When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[jfollows]

I just get the feeling, having just watched Sajid Javid, that he and his other ministerial colleagues are spouting the line today that is just as true as David Cameron's promise to stay and implement whatever result of the referendum in 2016 decided - in other words they're lying (about how wonderful Johnson is, an asset to the party, will win us the next election, and so on) but everyone knows they're lying, and knows that they're only saying what they're saying because they don't have any choice.

But who are they fooling? The other MPs know this too.

It's all a rather predictable pantomime.

 

[Gloster]

It is a fine line. The ministers must appear to continue supporting Johnson, as otherwise they will be accused of disloyalty (*), but must judge when the moment has come to jump ship to avoid being dragged down with a sinking leader. If they time it right they have positioned themselves for their leadership bid, but if they get it wrong they have hamstrung themselves.

* - Something still seen as a disadvantage in the Conservative Party, even though it appears to be endemic.

 

[Howardh]

It is a fine line. The ministers must appear to continue supporting Johnson, as otherwise they will be accused of disloyalty (*), but must judge when the moment has come to jump ship to avoid being dragged down with a sinking leader. If they time it right they have positioned themselves for their leadership bid, but if they get it wrong they have hamstrung themselves.

* - Something still seen as a disadvantage in the Conservative Party, even though it appears to be endemic.

Oh, for every minister "supporting" Johnson you cans ee them sharpening their knives behind their backs.

What would be really fascinating is if every cabinet minister supported Johnson publically, yet 100% of the vote was against him tonight, suddenly it's not so "secret" any more and they would all be seen as lying hypocrites!

 

[nw1]

There too sycophantic to do the honourable thing.

Certainly true with the "Boris fan club", aka Patel, Raab and Dorries. Not sure about Sunak and Truss, given their ambition. Not sure about Javid either given he's had run-ins with Johnson in the past. And as for the rest of the cabinet - no idea - aside from the above-named individuals, the rest are quite extraordinarily anonymous these days.

 

[Shrop]

There is generally all round agreement that behind closed doors today, that there will be a great deal of bribery (promises of knighthoods and better jobs) and bullying (if you don't vote for me then your position will be difficult) etc. In other professions, these types of behaviour are frowned on, indeed would be subject to investigations etc. So how are these things acceptable in the place which the public elects in the expectation and hope of being a shining example to us all?

 

[nw1]

He is going to bring back pre-deciminalised old money isn't he?

Yes indeed, the new UK base unit of currency will be the Boris, subdivided into groats. 13 and twelve-nineteenths groats will equal one Boris.

 

[Bayum]

Part of me wonders whether some letters have been forced in over the last few days to force a vote now rather than after the upcoming by-elections.

 

[DanNCL]

Jeremy Hunt has announced on Twitter that he’ll be voting against Boris in tonight’s vote. Most significant name yet?

https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1533748389891940352?s=21&t=lZ9oUO0zD6uCP2qg-bF6aw

Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change

 

[dosxuk]

Not really, he's never been a Boris supporter, hence most people don't even remember he's a sitting MP after his ejection from the cabinet on the arrival of Boris.

He'll definitely be hoping nobody remembers those times he upset the whole NHS and the whole of the education system if he's about to start another leadership bid.

 

[birchesgreen]

Hopefully ~55% of MPs still vote for Johnson this evening, that would be the most damaging outcome.

52-48%

 

[Failed Unit]

Jeremy Hunt has announced on Twitter that he’ll be voting against Boris in tonight’s vote. Most significant name yet?

https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1533748389891940352?s=21&t=lZ9oUO0zD6uCP2qg-bF6aw

Poor members of the press - having to deal with miss pronouncing Hunt's name frequently

 

[jfollows]

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the minister without a real job, is doing his usual sucking up: if Boris wins by one vote that's enough, whereas when Theresa May won the support of 63% of Conservative MPs he said then that it wasn't enough and she should resign. He makes out that he's somehow clever but he just spout drivel all the time. Boris needs to stay to "deliver Brexit"; funny that, I could have sworn that this had happened, or is he now agreeing that it's still a total mess which will take many more years to sort out?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jun 2022 ==

There was also an interesting interview with a lady from The Telegraph (on BBC News) who said, essentially, that once you discounted the usual suspects of people who have never cared for Johnson, there were significant numbers of normal, sensible Tory supporters writing to say that he had to go, not because of the "party thing" directly but that, in part because of it, he's completely distracted and rudderless with no policy direction. A bit like Dominic Cummings' shopping trolley I guess.

 

[Busaholic]

Part of me wonders whether some letters have been forced in over the last few days to force a vote now rather than after the upcoming by-elections.

Part of me wonders whether the 54 letter threshold wasn't met some days ago and Brady deliberately chose the moment to release the 'news.' Opacity is all in the Conservative Party. Personally, I don't believe anyone had to be leant on to write, there were already enough MPs who could see their futures lying outside the House of Commons! Incidentally, do we know that this is a 'secret' ballot? I'd wager that every ballot paper is numbered and that number is attached to the individual MP. It wouldn't surprise me if Theresa May decides not to take part.

 

[birchesgreen]

Brady said he waited till after the jubilee to make the announcement, he told The Johnson privately last night.

 

[Busaholic]

Brady said he waited till after the jubilee to make the announcement, he told The Johnson privately last night.

Yes, I saw that, the question I have, which I don't expect to be answered, is at what point the threshold was reached i.e. exactly when last week, or maybe even earlier?

 

[TBY-Paul]

Brady said he waited till after the jubilee to make the announcement, he told The Johnson privately last night.

The way I understand it, the 54 letters threshold was reached before Thursday, but it was decided not to make an announcement till after the Jubilee celebration. Hence Boris being informed last night, with the formal announcement this morning.

I would imagine a few MP’s vote today will be influenced by the boo’ing Boris received outside St Paul’s. The result tonight should be interesting.

 

[brad465]

Something tells me Nadine Dorries didn't get the memo (or took it too far) with this attack on Jeremy Hunt:

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now

 

[DelayRepay]

When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson​

There's been a long, slow build up to this moment, but I think when it really went wrong for Johnson was when he was booed attending a Jubilee event at St Pauls. We don't know the timing of Brady's letters but it would not surprise me at all if that was the straw that broke the camel's back, so to speak.

However I do not think it's gone wrong for the Tories at this point. Whatever happens tonight, Johnson's days are numbered and if they go into the next election with a new leader, some positive policies and with the baggage of Partygate consigned to history, I think they stand a reasonable chance of winning a majority.

In summary: We need a new thread title!

 

[jfollows]

Ladbrokes offering odds: I have added the implied percentage probability of each outcome in bold (they don't have to add up to 100, indeed the fact that they don't is about the bookmaker making money).

The number of votes against Boris Johnson tonight is most likely to fall within the 100 to 149 bracket, according to the odds offered by Ladbrokes. This is what they are offering.

0-49 - 66/1 1.5%

50-99 - 3/1 25%

100-149 - 15/8 35%

150-199 - 2/1 33%

200-249 - 5/1 17%

250-299 - 16/1 6%

300+ - 100/1 1%

I think anything over 100 against is very bad for him, even if he clings on everyone knows that >100 of his MPs want to get rid of him.

 

[Howardh]

15% of 100% have submitted letters; assuming those 15% vote against him, of the remaining 85% he needs something like 57% of them to vote for him. Someone will correct my maths...!!

 

[jfollows]

15% of 100% have submitted letters; assuming those 15% vote against him, of the remaining 85% he needs something like 57% of them to vote for him. Someone will correct my maths...!!

50/85 is 59% I think, he needs 50%+1 vote technically I guess.

 

[telstarbox]

Some of the letter writers could be his supporters to force the contest now (before the by elections) - he's more likely to win now than later and if he wins he's theoretically safe for a year.

 

[dosxuk]

The way I understand it, the 54 letters threshold was reached before Thursday, but it was decided not to make an announcement till after the Jubilee celebration. Hence Boris being informed last night, with the formal announcement this morning

He was saying this morning that a number of letters were dated for today - deliberately to avoid the jubilee weekend - so while they may have received the letters end of last week, it wasn't until today they could be acted upon.

Some of the letter writers could be his supporters to force the contest now (before the by elections) - he's more likely to win now than later and if he wins he's theoretically safe for a year.

There's already a lot of mutterings about changing the rules if needed. Deliberately calling a VONC when it's not needed would be a foolish thing to do for his supporters.

 

[Howardh]

50/85 is 59% I think, he needs 50%+1 vote technically I guess.

Mmm, I suppose a tie is possible, then what? Penalties??!

 

[Gloster]

The BBC is suggesting that Dorries tweets have so incensed a number of wavering Tory MPs that they are leaning towards the anti-Johnson camp. But what else does expect from the worst of a poor lot?

I can’t see Johnson going unless he has to: if he wins by just one vote that will be enough for him to justify (to himself) staying on. He doesn’t have any trustworthy, reliable sounding board to give him dispassionate advice, in the way that Thatcher had Denis.

 

[jfollows]

John Stevens from the Daily Mail said on the World at One that Theresa May had received endorsements from more than 50% of her MP electorate by then (1pm) on the day of her no-confidence vote, whereas at a similar time today he calculates that Boris has only received 90 public endorsements, or about 25% of the voting MPs.

Chris Mason from the BBC reports that Nadine Dorries has possibly incensed some MPs into voting against Johnson because they think that what she's been tweeting has been spoon-fed to her by him. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened, but then I'm not sure she's capable of forming and elucidating her own opinion unless it's about something completely bonkers.

 

[Typhoon]

15% of 100% have submitted letters; assuming those 15% vote against him, of the remaining 85% he needs something like 57% of them to vote for him. Someone will correct my maths...!!

50/85 is 59% I think, he needs 50%+1 vote technically I guess.

If everyone votes - you get a Big Red Tick. Every abstention reduces the number of votes he requires. As an example, assuming only the 54 vote against him, then Johnson only needs 55 votes. Incidentally, does he get a vote?

Some of the letter writers could be his supporters to force the contest now (before the by elections) - he's more likely to win now than later and if he wins he's theoretically safe for a year.

Good point.

There's already a lot of mutterings about changing the rules if needed. Deliberately calling a VONC when it's not needed would be a foolish thing to do for his supporters.

Given the track record of some of them, very much a possibility then!

 

[Failed Unit]

Mmm, I suppose a tie is possible, then what? Penalties??!

Rugby against school children

 

[jfollows]

If everyone votes - you get a Big Red Tick. Every abstention reduces the number of votes he requires. As an example, assuming only the 54 vote against him, then Johnson only needs 55 votes. Incidentally, does he get a vote?

Totally agree re: abstentions. Can't answer your question about whether or not he can vote for himself, though.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The way I understand it, the 54 letters threshold was reached before Thursday, but it was decided not to make an announcement till after the Jubilee celebration.

Of course, if the decision was reached and made public during the Jubilee celebrations, all and sundry would have leapt on the political bandwagon saying it is typical of this Government attempting to spoil matters for Her Majesty by such a thoughtless action.