Russia invades Ukraine

[Cloud Strife]

Ben Wallace believes that Putin may use May 9th to announce a mass mobilisation of Russians; and in effect declare World War 3.

The thing is: we know from Ukraine that it's one thing to announce mobilisation, it's another thing to actually mobilise people. Ukraine still has plenty of forces in reserve, but they don't have the weapons for them. A general mobilisation in Russia would achieve nothing. Meanwhile, Ukraine could prepare fertiliser truck bombs and destroy targets at will. Imagine what would happen if a truck bomb blew a recruitment centre into the sky? The terror among the general Russian population would be through the roof, and it would discourage people from reporting to the military.

things aren't going to well for Russia

We know that the top military man is now in Ukraine. That means that it's all or nothing now, and Stefan Korshak (who is - IMO - the best analyst in Ukraine right now) is saying that the terrain is incredibly hard to get through. The Severniy Donets river represents a massive barrier, and in his opinion, the terrain perfectly suits the UAF's tactics. The RF would need significantly more tanks and infantry to get through, but now Ukraine is being supplied with enough hardware to keep them at bay. In his opinion, the Russian advance has stalled, which also fits with Dr Martin's view that Russia just doesn't have the resources.

This is the area that they have to get through now -

- this is going to be hell for the RF forces, especially with spring rains and marshland.

There's also news that Poland will give 200 tanks to Ukraine. This is a serious number by all accounts, and Korshak is now openly speculating that the UAF may have some serious firepower behind them when they inevitably attack the RF forces. I don't think it's too unrealistic right now to say that the "LDPR" leaders must be having sleepless nights, knowing that they have nothing really in reserve to defend the territory with.

The other important thing is that the Ukrainians keep hitting RF infrastructure seemingly at will.

 

[Brooklands]

Sorry folks but if you think the Ukraine can beat the Russian Federation militarily is living in cloud cuckoo land.
Of course there is unimaginable suffering amongst the general population but it is so unnecessary and a avoidable,and they are being misled by their political leaders.
Russia could ‘win’ tomorrow if it wanted with carpet bombing of Ukrainian cities using conventional weapons. As yet they have chosen not to do so.
Joe Biden has been a disgrace during this situation and it is hard to imagine any previous US President to allowing this conflict to escalate as it has.
People really need to grow up and face reality. I for one am not prepared to face being vaporised in so called solidarity with the Ukrainian people however much I may sympathise with their situation.
It’s really not worth it and the conflict must be solved by negotiation sooner or later whatever anyone thinks of the leaders involved.

 

[najaB]

Sorry folks but if you think the Ukraine can beat the Russian Federation militarily is living in cloud cuckoo land.

The Russians seem to be doing quite a good job of losing by themselves, truth be told.

 

[brad465]

Joe Biden has been a disgrace during this situation and it is hard to imagine any previous US President to allowing this conflict to escalate as it has.

I'm guessing you haven't seen the $33bn aid package being put forward by Biden, with the majority of that planned for military aid.

 

[yorksrob]

Sorry folks but if you think the Ukraine can beat the Russian Federation militarily is living in cloud cuckoo land.
Of course there is unimaginable suffering amongst the general population but it is so unnecessary and a avoidable,and they are being misled by their political leaders.
Russia could ‘win’ tomorrow if it wanted with carpet bombing of Ukrainian cities using conventional weapons. As yet they have chosen not to do so.
Joe Biden has been a disgrace during this situation and it is hard to imagine any previous US President to allowing this conflict to escalate as it has.
People really need to grow up and face reality. I for one am not prepared to face being vaporised in so called solidarity with the Ukrainian people however much I may sympathise with their situation.
It’s really not worth it and the conflict must be solved by negotiation sooner or later whatever anyone thinks of the leaders involved.

The West has indulged Russia for far too long. Whatever happens in Ukraine, it's time all links with that disgusting empire are cut for good.

 

[takno]

Sorry folks but if you think the Ukraine can beat the Russian Federation militarily is living in cloud cuckoo land.
Of course there is unimaginable suffering amongst the general population but it is so unnecessary and a avoidable,and they are being misled by their political leaders.
Russia could ‘win’ tomorrow if it wanted with carpet bombing of Ukrainian cities using conventional weapons. As yet they have chosen not to do so.
Joe Biden has been a disgrace during this situation and it is hard to imagine any previous US President to allowing this conflict to escalate as it has.
People really need to grow up and face reality. I for one am not prepared to face being vaporised in so called solidarity with the Ukrainian people however much I may sympathise with their situation.
It’s really not worth it and the conflict must be solved by negotiation sooner or later whatever anyone thinks of the leaders involved.

What is it that leads you to believe that a relatively large country with a significant military and well-trained civilian population, backed hugely by the entire Western world, is entirely unable to beat a slightly larger country with a military composed of clapped out old tat and conscripts who are barely more than children?

 

[midland1]

What are the Russian going to carpet bomb with ? Their old 1950s bombers would be shot out of the sky and they do not have many new bombers.

 

[DanNCL]

A big issue here is that nobody outside of the Kremlin really knows what state any of Russia’s weapons or other military equipment is in. The stuff they’ve used in Ukraine has been in poor condition, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the stuff they’ve still got unused in Russia would also be as poor.

Russia’s biggest threat militarily by far is their stockpile of ground launched missiles. The Russian Air Force isn’t a match for the US Air Force, and with their only aircraft carrier as well as one of their two battlecruisers out of action for refit and the loss of the Moskva their navy isn’t a match for NATO’s either. It’s their ground launched missiles that are the unknown, and whilst the state of their Navy and Air Force may be a strong indicator as to the status of their ground launched nuclear arsenal, it’s not something we want to risk finding out the hard way.

With regards to the Black Sea, with Turkey shutting the Bosphorus to Russian warships NATO could very quickly establish naval supremacy over Russia. With the Moskva gone Russia has nothing of significant size or capability in the Black Sea - on the other hand NATO currently has there a Royal Navy Type 45 Destroyer and if I recall correctly a similar ship from the Spanish Navy too.

Of course with any luck this will all be irrelevant and Putin won’t dare go into armed conflict with NATO.

Joe Biden has been a disgrace during this situation and it is hard to imagine any previous US President to allowing this conflict to escalate as it has.

Trump would have been even worse - he’d have refused to arm Ukraine and Putin would have managed to take over the entire country within days of launching the invasion.

 

[yorksrob]

A big issue here is that nobody outside of the Kremlin really knows what state any of Russia’s weapons or other military equipment is in. The stuff they’ve used in Ukraine has been in poor condition, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the stuff they’ve still got unused in Russia would also be as poor.

Russia’s biggest threat militarily by far is their stockpile of ground launched missiles. The Russian Air Force isn’t a match for the US Air Force, and with their only aircraft carrier as well as one of their two battlecruisers out of action for refit and the loss of the Moskva their navy isn’t a match for NATO’s either. It’s their ground launched missiles that are the unknown, and whilst the state of their Navy and Air Force may be a strong indicator as to the status of their ground launched nuclear arsenal, it’s not something we want to risk finding out the hard way.

With regards to the Black Sea, with Turkey shutting the Bosphorus to Russian warships NATO could very quickly establish naval supremacy over Russia. With the Moskva gone Russia has nothing of significant size or capability in the Black Sea - on the other hand NATO currently has there a Royal Navy Type 45 Destroyer and if I recall correctly a similar ship from the Spanish Navy too.

Of course with any luck this will all be irrelevant and Putin won’t dare go into armed conflict with NATO.


Trump would have been even worse - he’d have refused to arm Ukraine and Putin would have managed to take over the entire country within days of launching the invasion.

Indeed, it's a relief to have a grown-up as American president. Not good enough for those who feel that the West should have capitulated to Russia and acceded to all of its demands at every stage, of course.

 

[AlterEgo]

Trump would have been even worse - he’d have refused to arm Ukraine and Putin would have managed to take over the entire country within days of launching the invasion.

Putin did not invade during the Trump era specifically becuase of the man’s volatility, unpredictability and past form in ordering middle strikes on a base known to house Russian Forces.

 

[ainsworth74]

A big issue here is that nobody outside of the Kremlin really knows what state any of Russia’s weapons or other military equipment is in.

I'm not entirely convinced that we've seen the last few months supports that statement!

 

[GusB]

The West has indulged Russia for far too long. Whatever happens in Ukraine, it's time all links with that disgusting empire are cut for good.

I think we're all a bit fed up with Russia, but I feel you're going a bit too far with the "punish them forever" mantra. It really doesn't work out well when an citizens of an authoritarian state face years of hardship because one particular individual decided that they would make an attempt to take over the world. We've been here before.

There should be reparations, but not to the extent that a country is so crippled that they cannot actually function properly.

It's time all links with that disgusting empire are cut for good

Just think about that for a moment.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Sorry folks but if you think the Ukraine can beat the Russian Federation militarily is living in cloud cuckoo land.

Russia has tried and failed so far. They suffered appalling losses in Kyiv Oblast to the point where they were forced to retreat.

Russia could ‘win’ tomorrow if it wanted with carpet bombing of Ukrainian cities using conventional weapons. As yet they have chosen not to do so.

Which would almost certainly be met with NATO supplying anti-aircraft defences, combined with significant amounts of sabotage within Russia. It would also rely on Russia actually having the bombs and the planes in operable order.

Joe Biden has been a disgrace during this situation and it is hard to imagine any previous US President to allowing this conflict to escalate as it has.

What else do you propose he does?

 

[yorksrob]

I think we're all a bit fed up with Russia, but I feel you're going a bit too far with the "punish them forever" mantra. It really doesn't work out well when an citizens of an authoritarian state face years of hardship because one particular individual decided that they would make an attempt to take over the world. We've been here before.

There should be reparations, but not to the extent that a country is so crippled that they cannot actually function properly.


Just think about that for a moment.

You're right. I need to lay off of the news for a while.

 

[birchesgreen]

I think we're all a bit fed up with Russia, but I feel you're going a bit too far with the "punish them forever" mantra. It really doesn't work out well when an citizens of an authoritarian state face years of hardship because one particular individual decided that they would make an attempt to take over the world. We've been here before.

Yes we need to be wary of tarring all Russians with the same brush. Putin and his regime will be gone sooner or later, we need to make sure we win the hearts and minds of what might follow and hope we don't just end up with a Putin 2.0.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes we need to be wary of tarring all Russians with the same brush. Putin and his regime will be gone sooner or later, we need to make sure we win the hearts and minds of what might follow and hope we don't just end up with a Putin 2.0.

I concede Putin and his regime will be gone eventually. The militarist philosophy also needs to be gone as well in my opinion.

 

[Yew]

I for one am not prepared to face being vaporised in so called solidarity with the Ukrainian people however much I may sympathise with their situation.

Has anything changed in the underlying principles of Mutually Assured Destruction in the last few months?

 

[TheEdge]

I concede Putin and his regime will be gone eventually. The militarist philosophy also needs to be gone as well in my opinion.

There is an issue with the national psyche of Russia at play though. Throughout most of its modern history European Russia has had a long history of European powers (Finland, Sweden, France, Prussia, Germany, Poland-Lithuania) invading from the West. So there is a really baked in fear of that happening again and again and the military will protect them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Apr 2022 ==

Has anything changed in the underlying principles of Mutually Assured Destruction in the last few months?

If anything we have an undeniable proof it works.

 

[yorksrob]

There is an issue with the national psyche of Russia at play though. Throughout most of its modern history European Russia has had a long history of European powers (Finland, Sweden, France, Prussia, Germany, Poland-Lithuania) invading from the West. So there is a really baked in fear of that happening again and again and the military will protect them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Apr 2022 ==



If anything we have an undeniable proof it works.

As I've said before, what country in Europe hasn't had a long history of being invaded (I'll grant you Switzerland).

The problem is that the rest of Europe will now have a baked in fear of Russia being aggressive and invading again and again.

I'm going to try and stay off of this subject now because I'm not sure I have anything positive to say.

 

[TheEdge]

As I've said before, what country in Europe hasn't had a long history of being invaded (I'll grant you Switzerland).

The problem is that the rest of Europe will now have a baked in fear of Russia being aggressive and invading again and again.

I'm going to try and stay off of this subject now because I'm not sure I have anything positive to say.

Us. We did all the invading!

I'm not defending, just adding some background.

 

[yorksrob]

Us. We did all the invading!

I'm not defending, just adding some background.

We did some of the invading in continental Europe, but nowhere near all !

I take your point that we as an island had a comparatively invasion-less last millenium (same can't be said of the previous one though).

 

[hst43102]

I concede Putin and his regime will be gone eventually. The militarist philosophy also needs to be gone as well in my opinion.

Absolutely. I think that, although the "punish all Russians" narrative has a lot of problems, the problems with Russia go much deeper than just Putin and his government. The fact that many ordinary Russians not only support this invasion but also appear to encourage war crimes is deeply worrying to me - Putin will be gone sooner or later, but given the choice the Russians will probably elect another militaristic strongman dicatator.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Us. We did all the invading!

I wonder if you recall these islands being invaded by Romans, Angles, Jutes, Saxons, Vikings, Normans, to name but a few.

In the song "Rule, Britannia" one line repeats...."Britons never, never, never, shall be slaves". Perhaps the writer was historically unaware of the raids on the west coast of England and areas of Ireland by the Muslim Algerian Corsairs (Penzance being one affected settlement) to take slaves for the Ottoman slave markets.

 

[DustyBin]

I would never, ever buy it, but as it's showing up in Apple News - it's the Scum that's doing the worst of this, and given how influential it is on its readers (it can be argued that it is that "newspaper" that decides the outcome of general elections) it does indeed need to pack it in, but I don't hold out much hope.

The BBC is being pretty balanced, so anyone who's losing sleep over this should consider getting news from there alone for now.

Agreed; I’m generally highly critical of the BBC but their reporting of this has been very good IMO.

Sorry folks but if you think the Ukraine can beat the Russian Federation militarily is living in cloud cuckoo land.
Of course there is unimaginable suffering amongst the general population but it is so unnecessary and a avoidable,and they are being misled by their political leaders.
Russia could ‘win’ tomorrow if it wanted with carpet bombing of Ukrainian cities using conventional weapons. As yet they have chosen not to do so.

I’m honestly not sure they could. They have a finite supply of stand-off weapons and actually flying over Ukraine in a heavy bomber is suicidal. Ukrainian air defences are still operational (and being added to) and the Russians haven’t yet managed to establish air superiority (they actually appear to have given up trying).

Joe Biden has been a disgrace during this situation and it is hard to imagine any previous US President to allowing this conflict to escalate as it has.

I agree that Biden made of a mess of things in the run up to the invasion, at one point he basically green-lighted a “limited” incursion.

People really need to grow up and face reality. I for one am not prepared to face being vaporised in so called solidarity with the Ukrainian people however much I may sympathise with their situation.
It’s really not worth it and the conflict must be solved by negotiation sooner or later whatever anyone thinks of the leaders involved.

I agree in that I can’t see a realistic military solution here. Whilst on the one hand I view talk of a war lasting years as a show of Western commitment (or in other words rhetoric), it’s also a possibility. Both sides are well dug in to to the east and I could easily see the war reaching a stalemate. I’ve said it before but I think both sides are in effect vying for a position of strength at the negotiating table as that’s the only place this is going to be resolved.

I think we're all a bit fed up with Russia, but I feel you're going a bit too far with the "punish them forever" mantra. It really doesn't work out well when an citizens of an authoritarian state face years of hardship because one particular individual decided that they would make an attempt to take over the world. We've been here before.

There should be reparations, but not to the extent that a country is so crippled that they cannot actually function properly.


Just think about that for a moment.

I agree and there’s a lesson from history in this regard……

I wonder if you recall these islands being invaded by Romans, Angles, Jutes, Saxons, Vikings, Normans, to name but a few.

Rather before his time I suspect! (Sorry couldn’t resist).

 

[GS250]

Agreed the problems run deeper than Putin and his cronies. There are strong elements of insecurity and a rather obvious inferiority complex of which manifests itself as a false superiority complex.

As my grandmother used to say "funny old lot".

 

[DustyBin]

Lavrov appears to now realise that Russia is not at war with NATO:

Russia does not consider itself at war with NATO, blames Kyiv for talks deadlock - agencies​

April 29 (Reuters) - Russia does not consider itself to be at war with NATO over Ukraine since such a development would increase the risks of a nuclear war, RIA news agency cited Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying on Friday.

RIA also said Lavrov told the Dubai-based Al Arabiya channel that Ukraine was at fault for stalled peace talks with Russia, blaming what he said was Kyiv's changing negotiating positions.

Russia does not consider itself at war with NATO, blames Kyiv for talks deadlock - agencies

Russia does not consider itself to be at war with NATO over Ukraine since such a development would increase the risks of a nuclear war, RIA news agency cited Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Lavrov appears to now realise that Russia is not at war with NATO:

Russia does not consider itself at war with NATO, blames Kyiv for talks deadlock - agencies

Russia does not consider itself to be at war with NATO over Ukraine since such a development would increase the risks of a nuclear war, RIA news agency cited Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying on Friday.

www.reuters.com

According to past Russian statements, they have not been at war with any state, including Ukraine.

 

[Yew]

Absolutely. I think that, although the "punish all Russians" narrative has a lot of problems, the problems with Russia go much deeper than just Putin and his government. The fact that many ordinary Russians not only support this invasion but also appear to encourage war crimes is deeply worrying to me - Putin will be gone sooner or later, but given the choice the Russians will probably elect another militaristic strongman dicatator.

Indeed, it has a feeling similar to what happened with the Germans after the First World War. I would hope that we would not decide to mirror the same mistakes.

 

[DustyBin]

According to past Russian statements, they have not been at war with any state, including Ukraine.

That’s a valid point actually! (Although on this occasion I don’t think it’s a case of semantics).

 

[Gloster]

There is an issue with the national psyche of Russia at play though. Throughout most of its modern history European Russia has had a long history of European powers (Finland, Sweden, France, Prussia, Germany, Poland-Lithuania) invading from the West. So there is a really baked in fear of that happening again and again and the military will protect them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Apr 2022 ==

When did Finland invade Russia?