Russia invades Ukraine

[AlterEgo]

From time to time in life it is necessary to take a reality check. Eventually this conflict will lead to some sort of negotiation since it is clear that Russia has no realistic chance to both conquer and then control the whole of Ukraine. Before that negotiation gets underway, regardless of what happens elsewhere in their country, the Ukrainians' reality check will force them to accept that the Donbass and Crimea are now under permanent Russian control. That fight is simply no longer worth continuing however regrettable that may be. Once that conclusion is accepted it becomes much easier to talk of a Ukrainian state aligning with Ukrainian identity.

As to your rough comparison with the Irish situation one of the keys to the uneasy peace brought about by the GFA was the Republic of Ireland giving up its claim over Northern Ireland in return for participation in all sorts of cross-border bodies. So Ireland can concentrate on the needs of people south of the border and the northern Loyalists can live with much less paranoia about Republicanism.

Long-term peace has to involve a degree of compromise according to the reality on the ground. Ultimately Putin claims he wants to re-unify the Russian peoples while Ukrainians, en mass, reject the idea that they are in fact one of those peoples. Ceasing the conflict over who should control Donbass and Crimea will be an important part of re-establishing peace in the region.

I quite agree.

As far as the long term peace goes, I'm hopeful that whatever (very heavy) arms have been distributed to the Ukrainians does not end up in the hands of various nasty militias that have existed there for some time.

We may be hopeful that Putin's successor is not so blindly revanchist. Putin will not be here in 5-10 years.

 

[najaB]

Poland are handing over all of their MIG-29 jets to the USA (who are presumably going to get them to Ukraine).

As I noted above - they said that no Polish aircraft would be sent to Ukraine. However, once they are sold they are no longer Polish jets.

 

[adc82140]

As I noted above - they said that no Polish aircraft would be sent to Ukraine. However, once they are sold they are no longer Polish jets.

Yet it's being reported now that the US were not forewarned about the announcement.

Poland's decision to put all its Russian MIG-29 jets at the disposal of the US was not pre-consulted with Washington, State Department Undersecretary Victoria Nuland said on Tuesday, even though the administration had been discussing Ukraine's broader request for Polish
aircraft.

"To my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us," she said at a hearing of Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "I look forward when this hearing is over to getting back to my desk and seeing how we will respond to this proposal of theirs to give the planes to us," she said.

As it happened: Biden announces ban on Russian oil imports over Ukraine invasion

President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced a ban on US imports of oil from Russia in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The US decision came as the UN on Tuesday said the number of refugees fleeing…

www.france24.com

 

[Busaholic]

We may be hopeful that Putin's successor is not so blindly revanchist. Putin will not be here in 5-10 years.

I lived for decades, successively, with two people who had Parkinson's Disease, one of whom was my mother, and I'm fairly certain that Putin is a sufferer. Both died suddenly following brain haemorrhages, so it seems to me entirely possible that Putin might go that way. If he did, his death might well be concealed for weeks or even months, like happened with Mao Tse Tung.

 

[DustyBin]

An FSB whistleblower has revealed many were kept in the dark about the invasion, and believes it will be "a total failure":

This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says

Spies in Russia’s infamous security apparatus were kept in the dark about President Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine, according to a whistleblower who described

www.thetimes.co.uk

The article is paywalled but somebody on another forum posted a link to what I presume is the original leaked letter a few days ago. I obviously didn’t know if it was genuine but hopefully there’s been a bit of “fact checking” by now. The letter is rather long and sets out, in great detail, what an utter shambles this invasion is.

 

[Shrop]

For the benefit of those who are pointing out that Ukraine is a divided country. BBC news this evening showed that 99,300 people from Ukraine have fled to Russia (so far), while 453 have fled to Belarus. Meanwhile 83,000 have fled to Moldova, 82,000 to Romania, 191,000 to Hungary, 141,000 to Slovakia, 1,204,000 to Poland, and 210,000 to other European countries.
So the division as at early evening today was roughly 20 to 1 in favour of non-Russian places to head to.

 

[3rd rail land]

For the benefit of those who are pointing out that Ukraine is a divided country. BBC news this evening showed that 99,300 people from Ukraine have fled to Russia (so far), while 453 have fled to Belarus. Meanwhile 83,000 have fled to Moldova, 82,000 to Romania, 191,000 to Hungary, 141,000 to Slovakia, 1,204,000 to Poland, and 210,000 to other European countries.
So the division as at early evening today was roughly 20 to 1 in favour of non-Russian places to head to.

I don't understand why people are fleeing to Russia but I guess anything is better than staying put right now.

 

[DustyBin]

For the benefit of those who are pointing out that Ukraine is a divided country. BBC news this evening showed that 99,300 people from Ukraine have fled to Russia (so far), while 453 have fled to Belarus. Meanwhile 83,000 have fled to Moldova, 82,000 to Romania, 191,000 to Hungary, 141,000 to Slovakia, 1,204,000 to Poland, and 210,000 to other European countries.
So the division as at early evening today was roughly 20 to 1 in favour of non-Russian places to head to.

I honestly don’t know how divided the country really is, but those figures may not tell the full story. The (allegedly) pro-Russian breakaway regions to the east aren’t under attack, so I suspect few if any people are fleeing from them.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I don't understand why people are fleeing to Russia but I guess anything is better than staying put right now.

Presumably these are mostly ethnic Russians.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Mar 2022 ==

I honestly don’t know how divided the country really is, but those figures may not tell the full story. The (allegedly) pro-Russian breakaway regions to the east aren’t under attack, so I suspect few if any people are fleeing from them.

I agree.

 

[Shrop]

I honestly don’t know how divided the country really is, but those figures may not tell the full story. The (allegedly) pro-Russian breakaway regions to the east aren’t under attack, so I suspect few if any people are fleeing from them.

That could be the 99,300, but it's more likely that any assessment would be pretty inexact.

 

[bspahh]

The article is paywalled but somebody on another forum posted a link to what I presume is the original leaked letter a few days ago. I obviously didn’t know if it was genuine but hopefully there’s been a bit of “fact checking” by now. The letter is rather long and sets out, in great detail, what an utter shambles this invasion is.

There are quotes from the text here:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html

 

[Cloud Strife]

One thing that hasn't been widely reported in the English media are the videos coming out of Kyiv. There are many, many people making videos with Molotov cocktails, essentially inviting the Russians to come in if they think they're hard enough. With conventional wisdom saying that you need 5 invaders to defeat one defender in an urban environment, Putin and the Russian military leadership must be well aware that any attempt to take Kyiv is going to be an absolute bloodbath of Russian forces.

 

[brad465]

One thing that hasn't been widely reported in the English media are the videos coming out of Kyiv. There are many, many people making videos with Molotov cocktails, essentially inviting the Russians to come in if they think they're hard enough. With conventional wisdom saying that you need 5 invaders to defeat one defender in an urban environment, Putin and the Russian military leadership must be well aware that any attempt to take Kyiv is going to be an absolute bloodbath of Russian forces.

They'll probably resort to making Kyiv "Grozny II", if they have enough artillery weapons left to do that.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

They'll probably resort to making Kyiv "Grozny II", if they have enough artillery weapons left to do that.

The leaked FSB analysis suggests Putin might conceivably use a battlefield nuclear strike; this is just where, in his own twisted way, it might make sense to do so. Destroy the ultimate rallying point for Ukrainian nationalists at the same time as eliminating much of the current government while also rendering the area uninhabitable for a while. It also removes the inconvenience of a large settlement straddling the Dnieper river, an obvious potential natural boundary for a partitioned Ukraine if that's what Putin feels is necessary to create a permanent buffer between Russia and the NATO block. Scares me that I can even contemplate this.

 

[takno]

I don't understand why people are fleeing to Russia but I guess anything is better than staying put right now.

That may include the fairly large group of people who were "fleed" into buses and forcibly evacuated to Russia before the invasion even started

 

[Noddy]

The leaked FSB analysis suggests Putin might conceivably use a battlefield nuclear strike; this is just where, in his own twisted way, it might make sense to do so. Destroy the ultimate rallying point for Ukrainian nationalists at the same time as eliminating much of the current government while also rendering the area uninhabitable for a while. It also removes the inconvenience of a large settlement straddling the Dnieper river, an obvious potential natural boundary for a partitioned Ukraine if that's what Putin feels is necessary to create a permanent buffer between Russia and the NATO block. Scares me that I can even contemplate this.

Yes but if Putin was to do this it would be saying good bye to any support he does have from the rest of the world. China aren’t going to standby and go ok, you just nuked another country but we’ll continue to abstain at the UN and buy your oil. No way.

Plus IF the report is to be believed (and we have to be seriously sceptical) it actually places a huge amount of doubt on whether the Russian bombs would actually work, and certainly whether Putin would be able or willing to go full scale nuclear:

To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world. First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems. I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.

Before the war I would have been extremely surprised at the possibility that Russian bombs didn’t work. However given all we have seen of the complete ineptitude of the ‘mighty’ Russian army and state over the last couple of weeks, I now think that this is actually possible.

 

[Pete_uk]

I believe that Kyiv would be flattened in time but I couldn't see nukes being used. If you excuse the pun, god only knows what the fallout would be.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Presumably these are mostly ethnic Russians.

And presumably not merely ethnic Russians, but ethnic Russians who were already living in the separatist-controlled areas in Donbas, at least some of whom were probably forcefully bussed to Russia by the separatists, without being given a choice.

 

[dosxuk]

Remember a load of the people from that area were evacuated from the "genocide being performed by the Ukrainians" that even the Russians seemed to give up trying to convince the world it was happening.

 

[Shrop]

A lot of us are concerned, with good reason, about Russian propaganda feeding their people with stories which are very different to those that we hear. However, there are two things about our own media which have surprised me in the last 24 hours, namely ...

1. The UK news is generally more obsessed with politics than it is about anything else, and for the last 2 weeks every bulletin has been primarily about the Ukraine. So how come, when the Ukranian President addressed Parliament yesterday afternoon, the BBC didn't even cover it until at least halfway through the 6 o clock news? Wouldn't you have thought it would have been the first item?

2. A small group of people with military training are heading to the Ukraine due to their conscience, but not as soldiers. This has huge implications for how Putin could use this as propaganda, and even an excuse to ramp up the war, so it would surely be best to keep this as quiet as possible. (I'm only saying this on here since it's already out there big time). Thus our media seems more interested in just having another story to sell, than they are about the security of our country. Going on about this in mainstream media is surely the wrong thing to do!

 

[brad465]

A reminder that taking parts of Ukraine is only one part of the challenge for Russian forces:

'We are not co-operating': Life in occupied Ukraine

Ukrainian cities are now occupied by Russian troops, and residents are not making them feel welcome.

www.bbc.co.uk

In the southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol on Monday, the mayor Ivan Federov sat down at his desk to send out his daily Facebook update.
He told his followers that the Russians forces occupying the city had now taken control of the city's communications network, so they needed to be wary of what they heard on TV and the radio.
How many people would see his warning, he didn't know. Melitopol's internet connection had also all but disappeared, making it nearly impossible to reach people inside by WhatsApp or Telegram call, or stay connected for more than a few minutes.
The ordinary phone lines were no longer an option, Federov told the BBC, when the Telegram app finally connected. "We cannot use," he said. "Too easy for the Russians to listen in."
When the invading forces took control of Melitopol a week ago they ransacked the mayor's offices, Federov said, exiling his team to another location where they are attempting to continue running their city.
"We are not co-operating with the Russians in any way," Federov said emphatically. "They have not tried to help us, they cannot help us, and we do not want their help."
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has claimed he is liberating historically Russian lands and speakers from a Nazi regime. But in Melitopol and a string of other mainly-Russian speaking southern and eastern cities, his forces have found themselves treated as occupiers.

"There are protests in Melitopol every day," said Yuliya Kovaliova, 33, who before the invasion helped run her family business of electronics stores.
"At some point the Russian army started shooting at us and one man got shot but we have not stopped protesting," Kovaliova said. "We are not afraid to protest because we are together. We are afraid to walk alone at night, but we are not afraid to protest."
About 5,000 people gathered in Melitopol's central square on Tuesday, Federov reckoned, despite the shooting last week, which wounded a man in the leg. Videos have surfaced showing protests in occupied and part-occupied cities and towns across the region - Kherson, Berdyansk, Starobilsk, Novopskov. The BBC reached residents and local mayors to try to understand the situation inside.
"I don't know how to count the number of people protesting, I thought it was 2,000 at least," said Yunona, a 29-year-old IT worker in the southern city of Kherson. "One of our friends was beaten and taken by the Russian soldiers and people got so angry they chased the occupiers down the street and took him back."
The Russian troops in Kherson looked young and uncertain, said Olha, a 63-year-old English teacher. "We go to the protests every day and they are close to us but they look afraid," she said. "We are all just waiting for the Ukrainian army to kick them out."

 

[AlterEgo]

A reminder that taking parts of Ukraine is only one part of the challenge for Russian forces:

'We are not co-operating': Life in occupied Ukraine

Ukrainian cities are now occupied by Russian troops, and residents are not making them feel welcome.

www.bbc.co.uk

Indeed. And just now, Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, said "The purpose of the special operation isn't to replace the current government there".

Their "purpose" is so woefully unclear and changes hour by hour it is hard not to occasionally feel sorry for the soldiers sent in by this complete rabble. A catastrophe which has quickly unfurled. I expect Kiev to fall in a week or two and the endgame to be played out across a long table with signatures.

The most significant loss for Russia is exposing its military for the world to see on television in a full scale war and seeing the grotesque mistakes they are making. Horribly unprofessional and it has weakened Russia's hard power as well as eviscerating any soft power it had.

 

[TheEdge]

The most significant loss for Russia is exposing its military for the world to see on television in a full scale war and seeing the grotesque mistakes they are making. Horribly unprofessional and it has weakened Russia's hard power as well as eviscerating any soft power it had.

This is far bigger damage to Russia than anything current. A few weeks ago there was the fear they'd take Ukraine, then be able to mount an operation against the Baltic states, or threaten Sweden and or Finland. Now, yea, nea, they can't do that. All his nuclear threats and you have to wonder what state that equipment is in.

 

[AlterEgo]

This is far bigger damage to Russia than anything current. A few weeks ago there was the fear they'd take Ukraine, then be able to mount an operation against the Baltic states, or threaten Sweden and or Finland. Now, yea, nea, they can't do that. All his nuclear threats and you have to wonder what state that equipment is in.

The fear of course is Putin packs up in Ukraine and prepares for the next war. But no target is as juicy as Ukraine - where will he go? Finland? Difficult to win there, and why? It's not the "cradle of Rus" that Kiev apparently is to him. Baltic states? I doubt it. I suspect he respects the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk - at least in respect of the Baltics - and of course they are NATO members which provides additional deterrent.

Russian reorganisation may take a very long time; their greatest weakness is a lack of willingness to delegate authority and executive power to troops, probably for fear of a lack of will among junior soldiers and young officers. It is a cultural problem and the West should take heart at how poorly oiled the Russian war machine really is.

 

[Chingy]

It's worth noting that Russia only have circa 20% of their active forces in Ukraine currently.

That leaves 80% still elsewhere. Question being, why?

 

[AlterEgo]

It's worth noting that Russia only have circa 20% of their active forces in Ukraine currently.

That leaves 80% still elsewhere. Question being, why?

I've seen this discussed elsewhere, fascinating question.

Worth remembering that Russia is extremely large and requires a large defence force to garrison effectively, so there's that - plus the fact Russia has increased its risk of invasion or retaliation by starting a war, so they may be reluctant to thin out the line. They also have current presences in the Caucasus and, I think, still in Syria. And, as we may well suspect, much of the Russian capability is...perhaps unsuitable for combat.

 

[gg1]

It's worth noting that Russia only have circa 20% of their active forces in Ukraine currently.

That leaves 80% still elsewhere. Question being, why?

Either:

Putin wrongly thought that 20% would be sufficient to conquer Ukraine.

or

Russia has lied about the total size of their armed forces (or at least those capable of and ready for combat) and the numbers committed actually represent significantly more than 20% of the total.

 

[dosxuk]

2. A small group of people with military training are heading to the Ukraine due to their conscience, but not as soldiers. This has huge implications for how Putin could use this as propaganda, and even an excuse to ramp up the war, so it would surely be best to keep this as quiet as possible. (I'm only saying this on here since it's already out there big time). Thus our media seems more interested in just having another story to sell, than they are about the security of our country. Going on about this in mainstream media is surely the wrong thing to do!

Remember there is a flip side to publishing this information - by publicly saying they're not part of British forces, we are also clearly saying to Putin "if you spot someone fighting in Ukraine with a British flag on their uniform, they're there because they chose to be there, not because we sent them". Sure he can use it as propaganda, but it also helps calm things down a bit if they do capture a Brit fighting over there. If Putin wanted the idea of Brits fighting over there as an excuse to raise the stakes, he can do that without anyone actually being there (it's very difficult for us to prove that no Brits are involved). What he needs for propaganda to work, is someone in British uniform visibly involved or captured, and by us publishing that they're not part of our forces, we've just stuck a pin in that option.

(besides, I'd be very surprised if we didn't have actual operations going on inside Ukraine right now, not fighting directly against the Russians, but gathering intelligence, sabotaging and monitoring - that sort of thing. By shouting about how any Brits fighting over there are just on their own, it will back up any cover stories that might be needed)

 

[bspahh]

It's worth noting that Russia only have circa 20% of their active forces in Ukraine currently.

That leaves 80% still elsewhere. Question being, why?

If they are struggling to get supplies to the forces that are already there, would it help to add more?

Do you have a source for the 20% figure? This is a post on twitter
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1501357989428535296 says:

Most sources agree Russia arrayed up to 190K troops around Ukraine before the invasion. Open sources note that the size of the Russian ground forces sits at 340K (incl paratroops). Therefore, Russian committed around 55% of their total ground forces to Ukraine.

That was written by "Mick Ryan" https://mickryan.com.au/ukraine-commentary who seems plausible at first glance.

 

[Ediswan]

2. A small group of people with military training are heading to the Ukraine due to their conscience, but not as soldiers. This has huge implications for how Putin could use this as propaganda, and even an excuse to ramp up the war, so it would surely be best to keep this as quiet as possible. (I'm only saying this on here since it's already out there big time). Thus our media seems more interested in just having another story to sell, than they are about the security of our country. Going on about this in mainstream media is surely the wrong thing to do!

The UK has a system for requesting the press not to publish or broadcast on specific subjects. It has not been used here. The subject is still active in news reports.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DSMA-Notice