Crossrail - Construction updates and progress towards opening (now expected 24 May 2022)

[kevin_roche]

A video clip from the London Assembly Transport Committee Discussion on the current status and opening plans for Crossrail.

Interesting to see the part on the boundary issues when a train is crossing the signalling boundary at Stratford.

 

[camflyer]

I suspect that they will want it open and running by the Jubilee holiday weekend for a mixture of symbolic and practical reasons.

 

[kevin_roche]

As someone who would like to travel on the new line as soon as I can, I'm pretty sure they will open when I am away on holiday.

 

[BahrainLad]

The ceremonial opening of most major projects is quite a long time after they've come into use.

The Queen opened Heathrow Terminal 5 just slightly less than two weeks before it came into operation on 27 March 2008 and we all know what happened there. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7294618.stm

 

[JonathanH]

I suspect that they will want it open and running by the Jubilee holiday weekend for a mixture of symbolic and practical reasons.

Just because it is called the Elizabeth Line doesn't translate directly to when it is ready and all testing is complete. Certainly no practical reasons why it needs to be open by the Jubilee weekend - that weekend might be a good opportunity for testing for all we know. 24tph testing with transitions needs to be done before it opens or there are going to have to be later full closures to test it which wouldn't symbolically be great either.

 

[AM9]

Given th Queen's frailty, is it likely that she would actually attend the opening event?

 

[camflyer]

Just because it is called the Elizabeth Line doesn't translate directly to when it is ready and all testing is complete. Certainly no practical reasons why it needs to be open by the Jubilee weekend - that weekend might be a good opportunity for testing for all we know. 24tph testing with transitions needs to be done before it opens or there are going to have to be later full closures to test it which wouldn't symbolically be great either.

I was thinking that the "practical" reason would be that a lot of tourists (and media!) are expected in London that weekend - try looking at hotel prices - so it would be embarrassing if it wasn't ready.

 

[Snow1964]

Latest update to TfL Board.

Bond Street is now not expected to be fully ready for phase 3 (Abbey Wood-Paddington)

Ilford station has structural problem with ticket hall slab

ELR200 and Alston 5.6 and 5.7 software upgrades expected over Easter

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/s17657/board-20220323-item06-crossrail-update.pdf

 

[Sean Emmett]

AIR, ORR usually announce Permission to Open in the morning. I would open as soon afterwards as they can open all the gates.

IIRC on the opening of the Welsh Highland extension from Dinas to Waunfawr in 2000, the relevant fax (how quaint!) authorising the opening wasn't received until after the first train had left Caernarfon. But before we left Dinas, of course.

It caught out one of the local farmers / protestors, who hadn't twigged the line had opened to the public until he saw a trainload of waving pax go by....

Then he blocked a crossing with his tractor, and we all retired to the Snowdonia Parc pub at Waunfawr until the police sorted it out. Happy days!

Let's hope the Crossrail opening goes more smoothly. Will certainly be using it on a regular basis.

 

[Oxfordblues]

I'm lucky to be in the possession of a BR Western Region Status Pass (Second-Class). Can anyone tell me how far eastwards on the Elizabeth Line does the Western Region extend?

 

[JonathanH]

I was thinking that the "practical" reason would be that a lot of tourists (and media!) are expected in London that weekend - try looking at hotel prices - so it would be embarrassing if it wasn't ready.

It doesn't really go where the festivities are taking place though and very few people will have made plans based on it running - a bit different to the Jubilee line needing to be open for the Millennium celebrations.

 

[CyrusWuff]

I'm lucky to be in the possession of a BR Western Region Status Pass (Second-Class). Can anyone tell me how far eastwards on the Elizabeth Line does the Western Region extend?

I suspect the answer to that will be Paddington, given the Central Operating Section is TfL infrastructure.

Rail Staff Travel haven't issued an updated map to suggest otherwise, though that may just be because it's not open yet.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I was thinking that the "practical" reason would be that a lot of tourists (and media!) are expected in London that weekend - try looking at hotel prices - so it would be embarrassing if it wasn't ready.

Would it not be more embarrassing if they rushed, opened it before all the testing they wanted to do was done, and we had a massive failure of the line on that weekend?
I don't see why waiting a bit longer is an embarrassment at all tbh when the status quo (i.e. the tube plus other rail in London, without Crossrail) is trundling along fine for now.

 

[mrmartin]

The thing is though a launch date tends to galvanises people into action. It's debateable how much so given some of the horrendous failures in the rail industry recently, but if you leave it to end of first half of 2022 you probably end up with not far of a june 30th date. let's see - maybe too pessimistic, but this is how it tends to happen, and if you have some last minute problems suddenly you are past your original date.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The thing is though a launch date tends to galvanises people into action. It's debateable how much so given some of the horrendous failures in the rail industry recently, but if you leave it to end of first half of 2022 you probably end up with not far of a june 30th date. let's see - maybe too pessimistic, but this is how it tends to happen, and if you have some last minute problems suddenly you are past your original date.

We are 3 years and 3mths late already. Once safety regulator says the public can use it they need to open it real test is with real humans not in a controlled environment.

 

[stuu]

The thing is though a launch date tends to galvanises people into action. It's debateable how much so given some of the horrendous failures in the rail industry recently, but if you leave it to end of first half of 2022 you probably end up with not far of a june 30th date. let's see - maybe too pessimistic, but this is how it tends to happen, and if you have some last minute problems suddenly you are past your original date.

I would have thought the management and people who need to know absolutely have a date in mind, with everything scheduled to meet that. No doubt with considerable leeway for cock-ups to avoid any risk of missing the absolute date of 30th June

 

[kevin_roche]

The latest report from Crossrail to the London Assembly has been published on the TfL website. (PDF)

Highlights on the train and signalling software:

To support the transition to the opening of the railway there are further upgrades
planned to the trains and signalling software over the Easter period, including the
commissioning of the ELR200 software and Alstom 5.6 and 5.7 software upgrade.
These upgrades are expected to provide increased operational reliability of the
trains, routeway and signalling systems.

Reliability continues to be built to improve the railway’s performance to a level that is
acceptable for the opening of the Elizabeth line. Work is underway to fix the
remaining bugs discovered with the signalling system and work has been already
completed to remove the last restriction on the railway’s infrastructure. Additional
software upgrades for the tunnel vent system will coincide with commissioning of
ELR200 around Easter 2022 which is expected to further enhance reliability.

The Class 345 fleet has been loaded with the latest train and signalling control
software and reliability has improved but is below the forecast level. Alstom are in
the process of testing an upgraded train software, for loading to the fleet over Easter.

So, as expected, there is more to do on the software side before the new line can open.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The thing is though a launch date tends to galvanises people into action. It's debateable how much so given some of the horrendous failures in the rail industry recently, but if you leave it to end of first half of 2022 you probably end up with not far of a june 30th date. let's see - maybe too pessimistic, but this is how it tends to happen, and if you have some last minute problems suddenly you are past your original date.

I very much hate that attitude that people can somehow pull rabits out of a hat if needs be. For me, when writing software, It takes as long as it takes. I will over estimate the time required so as to avoid disappointment. I will aim to finish early and then move on to the next task. Alternative is time wasted fixing the bugs and repairing the data not to mention the loss of trust etc.

I have seen what happens with deadlines. They are met by hook or be crook with very obvious short comings. I have seen rubbish software. I have seen poorly completed mechanical work. I have seen offices painted without any prep or undercoat.

Given how badly the crossrail project has already slipped behind I see no point in risking further embarrassment - it would be an insult to the recipients of the promise.

Look what the original deadline did. It just made people hang on pretending nothing was wrong until very very late on.

 

[InOban]

The risk is that the new software update may solve existing issues but introduce new ones.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The risk is that the new software update may solve existing issues but introduce new ones.

Yes. That is always a risk - especially with hasty amendments.

 

[Snow1964]

The latest Dashboard (a timeline presentation) with data date 28th February 2022 has now been published, not really possible to quote all as it is diagrammatic with accompanying text

The table identifies the earliest possible dates before risk assessment which is derived from the shortest path to completion, and the P50 and P80 dates (i.e. the date by which, through risk modelling, a milestone is achieved 50% of the time and 80% of the time respectively).
• Stage 3 Revenue Service remains as early as possible and the P50 (May 22) and P80 (June 22) forecast dates remain stable.

The timeline has a 5th mass evacuation still to do (but it may have been done since 28th Feb data date), followed by stage 3a revenue service assured (3a is Abbey Wood - Paddington 12 trains per hour), timetable demonstration, which is shadow full service followed by opening of 3a

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/s17622/appendix-1.pdf

Without naming a date suggests a quiet opening late May or early June, especially as other documents suggest Bond Street could be 3 months later, and software updates will be happening in June

The agenda also has item 15 in part 2 (non public) headed project status update, which might have a target date.

 

[pacenotes]

I very much hate that attitude that people can somehow pull rabits out of a hat if needs be. For me, when writing software, It takes as long as it takes. I will over estimate the time required so as to avoid disappointment. I will aim to finish early and then move on to the next task. Alternative is time wasted fixing the bugs and repairing the data not to mention the loss of trust etc.

I have seen what happens with deadlines. They are met by hook or be crook with very obvious short comings. I have seen rubbish software. I have seen poorly completed mechanical work. I have seen offices painted without any prep or undercoat.

Given how badly the crossrail project has already slipped behind I see no point in risking further embarrassment - it would be an insult to the recipients of the promise.

Look what the original deadline did. It just made people hang on pretending nothing was wrong until very very late on.

Ya know I visited a client today, The first thing I said was your on 8 year old software and most of the problems you are seeing is due to staying with the old software. But they said we can't as we need to test and the good old 'what if' came out...

Most of the time these what-ifs are fixed the same way as the bugs in the old software a workaround was found to work and you just do that. Most software is upgraded all the time now, I think we're coming around to the idea of over the air updates done automatically for your phone and now cars, Hopefully, this will get people used to updates happening long after stuff was built/delivered.

 

[Dstock7080]

The timeline has a 5th mass evacuation still to do (but it may have been done since 28th Feb data date),

the last evacuation exercise involving 2000 persons at Paddington, Woolwich and Tottenham Court Road was last Sunday 13 March.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Ya know I visited a client today, The first thing I said was your on 8 year old software and most of the problems you are seeing is due to staying with the old software. But they said we can't as we need to test and the good old 'what if' came out...

Most of the time these what-ifs are fixed the same way as the bugs in the old software a workaround was found to work and you just do that. Most software is upgraded all the time now, I think we're coming around to the idea of over the air updates done automatically for your phone and now cars, Hopefully, this will get people used to updates happening long after stuff was built/delivered.

Back a few decades ago (last century) and software was released when it was expected to be stable and bug free. After thorough testing. Showing my age.

Nowadays it is seen as acceptable to roll out new software or a new version of old software and expect bugs to be found while it is in use. This scenario is forced on customers by software manufacturers phasing out support for older versions.

That approach has not yet become acceptable with safety critical systems and I assume (hope) it never will. So Crossrail takes time.

But the argument goes that there is always a law of diminishing returns and that at some point the risk from the new software has to be taken as the risk is outweighed by the advantages. Again heavily skewed for safety critical systems. I am in the camp that says software should be written properly and tested properly. It is lazy to do otherwise and I have been confronted with repairing utter rubbish that suggests the programmer cannot write or amend software.

 

[contrex]

Back a few decades ago (last century) and software was released when it was expected to be stable and bug free. After thorough testing. Showing my age.

Define 'bug free'. They're still finding bugs in Unix dating back to the 1980s. In 2021, a vulnerability was found in Marvin Minsky's 1967 implementation of a Universal Turing Machine, 54 years later.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Define 'bug free'. They're still finding bugs in Unix dating back to the 1980s. In 2021, a vulnerability was found in Marvin Minsky's 1967 implementation of a Universal Turing Machine, 54 years later.

Certainly expected to be more bug free than nowadays. Expectations seem to be lower nowadays.

Drifting off topic but suffice to say the software involved with the likes of Crossrail is much more safety critical so more likely to not go live until a higher than non-rail standard is reached. Which of course takes time and patience.

 

[Roast Veg]

Drifting off topic but suffice to say the software involved with the likes of Crossrail is much more safety critical so more likely to not go live until a higher than non-rail standard is reached. Which of course takes time and patience.

I guarantee there will still be "bugs" even after the full launch of service, some of which won't be fixed in the lifetime of the 345s.

 

[dosxuk]

Certainly expected to be more bug free than nowadays. Expectations seem to be lower nowadays.

Drifting off topic but suffice to say the software involved with the likes of Crossrail is much more safety critical so more likely to not go live until a higher than non-rail standard is reached. Which of course takes time and patience.

Ease of updatability is also a factor in the increasing acceptance of bugs at release. If your bug can be fixed by an over-the-air update that can self-install with zero downtime to the end user, they're going to be much more forgiving than if it requires a man with a white-coat to come and swap all the ROMs in your mainframe over the period of a month (or worse, get his soldering iron out and start unwirewrapping!).

The other key factor is the industrialisation of software development - it's no longer a specialised industry with a few players working for huge companies who demand quality over price. Today price is the biggest driver of development, with "fix it once it's out there making money" a key measure for the people financing the work.

As for safety critical software being somehow above all this, all I can do is point to the holes in the ground that used to be 737 MAX's.

 

[InOban]

I've been told that, back in the day, a group of guys were challenged to write an operating system over a weekend. What they wrote was the core of UNIX. Not surprising it's still got bugs.

The original nuclear power stations were controlled throughout their life by operating system written for a LEO computer in the fifties. It was considered too dangerous to attempt a rewrite for newer computers.

My LibreOffice comes in two versions, the latest which has the newest features but may still have bugs, and a slightly older one which may should be stable.

 

[AM9]

Ease of updatability is also a factor in the increasing acceptance of bugs at release. If your bug can be fixed by an over-the-air update that can self-install with zero downtime to the end user, they're going to be much more forgiving than if it requires a man with a white-coat to come and swap all the ROMs in your mainframe over the period of a month (or worse, get his soldering iron out and start unwirewrapping!).

The other key factor is the industrialisation of software development - it's no longer a specialised industry with a few players working for huge companies who demand quality over price. Today price is the biggest driver of development, with "fix it once it's out there making money" a key measure for the people financing the work.

As for safety critical software being somehow above all this, all I can do is point to the holes in the ground that used to be 737 MAX's.

The 737MAX catastrophy was a failure of management, commercial expediency and an arguably criminal dereliction of duty by quality control departments. The software did what it's creators/maintainers intended it to. The overall requirement was wrong in the first place. Many of the problems of modern software driven equipment is the difficulty in integrating it with other systems that have their own development timeline. That is the issue with the 345s with their interaction betwen signalling and other infrastructure control systems.