough support over the next couple of years during a time when we as a country could be in recession and win the next general election?

Will they unwind some of Boris’s ideas and policies?

How much of the legislation currently going through Parliament will be dropped/abandoned?
The next PM won't have an easy job, but I do think they will be able to turn things around quite quickly.

I wouldn't expect major policy changes as the current policies aren't what led to Johnson's downfall. I think they will have to focus on the economy and inflation - so I hope we get a PM who understands economics. I don't think Boris really understood economics and just saw throwing money at problems as a solution, without thinking through the consequences for pubic debt.

I think we'll see more popular giveaways like the fuel bill credits, but not widescale tax cuts that some were predicting. I think we'll continue to see disagreements about public sector pay rises and more industrial disputes. Essentially more of the same, but hopefully with a bit less sleaze and more integrity.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It would be interesting to know what lead the police to come to their conclusion.

I suppose it depends on differing interpretations of the rules.
There are always differing interpretations of the rules. Sue Gray reported that Boris attended multiple social events during the lockdown periods, but the police only fined him for one of them.
 

SynthD

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Sunak ‘understands’ economics and still went about it poorly. The public doesn’t want his selection of when to turn the money tap on and off. That’s politics, not textbook maths.

I don’t see any great integrity coming forth. The options are generally poisoned by ERG, Brexit, supporting Johnson until this week. Public unawareness should be the least of their concerns.
 

DelayRepay

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Sunak ‘understands’ economics and still went about it poorly. The public doesn’t want his selection of when to turn the money tap on and off. That’s politics, not textbook maths.

I don't know how much control Sunak really had. His predecessor (Javid) quit due to not being able to appoint his own advisors. Sunak's resignation letter spoke of disagreements on economic policy, although maybe he was just being polite!
 

Cloud Strife

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Peter Hitchens talks sense as ever. PR would be a disaster for Westminster.

Why would it be a disaster? The 2007-2011 SNP minority administration in Scotland saw them work with the Tories quite well, and the Tories' willingness to work with the SNP that laid the foundations for the Tories becoming the second party in Scotland.

Having said that, I would prefer the Scottish/Welsh system of PR rather than true PR.
 

Strathclyder

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Peter Hitchins seems to be having a normal one this morning:




Presumably they're now very worried in Daily Mail land that the voters in the next election might get it wrong and elect someone other than the Tory party to government. Which would clearly be a disaster after the last half decade or so of expert leadership. Meanwhile the rest of the Mail is quite a funny read as there's an element of impotent rage that their man has finally been gotten rid of. Well that and clearly Paul Dacre (Mail editor) is worried that his peerage might be in doubt.
The Daily Mail's 'normal' more like. To those of us in the real world, it reads like the ramblings of a utter buffoon who is completely out of his depth 99.9% of the time.

Peter Hitchens talks sense as ever.
The first - and hopefully last - time I'll ever see those particular words strung together like this.
 

nw1

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For Westminster yes for the United Kingdom less so.
Quite. 43% of the vote should not give one party absolute power, yet that kind of figure has produced absolute power for the party concerned, time and again.

Most FPTP supporters, I suspect, are Tory supporters as FPTP disproportionately benefits the Tories - because Lab and Lib Dem arguably have more in common with each other than with the Tories.

For many of the rest of us, FPTP leaves us feeling disenfranchised and unrepresented, and if we're in the dreaded safe seats, voting almost feels like a pointless charade (I will, having said that, always vote, though). It's bad enough that Johnson's replacement will be decided by a small and exceedingly unrepresentative section of the population. While it may be fair enough that (at least for now) it should be another Tory, we should all at least get a say on who that is.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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it should be another Tory, we should all at least get a say on who that is.

That's not really practical though, is it. Could you really sensibly have - say - Labour or LibDem members voting for the leader of the Tory party? Maybe you would be willing to put aside your dislike for the Tories and nevertheless vote for whoever you think is the best (or least bad) candidate, but plenty of other people who dislike the Tories would simply vote for whoever they think is most likely to lose the Tories the next election. (And I'm sure it would be the same if it was the other way round and a Labour PM resigned mid-term). Unless we move to a Presidential style voting system like in the USA or France, then you probably have to accept that you vote for a party in an election, and if the winning party wants to change leader mid-term, then that's up to them. If enough people don't like their choice, then they get to vote them out at the next general election.
 

JamesT

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Quite. 43% of the vote should not give one party absolute power, yet that kind of figure has produced absolute power for the party concerned, time and again.

Most FPTP supporters, I suspect, are Tory supporters as FPTP disproportionately benefits the Tories - because Lab and Lib Dem arguably have more in common with each other than with the Tories.
FPTP benefits a duopoly over a fragmented set of parties. Labour benefit as much from it, see the Blair years.
As we saw from the coalition, at least some LibDems can find plenty in common with the Conservatives.

For many of the rest of us, FPTP leaves us feeling disenfranchised and unrepresented, and if we're in the dreaded safe seats, voting almost feels like a pointless charade (I will, having said that, always vote, though). It's bad enough that Johnson's replacement will be decided by a small and exceedingly unrepresentative section of the population. While it may be fair enough that (at least for now) it should be another Tory, we should all at least get a say on who that is.
Why should people who aren't part of the Conservative party choose their next leader? Do any other parties run open leadership elections?
 

nw1

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FPTP benefits a duopoly over a fragmented set of parties. Labour benefit as much from it, see the Blair years.
As we saw from the coalition, at least some LibDems can find plenty in common with the Conservatives.


Why should people who aren't part of the Conservative party choose their next leader? Do any other parties run open leadership elections?

I wasn't meaning to single out the Tories here, my comments would have applied to the other parties too.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

That's not really practical though, is it. Could you really sensibly have - say - Labour or LibDem members voting for the leader of the Tory party? Maybe you would be willing to put aside your dislike for the Tories and nevertheless vote for whoever you think is the best (or least bad) candidate, but plenty of other people who dislike the Tories would simply vote for whoever they think is most likely to lose the Tories the next election. (And I'm sure it would be the same if it was the other way round and a Labour PM resigned mid-term).
Yes, that's a fair point on reflection. I would not "abuse" the system in this way (I would go for a soft Tory/pro-EU type figure, as the 'least bad' candidate, given the chance) but accept that others may differ.
 

Sorcerer

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Does anyone else find it somewhat hard to be happy at Johnson's resignation? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's finally doing the right thing for perhaps the first time in his life (even then it's likely fuelled out of his own self-interests and not because it's simply the right thing to do), but on the other hand the pessimist within me thinks that the Tories will now just elect a new leader with a relatively clean slate, and with the backing of the press convince voters to vote Conservative since things are somehow different now and that they will solve the problems they're responsible for in the first place and to not risk nasty Labour getting in to worsen the problems they've somehow caused despite not being in power for the last 14 years by the time the next election is scheduled.
 

Cowley

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Does anyone else find it somewhat hard to be happy at Johnson's resignation? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's finally doing the right thing for perhaps the first time in his life (even then it's likely fuelled out of his own self-interests and not because it's simply the right thing to do), but on the other hand the pessimist within me thinks that the Tories will now just elect a new leader with a relatively clean slate, and with the backing of the press convince voters to vote Conservative since things are somehow different now and that they will solve the problems they're responsible for in the first place and to not risk nasty Labour getting in to worsen the problems they've somehow caused despite not being in power for the last 14 years by the time the next election is scheduled.

There is a part of me that feels like that, but Labour are also to blame for some of this especially after disappearing down the Corbyn dead end when we needed them the most.
Labour need to become appealing across the board and then hopefully everyone will start trying a bit harder.

I’m not affiliated with any party. I just want to see some vision and some competence now.
 

SynthD

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They should choose their own leader, but then that leader has no mandate. We only expect a general election because it’s an indirect consequence of bringing the office into disrepute.

Labour are not to blame.
 

Gloster

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Does anyone else find it somewhat hard to be happy at Johnson's resignation? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's finally doing the right thing for perhaps the first time in his life (even then it's likely fuelled out of his own self-interests and not because it's simply the right thing to do), but on the other hand the pessimist within me thinks that the Tories will now just elect a new leader with a relatively clean slate, and with the backing of the press convince voters to vote Conservative since things are somehow different now and that they will solve the problems they're responsible for in the first place and to not risk nasty Labour getting in to worsen the problems they've somehow caused despite not being in power for the last 14 years by the time the next election is scheduled.

As I have said before, it is a dilemma. The longer Johnson stayed in Number 10, the greater the chance of them losing heavily at the next election. But a new leader means a chance that they will survive. A lot will depend on whether they can produce someone who can appear to be untainted by the past or whether the new PM will just be seen as a member of the same old bunch of dodgy incompetents.
 

Bald Rick

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Do any other parties run open leadership elections?

it’s kind of what Labour did in 2015, hence Jeremy Corbyn. I’m aware of several Conservative party members who paid their £3 (or whatever it was) to be able to vote in that one.
 

TheEdge

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There is a part of me that feels like that, but Labour are also to blame for some of this especially after disappearing down the Corbyn dead end when we needed them the most.
Labour need to become appealing across the board and then hopefully everyone will start trying a bit harder.

We've suffered over the years just as much from having a total lack of decent opposition as we have from having the current Tory party in power. A decent opposition may have been able to hold the Tories to account at some time.
 

Sorcerer

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There is a part of me that feels like that, but Labour are also to blame for some of this especially after disappearing down the Corbyn dead end when we needed them the most.
Labour need to become appealing across the board and then hopefully everyone will start trying a bit harder.

I’m not affiliated with any party. I just want to see some vision and some competence now.
I am with you on that one. I think Corbyn's legacy should've at the very least been setting a principle as to where the Labour Party should lean politically while Starmer moderated the party and stood firm on the 2019 manifesto's more popular policies. Instead Starmer just comes across to me as a fence-sitter with no charisma.

As I have said before, it is a dilemma. The longer Johnson stayed in Number 10, the greater the chance of them losing heavily at the next election. But a new leader means a chance that they will survive. A lot will depend on whether they can produce someone who can appear to be untainted by the past or whether the new PM will just be seen as a member of the same old bunch of dodgy incompetents.
I'm kind of hoping one of Johnson's lot gets the job since it will demonstrate that the problem wasn't just Boris Johnson but the Conservative Party as a whole with it's blatant corruption and disregard for the country's best interest. It won't be good short-term, but hopefully it'll result in electoral defeat come 2023/2024.
 

Typhoon

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Does anyone else find it somewhat hard to be happy at Johnson's resignation? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's finally doing the right thing for perhaps the first time in his life (even then it's likely fuelled out of his own self-interests and not because it's simply the right thing to do), but on the other hand the pessimist within me thinks that the Tories will now just elect a new leader with a relatively clean slate, and with the backing of the press convince voters to vote Conservative since things are somehow different now and that they will solve the problems they're responsible for in the first place and to not risk nasty Labour getting in to worsen the problems they've somehow caused despite not being in power for the last 14 years by the time the next election is scheduled.
It was just a question of timing. They would probably have wanted to dump him next year so the next fuel hike would happen on his watch (and possibly one after that).

They have been caught off-guard; Truss having to rush home, all sorts of oddities thinking of putting their names forward - Rehman Chishti anyone? I can think of a dozen Kent MPs who are better than him; even in the cabinet Shapps and Kwateng - and we are only on day two.

And he is still there, he is still Prime Minister. They would have wanted a situation where the Pickfords van was rolling up on Monday.
 

Sorcerer

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It was just a question of timing. They would probably have wanted to dump him next year so the next fuel hike would happen on his watch (and possibly one after that).

They have been caught off-guard; Truss having to rush home, all sorts of oddities thinking of putting their names forward - Rehman Chishti anyone? I can think of a dozen Kent MPs who are better than him; even in the cabinet Shapps and Kwateng - and we are only on day two.

And he is still there, he is still Prime Minister. They would have wanted a situation where the Pickfords van was rolling up on Monday.
When you put it like that, it actually sounds like Johnson actually has a real talent for dragging down the party even after he promised to resign. ;)
 
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