Is there any hope of the service returning to something resembling pre-Covid in the medium term?
Very depressing that the story seems to be all about cuts, cuts, cuts (w.r.t 2019) - and not just to peak, but to off-peak as well. I echo concerns about a "vicious circle", if the railway is not going to be so attractive to passengers, then presumably more people will drive. I can see why they are happening (unit shortage due to the age of the 455s and 313s), but, there are from what I can make out quite a few spare EMUs around the network, can any of these run on third rail or be modified to do so? Too expensive I guess, but then if the service is unattractive they will presumably lose money in any case due to people using other modes.
It sounds like there is demand, at least, for the standard 2019 off peak timetable, judging by comments on overcrowding here - even if peak extras are limited.
The only hope is that BR went through some similar cuts-oriented timetables (1985 and 1991 spring to mind for the SR) and then in the former case things got better under BR by around 1988 or 1989, presumably due to an improving economy. Could the same happen now, maybe around 2024 or 2025 as a guesstimate to when the economy will get better.
It's most unfortunate the 455s and 313s have reached the end of their working lives in this era. Ten years ago, or ten years hence, then maybe we could just have thrown new stock at the problem. But then, the 455s themselves (along with other types of similar design) were introduced during the early-80s recession. How could they afford so much new stock then? The equivalent to the current plan would be to scrap the SUBs due to age (as actually happened), but not introduce the 455s, and just try and keep the SR suburban network going by sharing the EPBs around, nabbing some VEPs off mainline services, and keeping the 40-odd 508s down south.