Russia invades Ukraine

[Strathclyder]

Russia meanwhile is being forced to use conscripts and T-62s so they’re not exactly in a great position are they?

To anyone living in this reality, it's patently obvious that Russia has been sustaining catastrophic losses for the territorial gains they were bound to be making here to the point of having to send conscripts and T-62s out into the battlefield, but if you were to listen to the pro-Putin indvidiuals on here and elsewhere, this was all part of their grand plan from the very start. Like I said a few dozen posts ago: 'It's all a cunning ruse!' (more like bloody mindnumbing having to read the same pro-Putin BS time and again).

 

[najaB]

I saw a report this morning that says that Su-57(s?) have been deployed on several combat missions.

A few days after Russia launched its military operations in Ukraine, a video purportedly showing a Russian Su-57 fighter jet flying over northern Ukraine surfaced on the internet. However, the claims remained unverified back as there was no official confirmation from Moscow.

The Su-57 stealth fighters are now believed to have made their combat debut in Ukraine more than three months into the war, amid doubts over Russia’s reluctance to deploy its ‘best’ fighter jets.

The Sukhoi Su-57 Felon, the newest fighter jet of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and the only stealthy fighter in its arsenal, was deployed during a military operation in Ukraine, a source in the military-industrial complex informed state-media TASS.

1st Combat Deployment? Su-57 Stealth Fighters Actively Participated In Ukraine War - Russian State Media

A few days after Russia launched its military operations in Ukraine, a video purportedly showing a Russian Su-57 fighter jet flying over northern Ukraine surfaced on the internet. However, the claims remained unverified back as there was no official confirmation from Moscow. World’s ‘Fastest...

eurasiantimes.com

This could be seen either as a sign of confidence (that they believe that the Ukrainian air defences are nothing to be feared) or as an act of desperation (since the Su-57 isn't yet fully operational).

 

[Yew]

This could be seen either as a sign of confidence (that they believe that the Ukrainian air defences are nothing to be feared) or as an act of desperation (since the Su-57 isn't yet fully operational).

If I were Russia, I wouldn't be putting my top-tier stealth aeroplanes anywhere near a NATO radar system. Either a) the stealth isn't enough, and your opponent will know it, or b) your plane works, and your opponent will do everything it can to develop new systems to counter it.

 

[TheEdge]

If I were Russia, I wouldn't be putting my top-tier stealth aeroplanes anywhere near a NATO radar system. Either a) the stealth isn't enough, and your opponent will know it, or b) your plane works, and your opponent will do everything it can to develop new systems to counter it.

If they have been used I'm sure NATO will already have made sure to get a good capture of any radar return they see. Not that they'll share that with the world.

 

[birchesgreen]

This is an interesting video, Russian special forces in urban combat training and commentary by a US Marine well versed in such things saying how terrible their tactics and execution are, which may explain a lot.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

With regards to the matter of Russia needing to cross the Lithuania rail system to access its Kalingrad Oblast, to circumvent imposed sanctions in force, they will completely ignore the fact that they are preventing Ukrainian grain from being exported to the sub-Saharan African countries.

 

[najaB]

With regards to the matter of Russia needing to cross the Lithuania rail system to access its Kalingrad Oblast, to circumvent imposed sanctions in force, they will completely ignore the fact that they are preventing Ukrainian grain from being exported to the sub-Saharan African countries.

The impact of any rail blockade on grain shipments isn't anywhere as big as the impact of Russia blocking access to the Black Sea given than most (something like 95%) of exports are made by sea.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The impact of any rail blockade on grain shipments isn't anywhere as big as the impact of Russia blocking access to the Black Sea given than most (something like 95%) of exports are made by sea.

I think you missed the point I sought to make, which was that essential imports(I made no mention of grain being one of these) into Russian Kalingrad are threatened by the EC sanctions in force and have already brought forth "veiled Russian threats against the Lithuanian people"

 

[gingerheid]

I think you missed the point I sought to make, which was that essential imports(I made no mention of grain being one of these) into Russian Kalingrad are threatened by the EC sanctions in force and have already brought forth "veiled Russian threats against the Lithuanian people"

Of course it's always important to remember when dealing with Russia that it's not likely to be something you did, because actually they always do what they want regardless of anything and then see if they can try to blame you for it. They were already offering fairly unveiled threats to Lithuania beforehand:

Russia’s Duma mulls revoking recognition of Lithuanian independence

A draft bill submitted to the Russian State Duma calls for repealing the resolution of the Soviet Union State Council “O...

www.lrt.lt

 

[nw1]

Fasinating to see on the news former McDonalds have relaunched with a new Russian identity,

Just trying to visualise that... "McPutin's" - logo being a large face of Putin starting at you, and before you get served your burger you have to recite a speech saying how wonderful Putin is and how Ukraine is part of Russia. If you do not, you are marched off...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Jun 2022 ==

China edging themselves away from neutral, agreeing further economic cooperation with Russia to combat western sanctions. It will be interesting to see how that develops because I'm sure China are clever enough not to do anything to compromise their own economic position.

Not good.... Hope they don't do something that silly.

 

[birchesgreen]

Just trying to visualise that... "McPutin's" - logo being a large face of Putin starting at you, and before you get served your burger you have to recite a speech saying how wonderful Putin is and how Ukraine is part of Russia. If you do not, you are marched off...

Happy Meal gift is an AK74 and a ticket to the front line.

 

[Pete_uk]

One of the security people who used to have charge of Vlad's nuclear briefcase had been found at home, shot dead.

 

[daodao]

One thing that the EU could do to reduce its need for Russian gas is to require Norway to send all its gas exports to EU/EEA states only, as a condition of it remaining a member of the European Economic Area.

 

[Cloud Strife]

One thing that the EU could do to reduce its need for Russian gas is to require Norway to send all its gas exports to EU/EEA states only, as a condition of it remaining a member of the European Economic Area.

Norway would simply leave the EEA, which would hurt the EU more than it would hurt Norway. Norway is already exporting as much as they can to the EU, and there is a significant problem in that Poland has built the Baltic Pipe without a corresponding agreement with Norway to send gas through it.

Baltic Pipe won't increase Norway's gas exports in maxed out system, PM says

Norway's gas pipelines to Europe are operating at full capacity, and the addition of a new pipe to Poland later this year will not automatically lead to an increase in exports, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Norway's gas pipelines to Europe are operating at full capacity, and the addition of a new pipe to Poland later this year will not automatically lead to an increase in exports, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said on Wednesday.

 

[Class 33]

How much longer is this going to drag on for?? About a couple of months or so ago the media were reporting that "War could be over in two or three weeks" and "War could end on 8th May". That didn't happen! Then about a month ago they were reporting that "War could be over by the end of the year". Then just a few weeks later they're now reporting "War could drag on for YEARS"!!! What next will they be reporting, "War could now drag on for DECADES"???!!! And then today they're reporting that "London could be first city hit in new world war, says Putin ally". God, this is just dreadful. This disgusting barbaric war needs to hurry up and end.

 

[dakta]

From the viewpoints of civilians involved it does need to hurry up and end but I wouldn't have put any faith in war length estimations from the media at any rate. From a more military perspective I'm not that gutted its dragging on.

That said I think everyone sort of assumed this would be over quick because the one thing literally every nation, both observing and involved got wrong was how poor Russia would perform.

Sometimes tragedy can bring the opportunity to smile, this morning I woke to news of the Goat of Kyiv, where a wandering goat appears to have triggered a Russian tripwire whilst the russians were still within the blast radius. I beleive the Goat should get a (posthumous?) recognition for its contribution.

Ukrainian GOAT injures Russians after setting off their own tripwire

Ukraine's Chief Intelligence Directorate said the Kremlin forces were hospitalised after they boobytrapped themselves in the village of Kinski Rozdory in Zaporizhzhia.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Apologies in advance that it's the DM. You want to believe though

 

[najaB]

How much longer is this going to drag on for?? About a couple of months or so ago the media were reporting that "War could be over in two or three weeks" and "War could end on 8th May". That didn't happen! Then about a month ago they were reporting that "War could be over by the end of the year". Then just a few weeks later they're now reporting "War could drag on for YEARS"!!! What next will they be reporting, "War could now drag on for DECADES"???!!! And then today they're reporting that "London could be first city hit in new world war, says Putin ally". God, this is just dreadful. This disgusting barbaric war needs to hurry up and end.

The "days to weeks" estimates were based on an assumption that Russia's army was in fact as strong as it appeared to be on paper. If that was the case, then Ukraine would have been able to hold out for a few weeks at most, before eventually either capitulating completely or suing for peace.

It has turned out that Russia's military has a *lot* of rot, meaning that their actual strength has been just about equal to Ukraine. When two more-or-less equal armies go to war it's a recipe for a stalemate - there will be tactical victories on either side, but the strategic picture will largely remain unchanged for months at a time. And that's exactly what we've been played out in Ukraine so far, despite 100+ days of war, Russia has basically made no real significant gains. So, until or unless something significant changes on either side we are going to see a long war of attrition. Which is likely to drag on for a number of years but is unlikely to last for decades.

 

[Chingy]

Of course, Russia could always go all out as some of Putin's allies so desire;

London will be first to be bombed in World War Three, says Putin ally

Andrey Gurulyov, a State Duma politician who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, made the threat to Britain on the state-run Rossiya 1 channel.

www.dailymail.co.uk

London will be first to be bombed in World War Three, says Russian TV propagandist as he rails against West and claims 'it's clear the threat to the world comes from the Anglo-Saxons'​

(I know the source isn't the greatest, but the content is taken from Russian, pro Kremlin media).

What and where Russia go after they've taken the Donbas is a big question. In recent days they've started becoming aggressive to both Lithuania for their freight ban to Kaliningrad and also violating both Estonian airspace and Danish territorial waters. Some in Russia seem to crave a Russia/NATO war, although based on what we've seen in Ukraine so far, leaving aside Nuclear arsenal's, that probably isn't as frightening to NATO as what it was 100 days ago now, hence the increasingly counter aggressive weaponry being sent to Ukraine by the west.

 

[DustyBin]

Of course, Russia could always go all out as some of Putin's allies so desire;

London will be first to be bombed in World War Three, says Putin ally

Andrey Gurulyov, a State Duma politician who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, made the threat to Britain on the state-run Rossiya 1 channel.

www.dailymail.co.uk

(I know the source isn't the greatest, but the content is taken from Russian, pro Kremlin media).

What and where Russia go after they've taken the Donbas is a big question. In recent days they've started becoming aggressive to both Lithuania for their freight ban to Kaliningrad and also violating both Estonian airspace and Danish territorial waters. Some in Russia seem to crave a Russia/NATO war, although based on what we've seen in Ukraine so far, leaving aside Nuclear arsenal's, that probably isn't as frightening to NATO as what it was 100 days ago now, hence the increasingly counter aggressive weaponry being sent to Ukraine by the west.

They like to wheel these idiots out occasionally. It would actually be amusing if the subject matter wasn’t so serious.

If London were to be bombed first we can safely say that Moscow would be second, followed by every other major Russian city. They know this which is why it’s nonsense (aka Russian propaganda).

 

[birchesgreen]

No i think Birmingham would be next causing a few million pounds worth of improvements.

 

[gabrielhj07]

No i think Birmingham would be next causing a few million pounds worth of improvements.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Will the Ukrainian forces that have been ordered to give up their positions in the stated area of Eastern Ukraine be able to do so, as recent reports suggested encirclement?

 

[najaB]

Will the Ukrainian forces that have been ordered to give up their positions in the stated area of Eastern Ukraine be able to do so, as recent reports suggested encirclement?

As recently as last night (I know things can change) the Russians were nowhere near encircling the Ukrainian troops. I haven't seen a new video yet today, but I'd be very surprised if they'd managed to cut Lysychansk off.

 

[Trackman]

They like to wheel these idiots out occasionally. It would actually be amusing if the subject matter wasn’t so serious.

If London were to be bombed first we can safely say that Moscow would be second, followed by every other major Russian city. They know this which is why it’s nonsense (aka Russian propaganda).

If anything it would be an all out attack including subs, he's talking out of his backside.

On a side note I was watching something on US TV the other week as 60% (or near that) of US citizens think the Ukraine crisis will lead to nuclear war. From what I gather the US defence departments seem to know if something is going to happen through intelligence and there is no change regarding the Russian nuclear arsenal - like when Putin said the nuclear deterrent were going on 'high alert'. I'm not saying they are just saying this not to alarm anybody, but I really do think the US really do have the capabilities to know when something is up.

 

[Cloud Strife]

but I really do think the US really do have the capabilities to know when something is up.

They do, and it was made clear by other people within the Russian administration that there was no move towards nuclear weapons being used. I suspect that Putin may well have ordered something, only to be told 'no'. In general though, Russia understands fine well that any move towards using nuclear weapons would be met with hostility by China and others.

If London were to be bombed first we can safely say that Moscow would be second, followed by every other major Russian city. They know this which is why it’s nonsense (aka Russian propaganda).

If London gets bombed, Russia gets flattened. It's not even a matter of discussion, but simple fact. However, this sort of rhetoric from Russia is very, vey much intended for domestic consumption. That's why the USA, UK and France don't even bother responding, because they know what it is and what it's for.

How much longer is this going to drag on for?? About a couple of months or so ago the media were reporting that "War could be over in two or three weeks" and "War could end on 8th May". That didn't happen! Then about a month ago they were reporting that "War could be over by the end of the year". Then just a few weeks later they're now reporting "War could drag on for YEARS"!!! What next will they be reporting, "War could now drag on for DECADES"???!!! And then today they're reporting that "London could be first city hit in new world war, says Putin ally". God, this is just dreadful. This disgusting barbaric war needs to hurry up and end.

It will end when Russia wants it to end, or when we provide Ukraine with the means to obliterate Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory.

 

[gabrielhj07]

I suspect that Putin may well have ordered something, only to be told 'no'.

That's a brave man!

 

[Cloud Strife]

That's a brave man!

Well, probably not an individual! Putin is only as powerful as he's allowed to be, and the Russian nuclear arsenal is under the control of the Russian military. It was quite notable that after he started ranting about nuclear weapons, others started pointing out that the Russian doctrine was to only use them if the Russian Federation was threatened.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

They like to wheel these idiots out occasionally. It would actually be amusing if the subject matter wasn’t so serious.

If London were to be bombed first we can safely say that Moscow would be second, followed by every other major Russian city. They know this which is why it’s nonsense (aka Russian propaganda).

They've played that record so much the needle has gone right through.

 

[Trackman]

That's a brave man!

I wouldn't be having tea or biscuits afterwards .. / slight pun on the US nuclear biscuit .. which Jimmy Carter left in his jacket for the dry cleaners!

They've played that record so much the needle has gone right through.

About right

 

[gabrielhj07]

I wouldn't be having tea or biscuits afterwards .. / slight pun on the US nuclear biscuit .. which Jimmy Carter left in his jacket for the dry cleaners!

Not sure there'd be many biscuits at any rate. Possibly tea though!