Blackpool - London - 3rd OAO attempt

[Fyldeboy]

As you may know, Alliance Railway, Great North Western and Grand Central have all made attempts to operate Blackpool North to London and all feature in Arriva's back catalogue!

Despite pulling the covid-plug on Grand Central's attempts, which were very advanced, Arriva certainly thought that the route had potential. With passenger numbers increasing, particually in the leisure market (ahem.. Blackpool?) what are the odds on Arriva trying again?

I guess the rights are already there, or would be easy to resucitate? Lots of sunk costs have already been spent so it's not like setting up from scratch. Presumably they would eventually have access to 220/221/222s that can cope on WCML. It's not Arrivas style but maybe even new build 80x's - Hull Trains and Lumo can afford them as OAOs and Grand Union had them in their plans -- environmentally they would be way more attractive.

 

[JonathanH]

With passenger numbers increasing, particually in the leisure market (ahem.. Blackpool?) what are the odds on Arriva trying again?

Nil. There is no suitable rolling stock available.

The market still requires passengers round the clock not just a leisure flow at certain times of the day or year.

 

[The Planner]

None, as Grand Union Trains with their Scottish services have nabbed the paths if they get the rights.

 

[JonathanH]

None, as Grand Union Trains with their Scottish services have nabbed the paths if they get the rights.

What rolling stock are they expecting to use? Is it available?

 

[The Planner]

What rolling stock are they expecting to use? Is it available?

91s and Mk4 I think.

 

[MattRat]

Isn't Avanti looking at London to Blackpool with 807s?

 

[The Planner]

Isn't Avanti looking at London to Blackpool with 807s?

You shouldn't be seeing Avanti 80x north of Weaver as it stands.

 

[43096]

91s and Mk4 I think.

If they're hoping to start any time in the next 3/4 years then good luck with that. There's the grand total of 13 passenger carrying vehicles available, the rest are with LNER, TfW or scrapped.

 

[Fyldeboy]

WRT stock, I'm not suggesting this will happen overnight - maybe take a few years - but that could be enough time for Voyager/Meridians to come online or even new-build 80x.

Virgin were (and so presumably Avanti are) already running Blackpool/Euston with Voyagers and yet GC were able to secure the rights. GCs proposal was for 5 a day included later trains and Sundays, which filled gaps in the Virgin service - but maybe those services are where a new slimline version of GC could operate, potentially good for the leisure market.

I can't find confirmation that Stirling-London is approved and it is perfectly possible that it is another Ian Yeowart pipedream and that the paths will remain free.

 

[JonathanH]

Virgin were (and so presumably Avanti are) already running Blackpool/Euston with Voyagers and yet GC were able to secure the rights.

How busy are those Avanti trains? It has been suggested in the past that passenger numbers into Blackpool are somewhat limited on these trains.

It is absolutely clear that there is strong demand for services from Blackpool's immediate catchment area (eg passengers on the route to Manchester fill a pair of 331s) but longer distance demand is much less clear.

Avanti are running a train every two hours into Blackpool but that may be because it is a convenient place to terminate trains it has chosen not to run to Glasgow.

 

[The Planner]

WRT stock, I'm not suggesting this will happen overnight - maybe take a few years - but that could be enough time for Voyager/Meridians to come online or even new-build 80x.

Virgin were (and so presumably Avanti are) already running Blackpool/Euston with Voyagers and yet GC were able to secure the rights. GCs proposal was for 5 a day included later trains and Sundays, which filled gaps in the Virgin service - but maybe those services are where a new slimline version of GC could operate, potentially good for the leisure market.

I can't find confirmation that Stirling-London is approved and it is perfectly possible that it is another Ian Yeowart pipedream and that the paths will remain free.

They don't have rights but they are included in the Dec 22 timetable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Nil. There is no suitable rolling stock available.

The market still requires passengers round the clock not just a leisure flow at certain times of the day or year.

I agree with "no chance", but it would be possible by leasing new build 80x.

 

[MattRat]

You shouldn't be seeing Avanti 80x north of Weaver as it stands.

Virgin were (and so presumably Avanti are) already running Blackpool/Euston with Voyagers....

They don't have rights but they are included in the Dec 22 timetable.

I think this is what I was trying to remember. If they do want to keep the service, then a solution will have to be found with the 80x.

If that's the case, then what would be the case for anyone else to run the service?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think this is what I was trying to remember. If they do want to keep the service, then a solution will have to be found with the 80x.

If that's the case, then what would be the case for anyone else to run the service?

Pendolinos released by the third train per hour to Birmingham being operated using the 80x instead.

The 80x are for:
- North Wales
- London to Brum hourly semifast service (half hourly fast to use Pendolinos instead of the present 20 minute frequency)
- Second Liverpool (if it happens)

 

[mmh]

Nil. There is no suitable rolling stock available.

There's loads of rolling stock available. All the stock that's not being used by the TOCs with their reduced timetables.

 

[JonathanH]

There's loads of rolling stock available. All the stock that's not being used by the TOCs with their reduced timetables.

Yes, there is that. Depends on whether it is going for scrap, whether the DfT can prevent it being released to an Open Access Operator and whether it is suitable.

Would the DfT allow Avanti to release Pendolinos only for them to be reused by an Open Access Operator?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Avanti aren't going to release Pendolinos. They are all needed. The 80x are Voyager replacements plus a few for the second Liverpool.

Short of managing to cadge the last few Mk4 sets from LNER, new build 80x seem to be the only option - and seem a popular choice for OAOs, with Lumo and Hull Trains both using them.

 

[507020]

Avanti aren't going to release Pendolinos. They are all needed. The 80x are Voyager replacements plus a few for the second Liverpool.

Short of managing to cadge the last few Mk4 sets from LNER, new build 80x seem to be the only option - and seem a popular choice for OAOs, with Lumo and Hull Trains both using them.

Currently Voyagers can be found running under the wires all the way to Scotland, so if the 80x are a straight replacement for them, how will they not go north of Weaver Junction, unless the plans are for only Pendolinos to be cleared north of there? Will Liverpool then always have a Pendolino in one half of the hour and the 807 in the other and will they ever reach Manchester?

Virgin ran Voyagers to Blackpool before it was electrified. It can of course now take Pendolinos, but still sees some Voyagers running under the wires all the way from Euston. Effectively the refurbished Pendolinos will remain the main WCML fleet.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Currently Voyagers can be found running under the wires all the way to Scotland, so if the 80x are a straight replacement for them, how will they not go north of Weaver Junction, unless the plans are for only Pendolinos to be cleared north of there? Will Liverpool then always have a Pendolino in one half of the hour and the 807 in the other and will they ever reach Manchester?

As I mentioned upthread, the use of 807s on one of the three trains per hour from Euston to Brum (and speeding up the two operated by Pendolinos by running both fast to Coventry) will release enough Pendolinos to remove Voyager operation from north of Weaver Jn. The other 807s will go to Liverpool.

The 5 car bimodes are for North Wales.

 

[BayPaul]

Presumably voyagers could be an option for open access operators. Far from ideal to be running diesel all the wsy under the wires, but otherwise they are probably more suitable for the route than 91s, as they can use tilt to keep up with the pendolinos. Plenty coming available soon.

 

[The Planner]

Presumably voyagers could be an option for open access operators. Far from ideal to be running diesel all the wsy under the wires, but otherwise they are probably more suitable for the route than 91s, as they can use tilt to keep up with the pendolinos. Plenty coming available soon.

The OA paths are assuming non-tilt, and fit, so its a bit of an irrelevance. You would just get a performance benefit.

 

[Philip]

Perhaps 180s could be an option once EMR have their new stock to replace them.

 

[skyhigh]

Perhaps 180s could be an option once EMR have their new stock to replace them.

Anyone planning to start an open access operation would be mad to only use 4 unreliable 180s.

 

[MattRat]

As I mentioned upthread, the use of 807s on one of the three trains per hour from Euston to Brum (and speeding up the two operated by Pendolinos by running both fast to Coventry) will release enough Pendolinos to remove Voyager operation from north of Weaver Jn. The other 807s will go to Liverpool.

The 5 car bimodes are for North Wales.

Will Pendolino's fit at Blackpool? Because if they don't.....

 

[The Planner]

Will Pendolino's fit at Blackpool? Because if they don't.....

Considering they run 11 cars there now...

 

[Clansman]

91s and Mk4 I think.

Last year they applied to amend their application to include new built 93s instead of 91s to haul Mk4s.

Not sure when the final decision is announced but can't be looking good for them at the moment.

 

[skyhigh]

Last year they applied to amend their application to include new built 93s instead of 91s to haul Mk4s.

I think there's a bigger shortage of Mk4s compared to 91s now...

 

[MattRat]

Considering they run 11 cars there now...

Guess that answers that question. I always thought Blackpool was quite a small station compared to Liverpool, but I must be wrong. Rather embarrassing considering I don't live far from there (relatively speaking).

 

[The Planner]

Guess that answers that question. I always thought Blackpool was quite a small station compared to Liverpool, but I must be wrong. Rather embarrassing considering I don't live far from there (relatively speaking).

277m on P1 and P2, P3 - P6 are over 200m as well.

 

[Starmill]

Blackpool North is currently essentially just used by Avanti West Coast as a convenient place to turn back at instead of Preston. The two-hourly through service between Birmingham and Glasgow is currently replaced with a service to Blackpool North which saves a couple of sets. The exception is the 1915 from Birmingham New Street which still serves Glasgow Central. Journey times between Blackpool and London on the through services are very uncompetitive. There is very limited demand between Blackpool and the West Midlands.

Rumour has it that the through trains between Birmingham and Glasgow aren't coming back in the December timetable. I don't know what current proposals are however.

Given there's only one through CrossCountry from Glasgow to Birmingham at 0748 and only two from Birmingham back to Glasgow at 1203 and 1403 this represents essentially a ceding of the market between the West Midlands and the West of Scotland to the airlines who still serve it directly.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Apr 2022 ==

Nil. There is no suitable rolling stock available.

The market still requires passengers round the clock not just a leisure flow at certain times of the day or year.

An amusing point given there are planned to be 221s off lease after next month!