Timetable implications of TfW Mk4 sets

[Bletchleyite]

From https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/ex-lner-and-grand-central-mark-4-sets-for-tfw.182406/page-37:

Only three, and it's arguable that the first northbound and last southbound would be expected to not run West of Cardiff anyway given the times of day involved. It might be possible to have some kind of creative set swap at Cardiff with a DMU in the hours when a MKIV is forming a Holyhead service.

This all sounds very messy to me. It is a shame they don't seem to have enough to do all of it including Cardiff-Holyhead on a 2 hourly or even better hourly pattern.

It seems we are forever doomed not to have a proper Takt (clockface timetable with quality planned connections, e.g. to/from Llandudno and the Conwy Valley) on a simple network that is ideally suited to one.

 

[anthony263]

I really think TFW really should buy more mark4 rakea

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Apr 2022 ==

I really think TFW really should buy more mark4 rakes at least another 2

 

[JonathanH]

I really think TFW really should buy more mark4 rakea

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Apr 2022 ==

I really think TFW really should buy more mark4 rakes at least another 2

There aren't any available until LNER have finished with them.

[I would say they should procure more 197s but it would be better to displace some by electrifying more of the network.]

 

[krus_aragon]

According to a article in the latest modern railways instead of one in every 3 Manchester to South Wales services being loco hauled they considering one in every 2 services as they plan on turning them round at Cardiff with a unit going forward from Cardiff to Swansea and west wales apart from one loco hauled service a day running to/ from Swansea

That said, 2 hourly MKIVs going to Manchester would require 4 sets - meaning that combined with the 3 daily Holyhead services it would require 6 sets out of 7 in use every day, which might prove optimistic.

This all sounds very messy to me. It is a shame they don't seem to have enough to do all of it including Cardiff-Holyhead on a 2 hourly or even better hourly pattern.

It seems we are forever doomed not to have a proper Takt (clockface timetable with quality planned connections, e.g. to/from Llandudno and the Conwy Valley) on a simple network that is ideally suited to one.

I've had a sit down and look at whether a two-hourly Manchester-Cardiff MkIV service could be done with only 5/7 rakes diagrammed, and have come up with a workable solution.

In essence, of the four MkIV diagrams that would be required for a full two-hourly service on the Manchester-Cardiff route, one has been substituted for a pair of 197s. Two of the MkIV diagrams are extended beyond Cardiff to Swansea to shuffle their timings, so that they're operating through Cardiff near peak times. This gives two MkIV services to/from Swansea per day, at 10:00/10:30 and 16:00/16:30. A 197 diagram ends up with a five-hour layover at Cardiff in the middle of the day as a result, but this would probably be split into two diagrams and/or go do other work.

I checked the diagrams for the three fleets, assuming that the 197s will have a 3-car First Class unit as far as Swansea then detaching a 2-car unit for Milford Haven. This'd need five MkIV diagrams (including Holyhead services), 8x 2-car 197s, and 6x 3-car First-Class 197s. The start/stop depots for the diagrams balance and rotate correctly, too.

A PDF copy is attached for anyone who'd care to have a look, and the original spreadsheet I did the rough calculations on. (The spreadsheet's been converted from ods format to xlsx to placate the forum software, but it should still be usable.)

 

[craigybagel]

From https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/ex-lner-and-grand-central-mark-4-sets-for-tfw.182406/page-37:



This all sounds very messy to me. It is a shame they don't seem to have enough to do all of it including Cardiff-Holyhead on a 2 hourly or even better hourly pattern.

It seems we are forever doomed not to have a proper Takt (clockface timetable with quality planned connections, e.g. to/from Llandudno and the Conwy Valley) on a simple network that is ideally suited to one.

I'm hopeful that by and large the final timetable is going to be much closer to Takt than we are now. It would be shame if they didn't use the opportunity of a full recast to to try and achieve that. I'd be surprised if we don't see the stopping pattern tidied up along the North Wales Coast and the Marches. Certainly in the latter case with the MKIVs on Manchester services it seems pretty sensible for the hourly Liverpool/Holyhead service to be all stops down the Marches (albeit at the cost of the current Premium services having to stop a bit more) and for the also hourly Manchesters to be more limited stop.

The problem will be trying to shoe horn the MKIVs into all of this, whilst keeping all the different stakeholders happy who between them will all want a train from there own little place to everywhere else on the network, ideally with first class and a chef.

I've had a sit down and look at whether a two-hourly Manchester-Cardiff MkIV service could be done with only 5/7 rakes diagrammed, and have come up with a workable solution.

In essence, of the four MkIV diagrams that would be required for a full two-hourly service on the Manchester-Cardiff route, one has been substituted for a pair of 197s. Two of the MkIV diagrams are extended beyond Cardiff to Swansea to shuffle their timings, so that they're operating through Cardiff near peak times. This gives two MkIV services to/from Swansea per day, at 10:00/10:30 and 16:00/16:30. A 197 diagram ends up with a five-hour layover at Cardiff in the middle of the day as a result, but this would probably be split into two diagrams and/or go do other work.

I checked the diagrams for the three fleets, assuming that the 197s will have a 3-car First Class unit as far as Swansea then detaching a 2-car unit for Milford Haven. This'd need five MkIV diagrams (including Holyhead services), 8x 2-car 197s, and 6x 3-car First-Class 197s. The start/stop depots for the diagrams balance and rotate correctly, too.

A PDF copy is attached for anyone who'd care to have a look, and the original spreadsheet I did the rough calculations on. (The spreadsheet's been converted from ods format to xlsx to placate the forum software, but it should still be usable.)

That's very impressive work to be fair! It also makes me wonder if TfW will be brave enough to try diagram 6 sets after all since if you can make it work you can tick a lot of boxes that way. Although if I'm reading this correct you appear to have set F6 working two trains at once (1930 MAN - CDF & 1835 SWA - CRE?).

It's going to be an interesting year I think watching everything hopefully come together.

 

[sd0733]

I couldn't say what the diagrams are planned to be, but after speaking to various people at ATC Crewe it's been planned that 2 sets (plus the spare) will stable at Crewe Carriage sheds overnight.
There is also a idea which in its early stages at present to stable a spare loco there each night which will run light to and from Shrewsbury each day and act as a standby loco there.

 

[craigybagel]

I couldn't say what the diagrams are planned to be, but after speaking to various people at ATC Crewe it's been planned that 2 sets (plus the spare) will stable at Crewe Carriage sheds overnight.

I had heard a similar rumour to be fair. 3 sets in Cardiff, 3 in Crewe and 1 in Holyhead should give a fair bit of flexibility.

There is also a idea which in its early stages at present to stable a spare loco there each night which will run light to and from Shrewsbury each day and act as a standby loco there.

Quite advanced stages now I believe - two extra cover turns each day are going into the Crewe loco drivers link in May to cover for it.

I've no idea where they're going to stable it in Shrewsbury during the day though....

 

[krus_aragon]

That's very impressive work to be fair! It also makes me wonder if TfW will be brave enough to try diagram 6 sets after all since if you can make it work you can tick a lot of boxes that way. Although if I'm reading this correct you appear to have set F6 working two trains at once (1930 MAN - CDF & 1835 SWA - CRE?).

It's going to be an interesting year I think watching everything hopefully come together.

Thank you for the kind words! That diagram was duplicated throughout, so I've gone through and fixed the 197 diagrams: they now number 9 2-car and 7 3-car. No changes to the MkIV diagrams, though.

(There's no apparent rotation of the 3-car diagrams other than the one with a long layover in Cardiff, but could be improved by dropping first class provision on a late-night service in each direction.)

Notably, my proof-of-concept only has one (of 5) MkIV diagrams overnighting at Crewe, with three at Cardiff. That suits the old idea (with the original Holyhead-Cardiff MkIV plan) that they'd be maintained in Cardiff, but would be operationally awkward if Crewe are going to maintain them.

I've got two 5-car 197 Crewe-based diagrams that trundle between Manchester and Swansea all day (F7+9, F6+7); either of these could be a sixth MkIV diagram to line up with the above reports of two sets plus spare based at Crewe. (I can't immediately see a good solution to 2 out of 5 sets (plus a spare) at Crewe, though that may be because I've spent too long looking at my current solution.)