Could the USA experience a second civil war, or perhaps a smaller scale breakup?

[The Ham]

Could there be another civil war, yes.

Although the next question is how likely such an event is?

The answer to that is probably very low.

Although I suspect that there's going to be a fair numbers of factors which make people cross. Inflation, lower standard of living compared to those born in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century, political polarisation, etc.

 

[Western Lord]

I wonder if there are people in the US speculating about civil war in the UK, what with the Northern Ireland situation, Scottish independence, Welsh independence, Cornish independence, Yorkshire independence, London independence.......

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wonder if there are people in the US speculating about civil war in the UK, what with the Northern Ireland situation, Scottish independence, Welsh independence, Cornish independence, Yorkshire independence, London independence.......

I said it over Brexit and I'll say it again - the UK is just too restrained for that to happen.

 

[najaB]

I said it over Brexit and I'll say it again - the UK is just too restrained for that to happen.

Also, very few of us are armed to the teeth.

 

[nlogax]

The US is full to the brim with nice, normal, likeable individuals. Something which may come as a surprise to those who've never been there and rely on some of our more sensationalist news media. Civil war.. nope.

 

[Calthrop]

The US is full to the brim with nice, normal, likeable individuals. Something which may come as a surprise to those who've never been there and rely on some of our more sensationalist news media. Civil war.. nope.

I'm a "professional ostrich" with approaching-minimal interest in / knowledge about current affairs; however, the above would chime in with my personal experience of meeting with individual Americans -- all visitors to the "Old World", which I've never been outside of -- most of whom struck me, as lovely people. One tends to get the picture, that the maniacs attract attention disproportionate to their actual numbers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm a "professional ostrich" with approaching-minimal interest in / knowledge about current affairs; however, the above would chime in with my personal experience of meeting with individual Americans -- all visitors to the "Old World", which I've never been outside of -- most of whom struck me, as lovely people. One tends to get the picture, that the maniacs attract attention disproportionate to their actual numbers.

Not wishing to contradict the point, but it's of note that people who travel internationally tend to be the more open-minded.

 

[RichJF]

Civil War - no.
States succeeding - possibly.

Having family living in the USA & having worked there briefly with many trips visiting, I personally think you're far more likely to see states break away & succeed. There are strong independence movements in California & Texas which would become the 6th & 9th richest countries respectively if they did break away. Some other states have breakaway movements but not as promiment. I often theorise that the USA is too large to successfully govern and it's only a matter of time; say 50-100 years before the country breaks up into smaller areas.

 

[Cowley]

Civil War - no.
States succeeding - possibly.

Having family living in the USA & having worked there briefly with many trips visiting, I personally think you're far more likely to see states break away & succeed. There are strong independence movements in California & Texas which would become the 6th & 9th richest countries respectively if they did break away. Some other states have breakaway movements but not as promiment. I often theorise that the USA is too large to successfully govern and it's only a matter of time; say 50-100 years before the country breaks up into smaller areas.

Interesting. I’m going to change the thread title to reflect these thoughts because it’s been mentioned a few times now.

 

[Elwyn]

I asked 2 American friends, visiting Ireland, about this just last week. They both said that another civil war is a matter that gets minor discussion in the US but isn’t seen as very likely. That said, they said that Texas is seen as a very different state to the rest of the US and that they wouldn’t be too surprised if it broke away. There wouldn’t necessarily be any civil war, simply a decision to go it alone.

 

[nlogax]

'Texit' continues to be on the minds of many. It's been about 150 years since the Texas v White ruling in the Supreme Court which determined that states cannot secede. What's possible now with the current SC justices..well, we've just had a taste of how things can be completely changed.

 

[Senex]

The US is full to the brim with nice, normal, likeable individuals. Something which may come as a surprise to those who've never been there and rely on some of our more sensationalist news media. Civil war.. nope.

Then where do all the Trump supporters come from? (Pre-supposing that it's not possible to be "nice, normal, likeable individuals" if you support Trump's Republicans.)

 

[najaB]

Then where do all the Trump supporters come from? (Pre-supposing that it's not possible to be "nice, normal, likeable individuals" if you support Trump's Republicans.)

The majority of Trump's supporters are nice, normal people - they just believed the lies that they have been fed. And then confirmation bias sets in - they do hear the same things that we hear but interpret them differently because it doesn't fit into their beliefs.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Then where do all the Trump supporters come from? (Pre-supposing that it's not possible to be "nice, normal, likeable individuals" if you support Trump's Republicans.)

There is an interesting aspect of Trump's support in that evangelical Christians have effectively decided that Trump's actions are compatible with their religion, even though he's done plenty of sickening things. The affair with a porn star, the talk ("grab her by the p***y"), the previous support for abortion, the way he's treated people in business, all of these things seem to be overlooked by their support. It is clear that a small amount of evangelicals went over to Biden, but it still remained 80/20 in Trump's favour.

Even Catholics, who had a simple choice between Catholic Biden and obviously not religious Trump, went more or less 50/50.

The question is: why do religious Americans buy so much into Trump? The only answer I have is that there's something about Trump's style that lends itself very well to evangelical Christianity (after all, they rarely have any problems with giving money to pastors who live lives of luxury at the expense of the flock), or perhaps the fact that he demands absolute obedience to his cause.

I just don't think there's an easy answer to it. QAnon is clearly complete nonsense, yet we can see that a significant minority buy into it.

 

[najaB]

The question is: why do religious Americans buy so much into Trump? The only answer I have is that there's something about Trump's style that lends itself very well to evangelical Christianity (after all, they rarely have any problems with giving money to pastors who live lives of luxury at the expense of the flock), or perhaps the fact that he demands absolute obedience to his cause.

Apparently for a lot of them it's because he seems to be the person who will bring on the end times!

Last month, as infernos raged across the West Coast and President Trump countered scientific consensus on climate change, saying, “I don’t think science knows, actually,” Americans of various persuasions got a glimpse of the apocalypse. For many on the left, the fires presented Armageddon in microcosm, proof of the destructive, ongoing processes that imperil humans and the planet alike.

For many on the right, however, the fires were a different sort of sign, and Trump’s comment was a dog whistle reassuring those in the know that science would be allowed to imperil neither God-given profits nor God’s plan for his own creation and how it might come to an end. Not with Trump in charge, anyway.

Donald Trump: The End-Times President

How fundamentalist Christians who believe in the apocalyptic myth of "the rapture" could be shaping Trump's agenda — and American life.

www.rollingstone.com

 

[Gloster]

Religion is big business in the US and what bigger businessman is there than Trump?

 

[Ediswan]

Religion is big business in the US and what bigger businessman is there than Trump?

Warren Buffett.

 

[Gloster]

Warren Buffett.

Just don’t say that to Trump’s face.

 

[najaB]

Warren Buffett.

Warren Buffett is a much *better* businessman, but they don't come much bigger (it terms of making a spectacle) than DJT.

 

[Strathclyder]

Warren Buffett is a much *better* businessman, but they don't come much bigger (it terms of making a spectacle) than DJT.

Code for making a complete arse out of yourself in the process, but not giving a single stuff due to lack of self-awareness, a borderline painful lack of intelligence*, moral bankruptcy or general ignorance. Or all of those coalesced into one repugnant individual who has had the religious American right flock to him like flies to manure, for reasons I still can't wrap my head around. Perhaps it's for the reasons @Cloud Strife outlines in post #44, but I'm otherwise completely at a loss as to what they see in this Cheeto-dusted cadaver and the ghoulish mannequins that are his kids.

*: For those of us outside the bubble, having been subjected to the results of this for the past 7+ years. Listening to him ramble on and on about 7 different kinds of nothing at once makes sticking cattle prods in one's ears a lot more appealing by comparison.

 

[brad465]

If Rupert Murdoch dies before the 2024 election, then the chance of a civil war goes down considerably.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Or all of those coalesced into one repugnant individual who has had the religious American right flock to him like flies to manure, for reasons I still can't wrap my head around.

I think no-one can really make sense of it. He's an awful person that goes against everything that their religion supposedly stands for, yet they love him.

The more cynical of us might suggest that evangelicals are generally not very nice people beneath the surface... I mean, Joel Osteen anyone?

 

[Berliner]

I visit the USA very frequently, have done since I was a child, and have visited almost annually since 2008 as I have strong family and social ties to the USA and I have noticed these divisions more and more on each of my trips. I do not think a civil war is likely, but I do think we will see more domestic terrorism like the 6th January riots and they will become bigger scale and target "the other side". Maybe things like abortion clinics will be targeted by extremists who may now feel emboldened to not just attack the practice with protests and courts, but the people getting and carrying them out.

Long term, the USA may see some states try to leave the union, or push for more autonomy. The USA is a big, diverse, country, and its divisions have been very noticeable for the past 20 years or so, certainly since 9/11. It is hard to find a common cause to unite around and governing such a varied people, by democratic means, is going to get harder and harder. as each new president tiptoes between policies they know their side wants and policies that try to bridge the gaps. In a huge country like Russia or China, which rules with an iron fist, is easy to tramp down on dissent and fill any local government with people sympathetic to the central one, so autonomy means nothing even in areas where it may exist within those systems.

 

[najaB]

Maybe things like abortion clinics will be targeted by extremists who may now feel emboldened to not just attack the practice with protests and courts, but the people getting and carrying them out.

"Maybe"?!? "Will be"?!?

More like "will get even worse" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-abortion_violence#United_States

 

[AlterEgo]

I think no-one can really make sense of it. He's an awful person that goes against everything that their religion supposedly stands for, yet they love him.

The more cynical of us might suggest that evangelicals are generally not very nice people beneath the surface... I mean, Joel Osteen anyone?

Ha! I’ve friends in Houston who have told me aaaallllll about the Osteens. They have a mega church arena near downtown.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Ha! I’ve friends in Houston who have told me aaaallllll about the Osteens. They have a mega church arena near downtown.

And a very nice mansion as well!

Perhaps the thing against civil war is that him and his fellow conmen are making just way too much money from gullible Americans... who wants a pesky civil war when you've got an old sports arena filled to the rafters with people that give you 10% of their income?

 

[Busaholic]

The majority of Trump's supporters are nice, normal people - they just believed the lies that they have been fed. And then confirmation bias sets in - they do hear the same things that we hear but interpret them differently because it doesn't fit into their beliefs.

TV stations get watched a lot more in the U.S. with their supposed 'local' content and views, never mind the Fox mindset that gets programmed into virtually every aspect of their programming. Watching these things on YouTube, I can tell you even police chases on Fox channels can lead to much more idle speculation about the nature of those being 'chased' or followed than on non-Fox channels. It's surprising how often a 'suspected' carjacking, say, was no such thing and in the meantime a driver has been subjected to force, including being shot.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unfortunately there has been what you would probably call a right wing terror attack in the US today, in the form of a mass shooting at an Independence Day parade in Illinois

 

[Gloster]

Unfortunately there has been what you would probably call a right wing terror attack in the US today, in the form of a mass shooting at an Independence Day parade in Illinois

I don’t think that what the motive or general political persuasion of the killer are yet clear: he seems to be described as an 18-20 year old white male (yes, again). However, the obvious likelihood is that he is of the right, but we will have to see. (Meanwhile, several middle-aged black male and female suspects will no doubt suffer accidental slightly fatal gunshot wounds while the police try to apprehend them for making threatening movements by standing with their hands in the air.)

 

[najaB]

Unfortunately there has been what you would probably call a right wing terror attack in the US today, in the form of a mass shooting at an Independence Day parade in Illinois

You call it a terror attack, I call it a Monday.

Sadly, there is a mass shooting (three or more people shot in a single event) every three days on average.