Comment piece in Passenger Transport - "The railway risks becoming irrelevant"

[brad465]

If the railways declined as a form of passenger transport (which I hope not and don't see anytime soon), then in many places there should be plenty of freight potential, especially if that means getting more lorries off the roads to the benefit of the environment, other road users, and as an at least partial solution to haulier staff shortages.

Besides, given how far into HS2 construction we are, while a partial backtracking has taken place on its scale, the extent to committing to the project so far doesn't give an impression of a declining railway overall, and I suspect it would be political suicide to axe the project beyond a certain point of no return (which we may well already have passed).

 

[Craig1122]

But discretionary travellers cost more to attract (in service improvements, advertising, and timetable tweaks) and pay less. It is a very, very difficult struggle.

Not always the case that discretionary travellers pay less. You'll find plenty of journeys in the South East where the daily rate for an annual is lower than a cheap day fare. Of course the issue is that they're not giving you a few thousand in advance to travel every day!

 

[Peter Sarf]

There's a lot of truth in that article in terms of the attitude of the industry, but in truth much of that is because of micro management from the Dft.

However passenger numbers are back at 80% and rising. That's still way more people than when I joined the railway 20 odd years ago and no one was talking about decimating the network then. So I reckon there's a danger of over dramatising the risks.

I also wonder how many other industries are feeling the post Covid blues ?. For example High Street retail has seen an acceleration of the drift to online sales. Does the article really just sum up how the country feels post Covid and during a crisis in Ukraine ?.

 

[AlterEgo]

Not always the case that discretionary travellers pay less. You'll find plenty of journeys in the South East where the daily rate for an annual is lower than a cheap day fare.

How many cheap day fares will you have to sell to someone to make up for not getting £4000 a year off another traveller?

 

[whoosh]

Came across this article via Twitter which I thought was quite interesting:

The railway risks becoming irrelevant

www.passengertransport.co.uk

Not sure I agree with all their conclusions but I do think they have a point in general about the railways possible slide into irrelevance or at least being less relevant. See the huge cuts to ScotRail, including decimation of late night services and the lack of much reaction at all for a recent example. I also thought the author made a very good point about the passenger experience and how, the majority of the time, it doesn't match the advertising and how increasingly that's just seen to be the way it is. Where's the drive to win business (or retain it!) by providing a good experience that matches what the advertising claims?

There are some own goals quite often, such as slow or no information or communication about the cause of a delay - this doesn't just irritate passengers either by the way; "due to no traincrew available," when the traincrew are there on the platform and it's the first they've heard of the cancellation, is still happening on the network and irritating the staff!
Own goal on two fronts!
Uncomfortable seats are quite often a DfT specification, but it does let the industry down. "I'll go in my comfortable car then," is a perfectly reasonable reaction.

It's not just railways that are rubbish though. Railways have always suffered from short staffing, engineering work, delays, cancellations...
Now try phoning your bank: "We are currently experiencing a high number of calls and your estimated wait time is <unreasonable> minutes." EVERY time you call, whatever day or time.
Try getting a Doctors appointment. A face to face one. With a Doctor, not a Nurse Practitioner who will refer you to a Doctor (you'll need to make another appointment!), or have to get the Doctor to sign your prescription anyway.

Customer service everywhere has gone downhill, prices uphill, and staffing levels short.
There's other places apart from the railway giving poor service now in these regards, so yes, in a way, the railway is less relevant.

Which brings me to...
Getting a bus!

I totally disagree with the statement, "The bus sector feels better positioned than rail."
In many areas there are problems. Low wages, coupled with low ridership, means not much wriggle-room to raise those wages. "I'm off to drive a lorry then," say many bus drivers who have a licence for lorries as well, and end up with less unsociable hours, and less hassle than a bus full of people moaning about the last bus not turning up, or teenagers smoking whatever they like on the back seat of the top deck, and the erosion of morale that all that brings.

Throughout the pandemic, the railways were recruiting and, where able and complying with the rules, training staff on a scale much greater than the bus industry.

In some areas the buses are reliable still, but in many they are floundering.

People still want a job on the railways. The bus industry still desperately wants people.

I do think a lot of people are overreacting here to be honest. While I don't think the current situation is great, I don't think in the long term its anywhere near as bad as people are making out.

I agree. The trains are getting busier every day. And as someone else has pointed out, if the number of people using the trains is about 80% of pre-Covid, then it's the same number as only a few years earlier - which certainly isn't an irrelevant number.

There are less season tickets being sold apparently, which may mean less up front regular money, and therefore may require more subsidy. Well... everywhere else in the world it seems, recognises the wider social value of railways, and pays up in subsidies. Maybe it's time the UK Government realised that.

 

[yorksrob]

and somebody else who is struggling to plan a gig in Glasgow next week because the "sustainable" timetable doesn't get you home after 2215.

That's exactly the thing. Cuts making the railway difficult/impossible to use.

It's not just the railway to be fair. There used to be a very handy night bus from Leeds to Wakefield which was well used after the train finished. Not seen since the pandemic.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 May 2022 ==

But discretionary travellers cost more to attract (in service improvements, advertising, and timetable tweaks) and pay less. It is a very, very difficult struggle.

Running the existing service well would be a good start.

I think the key point is though, that a railway with 80% of pre covid passenger use is a long way off of being "irrelevant".

 

[philosopher]

I agree. The trains are getting busier every day. And as someone else has pointed out, if the number of people using the trains is about 80% of pre-Covid, then it's the same number as only a few years earlier - which certainly isn't an irrelevant number.

There are less season tickets being sold apparently, which may mean less up front regular money, and therefore may require more subsidy. Well... everywhere else in the world it seems, recognises the wider social value of railways, and pays up in subsidies. Maybe it's time the UK Government realised that.

There is an interesting article I read a few days ago in the Guardian which essentially said the treasury in the UK had a disproportionate influence compared to other countries which may explain the lack subsidies in the UK. Essentially the treasury sees it hard to see past a short term financial goals and may explain the obsession that the UK government has that the railway must pay its own way as much as possible:

The big idea: should we abolish the Treasury?

This powerful institution is filled with brilliant people – but is it holding Britain back?

www.theguardian.com

The first problem it causes is what we might call “government by accountant”. Britain’s economic history is littered with businesses such as ICI and GEC that were taken over by bean-counters and financiers, leading to a short-term cash-focused mindset, underinvestment, decline and insolvency. The Treasury’s remit to protect Britain’s public credit and mind the purse strings breeds a similar myopia in the British state, as public investment is routinely diverted to meet short-term pressures. It helps explain why the NHS invests less in equipment and IT than any other European health system. It is why defence procurement, which inherently involves occasional, large expenditures, gets inefficiently dragged out over years to create smooth spending profiles. It is why the national tutoring programme was whittled down by 90% to the point of ineffectiveness. The story is still told of how in the 1980s, Treasury officials argued that the new M25 only needed to be two lanes wide.

 

[A0]

That's exactly the thing. Cuts making the railway difficult/impossible to use.

Cuts in that case which are being made by a state-run service due to Industrial Relations problems. The union are trying to hold the Scot Gov to ransom - frankly from my point of view a battle between the RMT and SNP led Scot Gov is a battle between a nettle and a wasp - somebody will get stung and I don't really mind who - ideally it will hurt both of them.

 

[island]

Try getting a Doctors appointment. A face to face one. With a Doctor, not a Nurse Practitioner who will refer you to a Doctor (you'll need to make another appointment!), or have to get the Doctor to sign your prescription anyway.

My GP's app tells me there are several available a week today, should I want one.

 

[yorksrob]

- frankly from my point of view a battle between the RMT and SNP led Scot Gov is a battle between a nettle and a wasp - somebody will get stung and I don't really mind who - ideally it will hurt both of them.

I like the analogy

I understand that some late services from London were cut, which would have the same effect.

 

[mrcheek]

It is worth pointing out that 80% of 2019 revenue is quite a lot more than 100% of 1998 revenue, say. There has been a lot of growth since then.

This is a very good point. Similarly, with the growth in services of recent years, 80% of services in 2019 would be more than 100% of services in 1998

 

[Bikeman78]

The risk won't come from lockdowns or restrictions, but the government deciding it's had enough of an industry that is unable to substantively reduce costs to match its income. 80% of pre-Covid revenue is no good if costs are 105%.

I wonder how our costs compare with Germany/Belgium/The Netherlands? There doesn't appear to be talk of cuts over there. If our costs are so much higher, why is this?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 May 2022 ==

Customer service everywhere has gone downhill, prices uphill, and staffing levels short.
There's other places apart from the railway giving poor service now in these regards, so yes, in a way, the railway is less relevant.

So many industries seem to be short of staff. Where has everyone gone?

I totally disagree with the statement, "The bus sector feels better positioned than rail."
In many areas there are problems. Low wages, coupled with low ridership, means not much wriggle-room to raise those wages. "I'm off to drive a lorry then," say many bus drivers who have a licence for lorries as well, and end up with less unsociable hours, and less hassle than a bus full of people moaning about the last bus not turning up, or teenagers smoking whatever they like on the back seat of the top deck, and the erosion of morale that all that brings.

Cardiff Bus is definitely struggling. Lots of cancelled services in the evening. I've not seen anything like it in 20 years.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How many cheap day fares will you have to sell to someone to make up for not getting £4000 a year off another traveller?

To be fair £4000 a year sounds a lot but it is typically just 5 off peak returns per week on most routes. If you can sell those off peak returns to different people you've still sold them. It's not as solid and predictable revenue as a season, but it's the same sum.

 

[gazzaa2]

Why are trains so busy then?

 

[Big Jumby 74]

Get the basics right and people will come flooding back.

And there is the rub of it. Trains that turn up on time, every time, with seats for all (not always possible even with max formations I know) but you get my point, then, priority wise, working toilets, beyond that much of the rest is tantamount to coming under the fluffy stuff banner (I might have half my tongue in my cheek with that last comment ). I had the feeling, and this is years ago mind, that the industry was seeing an increased turnover of senior management, some of whom were very decent and knowledgeable people I will add, but many just didn't know what more could be done to 'make a difference' (something as individuals they had to be seen to be doing) during their time, so inevitably, there was an increase in gimmicky stuff. Personal impressions, that's all.

 

[Horizon22]

Why are trains so busy then?

To some extent they are, and to some extent they’re not. These “busy trains” are not evenly allocated. So it will be very busy on a weekend between 0930-1200 but quieter from then until 1500 or so.

Also in some areas, capacity (i.e services) have been cut. So even though you have less passengers you’ve still got 1.7 trains worth of people trying to get on 1 train, not 2 (as a crude example). That or things like what used to be a 4-car is now a 2-car or what was once a 12-car is now an 8. Weekend allocations are, despite many requests from staff on the ground, often woefully inadequate at many TOCs

 

[43066]

Given that the railway has been subsidised to a greater or lesser extent for the past 70 years, taking umbrage to a particular level of subsidy isn't really logical. Nor does it make sense in the context of climate change, the Red Wall etc. - but it would be a mistake to assume that the government always acts logically, or in its own electoral interest. See the prevarication over a windfall tax.

I think this is exactly the point that many seem to miss. The railway will always require some level of subsidy - AIUI pretty much only the intercity operators have ever turned a profit. Clearly that subsidy was greatly increased during Covid, but will now be falling back to more normal levels. The figures involved really do pale into insignificance compared to £30bn+ spent on test and trace (which didn’t even work), the astronomical furlough budget and that of the appallingly bloated, inefficient and unfit-for-purpose NHS. More focus could also be put on attacking ROSCO profiteering - that’s a significant aspect of railway costs that seems to be largely ignored on here.

I do agree with your comment that there is some risk of overreach by the railway unions, and I suppose the aggressive stance being taken (by the RMT especially) is something of a calculated risk. My personal view (and hope!) is that wholesale war is unlikely because this government fundamentally wants to try and please all of the people all of the time.

 

[43066]

Trains that turn up on time, every time, with seats for all (not always possible even with max formations I know) but you get my point, then, priority wise, working toilets, beyond that much of the rest is tantamount to coming under the fluffy stuff banner (I might have half my tongue in my cheek with that last comment ).

After two years of trains *actually* turning up on time with seats for everyone, perhaps some unrealistic expectations have crept in over the last couple of years! Unfortunately overcrowding is now once again a regular occurrence, as are the inevitable delays that come along with many more passengers travelling on the railway.

 

[DarloRich]

The RMT has balloted across the industry. Wholesale shutdowns are on the cards if signallers go on strike. There are unresolved pay claims at nearly every TOC, with various degrees of industrial action or unrest.

and very poor morale.

The issue is I feel the RMT are playing into the hands of the government. Johnson and his crime syndicate will rub thier hands at a bit of union bashing and firing up thier base with stories about lazy, greedy railway workers paid £80k a year to push buttons.

They had to be dragged kicking and screaming into giving "NHS heroes" a tiny pay increase for goodness sake.

 

[takno]

So many industries seem to be short of staff. Where has everyone gone?

There's lots of things.

On the supply side: Quite a lot of Europeans opted to leave UK and stay in the EU when we left. The public sector is still wasting the lives of a large number of people doing various forms of Covid busybodying. A combination of furlough+second job and nothing to spend the money on has caused some people to build up a decent cash pot, and now they don't fancy the work on offer. Second earners in families have dropped out of the workforce because childcare has become even more expensive and nightmarish. Lots of people decided that they didn't fancy going back at the end of furlough and have opted for early retirement. Plenty of 18-21 year olds haven't built up the debt and the habit of going out and spending, so they don't need the jobs as badly.

On the demand side: Furlough and a lack of places to spend money has left a lot of cash sloshing around the place. That's not normally a particular issue, since it tends to slosh around in rich peoples wallets without being used for anything. It's now in the hands of people who are inclined to spend it, and have a lot of pent-up entertaining and pampering to get done. They're trying to spend it all at once, leading businesses to staff up and expand, leading to a glut in the jobs market.

Fundamentally a combination of Lockdown and Brexit has got all the money and all the people in the wrong places for the economy to run smoothly, and now we're going to have to sit through a couple of years of absolute economic chaos before inflation devalues the glut of money and everything hits equilibrium again. Unfortunately the current government are so monumentally incapable of governing or managing the economy that those couple of years could easily turn into 10.

 

[DarloRich]

Thinking on this a bit more I feel we might be at something of a tipping point. London trains are getting busier from my local station but are still not anywhere near the olden days.

The question is how many of those people will come back to commuting once the push to get people into the office builds up pace and will the loss of thier season ticket revenue be offset by selling them full priced tickets less often

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thinking on this a bit more I feel we might be at something of a tipping point. London trains are getting busier from my local station but are still not anywhere near the olden days.

The question is how many of those people will come back to commuting once the push to get people into the office builds up pace and will the loss of thier season ticket revenue be offset by selling them full priced tickets less often

And how much can be saved (in rolling stock and staff terms) if an all day timetable with the odd bit of peak lengthening can be operated instead of the hefty peak commuter timetables? Away from London timetables are mostly the same all day, e.g. Merseyrail.

 

[ar10642]

Sell it in its entirety to the private sector.

That will simply result it the vast majority of it being shut down.

 

[Bikeman78]

And there is the rub of it. Trains that turn up on time, every time, with seats for all (not always possible even with max formations I know) but you get my point, then, priority wise, working toilets, beyond that much of the rest is tantamount to coming under the fluffy stuff banner (I might have half my tongue in my cheek with that last comment ).

The problem is that the formations aren't anywhere near max. Southern is now running five car trains in the peaks. Twitter comments posted on another thread suggest they are leaving passengers behind. The situation is a farce.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not on Compass Bus. All they do is a weekly ticket which is 4 times the daily return at £8.30 for 7 miles each way, only valid for that route, for just one person.

That's definitely an exception to what the main groups do, e.g. a Stagecoach Manchester weekly is £17.50 (£3.50 per weekday). A bit more than two quid but still excellent value. Child is half fare and there are some smaller area ones (e.g. for Wigan) if you don't go into Manchester itself very often. And for a fairly large number of people entitled to ENCTS it's free.

 

[baz962]

After two years of trains *actually* turning up on time with seats for everyone, perhaps some unrealistic expectations have crept in over the last couple of years! Unfortunately overcrowding is now once again a regular occurrence, as are the inevitable delays that come along with many more passengers travelling on the railway.

And of course we rely on not just the railway doing their bit , but the passengers. I was nicely on time everywhere the other day and then a group of passengers that had got on the wrong train , decided to pull the egress at 110 mph. Now over ten late everywhere.

 

[uglymonkey]

If you shut the network down ( say for a strike, or maintainence, newts or something) for say a month. A lot of people will have found alternative arrangements ( and will have had too, when the railway was shut) and will not therefore come back to the railway, when it reopens. Same as to what happened to freight in the 1955 strike ( they all went and brought 2nd hand lorries)

The type of people who use buses against the type of people who use trains is totally different and can't really be compaired ( its like apples and oranges). At any one time, I think about 14% of the population don't have access to a private car.

 

[yorksrob]

I think that in a time of national stress, the railway could be a useful tool in getting people out and about and undertaking economic activity and improving their well-being such as leisure. It will require competitive pricing which will in turn require a change in mindset from Government.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think that in a time of national stress, the railway could be a useful tool in getting people out and about and undertaking economic activity and improving their well-being such as leisure. It will require competitive pricing which will in turn require a change in mindset from Government.

I certainly think the very high level of Anytime fares is a key part of the problem. But the Government doesn't even have the guts to cut them temporarily (other than Friday PM) and see what happens. Make every day a Saturday until September, say, and see what the summer does.

 

[A0]

I think that in a time of national stress, the railway could be a useful tool in getting people out and about and undertaking economic activity and improving their well-being such as leisure. It will require competitive pricing which will in turn require a change in mindset from Government.

I'm having deja vu with this post......

Quite why the government should subsidise people to go on a jolly with little or no economic benefit is beyond me.

If people want to go visiting places, they should be prepared to pay the going rate. If people want to "improve their mental health" then there are very few places in the UK where you can't in a couple of miles get out into some green space or countryside. That doesn't need huge sums of money being pumped into the rail network as subsidy.