• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Post Covid Passenger Rebound

Status
Not open for further replies.

northwichcat

Veteran Member
Joined
23 Jan 2009
Messages
32,692
Location
Northwich
The closest buses tend to come to having them is not allowing returns at peak time but I'm not sure whether any company still does that.

In some areas Arriva used to have off-peak singles and peak singles.

Return tickets are rare for most bus operators now. If the single is more than 50% of the cost of the day ticket you buy a day ticket if you want to make a return journey, otherwise you buy two singles. The advantage of a day ticket is that if your journey involves multiple buses run by the same operator then you don't have to pay extra for having to change to another service.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

A0

On Moderation
Joined
19 Jan 2008
Messages
7,751
Well said. I've just googled the Lancaster (where I live) to Scarborough journey. £142 return with two together card and best I can do is just 2.5 hours in Scarborough using first train there and last train back which is in fact a RR bus! By car it's 3 hours each way, 157 miles, which would use about 2/3 of a tank of fuel for my car which would cost maybe £60 or so plus maybe £5/£10 for parking and I could have 6/7 hours there. No brainer really. Compared to the London journey, it takes longer, costs more and you have less time there but much shorter distance. The railways need to be less London Centric and have a much better "leisure" timetable for Sundays if they're serious about reducing road traffic and increasing rail usage.

Funny because I've just tried that for next Saturday, and an Off Peak return with the railcard is £ 103.20. (NR website).

The point about an RRB is a side issue because there won't be engineering works every week.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,314
Location
Yorks
I would remind you that running many, heavily loss making lines was what led to the Beeching reforms.

Interestingly the railways now carry more passengers and freight than they did pre Beeching on a much smaller network, which proves the good Doctor had a point when he pointed out the inefficiences of what was there.

Continually sustaining bigger and bigger losses eventually leads to financial collapse - as many private enterprises can demonstrate so taking on more loss making activities is counterproductive.

So your answer for preventing another round of Beeching "reforms" (I assume you are referring to the disastrous closure programme that blights the country to this day) is ...... another round of closures. Twisted logic if ever there was.

The fact that the railways carry much much more traffic than sixty years ago does not prove that "The good Doctor " had a point. For this to have been the case, the increase in numbers would have had to have transferred from the lines that were closed. I would suggest that this is unlikely to be the case to any large extent, and that the growth in traffic is primarily due to the smaller network having gotten better at attracting more traffic. This is what is needed to generate more revenue, not another round of closures.

Mean while in the now rail-less areas where people haven't made it as far as the smaller network, the majority of those people who would have used the train are now car-dependant.

The Beeching reforms led to a viable and sustainable network - whether you like it or not. The fact is that only a tiny proportion of Beeching closures have ever been reversed, particularly where line reopenings are concerned and not all of those have been resounding successes.



Except increasing subsidies does just tgat, it's underpinning a loss making service. A loss is a loss however you choose tondress it up, therefore increasing subsidies just expands loss making operations. It's not difficult to understand.

Clearly, no it didn't lead to a "viable network". This is illustrated by the fact that the closure programme didn't lead to the railway paying its way, as was intended.

There was no end game or destination of a self-funding sustainable network at the end of it. The logic of it would have been to keep snipping and pruning away at the network until there was nothing left.

What actually led to the "viable" network was a political decision and consensus to stabilize the coverage of the network. This decision was taken in spite of the closure programme clearly failing in its aims to make the railway self-funding.

Also, the fact that only a tiny proportion of closures have been reversed has absolutely no bearing on whether the initial closure of any given route was a good idea or not. The only thing it proves is that it is very costly and difficult to reopen a railway line when it has been torn up/built over. A good illustration of this point is the number of routes that were listed for closure and are now thriving, such as the Marshlink. We know that it is a busy route because we can experience the passengers using it. However we also know that if it had been closed and torn up, it would be highly unlikely that it would be reopened.
 

Annetts key

Established Member
Joined
13 Feb 2021
Messages
3,798
Location
West is best
I’m not sure this discussion wandering towards a line closure programme is helpful given that there are no proposals from either the government or the railways for such a programme. And as far as I am aware, there is also no national plan to reduce services (although as always, there may be local/regional reviews).

And indeed, if passenger numbers start increasing again, which is a possibility (despite what the doomsayers are saying), at some point in the future, the number of trains may increase compared to what we currently have, and may go back to or maybe exceed 2019 levels.

While the railways were experiencing a growth in passenger numbers prior to COVID19, the conservative government appeared to be content to continue slowly transferring costs from the taxpayer to the ticket purchaser by raising ticket prices each year.

Most conservative governments (and many Labour governments) have never been keen on increased funding for the railways. That was part of the problem that BR had to cope with.

Now after literally throwing money at the railways during the COVID19 pandemic when government was happy (apparently) to run a reduced train service where only a small fraction of previous passengers were using it, we now have the absurd situation whereby even though passenger levels are at around 80% of pre-COVID19 levels, the government wants to reduce the amount of financial support for the railways. And this is before this country has got completely over COVID19.

Does anyone know how many people are currently off work because they are self isolating? In my part of the world, the number of people who have reported a positive test for COVID19 is as high or higher than in January.
 

Snow1964

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2019
Messages
11,087
Location
West Wiltshire
Is part of the current problem the peak hour tickets no longer synchronise with busy times.

Effectively get less busy trains running in traditional commuting time, with a ticketing system that encourages peak to travel later on busy local trains.

Long distance is different, we no longer have a cross country network where one or two trains per day served all sort of leisure visiting routes. So not a lot of incentive to book advances, instead people use ticket split sites and find cheap tickets which often route them on local trains for part of the journey leaving many long distance services (which often serve business destinations like London) virtually empty.

We need to move the trains around to where demand isn’t (from serving business routes with little demand) to serving leisure and seaside routes to get people back on the trains. It is no use running 10 car trains empty, but people can’t get to places like Scarborough and Weymouth from 30-50 miles inland except on an overcrowded short train.

If it too hard to move the trains, then need to reprice all the tickets to fill the empty trains. Ideally responsively every few weeks, certainly not waiting for months or years to do it.
 
Last edited:

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,314
Location
Yorks
Is part of the current problem the peak hour tickets no longer synchronise with busy times.

Effectively get less busy trains running in traditional commuting time, with a ticketing system that encourages peak to travel later on busy local trains.

Long distance is different, we no longer have a cross country network where one or two trains per day served all sort of leisure visiting routes. So not a lot of incentive to book advances, instead people use ticket split sites and find cheap tickets which often route them on local trains for part of the journey leaving many long distance services (which often serve business destinations like London) virtually empty.

We need to move the trains around to where demand isn’t (from serving business routes with little demand) to serving leisure and seaside routes to get people back on the trains. It is no use running 10 car trains empty, but people can’t get to places like Scarborough and Weymouth from 30-50 miles inland except on an overcrowded short train.

Unfortunately, that's where the lack of progress with electrification is biting us in the backside. The busy leisure routes such as Scarborough are in no position to benefit from a movement of electric commuter trains.

At least the Southern Region has plenty of scope to get people out and aboout though !
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,185
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I’m not sure this discussion wandering towards a line closure programme is helpful given that there are no proposals from either the government or the railways for such a programme. And as far as I am aware, there is also no national plan to reduce services (although as always, there may be local/regional reviews).

This is probably true. While there are lines which should quite possibly close (though personally I oppose any and all closures until we learn how to integrate bus services properly in this country), some people hold the view that public services, in particular the railway, should only be operated on a for profit basis. This is a valid view, but is very right wing, and is not at all a typical view here, nor is it really the majority view in the country, not even most of the Conservative party, so it is probably best simply disregarded.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

gc4946

Member
Joined
17 Jul 2019
Messages
363
Location
Leeds
We need to move the trains around to where demand isn’t (from serving business routes with little demand) to serving leisure and seaside routes to get people back on the trains. It is no use running 10 car trains empty, but people can’t get to places like Scarborough and Weymouth from 30-50 miles inland except on an overcrowded short train.
Agreed! I'll be a happy bunny if on summer weekends and school holidays that I see 6-car DMUs on Settle & Carlisle, 68s+Mk5s on Scarborough trains supplemented with 185s on York shuttles, 6-car formations to/from Bridlington, and all Blackpool North services made up to 6-cars
... with units attached/detached when required.
These initiatives will show that rail values the leisure market as much as commuter and business markets
 

Peterthegreat

Established Member
Joined
22 Feb 2021
Messages
1,795
Location
South Yorkshire
Agreed! I'll be a happy bunny if on summer weekends and school holidays that I see 6-car DMUs on Settle & Carlisle, 68s+Mk5s on Scarborough trains supplemented with 185s on York shuttles, 6-car formations to/from Bridlington, and all Blackpool North services made up to 6-cars
... with units attached/detached when required.
These initiatives will show that rail values the leisure market as much as commuter and business markets
And where is the stock coming from?
 

30907

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Sep 2012
Messages
21,941
Location
Airedale
Well, as long as the connections to London are excellent, the railway, or it seems many who work for it seem to be concerned, everything is fine.
With respect, Bald Rick was replying to a suggestion that a journey from London today would be difficult because of the TPE strike.
 

gc4946

Member
Joined
17 Jul 2019
Messages
363
Location
Leeds
And where is the stock coming from?

I realise it's too much of an ask this year especially with Northern, even if 153s are reactivated.
However this highlights the inflexibility of today's railways, especially stock deployment to cater for peaks and troughs in commuter and leisure travel.
I hope GBR once established will look at this issue.
 

geoffk

On Moderation
Joined
4 Aug 2010
Messages
3,929
Location
Exeter
Having done a couple of Kings Cross to Leeds business trips in the last couple of weeks, the trains are fundamentally pretty empty. The locals in the North seemed well patronised but the long distance ones far less so.
But while local trains in the north are being cut, the Werrington diveunder had as one of its main benefits the increase in the number of long-distance fast trains!
 

TheBigD

Established Member
Joined
19 Nov 2008
Messages
2,043
First class is horrendously expensive. I think it was mainly used by people in expenses. Now the business travel market has dried up maybe time to rethink first class. People happily pay a bit extra for a wider seat/more legroom on a plane. Why not a train? But not silly amounts.

Abanti West Coast are doing just that with standard premium.
 

A0

On Moderation
Joined
19 Jan 2008
Messages
7,751
But while local trains in the north are being cut, the Werrington diveunder had as one of its main benefits the increase in the number of long-distance fast trains!

Actually the main benefit of Werrington was to allow freights better access to the GN / GE joint line without having to cross the ECML on the level - which caused delays to both ECML and the freights. It's the same reason that works at Ely are needed, to improve freight flows, which has an added benefit to passenger service reliability.

The flyover at Nuneaton was built for similar reasons.
 

jonnyfan

Member
Joined
6 Apr 2013
Messages
278
Location
Manchester
With regards to peak fares not being in place at the busiest times now that weekends are the busiest times on the network in many areas.
Peak fares are not necessarily there to reduce demand. Peak fares are in place at times where pricing is inelastic, where people don't have a choice but to pay the higher prices. Whereas off-peak fares generally operate at times where demand is price elastic, the leisure market is sensitive to price.
Peak fares are there to maximise revenue, which we may not like but it is basic economic principles, and I can't see the government giving up on that higher revenue yield at peak times.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
35,712
Well, as long as the connections to London are excellent, the railway, or it seems many who work for it seem to be concerned, everything is fine.

I happen to live near London, and Scarborough was the first seaside town I thought of that was a reasonabke distance away. I was just using it as an example of how the train can be, and often is, cheaper than using the car.

First class is horrendously expensive. I think it was mainly used by people in expenses. Now the business travel market has dried up maybe time to rethink first class. People happily pay a bit extra for a wider seat/more legroom on a plane. Why not a train? But not silly amounts.

In recent years the majority of people using first class have been paying for their own tickets, and there is very significant leisure use of first on long distance services (much more than business).


on the point of peak time - by far and away the busiest time on the railway (on most of not all routes) is Monday to Thursday mornings 0600-0930, and Monday to Friday evenings 1600-1900.
 

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
23,295
Whereas off-peak fares generally operate at times where demand is price elastic, the leisure market is sensitive to price.
Yes and no. If people want to get to a Football match, Rugby match or another one off event they will pay the fare requested of them. I suspect there is some elasticity of price in these cases. Obviously once there is more discretion involved around a journey time or method, that elasticity reduces.
 

Bertie the bus

Established Member
Joined
15 Aug 2014
Messages
3,216
Some of the comments about how off peak travel has rebounded much faster than peak travel means we should be boosting off peak services make no sense at all. Yes, off peak has rebound faster but it is still below what it was in 2019. It makes up a larger slice of the pie but the pie is smaller. The fact it has rebound quicker than expected doesn’t mean it will keep growing. The economy as a whole has rebound faster than most predicted but nobody expects that to mean we will see astronomical growth over the next few years. Similarly, car usage rebounded much faster than rail travel but once it got to mid-90% of per-pandemic usage it has plateaued.
 

Peregrine 4903

Established Member
Joined
18 Aug 2019
Messages
1,518
Location
London
Some of the comments about how off peak travel has rebounded much faster than peak travel means we should be boosting off peak services make no sense at all. Yes, off peak has rebound faster but it is still below what it was in 2019. It makes up a larger slice of the pie but the pie is smaller. The fact it has rebound quicker than expected doesn’t mean it will keep growing. The economy as a whole has rebound faster than most predicted but nobody expects that to mean we will see astronomical growth over the next few years. Similarly, car usage rebounded much faster than rail travel but once it got to mid-90% of per-pandemic usage it has plateaued.
Leisure travel by train has exceeded pre covid levels based on the figures I have seen though.
 

Snow1964

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2019
Messages
11,087
Location
West Wiltshire
Some of the comments about how off peak travel has rebounded much faster than peak travel means we should be boosting off peak services make no sense at all. Yes, off peak has rebound faster but it is still below what it was in 2019. It makes up a larger slice of the pie but the pie is smaller. The fact it has rebound quicker than expected doesn’t mean it will keep growing. The economy as a whole has rebound faster than most predicted but nobody expects that to mean we will see astronomical growth over the next few years. Similarly, car usage rebounded much faster than rail travel but once it got to mid-90% of per-pandemic usage it has plateaued.

The flaw in this argument is it doesn’t recognise that a proportion of employees no longer do 5 full workdays, so their leisure time and off-peak usage can increase.

The other question is that some routes are now busier than previously, so looking at average growth masks the overcrowding on some local routes (at other end of the scale it seems some trains are less than 20% full off-peak)
 

philthetube

Established Member
Joined
5 Jan 2016
Messages
4,181
Right, reality check on that. If I want to take my family (2 kids over 5 years old) from Haywards Heath to the seaside at Eastbourne at the weekend it's £24.80 return by train with railcard discount and 2 child flat fares. There are no advances available.

The diesel is £10.80 return even at today's high prices. Parking is free. Why would I do that unless I really wanted to go by train for some other reason? So the railway gets £0 instead.

If I'm on my own I'll often do it.

That's before I get onto the ridiculous situation where my peak time fare to work in Cambridge is now something like £68 as opposed to driving at £45ish all in. I do actually pay that premium because it's a crap drive but to most people the economics of that do not make sense at all.
hope you only want to go when it is raining, enjoy your long walk into Eastbourne when all the car parks are full, as they often are.
 

Bertie the bus

Established Member
Joined
15 Aug 2014
Messages
3,216
Leisure travel by train has exceeded pre covid levels based on the figures I have seen though.
According to official government statistics weekend rail travel is about 70% of pre-Covid levels so if this additional off peak travel is during the week, in many circumstances, the existing off peak service is more than capable of handling a significant increase. In many areas weekday off peak services are virtually ghost trains.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
35,712
Leisure travel by train has exceeded pre covid levels based on the figures I have seen though.

it hasn’t on the figures I’m seeing, clearly there will be some routes where leisure is higher than Pre covid, but it’s not many.
 

ar10642

Member
Joined
10 Aug 2015
Messages
576
hope you only want to go when it is raining, enjoy your long walk into Eastbourne when all the car parks are full, as they often are.
I know Eastbourne well as I used to live there. Unless it's Airbourne week you can always park for free within 10 mins walk of the seafront.
 

6Gman

Established Member
Joined
1 May 2012
Messages
9,198
Its not so much that its expensive, its perceived as being expensive. I had to go to Digby & Sowton after the Rugby today and I sold a fair chunk of tickets to people going back, nearly everyone was surprised at just how cheap the fares were (admittedly a lot were groupsaves)
Indeed.

I recall a study done by the railway years ago when they asked non-users how much they thought the fare was (it was a regional service somewhere in Yorkshire/ E Mids as I recall).

The perception was that the fare was much higher than it actually was.
 

modernrail

Established Member
Joined
26 Jul 2015
Messages
1,440
While true, peak restrictions at least round where I live have got significantly more onerous in the post privitisation era. This was effectively a massive fare rise by stealth on top of the years of above-inflation rises in the nominal fares.

For longer journeys, my reccolection is that saver returns used to only have restrictions on journeys involving london. There are still a few former-saver returns with no time restrictions mostly those set by TFW and Northern but those set by crosscountry and TPE have peak restrictions now.

For local journeys, journeys within GM now have evening peak restrictions. That essentially means a day in manchester on an off peak ticket ends up either really short or really long.
Exactly.
With regards to peak fares not being in place at the busiest times now that weekends are the busiest times on the network in many areas.
Peak fares are not necessarily there to reduce demand. Peak fares are in place at times where pricing is inelastic, where people don't have a choice but to pay the higher prices. Whereas off-peak fares generally operate at times where demand is price elastic, the leisure market is sensitive to price.
Peak fares are there to maximise revenue, which we may not like but it is basic economic principles, and I can't see the government giving up on that higher revenue yield at peak times.
Except that inelastic period may have just evaporated for a proportion of journeys. They are now more discretionary and so peak pricing left unchanged will drive down revenue.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

According to official government statistics weekend rail travel is about 70% of pre-Covid levels so if this additional off peak travel is during the week, in many circumstances, the existing off peak service is more than capable of handling a significant increase. In many areas weekday off peak services are virtually ghost trains.
I think this is more true south that anywhere else. It was already true down south pre covid and also London outbound in the morning beyond metro land. I couldn’t believe the luxury of heading out of London in the mornings for meetings towards the south coast when I moved down here. You would get a whole carriage to your self frequently!
 

A0

On Moderation
Joined
19 Jan 2008
Messages
7,751
Leisure travel by train has exceeded pre covid levels based on the figures I have seen though.

The, as yet, unanswered question though is whether that's a "blip" caused by people reacting to 2 years of lockdown restrictions and getting out and about or whether it's a long term trend. It could easily be either and as "normal" life returns the leisure market drops back, particularly given the cost of living challenge which will put a squeeze on discretionary spending.
 

Peregrine 4903

Established Member
Joined
18 Aug 2019
Messages
1,518
Location
London
it hasn’t on the figures I’m seeing, clearly there will be some routes where leisure is higher than Pre covid, but it’s not many.
That's my bad, just remembered the figures I was looking at were split long distance, Medium and Short and one of those had defintley exceeded pre covid levels, and another was in the 90% area.
 

modernrail

Established Member
Joined
26 Jul 2015
Messages
1,440
The, as yet, unanswered question though is whether that's a "blip" caused by people reacting to 2 years of lockdown restrictions and getting out and about or whether it's a long term trend. It could easily be either and as "normal" life returns the leisure market drops back, particularly given the cost of living challenge which will put a squeeze on discretionary spending.
I can see that happening, I can also see people trying it out at the mo and being put off by crowded trains, which is one reason it would be good to get some of the fake off peak passsengers back on to peaks to spread the load.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top