Russia invades Ukraine

[gg1]

Has been for a while now imo. Putin's Russia is the only reason he's managed to maintain his grip on power for so long. If the protests that occured in 2020 in the wake of that utter sham of a presidential election were to start up again tomorrow, he'd be finished due to the reasons @ainsworth74 spells out above. I await the day he gets run out of the halls of power on a rail with relish; few leaders out there today - barring one V. Putin - deserve it as much as he does.

It would be wonderful irony if the 'special military operation' led not only to full EU membership for Ukraine, but also the overthrow of the last remaining Kremlin lapdog in Europe.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Not confirmed, but it seems that another Russian ship is ablaze. This time, one of the frigates is on fire, close to Snake Island. It's probably Admiral Makarov, but what on earth are the Russian marine defences playing at?

 

[Gloster]

Not confirmed, but it seems that another Russian ship is ablaze. This time, one of the frigates is on fire, close to Snake Island. It's probably Admiral Makarov, but what on earth are the Russian marine defences playing at?

This item doesn’t yet seem to be on the more cautious, less click-bait seeking sites. One report said that helicopters had been sent to the ship: whether they are evacuating crew or ‘the crew’ is unclear.

 

[DustyBin]

This item doesn’t yet seem to be on the more cautious, less click-bait seeking sites. One report said that helicopters had been sent to the ship: whether they are evacuating crew or ‘the crew’ is unclear.

Something appeared on Twitter this morning but the whole thing looked rather suspect to me. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s true mind!

 

[Yew]

Not confirmed, but it seems that another Russian ship is ablaze. This time, one of the frigates is on fire, close to Snake Island. It's probably Admiral Makarov, but what on earth are the Russian marine defences playing at?

Perhaps that explains the US reconnaissance drone and RAF signals intelligence aircraft flying over the Black Sea.


Image shows the flight path of a RAF Rivet Joint signals reconnaissance aircraft, in the area where the incident is alleged to have occurred.

 

[Strathclyder]

It would be wonderful irony if the 'special military operation' led not only to full EU membership for Ukraine, but also the overthrow of the last remaining Kremlin lapdog in Europe.

Quite. The first - EU membership for Ukraine - looks set to happen at least in some form (wasn't the process going to be fast-tracked?), the second would be a welcome side effect of Ol' Vlad's 'special military operation'. We can but hope.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Indeed. He likely is only in power after the protests following the corrupt presidential election in 2020 because he was able to pick up the phone to his mate Vlad and get him to send support and knew that if push really came to shove that lots "little green men" could be called in to back him up. Well now Vlad and his security services are extremely distracted so wouldn't have the same amount of support to send and a lot of the "little green men" that would have been sent to prop his regime up are dead in and around Hostomel airport.

Is that the case? I'd love to see Lukashenko gone, but my memory of the news around that 2020 election is that Lukashenko rigged the result and then suppressed the subsequent protests entirely by using his own Belarusian security forces. Russian military forces were stationed in the country later, but I don't recall them being required at the time to keep Lukashenko in power?

 

[ainsworth74]

Is that the case? I'd love to see Lukashenko gone, but my memory of the news around that 2020 election is that Lukashenko rigged the result and then suppressed the subsequent protests entirely by using his own Belarusian security forces. Russian military forces were stationed in the country later, but I don't recall them being required at the time to keep Lukashenko in power?

There were no Russian troops involved but Russia, by my understanding, supplied equipment, training, intelligence and basically any support required by Lukashenko to help him and his security services suppress the revolt. If that hadn't been enough there's no reason to doubt that then Russian military forces would have intervened however it was sufficient by itself.

 

[DustyBin]

Perhaps that explains the US reconnaissance drone and RAF signals intelligence aircraft flying over the Black Sea.

View attachment 114176
Image shows the flight path of a RAF Rivet Joint signals reconnaissance aircraft, in the area where the incident is alleged to have occurred.

Good spot, however there’s been an RAF Rivet Joint following a similar flight path quite regularly over the last week or so. The first time I saw it I thought they’d got lost!

The Global Hawk seems to just go wherever it likes (and quite possibly does!).

 

[Yew]

Good spot, however there’s been an RAF Rivet Joint following a similar flight path quite regularly over the last week or so. The first time I saw it I thought they’d got lost!

I've generally noticed that it was pottering around int he Black Sea, but it certainly seemed focused a like closer over that way today.

 

[DustyBin]

I've generally noticed that it was pottering around int he Black Sea, but it certainly seemed focused a like closer over that way today.

Ah right fair enough. I wonder what accompanies it on it’s flights over the Black Sea?

 

[70014IronDuke]

It would be wonderful irony if the 'special military operation' led not only to full EU membership for Ukraine,

I think we may be getting a bit carried away here. Much as I admire the astonishing resilience and bravery of the Ukrainian people, and of Zelensky's leadership, after Russia's invasion, it is a former Soviet republic with a LOT of problems, including rampant corruption and a lack of rule of law and democratic culture in all walks of life.

Yes, the society is more aware of what 'western values' are than folks in Novosibirsk, but you can't just let Ukraine into the EU. Think Bulgaria/Romania/Hungary and the issues in those countries, and then multiply them by 1,000. That's what Ukraine in the EU could be like.

but also the overthrow of the last remaining Kremlin lapdog in Europe.

On the surface, yes, agreed - but the Belorussians might just get someone worse.

 

[brad465]

So it's May 9th tomorrow, so what Putin does, if anything, in response to this day of national significance in Russia will be important to watch.

 

[yorksrob]

I think we may be getting a bit carried away here. Much as I admire the astonishing resilience and bravery of the Ukrainian people, and of Zelensky's leadership, after Russia's invasion, it is a former Soviet republic with a LOT of problems, including rampant corruption and a lack of rule of law and democratic culture in all walks of life.

Yes, the society is more aware of what 'western values' are than folks in Novosibirsk, but you can't just let Ukraine into the EU. Think Bulgaria/Romania/Hungary and the issues in those countries, and then multiply them by 1,000. That's what Ukraine in the EU could be like.


On the surface, yes, agreed - but the Belorussians might just get someone worse.

Would it be any worse than Hungary, which seems less keen on Western values than Ukraine at present ? Is Ukraine 1000 times less Western than Hungary ?

(Bearing in mind that this is entirely an external matter for our friends in the EU to grapple with).

 

[DustyBin]

So it's May 9th tomorrow, so what Putin does, if anything, in response to this day of national significance in Russia will be important to watch.

All eyes will be on Putin today (which I’m sure is exactly what he wants). There’s been a lot of speculation that he’ll declare the “special military operation” a war and invoke general mobilisation. To me, this looks very risky for Putin as it’s effectively an admission of failure and could backfire spectacularly. There are also practical challenges which we’ve discussed previously. He could stop short of general mobilisation though and call up reservists, or simply extend the contracts of those already fighting.

He could of course do none of the above and use the opportunity to make a rambling speech full of nonsense claims and I imagine threats against the West. It’s a great propaganda opportunity after all. We’ll have to wait and see.

 

[Scotrail314209]

According to the BBC, Putin has just started speaking.

You are fighting for the security of Russia - Putin​

Russian President Vladimir Putin has started his Victory Day speech in Moscow's Red Square by telling Russian fighters they are fighting for the security of Russia now.
He has congratulated veterans on day of "great victory". Victory Day celebrates the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 May 2022 ==

Update: Not much was said, just NATO being a threat and all that blah blah blah.

 

[uglymonkey]

Which I guess at this dreadful time, is good - not ramping up more awfulness

 

[DustyBin]

According to the BBC, Putin has just started speaking.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 May 2022 ==

Update: Not much was said, just NATO being a threat and all that blah blah blah.

I think the final paragraph of my previous post just about sums it up!

I actually can’t decide whether or not he really believes this nonsense himself. On the one hand it clearly is nonsense, but at the same time he appears to be completely detached from reality. I suspect he sets out with an objective (or outline objective) and then creates whatever alternative reality is necessary to support and justify his actions. Who knows……

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 May 2022 ==

Which I guess at this dreadful time, is good - not ramping up more awfulness

Yes, a non-event was the best case scenario, realistically.

 

[Giugiaro]

Would it be any worse than Hungary, which seems less keen on Western values than Ukraine at present ? Is Ukraine 1000 times less Western than Hungary ?
(Bearing in mind that this is entirely an external matter for our friends in the EU to grapple with).

It won't be a problem in my opinion, for three reasons:
1 - The Euromaidan protests already showed support for a trajectory towards EU integration. It also marked the start of the Ukrainian diplomatic process;
2 - The reconstruction of Ukraine will be a valuable opportunity for the EU and Ukraine to work on sustainability and fraternity. Corruption is rampant when there's a lot of money involved. Tightly controlling the funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine with effective and self-governing institutions is fundamental for its success in the future;
3 - There are displaced Ukrainians in the EU because of the war. These people have a unique opportunity to experience the reality they wish for their country, acquiring knowledge that will help them establish their nation. And be less tolerant of bulls***.

Unfortunately, there's been a lot of issues between Ukrainian refugees and Kremlin-backed agents throughout Europe.
In Portugal, Russian people have collected data from refugees that might have helped target family members left in Ukraine. It's a HUGE red flag for us Europeans and Ukrainians.

 

[yorksrob]

It won't be a problem in my opinion, for three reasons:
1 - The Euromaidan protests already showed support for a trajectory towards EU integration. It also marked the start of the Ukrainian diplomatic process;
2 - The reconstruction of Ukraine will be a valuable opportunity for the EU and Ukraine to work on sustainability and fraternity. Corruption is rampant when there's a lot of money involved. Tightly controlling the funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine with effective and self-governing institutions is fundamental for its success in the future;
3 - There are displaced Ukrainians in the EU because of the war. These people have a unique opportunity to experience the reality they wish for their country, acquiring knowledge that will help them establish their nation. And be less tolerant of bulls***.

Unfortunately, there's been a lot of issues between Ukrainian refugees and Kremlin-backed agents throughout Europe.
In Portugal, Russian people have collected data from refugees that might have helped target family members left in Ukraine. It's a HUGE red flag for us Europeans and Ukrainians.

Thanks, that's interesting information !

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

A little chorus to celebrate May 9th (with thanks to Lonnie Donegan)......

Putin on the agony
Putin on the style
That's what little Vladimir is doing all the while
And as I look around me, it always makes me smile,
Watching little Vladimir Putin on the style.

 

[brad465]

There does seem to be a high risk of death if you work in the Russian oil and gas sector in a very senior role:

Russian oil boss dies ‘from toad poisoning’

Alexander Subbotin was a Lukoil board member

www.independent.co.uk

A former top manager of the Russian energy corporation Lukoil has died from suspected toad poisoning, reports say.

Following a session with a local shaman in Mytishchi, a city northeast of Russia’s capital Moscow, Alexander Subbotin a Lukoil board member, allegedly died in a basement after an anti-hangover session with the healer.

Subbotin visited the shaman, Magua, and his wife at their home, the Telegram channel Mash claims, to treat a hangover using toad venom.

“They made an incision on the skin, dripped toad poison there – and after vomiting the patient allegedly got better,” the channel said.

Mash also claims that Subbotin knew the couple for a long time and had regularly used their services.

It notes: “And so he came to them once again – to treat a hangover. Suddenly he felt unwell – his heart ached. The owner decided not to call an ambulance, gave Corvalol and put the businessman to sleep in the basement. There the man died. the deceased were just friends.”

According to reports, the shaman told police that they were just friends with Subbotin - the brother of Valery Subbotin, ex-vice president of Lukoil.

The tale of Subbotin’s curious demise is one in a number of unusual deaths involving Russia’s energy sector, following the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Recently, four current and former Gazprom officials – along with a further Russian energy official – died under mysterious circumstances over the course of several weeks, in the build-up to, and aftermath of, the Ukraine invasion.

 

[gg1]

There does seem to be a high risk of death if you work in the Russian oil and gas sector in a very senior role:

Russian oil boss dies ‘from toad poisoning’

Alexander Subbotin was a Lukoil board member

www.independent.co.uk

So he croaked it then.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Would it be any worse than Hungary, which seems less keen on Western values than Ukraine at present ? Is Ukraine 1000 times less Western than Hungary ?

Tough call. Hungary is doomed, and Ukraine (even with all their problems) is probably much more willing to embrace whatever the EU proposes.

In respects of Hungary, it's a matter of time before all EU funding gets frozen. I dare say that allocating Hungary's share to the redevelopment of Ukraine would be a popular move throughout much of Europe. Even here in Poland, the ruling party has very publicly distanced themselves from Orban, probably because his sickening pro-Putin slant is just too much to stomach.

So it's May 9th tomorrow, so what Putin does, if anything, in response to this day of national significance in Russia will be important to watch.

The lack of response has been...baffling. Russians like grand gestures, and I would have expected a major attack from the Russian forces today. Instead, we had a very weak speech from Putin, and none of the predicted scenarios have come to pass. Are we, perhaps, witnessing the realisation by Russia that they simply can't win this war as long as Ukraine keeps getting supplied by the West?

 

[brad465]

The lack of response has been...baffling. Russians like grand gestures, and I would have expected a major attack from the Russian forces today. Instead, we had a very weak speech from Putin, and none of the predicted scenarios have come to pass. Are we, perhaps, witnessing the realisation by Russia that they simply can't win this war as long as Ukraine keeps getting supplied by the West?

Possibly, although I was thinking whether Putin maybe trying to catch everyone off guard by raising expectations of an escalation today, not doing so, but then escalating things later this week just when many may have thought the threat was passed?

 

[coppercapped]

Possibly, although I was thinking whether Putin maybe trying to catch everyone off guard by raising expectations of an escalation today, not doing so, but then escalating things later this week just when many may have thought the threat was passed?

By all reports (OK, to be pedantic 'many reports'...) he seems to be running out of troops and modern kit to escalate with. If you see what I mean .

The troops that were withdrawn from around Kyiv left most of their kit in Ukraine. The survivors will have to be re-formed, kitted out again and moved to the right place on the front line. With the best will in the world - and world class logistics and supply - this will take three months or more. A defeated army takes time to recover its balance.

 

[najaB]

The troops that were withdrawn from around Kyiv left most of their kit in Ukraine. The survivors will have to be re-formed, kitted out again and moved to the right place on the front line. With the best will in the world - and world class logistics and supply - this will take three months or more.

That's a extremely optimistic timeline. Given the heavy losses both of men and materiel they'd be lucky to be fighting fit before the autumn.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There was a Russian attack some days ago on a Ukrainian electricity supply plant for their railways that it was said were used to bring military supplies for the Ukrainian forces from Europe and America. Are all locomotives electric traction and how disruptive has that attack been to the Ukrainian forces?

 

[daodao]

Tough call. Hungary is doomed, and Ukraine (even with all their problems) is probably much more willing to embrace whatever the EU proposes.

In respects of Hungary, it's a matter of time before all EU funding gets frozen. I dare say that allocating Hungary's share to the redevelopment of Ukraine would be a popular move throughout much of Europe. Even here in Poland, the ruling party has very publicly distanced themselves from Orban, probably because his sickening pro-Putin slant is just too much to stomach.

The EU's wrath, led by the newly re-elected Macron, is likely to be focussed on the UK in the next few weeks, rather than Hungary, when to preserve the unity of the UK the Westminster government is likely to scrap much of the Northern Ireland protocol. This breaking of an international treaty could lead to severe economic sanctions being imposed by the EU on the UK along the lines it has implemented against Russia/Belarus. e.g. in terms of cutting transport links between the EU and the UK.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The EU's wrath, led by the newly re-elected Macron, is likely to be focussed on the UK in the next few weeks, rather than Hungary, when to preserve the unity of the UK the Westminster government is likely to scrap much of the Northern Ireland protocol. This breaking of an international treaty could lead to severe economic sanctions being imposed by the EU on the UK along the lines it has implemented against Russia/Belarus. e.g. in terms of cutting transport links between the EU and the UK.

It won't. Bad though it is, mentioning it in the same thread as Russia's barbarism is ridiculous.