When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Phil56]

Still not one word, but ''leach off the British people'' would cover it too.

If a foreign company chooses to relocate to the UK, then that brings revenue to the UK, i.e. renting premises, employing staff (often highly paid HO staff), staff paying tax/nic in the UK, staff buying goods on which there's VAT etc. Of course, that assumes the UK location is genuine, and not just a PO Box sham.

 

[adrock1976]

At some point though growth in this way is going to be impossible to achieve, ignoring the role infinite growth plays in climate change, the resources to bring it about will eventually run out, and it also requires infinite population growth (or high immigration where fertility rates are low) to keep achieving a labour force that increases in size to drive both production and consumption. Sure, technology will help somewhat, but it's not a silver bullet, and we shouldn't rely on certain technology being available in time (or at all) either. Economic growth achieved through bulldozing/concreting over more of our countryside to develop on, regardless of where in the country it is, certainly doesn't strike me as appealing.

The problem is, at some point people will have to accept that standard of life cannot improve beyond a certain point, and also shouldn't improve if we are to sustain ourselves on this planet. Furthermore, one measure of standard of life is life expectancy, and while not everyone goes through the same experience towards the end of their life, we cannot achieve constant increases in life expectancy without serious consequences. Illnesses like dementia and cancer become more prevalent with age and very expensive to treat, and often the quality of life for the individual and their immediate friends and family caring for them isn't great either.

There are going to have to be some very hard but necessary debates in future about how we are living and how a lot of what's perceived as good might not actually be as good as made out to be. The current Government certainly don't plan to, but there is no evidence that Labour, the Lib Dems or SNP will either, so I don't see this tipping point being imminent. However, slowly but surely I have seen more people come round to the realities of our unsustainable system; I only came round to it fully in 2020, where before then I was as much a growth supporter as the average person. And for the record, while capitalism certainly isn't sustainable for this reason, any other economic system that has a growth element applied to it is no good either, including Communism and Socialism, as they don't stop more resources being extracted/consumed. I would support a new system that is fit for today's world, that is only likely to come about with the aforementioned public debates.

Picking up on standard of life and life expectancy, in Scotland Margo McDonald (who was an independent MSP) did campaign on the issue of assisted dying during her later stages of life when she was diagnosed with Parkinsons Disease.

Also (I started a thread on the State Pension a few years ago), in some areas across Great Britain, the life expectancy can have big differences in relation to the retirement age and being eligible for the State Pension. At the present time, the retirement age is 67 (when Cameron was PM there were plans to increase it to 68). There was a World Health Organisation report into life expectancy across different areas of Great Britain back in 2008/09, which had the Calton area of Glasgow having the lowest life expectancy in the whole of GB being 56 years. This would mean that for a resident of the Calton who is in paid employment and pays National Insurance (which goes towards the State Pension) would not live long enough to actually see a penny of it, despite having paid NICs.

 

[ainsworth74]

At the present time, the retirement age is 67 (when Cameron was PM there were plans to increase it to 68).

Depends on your date of birth. Mine is 68 for instance. Broadly if you're born before 5 April 1970 it'll be 67 born after for those in a few years after it'll be somewhere between 67 and 68 and for those born from late 1970s onwards it'll be 68.

Personally though I think it'll increase further. I'm assuming it'll be 70 before too long for people born in the late 80s/early 90s.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There was a World Health Organisation report into life expectancy across different areas of Great Britain back in 2008/09, which had the Calton area of Glasgow having the lowest life expectancy in the whole of GB being 56 years. This would mean that for a resident of the Calton who is in paid employment and pays National Insurance (which goes towards the State Pension) would not live long enough to actually see a penny of it, despite having paid NICs.

That seemed an unbelievably low life expectancy, so I thought was worth googling. Turns out it's been largely debunked by the National Forum on Drug-Related Deaths 2008-9: https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayba.../www.gov.scot/Publications/2009/06/25153417/8, with commentary at https://www.gcph.co.uk/latest/news/555_life_expectancy_in_calton-no_longer_54

More recent estimates of life expectancy - not for Calton as previously defined, but for the combined neighbourhoods of Calton & Bridgeton – show that life expectancy for men and women has risen in recent years but has remained below the Glasgow average. In the period 2008-2012, male life expectancy at birth was estimated by GCPH to be 67.8 years, while female life expectancy was estimated at 76.6 years.

...​

As was made clear in the original publication, but which did not feature in media coverage, one factor which is likely to have contributed to the low life expectancy estimate at the time was that there were clusters of deaths in the area which were associated with the presence of particular hostels which looked after adults with a variety of problems related to drugs, alcohol, homelessness and mental health. Local circumstances, therefore, alongside the small population size, are likely to have skewed the estimate.

 

[nw1]

That seemed an unbelievably low life expectancy, so I thought was worth googling. Turns out it's been largely debunked by the National Forum on Drug-Related Deaths 2008-9: https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayba.../www.gov.scot/Publications/2009/06/25153417/8, with commentary at https://www.gcph.co.uk/latest/news/555_life_expectancy_in_calton-no_longer_54

9 years between male and female seems incredibly large. Is this based on an assumption (based on previous generations, so probably not accurate for people born between 2008-12 who will not even be adult for a while) that men will drink and/or smoke themselves to death, and women will not?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

9 years between male and female seems incredibly large. Is this based on an assumption (based on previous generations, so probably not accurate for people born between 2008-12 who will not even be adult for a while) that men will drink and/or smoke themselves to death, and women will not?

A good question. I have to admit I don't have time to look in detail at how those particular calculations were done, but as I understand it, life expectancies are usually estimated by extrapolating from the ages and causes of actual deaths within a given population each year. So my suspicion is that possibly those results are still getting skewed by the hostel accommodation in the area - which would house a lot of - mainly, men - who would be dying early from things like substance abuse.

As a side-point, non-historical life expectancy figures always need to be treated with caution because - self-evidently - you can't know for sure what life expectancies within a given group will be until after everyone in that group has died. We can do no more than guess how long people who are alive today will live for. Also, it's easy to forget that they are averages, and are usually skewed somewhat downwards by infant mortality (although much less so in industrialised countries today than was the case in the past).

 

[birchesgreen]

So a(nother) Tory MP arrested for rape (i won't say who of course but you can easily find out online). The deranged hairpiece Fabricant makes a joke about rape, Julia Hate Spewer says its fine and she's heard many rape jokes (really?) and finds them amusing.

Just another day in modern British conservatism.

 

[geoffk]

If Brexit has indeed contributed significantly to the economic crisis, I hope those responsible face the consequences at the ballot box at some point. But I suspect any link will continue to be covered up.

Personally I would consider the root cause to be a combination of non-Brexit and Brexit factors, so, while we would still be in an economic crisis even in a "remain" scenario, Brexit is adding additional complications.

I've just watched part of BBC2's Newsnight and ITV's Peston. The topic on both channels was the economic crisis in the UK caused by the large increases in food and fuel prices, rising inflation and the likelihood of a recession. The two causes mentioned as contributing to all these were Covid and war in Ukraine. Brexit? - not a mention. It's as though it's been airbrushed out of the debate. The Guardian a month ago was the same - "Economists said the double blow from slowing post-lockdown growth and rising living costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is the definition of a recession." We can only assume that presenters are under strict instructions from their bosses not to mention the B word. The BBC relies on government funding but ITV does not.

 

[MattRat]

I've just watched part of BBC2's Newsnight and ITV's Peston. The topic on both channels was the economic crisis in the UK caused by the large increases in food and fuel prices, rising inflation and the likelihood of a recession. The two causes mentioned as contributing to all these were Covid and war in Ukraine. Brexit? - not a mention. It's as though it's been airbrushed out of the debate. The Guardian a month ago was the same - "Economists said the double blow from slowing post-lockdown growth and rising living costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is the definition of a recession." We can only assume that presenters are under strict instructions from their bosses not to mention the B word. The BBC relies on government funding but ITV does not.

They also don't mention lockdowns, the actual cause, not Covid itself.....

But I guess even the anti government types don't want to open that 'can of worms'.

 

[brad465]

I've just watched part of BBC2's Newsnight and ITV's Peston. The topic on both channels was the economic crisis in the UK caused by the large increases in food and fuel prices, rising inflation and the likelihood of a recession. The two causes mentioned as contributing to all these were Covid and war in Ukraine. Brexit? - not a mention. It's as though it's been airbrushed out of the debate. The Guardian a month ago was the same - "Economists said the double blow from slowing post-lockdown growth and rising living costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is the definition of a recession." We can only assume that presenters are under strict instructions from their bosses not to mention the B word. The BBC relies on government funding but ITV does not.

Basically Brexit is the real world equivalent of saying "Lord Voldemort".

 

[The Ham]

So a(nother) Tory MP arrested for rape (i won't say who of course but you can easily find out online). The deranged hairpiece Fabricant makes a joke about rape, Julia Hate Spewer says its fine and she's heard many rape jokes (really?) and finds them amusing.

Just another day in modern British conservatism.

When the news broke I was saying to my wife, you kind of accept (not the action, just that it'll be a story) that you'll find out about one MP that's found out/accused for something like this. However there's been two in the last few months.

Compare that to a workplace and it's very rarely that you'll find out something like that has happened, or even that someone leaves under suspicious circumstances.

It makes you question is there's something different in their attitude somewhere which makes them more likely to do something like this and why is that? Is it something to do with the party, or just the sort of people who are attracted to the party or what?

 

[birchesgreen]

It makes you question is there's something different in their attitude somewhere which makes them more likely to do something like this and why is that? Is it something to do with the party, or just the sort of people who are attracted to the party or what?

I wonder about the psychology of a perennial backbencher in a safe seat (which is a lot of them). No real pressure to do anything apart from enrich yourself and know you have a lucrative job for life unless something really dramatic happens politically. Plus all those free bars.

 

[Falcon1200]

The topic on both channels was the economic crisis in the UK caused by the large increases in food and fuel prices, rising inflation and the likelihood of a recession. The two causes mentioned as contributing to all these were Covid and war in Ukraine. Brexit? - not a mention.

So is the UK the only country affected and is the rest of the world doing just fine ?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I've just watched part of BBC2's Newsnight and ITV's Peston. The topic on both channels was the economic crisis in the UK caused by the large increases in food and fuel prices, rising inflation and the likelihood of a recession. The two causes mentioned as contributing to all these were Covid and war in Ukraine. Brexit? - not a mention. It's as though it's been airbrushed out of the debate. The Guardian a month ago was the same - "Economists said the double blow from slowing post-lockdown growth and rising living costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is the definition of a recession." We can only assume that presenters are under strict instructions from their bosses not to mention the B word. The BBC relies on government funding but ITV does not.

I didn't see the clip, but from your description, it sounds to me more like, the presenters (and the behind-the-scenes researchers) are doing their best to present the news and reality as it is, not like how pro-remain campaigners would like it to be.

Brexit happened 2 and a half years ago, and the transition period ended nearly 18 months ago. It's in the past. It makes some sense to partially blame Brexit for any price rises that happened 1-2 years ago, but it makes very little sense to blame Brexit for price rises that are happening today - because price rises happening today reflect costs that are changing today (or very recently). And the things that are changing today are 1. The impact of Ukraine/the sanctions on Russia/Russia's attempts to weaponize gas supplies in the period before the war. And 2. Covid (which is still on-going with lockdowns in China).

 

[alex397]

Brexit happened 2 and a half years ago, and the transition period ended nearly 18 months ago. It's in the past. It makes some sense to partially blame Brexit for any price rises that happened 1-2 years ago, but it makes very little sense to blame Brexit for price rises that are happening today - because price rises happening today reflect costs that are changing today (or very recently).

Except Brexit didn’t all just happen 2 and a half years ago. It wasn’t just “done” then. We have transitioned since then, and are only just seeing the impacts for some things.

Obviously Brexit isn’t the sole cause of certain things, but to omit it completely is certainly not being truthful.

 

[D6130]

Plus all those free bars.

To be fair, they're not free bars....but they are heavily subsidised by the taxpayer. (Unless things have changed dramatically since my last visit to the House of Commons in 1993).

 

[brad465]

The Met have concluded their Partygate investigation, with the number of fines increasing to 126:

Boris Johnson will not face a further Partygate fine, says No 10

Police have now ended their investigation into Covid breaches during lockdown parties in No 10.

www.bbc.co.uk

Police have closed their investigation into breaches of Covid rules in and around Downing Street, issuing around 20 further fines.
The Met said the inquiry, which began in January, had resulted in a total of 126 fines across eight gatherings in government buildings.

Now the question that remains is if/when the full Sue Gray report comes out.

 

[nw1]

Except Brexit didn’t all just happen 2 and a half years ago. It wasn’t just “done” then. We have transitioned since then, and are only just seeing the impacts for some things.

Obviously Brexit isn’t the sole cause of certain things, but to omit it completely is certainly not being truthful.

Indeed, I think we will only move on when we have a Government who admit that Brexit was a poor decision, and seek to make amends by building bridges with the EU in some way. Not rejoin, but become closer again and adopt more friendly relations. Customs union would be a start.

We will not get that under Johnson of course, not in a million years - but it could potentially happen under an alternative Tory government with fresh faces. Demographics also favour the lessening of pro-Brexit support as time goes on, as more and more of the adult population will have lived most of their lives with the EEC/EU and the more pro-EU generations will make up more of the voting population.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Except Brexit didn’t all just happen 2 and a half years ago. It wasn’t just “done” then. We have transitioned since then, and are only just seeing the impacts for some things.

What things related to Brexit have changed in the last couple of months, in a way that would explain prices going up today?

 

[Shrop]

Maybe I'm late picking up on this but I hear there was recently a wrestling match in County Durham which got seriously out of hand with two wrestlers beating each other with various equipment, a lot of blood and with children in the audience. Apparently a female representative of the club said it had been a fabulous evening. Where was it? At the Conservative club. Maybe some people approve? It seems the rep thought it was great and her own standards were fine for all. Some might think this is just how conservatives operate - that everyone should think like they do ...

 

[jon0844]

To be fair, they're not free bars....but they are heavily subsidised by the taxpayer. (Unless things have changed dramatically since my last visit to the House of Commons in 1993).

Can't believe I'm defending them, but it appears the bar and restaurants aren't subsidied but simply run for non profit. I saw a menu posted online and while cheap, they're not so cheap as to suggest an actual subsidy.

 

[edwin_m]

What things related to Brexit have changed in the last couple of months, in a way that would explain prices going up today?

The £ has been trending down against the euro from a peak in March.

And more recently the sabre-rattling on the protocol has started again, further damaging whatever credibility the UK had in the eyes of potential investors.

A main contributor to inflation this month was the big increase in energy prices when the cap changed. Thus international energy trends from before the last two months have only now hit the figures.

 

[AlterEgo]

So is the UK the only country affected and is the rest of the world doing just fine ?

Indeed much of the rest of the world is experiencing the same issue. There are problems with industrial capacity and productivity post-pandemic and the Ukraine war is affecting energy and foods prices in a profound way worldwide. Brexit is a pretty small piece of the puzzle, at least by comparison. I am not sure if I were making a news story about the inflation problem that I would even mention Brexit. Andrew Bailey’s evidence to the Treasury Select Committee mentioned it only in passing. However, don’t underestimate the will of people to have their favourite issue dominate everything in a desperate attempt to feel like they were right.

 

[nw1]

Indeed much of the rest of the world is experiencing the same issue. There are problems with industrial capacity and productivity post-pandemic and the Ukraine war is affecting energy and foods prices in a profound way worldwide. Brexit is a pretty small piece of the puzzle, at least by comparison. I am not sure if I were making a news story about the inflation problem that I would even mention Brexit. Andrew Bailey’s evidence to the Treasury Select Committee mentioned it only in passing. However, don’t underestimate the will of people to have their favourite issue dominate everything in a desperate attempt to feel like they were right.

I don't think Brexit is the dominating issue. However I think it is an issue for certain sectors of the economy.
We have lost a lot (in terms of ease of movement and trade) as a result of Brexit and we won't move on until people stop making excuses for it, and seek to at least partially restore some of the movement and trade freedoms that we had beforehand. As I said above, we will not get this under the current government, of course. And I think as others have said, the UK-unfriendly Macron may need to move on, too.

 

[AlterEgo]

I don't think Brexit is the dominating issue. However I think it is an issue for certain sectors of the economy.
We have lost a lot (in terms of ease of movement and trade) as a result of Brexit and we won't move on until people stop making excuses for it, and seek to at least partially restore some of the movement and trade freedoms that we had beforehand. As I said above, we will not get this under the current government, of course. And I think as others have said, the UK-unfriendly Macron may need to move on, too.

French presidents are by default anti-English. It’s a feature not a bug. De Gaulle vetoed Britain joining the EEC. He should have been asked how many of our men died saving France.

I don’t see many freedoms coming back soon. Brexit absolutely neutered the toxic immigration debate for a generation. Legal immigration just isn’t a concern now, and we are now seeing a much more wider demographic coming to the UK than before.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I don't think Brexit is the dominating issue. However I think it is an issue for certain sectors of the economy.
We have lost a lot (in terms of ease of movement and trade) as a result of Brexit and we won't move on until people stop making excuses for it,

I think you'll find that most of the population has already moved on - it's only a small minority plus the LibDems who haven't and keep trying to bring Brexit up in order to blame it for something at every opportunity

 

[edwin_m]

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid'

The boss of the UK's forecaster says Brexit will be worse for the economy than Covid.

www.bbc.co.uk

leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.
He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".
"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC.

Pre-dates Ukraine, but in the view of the official and independent Office for Budget Responsibility, Brexit is a far bigger drag on our prosperity than Covid, and one that affects the UK significantly and other countries very little or not at all. It's also an impact that was entirely self-inflicted, unlike Covid and Ukraine.

 

[DelayRepay]

I am a proud Remainer. I think the decision to leave the EU was the biggest act of self harm this country has ever seen. But it's what people wanted, it's happened and I accept that.

I don't blame the current situation on Brexit, because most other countries are in the same boat. There might be certain problems that are worse than they would have been without Brexit but it's not the main cause.

Our current situation is largely due to the way the world responded to the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.

 

[The Ham]

I do wonder what the excuse will be for getting it so very wrong:

https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1527293385089789953?t=Vo_KlttoaMB9uvkmtfrCqQ&s=19

Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries claims 96% of consultation responses support the privatisation of Channel 4. @MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.

Some have pointed out (given that a large number of respondents are claimed to have been politically motivated) that even excluding those she didn't like it's still not great news:

So 4% of 56293 (2251) agreed with privatisation. If we remove the 46000 "politically motivated" responses from the remainder we are left with 8042 who disagree.

Even with her excuses the survey showed that 78% disagreed with privatisation.

 

[nw1]

I think you'll find that most of the population has already moved on - it's only a small minority plus the LibDems who haven't and keep trying to bring Brexit up in order to blame it for something at every opportunity

I don't blame Brexit as being the main driver for the current economic woes, but...

If people have moved on from something which has restricted our freedom to emigrate, that is, in my view, sad. Why is the UK different from every other country in western, central or northern Europe, all of which are part of the customs union and have freedom of movement even if they are not in the EU? Maybe some people never plan to leave the UK, but many of us might wish to.

To me it's fundamentally about liberty and lost rights. I have a strong philosophical belief in liberty and any change in the law that restricts our liberty has to have a very, very good reason for doing so. Brexit did not. And I have a strong philosophical belief in progress, not regress. Progress includes having more freedom and opportunity than previous generations. Between 1992(ish - not sure exactly when freedom of movement came in) and 2019 we had additional freedoms to live in continental Europe and many continental Europeans had additional freedoms to live here. This has become restricted - a clear regressive policy.