Russia invades Ukraine

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This raises a question. Say for example Putin was stupid enough to invade Lithuania. Would the response of NATO be to bomb the Russians back to their borders, or would they go further and bomb Russian territory?

This would be a situation where Russia had attacked a NATO alliance country, with all that entails. Putin can only play at being God within his own borders as they currently stand.

 

[Cloud Strife]

This raises a question. Say for example Putin was stupid enough to invade Lithuania. Would the response of NATO be to bomb the Russians back to their borders, or would they go further and bomb Russian territory?

I would expect NATO (judging by the weakness of the Russian air defences) to absolutely obliterate key facilities in Kaliningrad and in Belarus, before proposing a peace settlement with the possible occupation of Kaliningrad and Belarus. For sure, Kaliningrad does not survive such an scenario, and with Finland in NATO, Russia would likely lose Karelia as well. This is why Russia won't attack Lithuania or anyone else in NATO conventionally, because they know that there's just too much to lose.

The fascinating thing from this war is that everyone expected this to be the first real cyber war. It hasn't happened, the Russian defences stood up to Anonymous, and equally so, Russian attacks on Ukraine haven't borne much fruit.

That begs the question: If a civil war erupted in Russia, with Moscow surrounded by rebels, wouldn't that be an existential threat to the Russian Federation and imminent danger of Moscow falling?

Yes, absolutely. I'd expect the Russian military to order a nuclear strike on the key areas under rebel control in this situation. Russia does have plenty of tactical nukes, and I imagine they'd be used long before the war reached Moscow.

don't forget the world population has nearly doubled since the 80s.

It's OT, but I foresee Prison Africa in my lifetime. There are very good reasons for the main world powers to turn Africa into a prison colony, and I could easily see them divide Africa into spheres of influence after a very brief and coordinated invasion.

 

[TwoYellas]

There seem to be to many scenarios where nukes could be used in the current conflict. It seems to me that once the current situation in Ukraine is resolved, which unfortunately doesn't seem like anytime soon, will it not be wiser for more effort to be put into cutting back on these weapons and even creating nuclear free areas with rigorous inspections so no one cheats, I've heard people propose these ideas. There's always a damn war going on somewhere, it never ends!

It's seems to me barmy that we have to live with the threat of these terrible arms forever! I feel there's a danger that the current war could escalate, maybe unlikely but it could. I mean how many wars have ever gone to plan? War aims of leaders also constantly seem to alter, I wonder if the Russian ones have, which further adds to the uncertainty. The rather grim estimates people are making of the chances of escalation are quite depressing and the fact we can even get to this point is a massive failure of diplomacy.

Really don't want to see masses of people, from no matter where they are on Earth, instantly vapourised whilst going about their daily business. Of course Putin's a war criminal (like some others) he's also a Kleptocrat, but the way I see it I don't have anything against an ordinary citizen from Russia.

Often ahem 'public relations' during wartime is designed to build support for the state war aims and to create a frenzy of anger towards the 'other', this, in my opinion does not differentiate enough the leaders from the citizens (ordinary people). And our 'public relations' is not immune from this, in my view.

 

[najaB]

There seem to be to many scenarios where nukes could be used in the current conflict. It seems to me that once the current situation in Ukraine is resolved, which unfortunately doesn't seem like anytime soon, will it not be wiser for more effort to be put into cutting back on these weapons and even creating nuclear free areas with rigorous inspections so no one cheats, I've heard people propose these ideas.

The problem with strategic arms limitation/reduction is simply one of trust. None of the major powers want to maintain nuclear arsenals as they are super-expensive, single-use tools but do you dare to give them up if there's a chance the other side isn't? Look at North Korea as an example - they barely have a credible nuclear deterrent, but the fact that they could destroy Seoul or Tokyo is enough to keep Kim in power.

It also doesn't help that the only country to voluntarily give up a sizeable strategic nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it is currently fighting a war of survival against the country that promised to never invade as a condition of giving the weapons up.

 

[TwoYellas]

Look at North Korea as an example - they barely have a credible nuclear deterrent, but the fact that they could destroy Seoul or Tokyo is enough to keep Kim in power.

Yes I've seen rocket man clapping his hands in glee in test launches (kind of like they've scored the winning goal in the World Cup Final). Unfortunately, the message seems to be have these missiles and nobody is going to invade!

Regrettably, Ukraine is not the only potential flashpoint.

 

[Trackman]

Yes I've seen rocket man clapping his hands in glee in test launches (kind of like they've scored the winning goal in the World Cup Final). Unfortunately, the message seems to be have these missiles and nobody is going to invade!

Regrettably, Ukraine is not the only potential flashpoint.

US intelligence think he might conduct another nuke test soon.
I think he's missing the attention he had in the past, what with Ukraine war going on and everything!

 

[dgl]

US intelligence think he might conduct another nuke test soon.
I think he's missing the attention he had in the past, what with Ukraine war going on and everything!

If that happened we could just say to him "no need to test ours mate, we already know ours work!"

 

[Trackman]

If that happened we could just say to him "no need to test ours mate, we already know ours work!"

Trump said something that - 'My button is bigger than yours - and it works!'

 

[najaB]

In an interesting development, Russia says it has now left Snake Island. Purely for humanitarian reasons, and nothing at all to do with constant attacks from the Ukrainian armed forces.

Snake Island move shows we're not hampering food exports - Russia
We've got more now from the Russian Ministry of Defence on its withdrawal from Snake Island.

The ministry says the move shows the global community "the Russian Federation is not hampering the UN's efforts to organise a humanitarian corridor to ship farming produce out of Ukraine".

It says the decision will mean Kyiv can no longer suggest that any food crisis and inability to export grain is "due to Russia's total control of the northwestern part of the Black Sea".

"Now it is up to the Ukrainian side that is still not clearing the Black Sea coastline, including the harbour waters," the ministry says.

BBC News - click here

 

[DustyBin]

In an interesting development, Russia says it has now left Snake Island. Purely for humanitarian reasons, and nothing at all to do with constant attacks from the Ukrainian armed forces.


BBC News - click here

I’ve just seen this. As you state they’ve been under heavy bombardment on the island for some time now, and their most recent attempt to get an anti-aircraft system there was thwarted according to a number of twitter sources.

I’m not sure if this is actually of any relevance to the situation in Odessa, but Russia is suggesting that Ukraine should now open up the port. It looks like an attempt to turn a military defeat into a PR win to me……

 

[Chingy]

Trouble is, I can see Russia taking advantage of the situation.

Once Ukraine de-mine the waters around Odessa, I can see a fleet of Russia warships making a beeline from Crimea to Odessa.

 

[DustyBin]

Trouble is, I can see Russia taking advantage of the situation.

Once Ukraine de-mine the waters around Odessa, I can see a fleet of Russia warships making a beeline from Crimea to Odessa.

That’s obviously the danger, however the Ukrainians have Harpoon as well as their own Neptune anti-ship missiles deployed in and around Odessa. Any Russian assault from the sea would get “messy”.

 

[Gloster]

Or the Russians could wait until the Ukrainians clear the mines and then quietly sow some new ones. When a neutral ship is mined, the Russians say, “Look how careless they are about other peoples’ lives.” I am not sure if it is possible for the Russians to leave some mines in deep cover so that the Ukrainians would not find them and clear them, but if it is possible this would be another possibility.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Once Ukraine de-mine the waters around Odessa, I can see a fleet of Russia warships making a beeline from Crimea to Odessa.

It won't work. Ukraine has plenty of anti-ship missiles in place now, and the Russians will be well aware that they can't replace the Black Sea Fleet due to the closure of the Bosphorus.

It seems to me that Russia has withdrawn because they had no choice. Ukraine was pounding it constantly, and Russia had no way of protecting it.

 

[Annetts key]

I think if we directly attacked Russian troops there would be a very high chance of it escalating to that.

If a Western power attacked Russian troops you think Putin would launch Nuclear missiles in a first strike attack against one (or more) Western countries?

If it was a massive attack that threatened to advance quickly and completely overwhelm the Russian army, maybe. But otherwise, no. Because first Russia would deploy (or deploy more of) its conventional forces.

I think you are being a bit dramatic here.

The Russian forces that have entered Ukraine have suffered massive losses and it’s clear that the Russian military (and Putin) does not care about one jot about civilian deaths. Or for that matter, care much about their own military personnel. But there has been no signs of any increase in activity in any of Russia’s nuclear weapon facilities. So far Russia has not used any nuclear weapons in this war. And to date, it sure looks like Russia does not want to use any.

Obviously it would not be anything like the same if Western conventional forces directly attacked Russian territory (and by this, I mean the internationally recognised land of the Russian Federation, not any lands that have been annexed by Russia). Russia would consider the scale of the attack in its response.

So if the attack from a Western country was just a border clash, or an attack on a military facility within say, 50 miles from the Russian border, it’s extremely unlikely that Russia would respond with nuclear weapons.

The things is, that calculation also applies on the Russian side. Their military know that if they start a nuclear conflict it's the end for them as well. So they will do everything that they can to avoid it as well, despite Putin's sabre rattling.

Exactly. Putin likes talking about Russia’s nuclear weapons. It makes him feel big, he wants to depict the image that Russia is still a superpower. And he wants to remind both his home audience and leaders of other countries that he has control of Russian nuclear weapons. And he knows that by saying these things, it may cause the leaders of the Western countries to think carefully before acting. Giving his military more time.

Putin also knows that launching a nuclear first strike would be the end of him, his family and his friends (I assume he must has some). And even if he did survive, his country would be a smouldering nuclear wasteland. Not exactly the story he would want historians to put down to him….

So, just like Western leaders would only use nuclear weapons as a last resort, the same almost certainly applies to Putin/Russia.

Also, if Putin did try to launch a nuclear first strike, the Russian military may see this as weakness from him, and make him disappear. Or maybe someone in his government would do the same.

So, no, I don’t see any even remote chance that Putin would use any nuclear weapons even if a Western country carried out a small attack on Russia.

 

[najaB]

So, no, I don’t see any even remote chance that Putin would use any nuclear weapons even if a Western country carried out a small attack on Russia.

Which is almost certainly not going to happen. Attacks on Russian forces in Ukraine, maybe. But on Russian people or facilities in Russia? Not a chance.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Also, if Putin did try to launch a nuclear first strike, the Russian military may see this as weakness from him, and make him disappear. Or maybe someone in his government would do the same.

So, no, I don’t see any even remote chance that Putin would use any nuclear weapons even if a Western country carried out a small attack on Russia.

Yes, exactly this. The Russian military leaders know that there's very little of interest to the West within internationally-recognised Russian territory, and even Crimea is of little interest given how vulnerable it is from a military perspective. If NATO launched a first strike, I fully expect them to take Western Belarus in order to give some breathing space around Suwałki, but again, for what purpose?

Even with Kaliningrad, it's enough to simply close the borders and watch them suffer. They're already experiencing considerable pain as a result of the sanctions, and closing off Kaliningrad by land would hurt Russia even more. Why invade when you can simply force Russia into mounting a hugely expensive effort to keep Kaliningrad supplied by air and sea?

I strongly suspect that if Putin tried to order a nuclear attack, there would be an immediate coup and Putin retired to his dacha. The oligarchs, the intelligence officers and the military generals have absolutely no interest in nuclear war, because they know they can't win.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Why invade when you can simply force Russia into mounting a hugely expensive effort to keep Kaliningrad supplied by air and sea?

Shades for the Berlin airlift after WWII when Russia had it surrounded.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Shades for the Berlin airlift after WWII when Russia had it surrounded.

Very much so, except with a Russian economy on its knees and with no experience in this sort of logistics.

IMO, it wouldn't hurt NATO to make an ultimatum that either the attacks on civilian infrastructure stop, or Kaliningrad will be completely blockaded.

 

[najaB]

Very much so, except with a Russian economy on its knees and with no experience in this sort of logistics.

IMO, it wouldn't hurt NATO to make an ultimatum that either the attacks on civilian infrastructure stop, or Kaliningrad will be completely blockaded.

While it would be effective, it's difficult to make the case that it's a legitimate military strategy. It's basically using Russian civilians as pawns.
--------
I always knew I didn't like Bernie Ecclestone but he's really outdone himself this time:

Ex-Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone, 91, has described Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "first-class person" who is doing something he believes is right for Russia.

The two men have known each other for several years, and reportedly became friends after Russia was first given the opportunity to host an F1 Grand Prix in 2014.

Asked on ITV's Good Morning Britain if he still regards Putin as a friend, Ecclestone says: "I'd still take a bullet for him."

He also said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could have avoided the conflict if he had held talks with Mr Putin "who is a sensible person and would have listened to him".

Ukraine round-up: Russia leaves Snake Island and Putin's topless G7 comments

A small but significant victory for Ukraine and Putin criticises G7 leaders' physiques - today's round-up.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Strathclyder]

I always knew I didn't like Bernie Ecclestone but he's really outdone himself this time:

Ukraine round-up: Russia leaves Snake Island and Putin's topless G7 comments

A small but significant victory for Ukraine and Putin criticises G7 leaders' physiques - today's round-up.

www.bbc.co.uk

This is either the result of senility, a staggering level of ignorance or just plain jackassery. Likely a mix of all 3. This part is particularly laughable however:

He also said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could have avoided the conflict if he had held talks with Mr Putin "who is a sensible person and would have listened to him".

The assertion that Putin is a sensible person nowadays (he could have passed for one in times past) is only the second most nonsensical part of that quote. Then again, Ecclestone is far from the first person I'd consult on such matters, so it's best to ignore such tripe.

 

[najaB]

The two most current stories on the Ukraine War news tracker paint a picture of even more cynical Russian strategy:

Targeting the main port through which Ukraine could export wheat:

Russia denies targeting civilians in Odesa missile strikes

The Kremlin has denied targeting civilians after Russian missile strikes killed at least 19 people near the Black Sea port of Odesa on Friday. Ukrainian officials say at least 16 people had been killed at the apartment block in the village of Serhiivka, and another three, including one child, in strikes that hit nearby holiday resorts. The Ukrainian government accused Russia of waging a war on civilians.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "I would like to remind you of the president's words that the Russian Armed Forces do not work with civilian targets."

While at the same time exporting wheat that they've 'acquired' from Ukrainian farms/storage silos:

How is Russia stealing grain from Ukraine?

It's very hard to track individual shipments of stolen Ukrainian grain but there is plenty of evidence that much of it goes first to Crimea.

"They take grain to the annexed Crimea first, where they transport it to Kerch or Sevastopol [ports], then they load Ukrainian grain on Russian ships and go to the Kerch Strait," says Andrii Klymenko, an expert at the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies in Kyiv.

"There, in the Kerch Strait [between Crimea and Russia], they transfer Ukrainian grain from small ships on to bulk carriers, where it is mixed with grain from Russia - or in some cases, they sail to this area just to give the appearance they are loading up with Russian grain."

He adds this is then exported with Russian certificates, saying that it's Russian grain.

Ships have then often headed on to Syria or Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said they have investigated claims about Ukrainian grain being shipped to Turkey and so far not found any evidence.

"We saw that the ships' port of departure and the origin of the goods is Russia on the records," he said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-62006801

 

[Pete_uk]

Not long after Ukraine gets some long range multi launch missiles the Russians give up on Snake Island.
I hope that's just the start.

 

[kylemore]

Very much so, except with a Russian economy on its knees and with no experience in this sort of logistics.

IMO, it wouldn't hurt NATO to make an ultimatum that either the attacks on civilian infrastructure stop, or Kaliningrad will be completely blockaded.

The Russian economy has weathered the sanctions with aplomb, it is awash with assets - it is the "western" economies - particularly those of western Europe who are tanking with talk of energy and even food rationing.

As for your second sentence, such acts would lead to open warfare between Nato and Russia - a war which Nato - particularly the European element is woefully unprepared for, not least by emptying their arsenals to send to Ukraine only for it all to be destroyed, captured or sold on the black market. A report by no less than the Royal United Services Institute has admitted that the "West" no longer has the industrial capacity to produce armaments on a scale that the Russians appear to have. The only option would be to go nuclear right from the start!

 

[Cloud Strife]

The Russian economy has weathered the sanctions with aplomb, it is awash with assets - it is the "western" economies - particularly those of western Europe who are tanking with talk of energy and even food rationing.

Do you really believe everything you read in the Russian media?

The Russian economy is in deep trouble. People are being charged up to $150 to receive foreign currencies in their accounts, Russia is forced to sell energy well below market value, they're struggling to find spare parts for planes, factories are lying idle for a lack of customers. Take what happened with the Renault factory. Russia can still produce cars, but they're being produced on the same technological level as a 1980s Lada.

The numbers are staggering. We're not talking a 10-20% decrease in production, but numbers approaching 50% and beyond.

Then there's the recent default on debt. The Russian Central Bank themselves say that GDP will shrink by 7.8% this year, which is a huge number when your country has a GDP comparable to Portugal despite having around 135m more people.

As for your second sentence, such acts would lead to open warfare between Nato and Russia - a war which Nato - particularly the European element is woefully unprepared for, not least by emptying their arsenals to send to Ukraine only for it all to be destroyed, captured or sold on the black market. A report by no less than the Royal United Services Institute has admitted that the "West" no longer has the industrial capacity to produce armaments on a scale that the Russians appear to have. The only option would be to go nuclear right from the start!

That is nothing more than repeating Russian propaganda word for word. Frightening.

Just to debunk it easily though, the Russian military industry simply cannot produce what's needed. They relied heavily on imports for producing advanced weaponry, and so they'll be forced to resort to simple Soviet-era designs that will be torn to pieces by Western equipment.

 

[kylemore]

Do you really believe everything you read in the Russian media?

The Russian economy is in deep trouble. People are being charged up to $150 to receive foreign currencies in their accounts, Russia is forced to sell energy well below market value, they're struggling to find spare parts for planes, factories are lying idle for a lack of customers. Take what happened with the Renault factory. Russia can still produce cars, but they're being produced on the same technological level as a 1980s Lada.

The numbers are staggering. We're not talking a 10-20% decrease in production, but numbers approaching 50% and beyond.

Then there's the recent default on debt. The Russian Central Bank themselves say that GDP will shrink by 7.8% this year, which is a huge number when your country has a GDP comparable to Portugal despite having around 135m more people.



That is nothing more than repeating Russian propaganda word for word. Frightening.

Just to debunk it easily though, the Russian military industry simply cannot produce what's needed. They relied heavily on imports for producing advanced weaponry, and so they'll be forced to resort to simple Soviet-era designs that will be torn to pieces by Western equipment.

I don't read any Russian media - do you really believe everything you read in the British media?

Russian energy is finding plenty of customers to replace the economically declining west. They may have to discount to begin with but they're not selling at a loss. Overall increasing world prices for energy can only have the effect of bolstering energy exporters of which Russia is one of the largest.
The US led attempt to put an "Oil price cap" in place is failing miserably.

There is no default on debt. Russia has the money to pay, wants to pay, and the bond holders know it, which is why they're likely to sue the US govt for introducing the artificial block on payments in order to produce their cockamamie "default".

As for military industrial capacity the proof is in the pudding. The Russians appear to have the capacity to produce virtually limitless quantities of shells and missiles - many of them as advanced or even better in performance than the west's. If you're looking for an industrial economy in it's last throes - just look about you.

Yes they are having to change where they're sourcing some industrial products including commercial airliner parts (they are after all under a form of blockade), in this they are being assisted by many countries not least China but also by NATO member Turkiye, and this process is proceeding rapidly.

 

[Yew]

As for military industrial capacity the proof is in the pudding. The Russians appear to have the capacity to produce virtually limitless quantities of shells and missiles - many of them as advanced or even better in performance than the west's. If you're looking for an industrial economy in it's last throes - just look about you.

You seem remarkably sure it's new production, how can we tell if they're just using old Soviet stockpiles?

 

[najaB]

The Russians appear to have the capacity to produce virtually limitless quantities of shells and missiles - many of them as advanced or even better in performance than the west's.

Then why is Belarus sending ammunition to Russia?

 

[kylemore]

You seem remarkably sure it's new production, how can we tell if they're just using old Soviet stockpiles?

I'm not sure, however there are indicators - such as the advanced nature of many of the missile systems - that indicate a post Soviet origin.

Actually you may be right about stockpiles, just not Soviet era ones. I think the Russians have been planning this since at least 2014 when it became clear just how low the US and their hangers on where prepared to stoop in deliberately creating a mess on their doorstep. They've known they where going to have to deal with it eventually - so yes perhaps the preparations have been long in the making.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Jul 2022 ==

Then why is Belarus sending ammunition to Russia?

Who knows?

But the Russians certainly don't seem to be short of anything at the moment.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Sri Lanka appear to see Russia as a source of oil to overcome their immediate shortage problems.