Are the high petrol prices helping the recovery of rail traffic?

[Bletchleyite]

Every time you fill the car tank, you are helping Putin. I agree that public transport is too unreliable, but that can be cured if enough of us demand it.

Unfortunately, the same applies if we fill up a DMU or diesel bus. We need more electrification and nuclear to power it.

 

[Bald Rick]

You didn’t explain where all the life expired batteries will go,

into grid storage facilities, where battery capacity is less of an issue; it’s the Tesla business model

and its unlikely that any new large scale plant will be able to achieve private sector funding for the foreseeable future.

I'm genuinely surprised at this. The strike price for Hinkley Point C was £92.50/MWh. Given that for the last quarter the average wholesale price has been more than twice that, and has been over that, on average, for more than a year, I’d say the economics of nuclear have never been better.

Even better for offshore wind - I’m willing to bet that the backers of Hornsea2, Triton Knoll and Moray East are kicking themselves, as they are currently paying Government an average of around £4m/day collectively in CFD (contracts for difference) payments. It would have been twice that through February.

 

[Starmill]

Fracking. Underground Coal Gassification.

Is it realistic to expect those to be cheaper? They aren't currently.

 

[Signal_Box]

Not at all. Motoring is and will continue to be a vital part of our transport infrastructure. People in rural villages will always need some elements of driving. I'd respectfully suggest it's just your biases talking there. We can all drive less, and drive electric where we do so, without giving up cars. And achieve all of our important objectives about climate while doing so.

But one thing you don't get to do is complain about the embodied carbon emissions of electric vehicles while not accepting there needs to be a large net reduction in vehicle km on the roads. You cannot have it both ways.

Indeed I can’t have it both ways, public transport can get me to work for when I need to be here nor can I rely on it when I could. The cost is way more than my car which I’ve not long brought with a good modern engine under the bonnet.

Electric isn’t for me, the price of the actual electric is going up every week it seems so is it actually saving me money over petrol ?

The main driver is cost, not the environmental benefits people will always say they want XYZ until the cost becomes clear then they rapidly change their minds.

 

[Starmill]

into grid storage facilities, where battery capacity is less of an issue; it’s the Tesla business model




I'm genuinely surprised at this. The strike price for Hinkley Point C was £92.50/MWh. Given that for the last quarter the average wholesale price has been more than twice that, and has been over that, on average, for more than a year, I’d say the economics of nuclear have never been better.

Even better for offshore wind - I’m willing to bet that the backers of Hornsea2, Triton Knoll and Moray East are kicking themselves, as they are currently paying Government an average of around £4m/day collectively in CFD (contracts for difference) payments. It would have been twice that through February.

I reckon that there's absolutely no issue whatsoever attracting the investment. The issue is entirely tied up with English NIMBYism, which nuclear power stations perhaps more than any other kind of development illicit from people.

 

[Signal_Box]

Every time you fill the car tank, you are helping Putin. I agree that public transport is too unreliable, but that can be cured if enough of us demand it.

And HGV, bus, train, plane etc.

To be honest here, until bombs start dropping on the U.K. ill happily keep out of any wars that happen overseas.

 

[Starmill]

Indeed I can’t have it both ways, public transport can get me to work for when I need to be here nor can I rely on it when I could. The cost is way more than my car which I’ve not long brought with a good modern engine under the bonnet.

Electric isn’t for me, the price of the actual electric is going up every week it seems so is it actually saving me money over petrol ?

The main driver is cost, not the environmental benefits people will always say they want XYZ until the cost becomes clear then they rapidly change their minds.

That's because public transport in nearly all of the country is rubbish. It's unquestionably impossible to do anything useful about our transport emissions without big changes to that.

 

[Bald Rick]

I reckon that there's absolutely no issue whatsoever attracting the investment. The issue is entirely tied up with English NIMBYism, which nuclear power stations perhaps more than any other kind of development illicit from people.

interestingly, there is much less NIMBYism for new nuclear power stations next to existing nuclear facilities. The ‘Stop Sizewell C’ campaign has only 1000 followers on Twitter. But there lots of local people who want it there.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I reckon that there's absolutely no issue whatsoever attracting the investment. The issue is entirely tied up with English NIMBYism, which nuclear power stations perhaps more than any other kind of development illicit from people.

You are unlikely to get much NIMBYism if you just expand existing sites, as people are already used to living near one and like the employment they bring.

 

[Starmill]

You are unlikely to get much NIMBYism if you just expand existing sites, as people are already used to living near one and like the employment they bring.

I suspect that is true, but sadly our industrial policy has really not prioritised this. See the descoping of plans for reprocessing at Sellafield for example.

 

[JamesT]

Is it realistic to expect those to be cheaper? They aren't currently.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/072215/can-fracking-survive-60-barrel.asp# reckons fracking is probably cheaper than North Sea Oil and gives an estimate of $50 a barrel for break-even.
Looking at the 10 year span on https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/trading-commodities/wti-crude-oil# then oil has mostly been above that $50 barrel for most of that period. If the premise of this thread is that we're looking at a potentially sustained period of high prices then it's worthwhile.
Though as oil and gas extraction is done on a commercial basis, the decision of whether it's worth it would be up to the companies if we didn't ban it.

 

[Starmill]

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/072215/can-fracking-survive-60-barrel.asp# reckons fracking is probably cheaper than North Sea Oil and gives an estimate of $50 a barrel for break-even.
Looking at the 10 year span on https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/trading-commodities/wti-crude-oil# then oil has mostly been above that $50 barrel for most of that period. If the premise of this thread is that we're looking at a potentially sustained period of high prices then it's worthwhile.
Though as oil and gas extraction is done on a commercial basis, the decision of whether it's worth it would be up to the companies if we didn't ban it.

So fracking wouldn't be meaningfully cheaper than nuclear or wind power in the long term, but does cause much greater externalities.

I know some people inherently dislike the idea of decarbonisation but I'm afraid that it's a new permanent feature of Western life. Net zero will be replaced by the need for net negative in due course.

 

[dk1]

The conductor I was working with this morning said the same thing. He said he'd sold more weekly seasons than at any time since before the pandemic.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The conductor I was working with this morning said the same thing. He said he'd sold more weekly seasons than at any time since before the pandemic.

Of course a lot of trains are diesel, and as such fares will need to go up too. Just like the wires need to go up, fast.

 

[Ken H]

Of course a lot of trains are diesel, and as such fares will need to go up too. Just like the wires need to go up, fast.

I think electricity will take a price hike too. Much electricity is made from gas.

 

[Watershed]

but, for most routes the service is at Pre pandemic levels for most if not all the day.

Try telling that to SWR, GTR, Southeastern, XC, Avanti, WMT, EMR Regional, Northern, TPE, TfW or ScotRail passengers...! It's no use having other operators running a full service if your usual journey has half its pre-Covid service, as is the case for many flows on those operators.

Unless and until a pre-Covid level of service is reintroduced, it will continue to discourage people from travelling. Certainly there are journeys for which I now drive rather than taking the train, even though the train is cheaper.

and there is lots of evidence that even where services are back to Pre covid levels, passenger numbers are not

Commuters haven't fully returned to the railway, and likely never will. In many ways it's a good thing, because it has allowed a number of units to go off-lease, no longer needed for inefficient peak-only diagrams.

But that is a completely separate matter from the heavily reduced timetables still in operation across the day on numerous TOCs.

 

[dk1]

Of course a lot of trains are diesel, and as such fares will need to go up too. Just like the wires need to go up, fast.

Sadly the wires thing is usually a lot of hot water with little action. Yes, will have hedged their fuel this year but inevitably it'll have to be paid for somehow.

 

[Starmill]

Sadly the wires thing is usually a lot of hot water with little action. Yes, will have hedged their fuel this year but inevitably it'll have to be paid for somehow.

Just think of all that diesel that will be saved by the new APCO at Church Fenton

Maybe they should take the wires out to Brundall and put one in there for you

 

[dk1]

Just think of all that diesel that will be saved by the new APCO at Church Fenton

Maybe they should take the wires out to Brundall and put one in there for you

Nah keep on diesel here in the parish. It sounds better

Pity we can't sort out APCO in this neck of the woods. We seem scared of anything close

 

[Bald Rick]

I think electricity will take a price hike too. Much electricity is made from gas.

it already has. And will again.

Try telling that to SWR, GTR, Southeastern, XC, Avanti, WMT, EMR Regional, Northern, TPE, TfW or ScotRail passengers...! It's no use having other operators running a full service if your usual journey has half its pre-Covid service, as is the case for many flows on those operators.

To use SWR as one example, there are many routes with a normal service (or very nearly so), including Alton, Kingston, Chessington, Hampton Court, Shepperton, Windsor Branch, Hounslow Loop, WoE line, Camberley line, Guildford- Farnham, etc etc. Yes some lines don’t. But most do.

 

[Watershed]

To use SWR as one example, there are many routes with a normal service (or very nearly so), including Alton, Kingston, Chessington, Hampton Court, Shepperton, Windsor Branch, Hounslow Loop, WoE line, Camberley line, Guildford- Farnham, etc etc. Yes some lines don’t. But most do.

Again, great if you use those lines. But if you want to travel from Brighton to Portsmouth, or Reading to Southampton, or Hertford to Moorgate, or Sheffield to Doncaster, or Glasgow to Edinburgh... it's of little solace.

And it seems more than a little ironic that the lines you quote predominantly serve London commuters (those same commuters which we both agree haven't returned in large numbers), whilst less commuter oriented lines elsewhere have suffered heavy cutbacks.

 

[Bald Rick]

i realise that, I just want to make the point that for very many people, it’s a normal service.

 

[Shrop]

i realise that, I just want to make the point that for very many people, it’s a normal service.

"Normal service" might be changing for ever. While petrol prices are rocketing, which might suggest a move away from cars, electric prices are rocketing too, which swings the pendulum back.
People have worked from home more in the last two years than ever before, but with Covid rapidly becoming less of an issue, holidays will be the "go to" need for transport of all sorts as people release their pent up need for them. This could lead to more leisure travel on both road and rail, but also less business travel.
All this is before we even start on Ukraine. Who knows whether the inability to have leisure travel due to Covid, will be replaced by leisure travel being suppressed due to threats from Russia? Even if it's just through fear rather than actual service changes?
These are just some thoughts, but the fact is that variables surrounding travel of all sorts, particularly public transport, could be becoming less and less stable. Of course we can hypothesise about how different fuel costs might affect rail travel, but perhaps we should be prepared to re-assess quite a lot about rail services. And road travel, and maybe even our lifestyles.

 

[RailWonderer]

My Land Rover Defender managed better than that, it was just over 30 on average and that was with the rather aggressive acceleration needed to use the MK grid. What on earth is it, some massive V8 petrol?

An Alfa Romeo 159 3.2l V6. The engine was made by American GM.

If I have to drive more often I will get something with better mpg though.

"Normal service" might be changing for ever. While petrol prices are rocketing, which might suggest a move away from cars, electric prices are rocketing too, which swings the pendulum back.
People have worked from home more in the last two years than ever before, but with Covid rapidly becoming less of an issue, holidays will be the "go to" need for transport of all sorts as people release their pent up need for them. This could lead to more leisure travel on both road and rail, but also less business travel.
All this is before we even start on Ukraine. Who knows whether the inability to have leisure travel due to Covid, will be replaced by leisure travel being suppressed due to threats from Russia? Even if it's just through fear rather than actual service changes?
These are just some thoughts, but the fact is that variables surrounding travel of all sorts, particularly public transport, could be becoming less and less stable. Of course we can hypothesise about how different fuel costs might affect rail travel, but perhaps we should be prepared to re-assess quite a lot about rail services. And road travel, and maybe even our lifestyles.

The thing about EVs is that they require a supply of nickel and cobalt which the Chinese are looking for in Everest and the prices of those metals is surging, which will increase the price of new EVs, then you have the cost of charging them, which will increase. Petrol may well end up cheaper in the long run.
Lifestyles are mostly dictated by jobs and necessity, like commuting, trips to buy furniture and garden supplies which you cannot do by public transport, and trips to places not served by transport i.e. national parks, scenic points etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Petrol may well end up cheaper in the long run.

It's not about it being cheaper, it's about reducing pollution, particularly at the point of usein urban areas where it causes most harm (this is why an EV charged from a coal power station is better than an ICE vehicle in an urban context). ICE vehicles will be banned in the long run.

Lifestyles are mostly dictated by jobs and necessity, like commuting

Where you live in relation to your job is a choice. Our home ownership system actively discourages workforce mobility by making moving complex, slow and expensive. Almost everything in life makes moving closer to a new job hard - that needs to change. Even if we stick with the UK preference of ownership, there's no reason the system couldn't be changed to make the process of sale take a few weeks rather than a few months (e.g. by making all the searches electronic and instant so conducted before offering, and making accepted offers binding on both parties), while stamp duty (a tax on workforce mobility) should be removed from all primary residence transactions in favour of an ownership tax (set higher on unoccupied houses to discourage people leaving them empty).

trips to buy furniture and garden supplies which you cannot do by public transport

These can be delivered and increasingly are.

and trips to places not served by transport i.e. national parks, scenic points etc.

While coverage is variable, our National Parks do have public transport. There is scope for big improvement, though.

 

[RailWonderer]

It's not about it being cheaper, it's about reducing pollution, particularly at the point of usein urban areas where it causes most harm (this is why an EV charged from a coal power station is better than an ICE vehicle in an urban context). ICE vehicles will be banned in the long run.



Where you live in relation to your job is a choice. Our home ownership system actively discourages workforce mobility by making moving complex, slow and expensive. Almost everything in life makes moving closer to a new job hard - that needs to change. Even if we stick with the UK preference of ownership, there's no reason the system couldn't be changed to make the process of sale take a few weeks rather than a few months (e.g. by making all the searches electronic and instant so conducted before offering, and making accepted offers binding on both parties), while stamp duty (a tax on workforce mobility) should be removed from all primary residence transactions in favour of an ownership tax (set higher on unoccupied houses to discourage people leaving them empty).



These can be delivered and increasingly are.



While coverage is variable, our National Parks do have public transport. There is scope for big improvement, though.

I don't want to get the game of predicting the future (ironically posted in speculative) but if EVs price people out of motoring, people will turn to used petrol vehicles until EVs are more affordable. People care about their own pockets, especially in a cost of living crisis more than they do the environment. The school mums in my area with their SUVs doing 20mpg will all be in EVs in 10 years time because they mostly buy new cars and there won't be any ICEs to buy, while the poorer motorists will need to look to buying used (maybe there will be enough used EVs by 2030?).

Totally agree about stamp duty and an tax on vacant homes though long term empty homes pay council tax and that's all. I think the Tories aren't interested in that though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't want to get the game of predicting the future (ironically posted in speculative) but if EVs price people out of motoring, people will turn to used petrol vehicles until EVs are more affordable. People care about their own pockets, especially in a cost of living crisis more than they do the environment. The school mums in my area with their SUVs doing 20mpg will all be in EVs in 10 years time because they mostly buy new cars and there won't be any ICEs to buy, while the poorer motorists will need to look to buying used (maybe there will be enough used EVs by 2030?).

Cars tend to stick around for 10-15 years before repair becomes uneconomic, so it's likely that by 2030 there will be a very decent market in used EVs. There already is in Nissan Leafs, as those have been around a while, but they don't suit everyone.

Those who drive "old bangers" will still be on petrol, but the large mid-market of buying used cars between 2 and 5 years old and keeping them for 3-5 years is going to be almost all EV by then.

 

[MattRat]

Just want to add that judging by the current fuel station queues, people would rather burn money than use public transport.

 

[dk1]

Woman sitting next to me on Stowmarket station has just said that she sold her car yesterday. After a recent MOT bill & rocketing fuel costs she is sick of it and has even bought a railcard.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Just want to add that judging by the current fuel station queues, people would rather burn money than use public transport.

Putting the price up doesn't make a journey viable by public transport. It's probably more likely that people will not make the journey at all in many cases (e.g. cancel a weekend away in the hills) than go by public transport.

The one place it might cause a shift is commuting, but it's more likely to cause a stronger push for home working.