Direction of rail travel

[ShaunRigby]

Hello friends.

What issues/problems do you think will exist on the railway in the medium-long term (5-10 years)?
Do you think the railway will ever return to pre-pandemic pax levels?
What technology do you think will be/would like to see introduced that will benefit pax?

As a current worker in the industry, working on a regional metro-style network, I think simpler ticket pricing/options/purchasing methods would definitely be a +ve, and maybe with the introduction of GBR, maybe a reduction in fares? However, with smart card technology, this would have an effect on the "purpose" of a retailer/assistant and thus turn many staffed stations into unstaffed ones, which, could turn that station into a target for ASB/loitering/vandalism.

Interested to hear your views.

 

[HSTEd]

Construction and maintenance construction costs continue to rise faster than inflation and indeed economic growth.

This means that construction of new infrastructure and reconstruction of existing infrastructure will become ever more expensive and may eventually strangle off the ability to build new infrastructure or even maintain service levels over existing infrastructure.

In addition the British economy is in a labour-tight state that is likely to endure in the long term, which means that staffing costs can be expected to grow rapidly. The railway is likely poorly placed to deploy technology to reduce staffing levels and this could become a serious economic issue going forwards.

 

[ShaunRigby]

Construction and maintenance construction costs continue to rise faster than inflation and indeed economic growth.

This means that construction of new infrastructure and reconstruction of existing infrastructure will become ever more expensive and may eventually strangle off the ability to build new infrastructure or even maintain service levels over existing infrastructure.

In addition the British economy is in a labour-tight state that is likely to endure in the long term, which means that staffing costs can be expected to grow rapidly. The railway is likely poorly placed to deploy technology to reduce staffing levels and this could become a serious economic issue going forwards.

Very interesting.

On that basis, do you think HS2 would ever be "complete" (albeit in a very watered-down form compared to its original plan) or just be a political pawn piece come the next general election?

 

[HSTEd]

On that basis, do you think HS2 would ever be "complete" (albeit in a very watered-down form compared to its original plan) or just be a political pawn piece come the next general election?

I honestly don't know. It might get built, or it might get proposed a few more times to be used as a poison pill before general elections.

[Governments that know they are about to lose proposing extensions designed to be as popular as possible so that the succeeding government gets in trouble for cancelling them]

 

[bib]

5-10 years, I'm pretty sure that as per the Iron Law of Megaprojects HS2 will be over budget and late, although I'd hope by 2032 that at least phase 1 will be getting near opening. Shouldn't be as bad as crossrail as it's less complex, although maybe Euston will be very late.
I don't think commuting traffic will fully recover, though it might get quite close at certain days/times, eg Wednesdays. I think overall numbers might be higher than 2019, especially if GBR can do something sensible with ticketing and get an integrated app set up and marketed. Although that probably depends on the state of the economy in general and what happens to the overall numbers of trains running. Any changes to taxes such as road charging and increased parking charges would also have an impact. Given that something like 65% of train journeys start or finish in London then if the population of London goes up by another million or so that might drive up rail journey numbers by itself.

Agree that costs are likely to become a serious issue, and may mean that it's not possible to justify network enhancements, especially if electric vehicles mean that rail is no longer seen as a 'cleaner' alternative. Although I'm cautiously optimistic that electrification costs will drop with the new approach to electrical clearances at bridges etc.

Can't see too much changing in terms of rolling stock, probably a lot more B(E)MUs and HMUs on regional lines. Though I reckon sticking a couchette/reclining sleeper car on anything long distance would be a good shout, much preferable to dozing and falling onto the stranger next to you.

Would be interesting to trial free travel for children and 'family' class carriages and see if it attracted many passengers. Weekend/ 3/4 day return ticket might also attract some.

 

[ShaunRigby]

5-10 years, I'm pretty sure that as per the Iron Law of Megaprojects HS2 will be over budget and late, although I'd hope by 2032 that at least phase 1 will be getting near opening. Shouldn't be as bad as crossrail as it's less complex, although maybe Euston will be very late.
I don't think commuting traffic will fully recover, though it might get quite close at certain days/times, eg Wednesdays. I think overall numbers might be higher than 2019, especially if GBR can do something sensible with ticketing and get an integrated app set up and marketed. Although that probably depends on the state of the economy in general and what happens to the overall numbers of trains running. Any changes to taxes such as road charging and increased parking charges would also have an impact. Given that something like 65% of train journeys start or finish in London then if the population of London goes up by another million or so that might drive up rail journey numbers by itself.

Agree that costs are likely to become a serious issue, and may mean that it's not possible to justify network enhancements, especially if electric vehicles mean that rail is no longer seen as a 'cleaner' alternative. Although I'm cautiously optimistic that electrification costs will drop with the new approach to electrical clearances at bridges etc.

Can't see too much changing in terms of rolling stock, probably a lot more B(E)MUs and HMUs on regional lines. Though I reckon sticking a couchette/reclining sleeper car on anything long distance would be a good shout, much preferable to dozing and falling onto the stranger next to you.

Would be interesting to trial free travel for children and 'family' class carriages and see if it attracted many passengers. Weekend/ 3/4 day return ticket might also attract some.

I am under the belief that with Megaprojects, and probably much like anything else with a stage of procurement and implementation, its much easier to seek forgiveness than permission.

One lesson the pandemic has taught us is how to use online platforms to conduct meetings, and it was this quick introduction which has made business leaders realise why spend x amount commuting to another city when I can do it either from my home, my office or a Starbucks - hot desking, I believe, is very much here to stay, at least for the medium term.

Great idea about the family class ticket; given that most journeys that are non-London orientated are for pleasure, surely the challenge is how do you put "entertainment" on board a long journey without giving up capacity?