Keir Starmer and the Labour Party

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If he introduces Proportional Representation it's entirely possible that Momentum would decide to form a new party knowing they might get votes with representation, unlike under FPTP where their best hope is to hijack a mainstream party. This would benefit the remaining Labour party as it no longer looks divided and those fearful of Momentum would be more likely to vote for it.

For those not "in the know", what are the aims of Momentum?

 

[Gloster]

For those not "in the know", what are the aims of Momentum?

‘Make Jeremy Great Again.’ Frankly, I don’t think they have a clear idea of what they want other than getting their Labour into power to do...well...something or other. (Subs: please ask Jeremy.) I have no doubt that if they did get into power they would immediately split into the Peoples’ Front for Jeremy, the Popular Front for Jeremy, etc.

 

[GS250]

For those not "in the know", what are the aims of Momentum?

'Momentum'....on the surface appear to be a very middle class, Metropolitan based entity with little in common with traditional 'red wall' Labour.

One of their aims appears to be to 'take down' the rich. I presume they will be offering to downgrade their own lifestyles to obtain their objectives?

 

[The Ham]

'Momentum'....on the surface appear to be a very middle class, Metropolitan based entity with little in common with traditional 'red wall' Labour.

One of their aims appears to be to 'take down' the rich. I presume they will be offering to downgrade their own lifestyles to obtain their objectives?

I would guess that the rich are likely to be those earning more than they are.

Of course ask them what that figure is and chances are nobody knows (or a lot of in fighting over what it should be).

 

[GS250]

I would guess that the rich are likely to be those earning more than they are.

Of course ask them what that figure is and chances are nobody knows (or a lot of in fighting over what it should be).

This exactly. Being unaware of your own relative privilege doesn't really help matters. Especially when you are lecturing those who are less well off than you about helping others.

 

[nw1]

Indeed it wasn't a stellar result in Wakefield and I feel Labour are really wallowing around without a really clear understanding of who their likely supporters are and how to target them. Brexit voters aren't going to switch back to Labour readily so the red wall seats won't fall easily.

Is this true though? Is it not more likely the case that (particularly by 2024) people will realise the Cult of Brexit has not improved their lot, and will not be put off by the likely ambiguous message coming out of Labour regarding EU relations?

Granted current Labour isn't doing as well as 1994/95, but I don't think the Tories are doing especially well either. It's a more the case at the moment that people aren't enthused by any of the parties especially, as none are offering a truly positive and optimistic message, and people will go for the least worst option.

As long as proper tactical voting takes place, I think there's a good chance of a change of government.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Granted current Labour isn't doing as well as 1994/95, but I don't think the Tories are doing especially well either. It's a more the case at the moment that people aren't enthused by any of the parties especially, as none are offering a truly positive and optimistic message, and people will go for the least worst option.

And that is a most sorry state of affairs to find ourselves in.

 

[Acfb]

There's talk of three Conservative MPs defecting to Labour (presumably in 'marginal' seats) but I will believe it when I see it. Perhaps there will be a surprise one like Wakeford (who most people hadn't heard of) but I doubt it.

It's hard to think of plausible names in marginal seats (and there is also the issue that Labour is already selecting PPCs) - I would be amazed if e.g. Robert Largan (High Peak) defected.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There's talk of three Conservative MPs defecting to Labour (presumably in 'marginal' seats) but I will believe it when I see it. Perhaps there will be a surprise one like Wakeford (who most people hadn't heard of) but I doubt it.

It's hard to think of plausible names in marginal seats (and there is also the issue that Labour is already selecting PPCs) - I would be amazed if e.g. Robert Largan (High Peak) defected.

The 'exclusive' report in the Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...e-red-wall-conservatives-talks-defect-labour/) refers to MPs from Red Wall seats. I think that would rule out High Peak, as I believe that's a longstanding marginal that's been Tory-held before, so not really a red wall seat.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

As long as proper tactical voting takes place, I think there's a good chance of a change of government.

For sure and whilst the LibLab pact seems off the agenda of both parties thats not surprising at this stage but ultimately it does need a campaign by all opposition parties (except Reform et al) to have a message that getting the Tories is what really matters.

 

[Acfb]

The 'exclusive' report in the Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...e-red-wall-conservatives-talks-defect-labour/) refers to MPs from Red Wall seats. I think that would rule out High Peak, as I believe that's a longstanding marginal that's been Tory-held before, so not really a red wall seat.

It's hard to guess who it could be TBH as there are very few genuine red wall seats with Tory MPs who are not complete nutters like e.g. Scott Benton.

Maybe some very anonymous MPs like e.g. Simon Fell.

 

[Gloster]

Crossing the floor from Conservative to Labour or vv. has not generally gone well for the crosser, particularly if they stand in the same seat. I suspect that most voters see it as a self-serving attempt to stay in Parliament, rather than a principled decision. I exclude those who transfer across to the LibDems: that is hardly a sign of great ambition. Those who have crossed and stayed on seem mostly have been found new seats. (This has not been deeply researched.)

 

[birchesgreen]

There was one defector who joined during the Blair regime, i think he didn't recontest his seat but was "given" another Labour safe seat and later became a minister... and i've got a complete mental blank on his name!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There was one defector who joined during the Blair regime, i think he didn't recontest his seat but was "given" another Labour safe seat and later became a minister... and i've got a complete mental blank on his name!

It was Shaun Woodward. He was succeeded in his (Conservative) Witney seat by a certain Mr. D. Cameron. So I guess we can speculate about how different history might have been if he hadn't defected

 

[daodao]

It was Shaun Woodward. He was succeeded in his (Conservative) Witney seat by a certain Mr. D. Cameron. So I guess we can speculate about how different history might have been if he hadn't defected

Mr Woodward moved to the safe Labour seat of St Helens South at the general election in 2001, allowing David Cameron to succeed him in Witney. He remained an MP until 2015 and was Secretary of State for Northern Ireland in the Brown cabinet.

 

[TheBigD]

Conservative Quentin Davies also crossed the floor of the house to join Gordon Brown's Labour in 2007.

 

[Yew]

If he introduces Proportional Representation it's entirely possible that Momentum would decide to form a new party knowing they might get votes with representation, unlike under FPTP where their best hope is to hijack a mainstream party. This would benefit the remaining Labour party as it no longer looks divided and those fearful of Momentum would be more likely to vote for it.

How dare the Labour party have socialists in it.

 

[Busaholic]

The 'exclusive' report in the Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...e-red-wall-conservatives-talks-defect-labour/) refers to MPs from Red Wall seats. I think that would rule out High Peak, as I believe that's a longstanding marginal that's been Tory-held before, so not really a red wall seat.

Neither of the two female MPs whose names I've seen in the press linked to meetings with Labour could be described as representing Red Wall seats. One has been a long time critic of Johnson.

 

[birchesgreen]

It was Shaun Woodward. He was succeeded in his (Conservative) Witney seat by a certain Mr. D. Cameron. So I guess we can speculate about how different history might have been if he hadn't defected

Thats right! He set off quite a butterfly of changes.

 

[nw1]

Thats right! He set off quite a butterfly of changes.

That said, I suspect Cameron would have entered parliament in 2001 for a different seat.

But if Cameron didn't join parliament until 2005 or later? Would the Tories have stuck with right-wingers like Duncan Smith and Howard? If so, I suspect we'd have got a hung parliament in 2010 with Labour having the most seats, a Lib-Lab pact, no Brexit referendum, no Brexit, no Johnson - and the country would be very much less divided by now.

I might suspect that in such a scenario the Tories would have then got in by 2015 (under Cameron or someone like him) - but perhaps by the equivalent timescale for a Brexit referendum (2021) the fashion for knocking the EU would have faded.

 

[Typhoon]

Thats right! He set off quite a butterfly of changes.

There was also Peter Temple-Morris, the MP for Leominster, who joined Labour in 1998 (having been suspended by the Conservatives a year earlier).

 

[nw1]

Neither of the two female MPs whose names I've seen in the press linked to meetings with Labour could be described as representing Red Wall seats. One has been a long time critic of Johnson.

Who are these MPs incidentally? Just curious.

 

[LittleAH]

How dare the Labour party have socialists in it.

It's nothing to do with being a socialist. The problem with those who consistently say Labour want to eradicate the socialists is that they are idealists who would rather be in perpetual opposition than actual govern. It's the same age old problem. Compromise isn't in their nature nor vocabulary.

 

[Acfb]

Conservative Quentin Davies also crossed the floor of the house to join Gordon Brown's Labour in 2007.

Only a few Tory MPs defected to Labour between 1997-2010. Robert Jackson (Wantage) also did it just before the 2005 election (in which he retired) and is generally forgotten about.

 

[Busaholic]

Who are these MPs incidentally? Just curious.

One was Caroline Nokes, MP for Romsey, a seat which the LibDems will definitely have their sights on again.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Neither of the two female MPs whose names I've seen in the press linked to meetings with Labour could be described as representing Red Wall seats. One has been a long time critic of Johnson.

One was Caroline Nokes, MP for Romsey, a seat which the LibDems will definitely have their sights on again.

Sounds like there are various conflicting reports going around - which is perhaps not too surprising if we're basically dealing with unconfirmed rumours. My recollection of the Daily Telegraph article is that it specifically referred to three male MPs, but I guess from your post that some other source is talking about female MPs. My understanding is that Caroline Nokes has specifically denied that she is thinking of defecting, as has Dehenna Davison. On the other hand, I guess you might consider that anyone thinking of defecting would say that until the point where they make the announcement.

 

[nw1]

One was Caroline Nokes, MP for Romsey, a seat which the LibDems will definitely have their sights on again.

OK thanks - interesting. Would she realistically defect to Labour though? The Lib Dems, maybe.

 

[Typhoon]

OK thanks - interesting. Would she realistically defect to Labour though? The Lib Dems, maybe.

Nokes to Labour - no chance (as you appear to be implying). The only reason I don't dismiss the LibDems is Europe. I would say that she will stay and fight Romsey, and there is a fair chance she would succeed. To me she is the stereotype Conservative woman MP, she has no reservation about making her voice heard and I wouldn't be surprised if she isn't perfectly happy being Chair of the Women and Equalities Select Committee. Right now I would say her political aim is to play a part in getting rid of the Prime minister, if not for the sins of the son but for the sins of the father.

 

[Busaholic]

Nokes to Labour - no chance (as you appear to be implying). The only reason I don't dismiss the LibDems is Europe. I would say that she will stay and fight Romsey, and there is a fair chance she would succeed. To me she is the stereotype Conservative woman MP, she has no reservation about making her voice heard and I wouldn't be surprised if she isn't perfectly happy being Chair of the Women and Equalities Select Committee. Right now I would say her political aim is to play a part in getting rid of the Prime minister, if not for the sins of the son but for the sins of thVe father.

i was only the messenger! I would tend to agree with you on the unlikelihood, to put it lightly, of this scenario, but it was reported in a newspaper not given to sensationalism or obvious political bias, on its news pages at least. Victoria Atkins was asked on Woman's Hour last Friday morning to comment on the by-elections and didn't demur, only saying it gave her party much to mull over, nothing more. nothing less. Her lack of even a grudging endorsement of the Grand Poobah was intended to be noteworthy, in my opinion.

 

[Typhoon]

i was only the messenger! I would tend to agree with you on the unlikelihood, to put it lightly, of this scenario, but it was reported in a newspaper not given to sensationalism or obvious political bias, on its news pages at least. Victoria Atkins was asked on Woman's Hour last Friday morning to comment on the by-elections and didn't demur, only saying it gave her party much to mull over, nothing more. nothing less. Her lack of even a grudging endorsement of the Grand Poobah was intended to be noteworthy, in my opinion.

I wasn't pointing the finger! However, I wonder whether putting her name forward is to divert attention from waverers so they can make their decision without harassment.
Atkins - interesting, she's a minister. I would say the Prime Minister is being tolerated so that he can take the flack. The disadvantage is that he can do quite a lot of damage as he seeks to regain favour through measures which he thinks might be popular with voters when it is his behaviour that is turning them against him.
I am reminded of part of the January 6th hearings I was watching when they interviewed (I think it was) the Georgia Secretary of State, he was explaining why Trump lost in a Republican state. According to him, a significant number of voters abstained for the top post then went straight down voting for the GOP in all other categories. It appears that, in that state at least, it was Trump who lost the election, not Biden that won it. The issue the Conservatives may have is that such is the public's dislike of the actions of the Prime Minister, that unless there is a significant gap in time between his departure and the election that even replacing him might not be enough.