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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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Acfb

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Westminster Voting Intention (7 Mar): Labour 40% (+2) Conservative 37% (+2) Liberal Democrat 10% (-2) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 4% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-2) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 28 Feb

Tories are recovering quite strongly in the polls although it could just be a temporary Ukraine bounce.

Johnson also leading Starmer again as best PM

Johnson and Sunak also now level on best PM
 
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Typhoon

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Westminster Voting Intention (7 Mar): Labour 40% (+2) Conservative 37% (+2) Liberal Democrat 10% (-2) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 4% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-2) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 28 Feb

Tories are recovering quite strongly in the polls although it could just be a temporary Ukraine bounce.

Johnson also leading Starmer again as best PM

Johnson and Sunak also now level on best PM
Crunch time will come after the fuel and NI rises come into effect

Can I ask which poll that is?

I've found a YouGov poll (24th Feb) which gives Johnson on 26% to Starmer on 34%.
In more detail, the same organisation gives 56% as disliking Johnson.
They also carried out a poll on 4th March as to which team would be best at dealing with the Ukraine invasion. Conservatives led by Johnson and 'Neither' are level with 27%. Labour led by Starmer are on 20%.
Unfortunately, I suspect some voters still associate Russia with communism, certain Labour MPs have done nothing to help the cause. I would have been interested in the result if they had asked the approval rate of the Conservatives led by someone else.
'
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/more-bri...I4tsVa7wO2jAJM-ssis5CFrVVz486rnxMGcX7pm77bY1z
 

jon0844

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Tories are recovering quite strongly in the polls although it could just be a temporary Ukraine bounce.

Did they only survey Russian oligarchs? Can't see how anyone can think our Government is doing much compared to the rest of the world in dealing with the Russia/Ukraine situation.

I mean Nadine Dorries couldn't even spell Ukraine correctly.
 

Acfb

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Crunch time will come after the fuel and NI rises come into effect

Can I ask which poll that is?

I've found a YouGov poll (24th Feb) which gives Johnson on 26% to Starmer on 34%.
In more detail, the same organisation gives 56% as disliking Johnson.
They also carried out a poll on 4th March as to which team would be best at dealing with the Ukraine invasion. Conservatives led by Johnson and 'Neither' are level with 27%. Labour led by Starmer are on 20%.
Unfortunately, I suspect some voters still associate Russia with communism, certain Labour MPs have done nothing to help the cause. I would have been interested in the result if they had asked the approval rate of the Conservatives led by someone else.
'
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/more-bri...I4tsVa7wO2jAJM-ssis5CFrVVz486rnxMGcX7pm77bY1z

Redfield and Wilton - they come out every Monday at 5PM.
 

brad465

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Crunch time will come after the fuel and NI rises come into effect
Yes I think the NI rise in particular will be significant, along with any council tax rises around the same time. One can argue about global issues influencing fuel cost increases, regardless of how much they do or don't have an effect, but tax rises are domestic policy that can be prevented.
 

jon0844

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It's going to be the perfect storm. Fuel prices have risen massively this week (and may continue for a bit), energy bills are going to shoot up next month for most people, NI kicks in, phone bills and Internet services will go up, Sky is putting up prices, food is going up (and product sizes are going down) and council tax and local police funding will rise. Mortgages have already gone up for anyone on variable rates, and I guess loans will get more expensive.

A lot of people are going to have cut back on things to survive - which will have a knock-on effect on the economy.

If Boris can get by with accusations of it being worse under Labour, I think this country is doomed! For one, he isn't talking of reducing duty or tax on fuel/energy bills which are things he could have done, even if only temporarily.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I'm still astonished that the Government has done so little to prepare people for all this. For most of the things that are going to hit people's pockets, there are legitimate reasons - most obviously the impact of Covid on the nation's finances, and the fuel shortages and other problems caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine (and supply problems before then). Although it's going to be tough for a lot of people, the Government could easily build a convincing (and to a large extent correct) narrative about it being unavoidable external events, which most people would probably accept - after all we have had some very obvious crises. But the Government seem to have totally taken their eye off the ball in terms of messaging.
 

Typhoon

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Redfield and Wilton - they come out every Monday at 5PM.
Thanks
Yes I think the NI rise in particular will be significant, along with any council tax rises around the same time. One can argue about global issues influencing fuel cost increases, regardless of how much they do or don't have an effect, but tax rises are domestic policy that can be prevented.
It's going to be the perfect storm. Fuel prices have risen massively this week (and may continue for a bit), energy bills are going to shoot up next month for most people, NI kicks in, phone bills and Internet services will go up, Sky is putting up prices, food is going up (and product sizes are going down) and council tax and local police funding will rise. Mortgages have already gone up for anyone on variable rates, and I guess loans will get more expensive.
I'm not sure that most people will see beyond having a lot less spending money in their purse of wallet. Just as Labour were bashed for the 2008 financial crisis, I expect the Conservatives to be bashed on this - voters staying away in May. It won't help them in the short term that the £200 fuel allowance does not kick in until October (although it was probably the right time with even higher fuel prices expected then).
The local police funding is interesting - mine is now higher than that for my local council. I can see what the latter does, I've just had a bin emptied, I can't remember last time I saw a police officer, we don't even get a piece of paper saying who our PCSO is anymore.

There will also be those who cannot get hospital appointments or whose operations have been held back, as time passes 'Covid' will no longer suffice as an excuse. In truth, it will take a long time to recover but those in pain won't necessarily see that. Right now the Sunlit Uplands have disappeared into a thick cloud and it will take more than a few three word slogans to get back on track.
 
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Busaholic

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I'm still astonished that the Government has done so little to prepare people for all this. For most of the things that are going to hit people's pockets, there are legitimate reasons - most obviously the impact of Covid on the nation's finances, and the fuel shortages and other problems caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine (and supply problems before then). Although it's going to be tough for a lot of people, the Government could easily build a convincing (and to a large extent correct) narrative about it being unavoidable external events, which most people would probably accept - after all we have had some very obvious crises. But the Government seem to have totally taken their eye off the ball in terms of messaging.
It should be astonishing, but I can't say I'm astonished. Isn't the natural Johnson way just to bury his head in the sand and pretend it isn't happening? So long as he's in notional charge of the country is all that concerns him: in that respect, he differs little from Putin. As for the messaging, haven't all the professional messagers been sacrificed or left of their own accord?!
 

jon0844

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I guess Boris can blame Covid and now that is 'going away' the Ukraine situation takes over as a reason for all our problems. It certainly helps deflect attention away from Brexit for a bit (possibly months or years).
 

DynamicSpirit

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I guess Boris can blame Covid and now that is 'going away' the Ukraine situation takes over as a reason for all our problems. It certainly helps deflect attention away from Brexit for a bit (possibly months or years).

I wouldn't say Ukraine is causing all our problems, but it is certainly likely to be a huge (and possibly the biggest) contributor to our problems in the months to come, just as Covid has been over the last couple of years. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.

(EDITED: Major typo on would/wouldn't. Thanks @Typhoon for pointing that out)
 
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MattRat

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I would say Ukraine is causing all our problems, but it is certainly likely to be a huge (and possibly the biggest) contributor to our problems in the months to come, just as Covid has been over the last couple of years. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.
But they aren't doing anything to cushion the blow. They act like the well being of their citizens isn't their problem. Whose problem is it then, if not the government's?
 

AlterEgo

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I wouldn't say Ukraine is causing all our problems, but it is certainly likely to be a huge (and possibly the biggest) contributor to our problems in the months to come, just as Covid has been over the last couple of years. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.

(EDITED: Major typo on would/wouldn't. Thanks @Typhoon for pointing that out)
Ukraine is going to cause the cost of living crisis to really pinch. Once this starts hitting the middle classes Johnson has a problem, deflection or not.
 

jon0844

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I wouldn't say Ukraine is causing all our problems, but it is certainly likely to be a huge (and possibly the biggest) contributor to our problems in the months to come, just as Covid has been over the last couple of years. It's absurd to pretend otherwise.

(EDITED: Major typo on would/wouldn't. Thanks @Typhoon for pointing that out)

Of course it's going to have a massive impact on already sky high energy prices, but I don't think the Government has EVER acknowledged Brexit to be at fault for anything - hence we move from Covid to Ukraine, and Boris can distance himself and play innocent. Neither is really within his control, so we should all just accept he's done the best he can.

Just as back in 2008, it was a global financial crisis and therefore nothing we could have done (besides encouraging irresponsible lending because people getting new homes, cars and goods on credit were likely to be happier).
 
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DynamicSpirit

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Of course it's going to have a massive impact on already sky high energy prices, but I don't think the Government has EVER acknowledged Brexit to be at fault for anything - hence we move from Covid to Ukraine, and Boris can distance himself and play innocent. Neither is really within his control, so we should all just accept he's done the best he can.

Sure, I suspect you're correct that the Government probably haven't acknowledged the reality that Brexit has caused a lot of problems. And yes, that's regrettable. But that doesn't justify going to the opposite (equally wrong) extreme of blaming Brexit for all our ills, while failing to acknowledge that (a) Brexit has also brought some benefits, and (b) the cost-of-living problems starting to hit are caused mostly by Covid and Putin, with Brexit probably only contributing a small amount. I think the point stands that the cost of living crisis is caused mainly (though not entirely) by things that were outside the Government's control.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

But they aren't doing anything to cushion the blow. They act like the well being of their citizens isn't their problem. Whose problem is it then, if not the government's?

To some extent, I agree, the Government could do some things to cushion the blow. Maybe a bit more targetted support for the most vulnerable. But there is a rather obvious constraint that we can't keep forever adding more and more to the national debt, which probably limits the scope for manoevre (especially now it's painfully obvious that we urgently need to increase defence spending).
 

The Ham

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Sure, I suspect you're correct that the Government probably haven't acknowledged the reality that Brexit has caused a lot of problems. And yes, that's regrettable. But that doesn't justify going to the opposite (equally wrong) extreme of blaming Brexit for all our ills, while failing to acknowledge that (a) Brexit has also brought some benefits, and (b) the cost-of-living problems starting to hit are caused mostly by Covid and Putin, with Brexit probably only contributing a small amount. I think the point stands that the cost of living crisis is caused mainly (though not entirely) by things that were outside the Government's control

Brexit benefits like Happy Fish (one of the short list of items cited by Rees Mogg when asked about it in parliament).

Joking aside whilst the cost of living is mostly from external factors there could have been more done to reduce the impact.

For instance keeping in place support for solar panels and better insulation would have meant that more people would have had them and so whilst their energy costs would have increased by the same percentages the real increases would have been smaller (i.e double £100 is £200, whilst double £90 is £180). However with more progress having been made on reducing our carbon emissions it would have also been easier to reduce the extra charges on our household energy bills for green incentives further reducing the overall impact.

Likewise if there had been continued support for public transport (rather than cuts since 2010) it would have aided in slowing the rate of growth in car ownership. Again limiting the impact (a good example of this is just how much school bus provision had been under attack, where even a cheap bus pass is often cheaper than the fuel for the parents).

Likewise it highlights the shortsightedness of not continuing with more electrification.

Now whilst some of that may have required higher council taxes, there would likely have been savings to some in that they wouldn't have had to have been making payments for using services which previously were free (given the extra staff time in dealing with payments and transaction fees reduce the overall benefit of those payments compared to mass collection of taxes).

It's been said for some time, although environmental concerns had been rightly highlighted in greater amounts of late, that the West tends to have to rely on the sorts of places for it's oil that we'd rather not have to rely on. As such this is just a fairly predicable outcome on not decarbonising our economy more over the last 30 years.

Yes it would have been more expensive that what we did at the time, however chances are those savings could fairly rapidly get wiped out.

For instance if 10 years ago my fuel bill has been 25% more to provide green measures that would have cost me about £16/month (or about £2,000 over that 10 year period), in the next 12 months fuel costs are likely to be half that figure based on the unlikely event that there's no extra fuel increases in October.

Yes there would still have been cost increases, however the impact would have been a lot less with a lower reliance on gas. Chances are we'd have seen some significant more tidal generation coming online, which would be able to provide the baseload required to protect against still cloudy days. However with a higher uptake over a longer timeframe the reduction in costs we've seen would have happened (possibly sooner) and benefiting far more people with reductions in their energy bills (probably so that the extra costs were offset by the savings).

According to a BBC article we'd only need to have reduced our gas and oil use by 6% to be in a position where we wouldn't have needed any from Russia (the reality is that we'd have been using it and so there would still have to be cuts, but busy not as much). If it had allowed a 10% fall it would have eased things for others in the EU, even if they hadn't gone as far as we had.

That sort of change (even a 10% fall in hydrocarbon use) should have been possible without too much of an impact.

However where it would have likely made a bigger impact would have been that other nations would have potentially followed suit sooner which could have resulted in lower oil prices following the pandemic. Which in turn could have meant a weaker Russian economy, which would have meant they were less likely to have had the military spending to invade.

It's likely one of the reasons that they are invading now, as if they waited even 5 years we'd have a lot more electric cars and so oil would be less of an issue. Likewise many more would have got solar and heat pumps reducing our need for gas.
 

DynamicSpirit

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For instance keeping in place support for solar panels and better insulation would have meant that more people would have had them and so whilst their energy costs would have increased by the same percentages the real increases would have been smaller (i.e double £100 is £200, whilst double £90 is £180). However with more progress having been made on reducing our carbon emissions it would have also been easier to reduce the extra charges on our household energy bills for green incentives further reducing the overall impact.

Likewise if there had been continued support for public transport (rather than cuts since 2010) it would have aided in slowing the rate of growth in car ownership. Again limiting the impact (a good example of this is just how much school bus provision had been under attack, where even a cheap bus pass is often cheaper than the fuel for the parents).

I agree with your post to the extent that we should have been doing much more on reducing energy use/pushing for more renewable energy/etc., But those are decisions that would need to have been made 5-10 years ago in order to have any noticeable impact today. It therefore doesn't answer the question of what the Government could do *now* in order to ease the cost of living crisis, given that we are where we are.

Also bear in mind that the prices of fuel tend to be determined by international markets (because we can't really cut ourselves off from Europe completely in terms of buying/selling fuel). Therefore, even if we had reduced demand in the UK enough that we needed to import no Russian gas, the impact on prices that we pay would have been tiny. (Would still be a good thing for security/environmental reasons but wouldn't help that much with the cost of living crisis)
 

nw1

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Sure, I suspect you're correct that the Government probably haven't acknowledged the reality that Brexit has caused a lot of problems. And yes, that's regrettable. But that doesn't justify going to the opposite (equally wrong) extreme of blaming Brexit for all our ills, while failing to acknowledge that (a) Brexit has also brought some benefits, and (b) the cost-of-living problems starting to hit are caused mostly by Covid and Putin, with Brexit probably only contributing a small amount. I think the point stands that the cost of living crisis is caused mainly (though not entirely) by things that were outside the Government's control.
While I agree with b), and that, without a doubt, Putin and the after-effects of Covid are the main source of the current problems, I will say that I am struggling to find any significant advantages to Brexit. Certainly the disadvantages (more bureaucracy with trade, more bureaucracy with immigration and emigration with loss of long-standing automatic freedom-of-movement rights) are absolutely massive, regressive, and hugely outweigh any supposed advantages.
 
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edwin_m

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While I agree with b), and that, without a doubt, Putin and the after-effects of Covid are the main source of the current problems, I will say that I am struggling to find any significant advantages to Brexit. Certainly the disadvantages (more bureaucracy with trade, more bureaucracy with immigration and emigration with loss of long-standing automatic freedom-of-movement rights) are absolutely massive, regressive, and hugely outweigh any supposed advantages.
It also sends the wrong message to the likes of Putin, who has probably concluded from event such as Trump and Brexit (both of which he allegedly boosted by covert means) that the west is divided and will not stand up to him. If he hadn't thought that then maybe the invasion wouldn't have happened.
 

AlterEgo

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It also sends the wrong message to the likes of Putin, who has probably concluded from event such as Trump and Brexit (both of which he allegedly boosted by covert means) that the west is divided and will not stand up to him. If he hadn't thought that then maybe the invasion wouldn't have happened.
Putin has exploited a sloppy, comfortable Europe. Britain’s division from it and its unilateral decision to arm the people of Ukraine are a benefit of Brexit and not what Putin wants at all. EU defence policy is almost laughable.
 

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2008 - Banks collapse. Neoliberalism fails. Central Banks print money in respective countries, taxpayer bails out failing system, and is made to repay through austerity and/or tax rises, inequality deepens, populism results.

2020 - Covid strikes. Neoliberalism fails. Central Banks print money in respective countries, taxpayer bails out failing system, and will be made to repay through austerity and/or tax rises, inequality deepens, populists take advantage.

2022 - Russia invades Ukraine. Neoliberalism fails. [Prediction] Central Banks reduce monetary tightening, taxpayer bails out failing businesses and financial support for those hard hit by commodity surges, inequality deepens, populists look for opportunities to take advantage.

Every crisis we go through is being made worse by our failing neoliberal economic model, and in some cases that system is the cause of the crisis. Any party that champions/maintains the failing system is complicit in causing the crisis, including all Tory Governments since Thatcher, and New Labour as well. 2008 in particular should have been the wake up call to radically change our way of doing things, like the level of change FDR brought about in the 30s. The populist Tory party we have now, and the Populist left under Corbyn, are symptoms of the 'life support' that exists that has deepened inequality in this country and much of the West.

The invasion of Ukraine was indirectly caused by neoliberalism, particularly the unchecked globalisation aspect of it, where for the sake of profit/costs much of Europe and other parts of the West relied on Russia for cheap oil and gas imports, without thinking about how a dodgy regime could exploit their dependence for their own interests. In the UK, the Russian laundromat likely arose because we were desperate for growth and ended up being reliant on the property market for it, so the investment visa scheme was not regulated enough to stop dirty money coming in that has helped. A lot of difficult conversations need having about our future as a result of all this, and if the opposition can create the vision and change in our system needed to make progress and reverse the declines since 2008, then that's when things will go wrong for the Tories. At the moment though progress on that mark is slow and quiet.
 

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Putin has exploited a sloppy, comfortable Europe. Britain’s division from it and its unilateral decision to arm the people of Ukraine are a benefit of Brexit and not what Putin wants at all. EU defence policy is almost laughable.
My knowledge of EU defence policy is pretty close to zero so I don't know whether it is 'laughable' but it doesn't seem to have stopped some EU countries from contributing military aid. Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden are included in an article at https://www.msn.com/en-xl/africa/ot...,as field rations and body armour. More items.
I have seen Croatia, Denmark, Estonia and Finland quoted elsewhere. I suspect some countries bordering Russia might be reluctant to admit to providing such aid as this might cause Putin to start to point weapons towards them.

– Germany –

Berlin has broken a longstanding taboo of not exporting arms to conflict zones in vowing to send Ukraine 1,000 anti-tank weapons, 500 “Stinger” surface-to-air missiles and nine howitzers.

It is also donating 14 armoured vehicles and 10,000 tonnes of fuel.

– Sweden –

Stockholm is also breaking its historic neutral stance to send 5,000 anti-tank rockets to Ukraine as well as field rations and body armour.

It is the first time Sweden has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union invaded neighbouring Finland in 1939.

– France –

France, which has already sent help, is dispatching more military equipment as well as fuel.

Paris says it has acted on earlier Ukrainian requests for defensive anti-aircraft and digital weapons.

– Britain –

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he is committed to “provide further UK support to Ukraine in the coming days”, without specifying what it might be.

– Belgium –

Belgium says it will supply Ukraine with 3,000 more automatic rifles and 200 anti-tank weapons, as well as 3,800 tons of fuel.

– Netherlands –

The Dutch defence ministry says it is sending “200 Stinger missiles as soon as possible”, after a shipment Saturday of sniper rifles and helmets.

It adds to the 20 million euros ($22 million) of humanitarian aid it has already promised.

– Czech Republic –

Prague said Saturday it is sending 4,000 mortars “in the next few hours” as well as an arsenal of 30,000 pistols, 7,000 assault rifles, 3,000 machine guns as well as scores of sniper rifles and a million bullets.

The Czechs had already promised Kyiv 4,000 mortars worth 1.5 million euros ($1.6 million) which have yet to be delivered.

– Italy –

Rome has sent 110 million euros ($123 million) in immediate aid to the Ukrainian government as “a concrete sign of our support,” Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio tweeted.

– Portugal –

Portugal is giving Ukraine night vision goggles, bulletproof vest, helmets, grenades, ammunition and automatic G3 rifles.

– Greece –

Greece, which has a large community in Ukraine — 10 of whom have been killed with many more in the firing line — is sending “defence equipment” as well as humanitarian aid.

– Romania –

Bucharest – which shares a border with Ukraine – is offering to treat the wounded in its 11 military hospitals as well as sending fuel, bulletproof vests, helmets and other “military material” worth three million euros ($3.3 million).

– Spain –

Madrid has promised to send 20 tonnes of aid to Ukraine, mostly medical and defensive equipment such as bulletproof vests.
 

AlterEgo

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My knowledge of EU defence policy is pretty close to zero so I don't know whether it is 'laughable' but it doesn't seem to have stopped some EU countries from contributing military aid. Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden are included in an article at https://www.msn.com/en-xl/africa/other/full-list-15-countries-sending-arms-to-ukraine-since-russia-s-invasion/ar-AAUpC19#:~:text=Full list: 15 countries sending arms to Ukraine,as field rations and body armour. More items.
I have seen Croatia, Denmark, Estonia and Finland quoted elsewhere. I suspect some countries bordering Russia might be reluctant to admit to providing such aid as this might cause Putin to start to point weapons towards them.
Ask the Ukrainians who their best ally is and who sent the kit first - which has been deleting tanks and Russian soldiers from the very beginning of the conflict, and had been training their troops under OP ORBITAL since the Crimea crisis.

Brexit has nothing to do with Ukraine despite the regular "Putin wanted it" protests from arch-Remainers. There often seems to be a thing of "look at this crisis, I bet Brexit's made that worse, let me think how" rather than actually trying to look at the picture and figure out what, actually, is going on. Brexit gave Britain better freedom of diplomatic manoeuvre. We do not have to consider so heavily, for example, our German friends, who would not even let our aircraft traverse their airspace to deliver weapons.

Not everything about Brexit is bad. EU defence policy is woeful; CSDP is a failure, its mission in Ukraine was solely to increase the accountability of Ukraine's public servants and politicians as if this would be any sort of bulwark against 60,000 Russian troops on the border.
 

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Ask the Ukrainians who their best ally is and who sent the kit first - which has been deleting tanks and Russian soldiers from the very beginning of the conflict, and had been training their troops under OP ORBITAL since the Crimea crisis.

As an aside.. deleting tanks and Russian soldiers? I've heard that phrase in that context on the news too. How did that language appear, that we no longer destroy tanks and kill soldiers, we delete them? Have we now become cybermen... If we can persuade any Russian troops to swap sides, would that count as upgrading them? ;)

Language observation aside, I totally agree that the UK has been at the forefront of arming Ukraine and preparing them as best as possible for the invasion, and Brexit has been irrelevant in that regard.
 

Typhoon

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Ask the Ukrainians who their best ally is and who sent the kit first - which has been deleting tanks and Russian soldiers from the very beginning of the conflict, and had been training their troops under OP ORBITAL since the Crimea crisis.

Brexit has nothing to do with Ukraine despite the regular "Putin wanted it" protests from arch-Remainers. There often seems to be a thing of "look at this crisis, I bet Brexit's made that worse, let me think how" rather than actually trying to look at the picture and figure out what, actually, is going on. Brexit gave Britain better freedom of diplomatic manoeuvre. We do not have to consider so heavily, for example, our German friends, who would not even let our aircraft traverse their airspace to deliver weapons.

Not everything about Brexit is bad. EU defence policy is woeful; CSDP is a failure, its mission in Ukraine was solely to increase the accountability of Ukraine's public servants and politicians as if this would be any sort of bulwark against 60,000 Russian troops on the border.
My comment is in response to your statement "Britain’s division from it and its unilateral decision to arm the people of Ukraine are a benefit of Brexit" in #1580
I listed a number of EU countries that have stepped up to the plate. It appears to be nothing to do with Brexit, we could have done the same if we had remained. I did not say Brexit is bad but it appears to be irrelevant in this case.

As regards the term 'best ally', I am not certain it is a competition, many countries will do what they can and are doing so. Ukraine will doubtless accept any help they can get.
 

AlterEgo

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My comment is in response to your statement "Britain’s division from it and its unilateral decision to arm the people of Ukraine are a benefit of Brexit" in #1580
I listed a number of EU countries that have stepped up to the plate.
They have not stepped up to the plate anything like the UK did. Germany even stopped our aircraft flying over with weapons for Ukraine. Most of the EU was hopelessly slow to send aid of any kind. Britain has been at the forefront of the European response, we were there since 2014. Most EU nations were not. This is at least partly because we have a different and more independent diplomatic dynamic after Brexit. We do not have to worry about how our EU peers will view our actions so much, and we also don't get tainted with their failures when things don't work out.
As regards the term 'best ally', I am not certain it is a competition, many countries will do what they can and are doing so. Ukraine will doubtless accept any help they can get.
You can bet it would be a competition if Britain had been found to have sent, for example, 14 armoured vehicles and some diesel, or "just money", instead of sending elite forces like the Parachute Regiment to literally train the Ukrainian Army in military capacity building...consistently since 7 years ago until two weeks ago. And sending tank buster missiles from January onwards which have saved countless Ukrainian lives. We can do that because as a non-EU country it is less of a problem if Germany says nein to our aircraft overflying their airspace with weaponry.
 

brad465

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I don't think this will have wider Tory party ramifications at the moment, but I confess this point in time is the most confident I've felt about Patel losing her job, even though I'm still not confident overall. Sections of the wider party have turned on her in Parliament in recent days, coupled with the fact on the international stage the refugee crisis handling is frankly embarrassing, I think this would be the lowest her performance has appeared to the public (that's not to say this necessarily the lowest she's actually performed).
 

The Ham

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I agree with your post to the extent that we should have been doing much more on reducing energy use/pushing for more renewable energy/etc., But those are decisions that would need to have been made 5-10 years ago in order to have any noticeable impact today. It therefore doesn't answer the question of what the Government could do *now* in order to ease the cost of living crisis, given that we are where we are.

Also bear in mind that the prices of fuel tend to be determined by international markets (because we can't really cut ourselves off from Europe completely in terms of buying/selling fuel). Therefore, even if we had reduced demand in the UK enough that we needed to import no Russian gas, the impact on prices that we pay would have been tiny. (Would still be a good thing for security/environmental reasons but wouldn't help that much with the cost of living crisis)

Given that we're just about to come into a period were our need for gas is reducing due to warmer weather there is the potential to do some things to improve our energy efficiency before next winter.

The government could restart programs to insulate homes more. It can't be beyond the capacity of a competent government to work out who are likely to be those most deserving of better insulation. If nothing else review council housing stock.

On a personal level there's plenty of people who could do a little more. For instance walking to/from school two times a week could cut 2% of the fuel used by the average car (assuming 7,000 miles a year).

Likewise someone working 5 miles from home cycling twice an average of twice a month would cut about 3.5% from their car milage.

That also applies for those in electric cars, as if we reduced their use them there'll be less need for electricity (which could also reduce our need for gas to produce it).

We need to start thinking more like was the case in the past when the cost of lighting or homes was a greater percentage of our costs. We need to think, do I need the thermostat set at (say) 25, would it be equally comfortable if it was a little cooler? Could we walk or cycle more often? Is there a way to insulate or homes a little more (even if that's just some thicker curtains)? Are there does which is we closed would keep parts of our homes warmer?

That any of that is new to any of us, it's just with fuel prices rising the need to focus on doing the things that can save money becomes more important for those for whom it wasn't of concern before.
 

Typhoon

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They have not stepped up to the plate anything like the UK did. Germany even stopped our aircraft flying over with weapons for Ukraine. Most of the EU was hopelessly slow to send aid of any kind. Britain has been at the forefront of the European response, we were there since 2014. Most EU nations were not. This is at least partly because we have a different and more independent diplomatic dynamic after Brexit. We do not have to worry about how our EU peers will view our actions so much, and we also don't get tainted with their failures when things don't work out.
So we were in the forefront while we were in the EU!
You can bet it would be a competition if Britain had been found to have sent, for example, 14 armoured vehicles and some diesel, or "just money", instead of sending elite forces like the Parachute Regiment to literally train the Ukrainian Army in military capacity building...consistently since 7 years ago until two weeks ago. And sending tank buster missiles from January onwards which have saved countless Ukrainian lives. We can do that because as a non-EU country it is less of a problem if Germany says nein to our aircraft overflying their airspace with weaponry.
We all know why that is - and it wouldn't matter which country's air force it was.
As regards competition, I don't hear of anyone picking on Italy because their contribution, to my knowledge, has been only providing humanitarian aid.

I don't think we are going to agree over this but I really don't see our being in or out of the EU has made a ha'pence worth of difference to our response to Ukraine.
 

edwin_m

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EU defence policy is almost laughable.
And the UK Brexiters were very much against giving the EU a role in defence... so helping to keep it that way, if you happen to believe that the EU should be a defence organisation (which I don't - that's what NATO is for).
 
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