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Post Covid Passenger Rebound

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Jim the Jim

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I wonder what will happen to car ownership. A really big reason for people to own cars is to get to work. If you drive into work everyday, then maybe the significant basic cost of having a car makes financial sense. And then you use the car for other trips too, because public transport is too expensive once you're paying for the car anyway. But if, post-pandemic, you aren't driving into work everyday because you mostly work at home now, the case for having a car becomes rather weaker. You're making far fewer trips overall and it will likely be cheaper to ditch having your own car altogether and make all your remaining trips by other means. So if car ownership does go down as a result of people working from home, this means that demand for leisure travel (and occasional commuting) by rail might reasonably be expected to increase, even as regular rail commuting also declines.
 
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Starmill

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Interesting suggestion about 'slightly lower safety standards'. Have you got it the wrong way round - a train driver has no flexibility as to where he drives, he has a signaller to determine his direction, he doesn't have to watch out for other traffic, pedestrians, children, bikes etc etc.....
That's for the reader to come to their own mind about, I don't make any specific comments on whether train drivers should be paid more or less than bus drivers. My comment was merely that they are. The relevant safety standards are much more strict for rail than bus, requiring physical separation to run at higher speeds. This is what causes the higher costs; to oversimplify a great deal a bus doesn't need a signaller or a signalling system.
 

Bletchleyite

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That's for the reader to come to their own mind about, I don't make any specific comments on whether train drivers should be paid more or less than bus drivers. My comment was merely that they are. The relevant safety standards are much more strict for rail than bus, requiring physical separation to run at higher speeds. This is what causes the higher costs; to oversimplify a great deal a bus doesn't need a signaller or a signalling system.

And the vast majority of adults know how to drive a road vehicle. It effectively just takes a "conversion course" to driving a larger one.
 

43066

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Interesting suggestion about 'slightly lower safety standards'. Have you got it the wrong way round - a train driver has no flexibility as to where he drives, he has a signaller to determine his direction, he doesn't have to watch out for other traffic, pedestrians, children, bikes etc etc.....

Highly amusing!

I know you like to think it’s just pulling a lever, but you should consider this: if I started training tomorrow I could learn to be a bus driver in two or three weeks… If you started as a trainee train driver tomorrow, would you be ready to drive my 125mph class 1 express trains by the end of this month?

I rather think not.

I don't make any specific comments on whether train drivers should be paid more or less than bus drivers.

You’ve made a great many such comments over the years.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

And the vast majority of adults know how to drive a road vehicle. It effectively just takes a "conversion course" to driving a larger one.

Of course it can’t be denied that train crew are indeed an expensive resource, but it would be interesting to see a breakdown of total cost per mile by area of expense (albeit this will no doubt vary so widely by factors such as location and time of day as to be meaningless - a DOO GTR driver with hundreds of people behind him isn’t going to be a particularly significant cost on that journey relative to what’s earned. A two car guarded DEMU with five school kids on it will be a different matter).

Inevitably vehicles running on dedicated, maintenance intensive infrastructure are always going to be far more expensive to operate than vehicles which access the shared road network. Staff costs are but one factor in this.
 
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Annetts key

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Why does it cost so much more to operate a train per passenger-km than say a coach? Is it simply because the rail network is obsolete Victorian engineering of little use to the vast majority of people?
So do you think the signalling system, the rails, the sleepers, the ballast, every single bridge, all the telecommunications infrastructure, all the electrical wiring and supply equipment are all still original Victorian engineering?

Why not go the whole hog and tell us that the whole of the U.K. is obsolete because most of our houses and buildings are all Victorian engineering?

And the vast majority of adults know how to drive a road vehicle.
Hmm, I not so sure of this having watched various people attempt to drive a road vehicle…:lol:

Wanders off to grab another bag of popcorn….
 

Starmill

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Hmm, I not so sure of this having watched various people attempt to drive a road vehicle…:lol:
Well, I guess Bletchleyite said that they know how to drive... doesn't mean that they know how to drive safely!!! :lol: Fortunately professional driving is in general a field that can afford to be much more selective about people for whom long hours focusing on safe driving is a good career fit. And in general train driving is even more selective than other types of professional driving such as driving dangerous goods in HGVs.
 

43066

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And in general train driving is even more selective than other types of professional driving such as driving dangerous goods in HGVs.

Which is yet another irrelevant comparison to a road vehicle which is driven on line of sight…
 

Dieseldriver

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Literally incredible, yet another thread degenerating into a bitch fest towards Train Drivers. The bitterness and jealousy is strong on this forum! :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
 

Techniquest

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Literally incredible, yet another thread degenerating into a bitch fest towards Train Drivers. The bitterness and jealousy is strong on this forum! :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

I can't help but read the last bit in the voice of Yoda :lol:

I'd have to agree though, the jealousy around here can be noticeable sometimes. I'm down to skim-reading this thread now, having spent ages going through all 10 pages this afternoon before I posted. Hopefully we'll get back to topic soon, or shall we detract from the topic and discuss wildly silly options for replacing 769s, like was done on the relevant thread recently? That seemed to silence the complaining about them for a couple of days! <D8-):lol:
 

miami

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im afraid your costings are out by a rather significant magnitude.

a typical traincrew of driver plus ’guard’ will cost the train company around £200k pa.

40k /year each is 80k, then I doubled it to 160k, that doubling includes management, holiday, pension, NI etc overheads in normal companies, but lets go with £200k, which is not an order of magnitude off 160k by any means

Assuming 2,000 hours a year working, 200k is £100 an hour. A full 2 car train with off peak is £1k an hour, so about 10% for staff costs and 90% for other.

A £3m 2 car train seems excessively expensive, but financing it at 5% that's £410 a day. Assuming it runs for just 10 hours a day if full that would be £40 an hour. Add that to the staff cost and you're looking at £150/hour.

If trains are just 60% full and earning £600/hour, and costing £150/hour, that leaves £450/hour for the track cost. If that can't pay its way, perhaps it is time to rip up the tracks wherever long trains aren't justified, and replace them with dedicated coachways. Given the cost of hiring a 50 seat coach is about £250 an hour, which including enough tax revenue to pay for road building and maintenance it seems far more efficient.

So do you think the signalling system, the rails, the sleepers, the ballast, every single bridge, all the telecommunications infrastructure, all the electrical wiring and supply equipment are all still original Victorian engineering?

Why not go the whole hog and tell us that the whole of the U.K. is obsolete because most of our houses and buildings are all Victorian engineering?

Hence the problem we have with terrible insulation. If it isn't because of obsolete fixed infrastructure, then perhaps the modern railway just isn't efficent as a means of public transport at all, no matter how much capital is poured into it.
 

Annetts key

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For those thinking of arguing for roads to replace railways, keep in mind that it’s normally considered more expensive to build a new road of equivalent capacity compared to building a new normal (not high speed) railway. And ripping up an existing railway and replacing it with a road of equivalent capacity is not going to be a very cheap solution.

Do the railways of the national network in England, Wales and Scotland cost too much to run? Yes. It’s very hard to prove, but it’s likely that BR before it started organising for privatisation was more efficient in terms of cost compared to either the privatised railways or the current railway organisation.

Unfortunately the current railways are organised in a very top heavy way. Above a front line worker (such as train driver, guard, signaller, station dispatcher, infrastructure worker) there are many, many “white collar” staff.
Don’t get me wrong, most of these have a valuable job to do. But a lot of time and resources are taken up with an obsession with internal railway bureaucracy. Or with one part of the organisation dealing with another via overly complex systems.

Network Rail’s current ideas on how to reduce costs are to reduce the amount of routine scheduled infrastructure maintenance carried out by its front line staff by half (50%). And to remove thousands of infrastructure jobs. But no significant change to any of the organisation above the front line workers (in fact there could be around a hundred more “white collar” staff going on their current ideas).

In short, the internal management of the national railways has become far too complex. Before cutting the funding, and before reducing the amount of maintenance, and definitely before reducing the front line workforce, the whole national railway management systems and support systems needs to be made more effective, more efficient and be fit for purpose.

That means not having countless different companies involved or countless different sectors etc.

In practice:
  • the passenger rolling stock companies (ROSCO) need to be re-absorbed back into a national railway company, then efforts can be made to remove duplication and to reduce overheads.
  • the various train operating companies (TOCs) need to be re-absorbed back into a national railway company, and of course it would be intended to reduce overheads by removing duplication.
  • the various parts of Network Rail (and there are lots) need to be combined to remove duplication and to reduce overheads (as an example, an infrastructure worker can currently come under part of a maintenance organisation (each of which is split into routes/regions and then into delivery units), part of a works delivery organisation, or part of a central services organisation). And the part of Network Rail that “owns” the infrastructure is not the same part of Network Rail that actually “maintains” the infrastructure!
One of the most inefficient parts, is Network Rail’s use of contractors. Some contract staff spend most of their day standing around (or equivalent) doing no useful work. The reasons vary, but not having enough trained and experienced staff compared to unskilled labour is one reason. Poor planning of the job is another.

Network Rail use contractors to manage engineering blockades (T3 possessions), this includes the person in charge of the possession (PICOP) and the possession support staff. The possession support staff go on track at the start of the possession and place protection equipment on the track. They then typically do nothing else during the possession until it’s time to remove the protection equipment at the end of the possession.

It’s also concerning how many top/high level managers in the railways get paid huge salaries, rates that make what train drivers and signallers get paid (even with overtime) look tiny in comparison.

And the amount of money wasted by both maintenance, works delivery and major projects (contract companies) is plain silly. It’s not uncommon to see materials incorrectly stored, which then degrade and become useless. Or work is done (renewals of infrastructure equipment for example), which within a couple of years is overtaken by the same equipment being replaced/renewed again as part of a different scheme. Or a continuation of an earlier schedule (due to stop/start funding).

Or foundations for equipment being provided and never used.

I’ve seen ‘new’ signalling equipment that had less than three years of service being scrapped (as in put in a skip). Including LED signals.
 
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miami

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For those thinking of arguing for roads to replace railways, keep in mind that it’s normally considered more expensive to build a new road of equivalent capacity compared to building a new normal (not high speed) railway. And ripping up an existing railway and replacing it with a road of equivalent capacity is not going to be a very cheap solution.

Sure, but then maybe the line should be mothballed on converted into a long distance cycle track / linear park. After all the Shrewsbury-Newport line seems to only have 4 coaches worth in each direction each hour, something that could easily be replaced with road transport without anyone noticing

Thanks for you explanation of where the massive inefficiencies in the chain sit. Has anything been done to address them over the last 20 years?
 

ar10642

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I wonder what will happen to car ownership. A really big reason for people to own cars is to get to work. If you drive into work everyday, then maybe the significant basic cost of having a car makes financial sense. And then you use the car for other trips too, because public transport is too expensive once you're paying for the car anyway. But if, post-pandemic, you aren't driving into work everyday because you mostly work at home now, the case for having a car becomes rather weaker. You're making far fewer trips overall and it will likely be cheaper to ditch having your own car altogether and make all your remaining trips by other means. So if car ownership does go down as a result of people working from home, this means that demand for leisure travel (and occasional commuting) by rail might reasonably be expected to increase, even as regular rail commuting also declines.

It's a nice idea but I've seen zero evidence of this happening. Second hand car prices are at an all time high and driving instructors are booked out. The pandemic has scared (some) people off public transport and people have stopped buying season tickets.
 

Robertj21a

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It's a nice idea but I've seen zero evidence of this happening. Second hand car prices are at an all time high and driving instructors are booked out. The pandemic has scared (some) people off public transport and people have stopped buying season tickets.
Agreed. There's a massive demand for personal transport, usually cars but also motorbikes and cycles.
Until the railway can improve reliability and good value there will never be any similar demand for trains.
 

Annetts key

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It will be interesting to see if the rising petrol and diesel costs result in some people deciding to change their minds.

However, at the moment, in my area of the country, bus services are a bit erratic due to the number of staff off due to COVID19.
 

bramling

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Yes - the busiest times are still the traditional peaks. Hence why engineering work still makes sense overnight and at weekends, especially Sundays, which are the least worst option. Closing the railway during weekdays (outside of Christmas and Easter blockades) would be very damaging to this traffic.



I quite agree there certainly should be scope for that, and there’s a fair bit of advertising around at the moment aimed at enticing people back. My understanding is that TOCs are somewhat hamstrung by the inflexibility of ticketing arrangements they can offer. In particular properly flexible season tickets still haven’t materialised.

I’ve certainly noticed the A1(M) is emptier at certain times just at the moment. Have to say, I’d happily keep the high fuel prices for the safer and more hassle-free journeys this is offering.

Is this translating to rail, though? Not sure. I suspect some people simply aren’t making the journeys at all, by cutting journeys less important / essential to them.
 

The Planner

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Network Rail’s current ideas on how to reduce costs are to reduce the amount of routine scheduled infrastructure maintenance carried out by its front line staff by half (50%). And to remove thousands of infrastructure jobs. But no significant change to any of the organisation above the front line workers (in fact there could be around a hundred more “white collar” staff going on their current ideas).
A substantial amount of people walked away from the company last week under VS, vacancies can't be filled with a lot of the posts being removed and I fully expect there to be another loss via a re-org or compulsary route within the year. To say there is no change of above the "front line" is just wrong.
 

ar10642

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I’ve certainly noticed the A1(M) is emptier at certain times just at the moment. Have to say, I’d happily keep the high fuel prices for the safer and more hassle-free journeys this is offering.

Is this translating to rail, though? Not sure. I suspect some people simply aren’t making the journeys at all, by cutting journeys less important / essential to them.
Trying to save money on higher fuel costs by switching to rail is like trying to cut your supermarket bill by exclusively dining at Zizzis.
 

Annetts key

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A substantial amount of people walked away from the company last week under VS, vacancies can't be filled with a lot of the posts being removed and I fully expect there to be another loss via a re-org or compulsary route within the year. To say there is no change of above the "front line" is just wrong.
But which part of Network Rail was that in? Yes, they have been offering VS (voluntary severance) to staff in certain parts of the organisation. But not in operations or maintenance. Or any other essential parts of the organisation.

It’s part of the agreed arrangements for there to be a pause on recruitment and transfers while the process is, err, in process.

And I never said that there would never be any further changes later on. We certainly expect further changes eventually. But at the moment, going on what they have said, they have no plans to make any significant changes (as in the reduction of posts) to the organisation above the front line workers in operations or maintenance. And some areas, are out of scope anyway.
 

Class 170101

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That doesn’t attract passengers at all. Even myself who hold a priv pass will not opt for the train if it’s an hourly weekend service. I’ll either drive or take the longer but more frequent bus
I concur with this, in addition I may also postpone to another week.

You still require capacity but with a good frequency. There’s no point trying to attract commuters back with a service that’s say 8 carriages if they’re having to add 50 minutes each way to their journey time because the frequency is so poor, it would add two hours almost onto their daily commute.
Or even leisure users. Frequency and capacity is even more important as a crowded train will be 'called' sooner by a leisure user than by a commuter, around 60% versus 85%

Frequency is one of the most complained about topics to TOCs on social media since Covid with passengers begging for service reinstation
Cross Country especially needs to go back to its twice per hour frequency on its Voyager / HST routes.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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But which part of Network Rail was that in? Yes, they have been offering VS (voluntary severance) to staff in certain parts of the organisation. But not in operations or maintenance. Or any other essential parts of the organisation.

It’s part of the agreed arrangements for there to be a pause on recruitment and transfers while the process is, err, in process.

And I never said that there would never be any further changes later on. We certainly expect further changes eventually. But at the moment, going on what they have said, they have no plans to make any significant changes (as in the reduction of posts) to the organisation above the front line workers in operations or maintenance. And some areas, are out of scope anyway.
Correct parts of the support organisation had become quite bloated partially in expectation of more enhancement work which isn't materialising anywhere near as fast as expected for CP6 and that was before Covid. So given enhancements outside of IRP are parked and even there timing remains very uncertain witness the failure to update the RNEP now for best part of three years it was right to seek VS volunteers in that area. The former TOCs are having to cut their cloth to match lower income so it was right that NR contributes it bit as well so DfT has the cash to support operators and avoid a spiral of decline.
 

Techniquest

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Trying to save money on higher fuel costs by switching to rail is like trying to cut your supermarket bill by exclusively dining at Zizzis.

Ooh that tickled me! I like Zizzi, based on an excellent first visit at the end of 2021, I'd spend on average £140 just on an evening meal for a week in there! That being said I'd not regularly order two drinks per meal or have the rather expensive pudding every time. Still, for 7 meals that's a lot, and doesn't factor in lunch never mind breakfast or snacking!

Still, the concept of at least 2 Zizzi meals a day sounds inviting :lol:

Agreed hugely on the analogy, I wouldn't switch from car to rail to save money. Not a chance!
 

Class 170101

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Correct parts of the support organisation had become quite bloated partially in expectation of more enhancement work which isn't materialising anywhere near as fast as expected for CP6 and that was before Covid. So given enhancements outside of IRP are parked and even there timing remains very uncertain witness the failure to update the RNEP now for best part of three years it was right to seek VS volunteers in that area. The former TOCs are having to cut their cloth to match lower income so it was right that NR contributes it bit as well so DfT has the cash to support operators and avoid a spiral of decline.

I'd be surprised if much of the enhancement budget is actually spent, instead the government has spent it on covid support.
 

matacaster

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I wonder what will happen to car ownership. A really big reason for people to own cars is to get to work. If you drive into work everyday, then maybe the significant basic cost of having a car makes financial sense. And then you use the car for other trips too, because public transport is too expensive once you're paying for the car anyway. But if, post-pandemic, you aren't driving into work everyday because you mostly work at home now, the case for having a car becomes rather weaker. You're making far fewer trips overall and it will likely be cheaper to ditch having your own car altogether and make all your remaining trips by other means. So if car ownership does go down as a result of people working from home, this means that demand for leisure travel (and occasional commuting) by rail might reasonably be expected to increase, even as regular rail commuting also declines.
I see where your coming from, but suspect that the more likely scenario is of a currently 2-car family downsizing to 1 car. Many families have 2 cars as the husband and wife have worked 5 days a week in different locations or one does the childcare thing. If one or both are working from home a second car becomes a luxury.
 

modernrail

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But equally, XC is better operating twice the frequency with an 8-10 car train than half the frequency with a 4-car one (shame those units aren't gangwayed so it means two guards and two buffet stewards). Generally, long distance journeys are fine with hourly, while half-hourly is a sweet spot for urban local services because people are more time-sensitive on shorter journeys.

Similarly TPE should forget the aspiration for 6tph across the Pennines and revert to 4 (2 Liverpool, 2 Piccadilly, one to each of the 4 main destinations) with long trains, e.g. extend the 80x to 7-8 car.
Completely agree on TPE. Is is a route where long trains, efficient platforms etc are key but the infrastructure is just not able to take a 10 minute service so better to go longer and 4 per hour.

Every 15 minutes is fine if properly clock faced through the core and reliable.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

TPE spotting the need to fill the mid-week former peaks?

Or just aiming to avoid [justified/unjustified/cynically timed [delete as appropriate] industrial action.

I do think going on strike at weekends just as British people finally get to emerge from a really yuck 2 years and hopefully have a bit of fun shows the sort of ‘solidarity’ railway workers seem to love, or at least their unions do and their members don’t pull them up on it.
 

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mike57

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I see where your coming from, but suspect that the more likely scenario is of a currently 2-car family downsizing to 1 car.
That is certainly our situation, If we both need to be out at the same time one of us can usually take the train, the increase from an irregular 90-120min interval service to hourly from our village station also helped in that decision. To be fair this was pre covid, as my workplace moved nearer home and I could use the train, before becoming totally WFH. WFH was already on the cards for me pre covid, and I suspect other people were in a similar situation, that why I dont think commuting will ever return to pre-covid levels, because the changes were already starting to happen.
 

nw1

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But should we really be encouraging more leisure travel? Leisure demand is often wildly unpredictable. Moreover it doesn't pay its way. Since capacity is finite, surely the railway should be reserved for essential travel, not moving assorted hedonists and layabouts around the country. Doubtless this market could be better served by buses and coaches instead.

While I agree that commuter traffic should be prioritised, dismissing leisure travellers as "hedonists and layabouts" seems to almost sound like an attack on them!

And there's nothing wrong with encouraging more leisure travel using stock unneeded for commuter use at weekends.
 

ar10642

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Ooh that tickled me! I like Zizzi, based on an excellent first visit at the end of 2021, I'd spend on average £140 just on an evening meal for a week in there! That being said I'd not regularly order two drinks per meal or have the rather expensive pudding every time. Still, for 7 meals that's a lot, and doesn't factor in lunch never mind breakfast or snacking!

Still, the concept of at least 2 Zizzi meals a day sounds inviting :lol:

Agreed hugely on the analogy, I wouldn't switch from car to rail to save money. Not a chance!

It was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment. I try to arrange to use trains if I'm travelling on my own because I like train travel, but other than rare circumstances (e.g. the rather amazing weekend Thameslink Only Haywards Heath - London Thameslink return with Network Railcard discount for about £8) the train comes out more expensive than fuel and parking. Obviously it might differ if you lived on your own and ditched car ownership entirely - but then the bigger problem is the absolutely wild cost of local bus services.
 

Mikey C

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Back on topic...

To me national % figures are meaningless, as the numbers in the southeast will drown out the numbers elsewhere. Numbers on Cornish branchlines or between Sheringham and Cromer could be up on before Covid, but are pin pricks when compared with the effect of reduced commuter numbers to Waterloo or Victoria.

A massive change has happened to office work patterns, and indeed the whole culture of commuting 5 days a week AND being in the office for 9am. Given the choice, who would voluntarily pay a fortune to every day stand on a cold platform at 7:30am to take a crowded train into London, when you don't have to do it any more?

"Macho" investment banks will insist on people being at the desk by 8, and early morning meetings, but lots of organisations will be happy to be far more flexible, and arrange meetings for later in the day so that people can come in off peak. And people are savvy now with split tickets and the use of the cheapest possible Gold Cards...

Thus the whole railway fare model needs reforming. The ridiculous variance between peak and off peak prices is untenable, when fewer people HAVE to travel in the morning peak. But that will also have to mean some sort of increase in off peak fares to compensate, or a new and cleverer way of charging for busy periods, which may include weekends or the evening peak.
 
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