Russia invades Ukraine

[Doppelganger]

... and the sizable oil and gas fields.

In Ukraine? Not really, they are a net importer of both gas and oil

Remember all those times the taps were turned off when Ukraine weren't paying for its gas and it affected gas flows west into the EU?

 

[rvdborgt]

In Ukraine? Not really, they are a net importer of both gas and oil

Remember all those times the taps were turned off when Ukraine weren't paying for its gas and it affected gas flows west into the EU?

Ukraine may currently be a net importer but Putin (or his friends) could still be in control of the oil and gas extraction and earn lots of money. There are also a lot of fields in Ukraine or in their territorial waters that are still largely untouched.

 

[Doppelganger]

Ukraine may currently be a net importer but Putin (or his friends) could still be in control of the oil and gas extraction and earn lots of money. There are also a lot of fields in Ukraine or in their territorial waters that are still largely untouched.

Sadly those territorial waters included the area around Crimea, which were annexed back in 2014

 

[takno]

Ukraine may currently be a net importer but Putin (or his friends) could still be in control of the oil and gas extraction and earn lots of money. There are also a lot of fields in Ukraine or in their territorial waters that are still largely untouched.

Without Western expertise to aid the extraction, and for the most part Western buyers, they will remain largely untouched

 

[AlterEgo]

Zelensky has conceded Ukraine can never join NATO, an important first step in the negotiations.

No news so far on Russian demands.

 

[TheEdge]

Zelensky has conceded Ukraine can never join NATO, an important first step in the negotiations.

No news so far on Russian demands.

Can't join NATO but can be armed to the teeth by NATO countries...

 

[Shrop]

Maybe it's just me but I can't believe the woman who did this on live Russian TV has got away with a fine of around £200. You might have thought that this type of thing would have caused her to "disappear", or at very least several years in prison. Surely this behaviour would sow big seeds of doubt in the minds of literally millions of Russians who have otherwise supported their Government purely on the basis of their propaganda, which you might think would lead to a much stronger punishment than just a fine?

(Picture shows Russian live news bulletin with female demonstrator holding placard behind.)

 

[LOL The Irony]

Maybe it's just me but I can't believe the woman who did this on live Russian TV has got away with a fine of around £200. You might have thought that this type of thing would have caused her to "disappear", or at very least several years in prison. Surely this behaviour would sow big seeds of doubt in the minds of literally millions of Russians who have otherwise supported their Government purely on the basis of their propaganda, which you might think would lead to a much stronger punishment than just a fine?

Maybe it was a case where so many people saw her, non-personing her was an impossibility, but now you mention it, it is a bit odd.

 

[yorkie]

Maybe it's just me but I can't believe the woman who did this on live Russian TV has got away with a fine of around £200. You might have thought that this type of thing would have caused her to "disappear", or at very least several years in prison. Surely this behaviour would sow big seeds of doubt in the minds of literally millions of Russians who have otherwise supported their Government purely on the basis of their propaganda, which you might think would lead to a much stronger punishment than just a fine?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60749279

She said she had been questioned for 14 hours and not slept for two days, and was not given access to legal help.
The 30,000 rouble (£214; $280) fine relates to her video message.

It is not clear if she will face separate charges relating to her protest on live TV, and there had been fears she would be prosecuted under a more serious, new criminal law that bans calling Russia's military action in Ukraine an "invasion" or spreading "fake news" about the conflict.

"The interrogation lasted for more than 14 hours, I wasn't allowed to get in touch with my family or friends, I was denied access to a lawyer," she said.

Note that the average wage per month in Russia is around 56.5l rouble (source), so a 30k rouble fine is more than half a month's wages for the average person.

There were also news reports stating she was missing during the period when lawyers were unable to contact her. Further action against her may have been deemed untenable and would have bolstered publicity in the case even more.

Whatever anyone thinks of the outcome, she was very brave.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Zelensky has conceded Ukraine can never join NATO, an important first step in the negotiations.

It's not much of a concession. The Finns have been pretending for years that they aren't with NATO, although they (and to a lesser extent Sweden) are perfectly capable of joining tomorrow.

In other news, it looks like we can expect a major assault on Kyiv in the next few days. It's very clear that it's going to be a tremendous disaster for Russia if they do, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're in a 'win or die' mentality now.

 

[Shrop]

Note that the average wage per month in Russia is around 56.5l rouble (source), so a 30k rouble fine is more than half a month's wages for the average person.

Fair enough, but half a month's wages is very light if the alternative was years in jail or perhaps worse if she couldn't be found. She was incredibly brave, and it seems very lucky.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Maybe it was a case where so many people saw her, non-personing her was an impossibility, but now you mention it, it is a bit odd.

I maybe wrong, but I get the impression from previously reported cases that this tends to be the norm for a first protesting-against-the Government offence. Presumably on the basis that people know if they try anything similar again they are likely to end up in prison, so that serves as sufficient intimidation to keep the population in line, without the expense of completely filling up the prisons with first-time protestors.

 

[Gloster]

Without Western expertise to aid the extraction, and for the most part Western buyers, they will remain largely untouched

Until such time as The West decides that it does need the oil (the voters are soon to go to the polls and high fuel prices are a major issue) and feels that it is time to be realistic and let bygones be bygones (the dead are dead). Putin only needs to wait.

 

[Doppelganger]

Maybe it's just me but I can't believe the woman who did this on live Russian TV has got away with a fine of around £200. You might have thought that this type of thing would have caused her to "disappear", or at very least several years in prison. Surely this behaviour would sow big seeds of doubt in the minds of literally millions of Russians who have otherwise supported their Government purely on the basis of their propaganda, which you might think would lead to a much stronger punishment than just a fine?

(Picture shows Russian live news bulletin with female demonstrator holding placard behind.)

The whole thing is fishy. Russia hasn't had live TV broadcasts in years.

This was some sort of stunt organised by the Russians themselves and aimed at the West to show that some Russians are against the war and so the should go easy with them with sanctions.

Furthermore, why is there any English text on the placard, neither Russian nor Ukraine use it. So it was definitely aimed at an external audience.

 

[Noddy]

Zelensky has conceded Ukraine can never join NATO, an important first step in the negotiations.

No news so far on Russian demands.

Nothing in the quotes I’ve seen does he say ‘Ukraine can never join Nato’.

In fact the CNN even report it as:

Zelensky signals he doesn't expect Ukraine to join NATO anytime soon​

This is exactly what everyone knew anyway.

Maybe the Russians will interpret that it means never but if they do, it will show that they have not have read the statement clearly.

The Prime Minister’s response certainly doesn’t regard it as an absolute statement:

Responding to the Ukrainian president’s comments, Boris Johnson’s official spokesperson said: “What’s important that is it is for the Ukrainian government to decide what they think is suitable. They should have no decisions imposed upon them.

Certainly, we do want a peaceful solution to be to be reached but it must be on terms the Ukrainian government agree to and they should not be forced into it. It remains the prime minister’s view that Nato membership is the right of democratic countries, but it’s for those countries to decide.”

Zelensky concedes Ukraine will not join Nato

‘It’s a truth and it must be recognised,’ says Ukrainian leader

www.independent.co.uk

 

[tommy2215]

NATO should come out and assure Russia that Ukraine will never be a NATO member too. Even before the war, Ukraine was many years away from joining so it doesn't really change anything. And if you think about it this war has already been a win for NATO. Russia's economy has been severely weakened (all growth post Soviet era wiped out supposedly), anti-Russian and pro-NATO sentiment is now widespread in Eastern Europe. The world has seen that Russia's military is really not much to fear. Allowing Ukraine to be neutral is only a very small price to pay and definitely helps the peace talks.

 

[yorksrob]

Certainly the countries of Europe (including us) should make it their started aim to ensure that Russia its never again allowed to be in a position to invade is European neighbours. Whether that's by expanding NATO to the border, or ensuring that those countries have the sort of high quality munitions to make war too damaging for Europe I don't know.

Russia must be made to understand that the days of "spheres of influence" are gone and it will be forced to remain within its borders.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Mar 2022 ==

NATO should come out and assure Russia that Ukraine will never be a NATO member too. Even before the war, Ukraine was many years away from joining so it doesn't really change anything. And if you think about it this war has already been a win for NATO. Russia's economy has been severely weakened (all growth post Soviet era wiped out supposedly), anti-Russian and pro-NATO sentiment is now widespread in Eastern Europe. The world has seen that Russia's military is really not much to fear. Allowing Ukraine to be neutral is only a very small price to pay and definitely helps the peace talks.

Such an action would not help Russia to adjust away from its Imperial delusions. NATO should make no such assertions.

If President Zelinsky feels the need to make concessions, the West needs to ensure that a greater long term price is extracted from Russia in other areas, so that the Russian leadership understand that it has lost, whatever fairy stories it feeds to its public.

 

[DelayRepay]

NATO should come out and assure Russia that Ukraine will never be a NATO member too. Even before the war, Ukraine was many years away from joining so it doesn't really change anything. And if you think about it this war has already been a win for NATO. Russia's economy has been severely weakened (all growth post Soviet era wiped out supposedly), anti-Russian and pro-NATO sentiment is now widespread in Eastern Europe. The world has seen that Russia's military is really not much to fear. Allowing Ukraine to be neutral is only a very small price to pay and definitely helps the peace talks.

I agree - in practice Ukraine won't be joining NATO any time soon, so this seems like a sensible bargaining tool.

What does seem inevitable is that Ukraine will join the EU in the not too distant future. It may be that EU membership is the route to future security.

 

[AlterEgo]

I agree - in practice Ukraine won't be joining NATO any time soon, so this seems like a sensible bargaining tool.

What does seem inevitable is that Ukraine will join the EU in the not too distant future. It may be that EU membership is the route to future security.

Indeed, EU membership doesn’t seem to be a sticking point here. Russia has not mentioned it directly as far as I can tell and I doubt it is a basis for military negotiations.

EU membership doesn’t confer security like NATO does but it does probably offer a psychological barrier to any future invasion by Russia.

 

[Monty]

Indeed, EU membership doesn’t seem to be a sticking point here. Russia has not mentioned it directly as far as I can tell and I doubt it is a basis for military negotiations.

EU membership doesn’t confer security like NATO does but it does probably offer a psychological barrier to any future invasion by Russia.

It does, Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty.


Russia's position in the first round of negotiations were quite outrageous. No Nato, no EU, army no larger than 60,000 and accept Donbass and Crimea were Russian.

 

[Noddy]

Indeed, EU membership doesn’t seem to be a sticking point here. Russia has not mentioned it directly as far as I can tell and I doubt it is a basis for military negotiations.

EU membership doesn’t confer security like NATO does but it does probably offer a psychological barrier to any future invasion by Russia.

Russia is also against EU membership for Ukraine.

Ukraine has an association agreement with the 27-nation bloc but wants to become a full member - something that Russia is opposed to. Ukraine's membership has so far not been discussed so as not to antagonise Moscow, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed things, the [EU] official said.

EU eyes Ukrainian membership, could be bargaining chip in Russia talks

European Union leaders may discuss the possibility of Ukrainian membership at an informal summit in March, a senior EU official said on Monday, adding the issue was important for Ukraine in discussions with Russia on ending the conflict.

www.reuters.com

 

[AlterEgo]

It does, Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty.

That simply entitles Ukraine to the same assistance it’s already been getting out with the EU.

Russia's position in the first round of negotiations were quite outrageous. No Nato, no EU, army no larger than 60,000 and accept Donbass and Crimea were Russian.

They have to start somewhere but yes those are preposterous.

Ukraine mustn’t accept Russia dictating the size of its armed forces. If there is no NATO, Ukraine must be allowed no restrictions on its military. Donbas and Crimea probably less difficult to concede to given they’re ungovernable anyway.

Surprising Russia hasn’t demanded things like the disbanding of the Azov battalion or actions taken against Ukraine’s far right paramilitary groups in the talks. This would be quite an easy victory to portray back home in Russia.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Mar 2022 ==

Russia is also against EU membership for Ukraine.

EU eyes Ukrainian membership, could be bargaining chip in Russia talks

European Union leaders may discuss the possibility of Ukrainian membership at an informal summit in March, a senior EU official said on Monday, adding the issue was important for Ukraine in discussions with Russia on ending the conflict.

www.reuters.com

Obviously they don’t want it joining the EU but it wasn’t part of their casus belli.

 

[Shrop]

The whole thing is fishy. Russia hasn't had live TV broadcasts in years.

This was some sort of stunt organised by the Russians themselves and aimed at the West to show that some Russians are against the war and so the should go easy with them with sanctions.

Furthermore, why is there any English text on the placard, neither Russian nor Ukraine use it. So it was definitely aimed at an external audience.

Hmm, interesting points. I've always thought they play a devious and complex game ...

 

[DustyBin]

That simply entitles Ukraine to the same assistance it’s already been getting out with the EU.

They have to start somewhere but yes those are preposterous.

Ukraine mustn’t accept Russia dictating the size of its armed forces. If there is no NATO, Ukraine must be allowed no restrictions on its military. Donbas and Crimea probably less difficult to concede to given they’re ungovernable anyway.

Surprising Russia hasn’t demanded things like the disbanding of the Azov battalion or actions taken against Ukraine’s far right paramilitary groups in the talks. This would be quite an easy victory to portray back home in Russia.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Mar 2022 ==


Obviously they don’t want it joining the EU but it wasn’t part of their casus belli.

Attempting to limit the size of Ukraine’s military is indeed completely absurd. Russia are the aggressor here, if anything they should be the ones demilitarising as they can’t be trusted (that’s never going to happen obviously).

As you say however, everybody needs an opening position in negotiations, and I’d expect both sides to have included demands which they’re willing to concede in the name of compromise.

 

[DelayRepay]

Russia is also against EU membership for Ukraine.

They may be, but they seem less opposed to EU membership than to NATO membership. Unfortunately Ukraine has to negotiate with Russia and will have to concede something in order to end the war. EU membership but not NATO membership would give something that both sides could claim as a victory.

 

[Cowley]

Surprising Russia hasn’t demanded things like the disbanding of the Azov battalion or actions taken against Ukraine’s far right paramilitary groups in the talks. This would be quite an easy victory to portray back home in Russia.

Is that perhaps what they’ll be saying that they’ve achieved with this complete shambles back home at the end of all of this?
No need to put it in there if they want to pretend that they’ve completed one of their main aims.

 

[AlterEgo]

They may be, but they seem less opposed to EU membership than to NATO membership. Unfortunately Ukraine has to negotiate with Russia and will have to concede something in order to end the war. EU membership but not NATO membership would give something that both sides could claim as a victory.

This is, I believe, their strategy. Even Russia must concede this escapade has been a terrible disaster and there is no way of wheeling Ukraine into Russia’s “sphere” in negotiations. Their best bet is to insist on military neutrality. About a third of Ukrainians accept no NATO membership, which is more than will accept Crimea becoming Russian.

Ukraine could be given candidate status in the negotiations. Integration will take a very long time into the EU - perhaps a generation - so Russia may also be able to portray that as a victory.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Mar 2022 ==

Is that perhaps what they’ll be saying that they’ve achieved with this complete shambles back home at the end of all of this?
No need to put it in there if they want to pretend that they’ve completed one of their main aims.

Possibly. I suppose one of the downsides of turning Russia into a hermit kingdom is there’s now very little chance of Russians seeing those groups still exist on the news. Russia’s barely touched them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Mar 2022 ==

Lavrov is now saying there is “some hope of compromise” in the talks.

 

[brad465]

Turns out that there have been a stream of resignations on Russian state TV that the protest by a presenter earlier this week has brought to light:

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations

Marina Ovsyannikova's protest highlighted a growing number of journalists leaving their jobs at Kremlin-run TV channels.

www.bbc.co.uk

When Marina Ovsyannikova burst into Russian living rooms on Monday's nightly news, denouncing the war in Ukraine and propaganda around it, her protest highlighted a quiet but steady steam of resignations from Russia's tightly controlled state-run TV.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has thanked her, appealing to anyone working for what he calls Russia's propaganda system to resign. Any journalist working in what he calls the fourth branch of power risks sanctions and an international tribunal for "justifying war crimes", he warns.
Some of Russian President Vladimir Putin's biggest cheerleaders on state-run TV have already faced sanctions, including Vladimir Solovyov who presents a talk show on Russia's biggest channel Rossiya-1, and Margarita Simonyan who has accused anyone ashamed of being Russian at this point as not really being Russian.
Russia's state-run channels are required to toe the Kremlin line, so who has quit in response to the war?
Hours after Marina Ovsyannikova's on-screen resignation, three other resignations came to light.
Channel One colleague Zhanna Agalakova quit her job as Europe correspondent while two journalists have left rival NTV. Lilia Gildeyeva had worked for the channel as a presenter since 2006 and Vadim Glusker had been at NTV for almost 30 years.

Rumours abound that journalists have also headed for the door at All-Russia state TV group VGTRK.
Journalist Roman Super said people were quitting its Vesti news stable en masse, although that has not been confirmed. However, renowned TV host Sergey Brilev quashed reports that he had resigned, pointing out he has been on a business trip for more than a week.
Maria Baronova is the highest-profile resignation at RT, formerly known as Russia Today. Former chief editor at RT, she told the BBC's Steve Rosenberg this month Mr Putin had already destroyed Russia's reputation and that the economy was dead too.

A number of other RT journalists have also resigned, including non-Russian journalists working for its language services.
Former London correspondent Shadia Edwards-Dashti announced her resignation on the day Russia invaded Ukraine without giving a reason. Moscow-based journalist Jonny Tickle quit on the same day "in light of recent events".
French RT presenter Frédéric Taddeï said he was leaving his show because France was "in open conflict" with Russia and he could not continue to host his programme Forbidden to Forbid "out of loyalty to my country".
Days later, the EU said it was banning all of RT's various outlets as well as those of fellow Kremlin outlet Sputnik for their "campaign of disinformation, information manipulation and distortion of facts". Russia's German-based state news agency Ruptly has also endured a spate of resignations, according to Reuters news agency.
Russia's non-Kremlin media have come under repeated attack for years, so many journalists who have worked under constant threat of losing their livelihoods at independent outlets will be unimpressed by the current crop of resignations. Some have been hit with the Soviet-era label of foreign agent.
Dozhd (TV Rain), which was forced off mainstream TV in 2014, has had to halt its online broadcasts because of the Ukraine invasion and a number of its journalists have fled Russia for their safety.
Radio Ekho Moskvy has also been taken of the air amid Russia's new legislation on so-called false information. BBC Russian is among a number of Western outlets that have been banned, while journalists working for Latvia-based Meduza were forced out of Russia.
It is not just journalists who have disappeared from state TV.
One of Russia's biggest talk show hosts, Ivan Urgant, has taken a break from his prime-time Evening Urgant show on Russia's second biggest channel, Channel One, the same station as Marina Ovsyannikova.
He reacted to the war by posting a black square on his Instagram account with the simple message: "Fear and pain. No War." He has since told his followers not to panic, and that he's taken a holiday and will be back soon.
Russia's number one celebrity couple Alla Pugacheva and Maxim Galkin are among a number of other showbiz figures who have also gone on holiday. Galkin said on Instagram: "There can be no justification for war! No War!"

 

[tommy2215]

Turns out that there have been a stream of resignations on Russian state TV that the protest by a presenter earlier this week has brought to light:

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations

Marina Ovsyannikova's protest highlighted a growing number of journalists leaving their jobs at Kremlin-run TV channels.

www.bbc.co.uk

Very courageous of them to speak ill of Putin's actions. Those around Putin must surely be wondering if the benefits of this war are outweighing the consequences, and if Putin is really the best leader for Russia. At this point I can't think of how Russia is at all benefiting from this conflict

 

[dosxuk]

The whole thing is fishy. Russia hasn't had live TV broadcasts in years.

This was some sort of stunt organised by the Russians themselves and aimed at the West to show that some Russians are against the war and so the should go easy with them with sanctions.

Furthermore, why is there any English text on the placard, neither Russian nor Ukraine use it. So it was definitely aimed at an external audience.

Where is this idea that Russia doesn't have live television broadcasts coming from? It's 100% untrue - they have the same sort of range of live and pre-recorded programming that pretty much the rest of the world has.