Are the high petrol prices helping the recovery of rail traffic?

[Failed Unit]

Let's look at reality - taking EMR, there is only ONE route with wholesale change now, Nottingham - Matlock which are starting from Derby. Apart from that there are a dozen or so service alterations out of the several hundred services EMR usually operates https://www.eastmidlandsrailway.co.uk/amended-timetable, so Bald Rick's statememt "for most routes the service is at Pre pandemic levels for most if not all the day" is spot on.

Nottingham - Mansfield? Norwich - Liverpool? Peterborough - Lincoln Leicester- Lincoln? really back to pre pandemic frequency? Don’t believe the press release compare the real timetables. How about London - Cambridge? The great Northern inners? compare the timetables. granted demand off peak isn’t there. Demand in the peak however is exceeding the current reduced service on great northern.

I would add TpE onto the list. Trying to use the Cleethorpes- Manchester route was it really 2 hourly most of the day pre-Covid? Northern are still not running Scunthorpe- Doncaster. Hardly going to encourage people to try rail with the high fuel prices. I don’t see any evidence in the areas I know people want to use trains that the service is even back at pre-December levels. Other operators such as GWR, ChilternRail, LNWR etc May be back but significant portions of the uk definitely are not.

 

[paul1609]

but, for most routes the service is at Pre pandemic levels for most if not all the day.

sure it isn’t for all routes, but those that aren’t back to normal, or close to it, are definitely the minority.


and there is lots of evidence that even where services are back to Pre covid levels, passenger numbers are not. This applies more to routes into London than elsewhere in the country, but then the clear majority of pre covid rail travel was into or within London.

On the South Coast the rail service is now diabolical. West of Chichester the service has been cut to two trains an hour but even then the trains are still subject to frequent cancellations because of crew shortages. Five years ago it was possible to get a train from Ashford to Southampton with one quite decent connection in Brighton. Now it a stopping service to Hampden Park, good connection for every stop to Brighton, 20 min wait for stopping service to Chichester, another 20 min wait for the Southampton train ex Vic. In the opposite direction there's also a 35 min connection at Hastings. Frankly the service is now unusable so I'll be driving.

 

[Failed Unit]

On the South Coast the rail service is now diabolical. West of Chichester the service has been cut to two trains an hour but even then the trains are still subject to frequent cancellations because of crew shortages. Five years ago it was possible to get a train from Ashford to Southampton with one quite decent connection in Brighton. Now it a stopping service to Hampden Park, good connection for every stop to Brighton, 20 min wait for stopping service to Chichester, another 20 min wait for the Southampton train ex Vic. In the opposite direction there's also a 35 min connection at Hastings. Frankly the service is now unusable so I'll be driving.

I think that is what people are missing, I have just looked up Avanci West Coast.

They now have 2tph to Manchester as an example. So you now have a longer journey because of an increase connection time. I have heard people mention that travelling from Mansfield now results in 50 minute connections. You can get a long way in a car in 50 minutes. Even where the time hasn't increase on some of my Lincolnshire journeys, the walk between Newark NorthGate and Newark Castle is not possible for many. I so far am lucky in the respect it isn't raining when I need to do it. But is a 1 mile walk going to entice people out the car.

I have noticed on certain services such as the 1730 (ish) Lincoln - Leicester (ex Grimsby) that it is often standing leaving Lincoln, but is that because of removed services either side of it or because demand is back.

Irrespective, 2 hours gaps again won't get people out their cars.

As for the buses, on the positive side for rail at least you have a better idea of what is going on. I wouldn't dare use the bus from Welwyn Garden City to Hemel Hempsted for example. The car gets stuck in the same traffic but you don't know if a bus is late / early or cancelled.

 

[miklcct]

I think that is what people are missing, I have just looked up Avanci West Coast.

They now have 2tph to Manchester as an example. So you now have a longer journey because of an increase connection time. I have heard people mention that travelling from Mansfield now results in 50 minute connections. You can get a long way in a car in 50 minutes. Even where the time hasn't increase on some of my Lincolnshire journeys, the walk between Newark NorthGate and Newark Castle is not possible for many. I so far am lucky in the respect it isn't raining when I need to do it. But is a 1 mile walk going to entice people out the car.

I have noticed on certain services such as the 1730 (ish) Lincoln - Leicester (ex Grimsby) that it is often standing leaving Lincoln, but is that because of removed services either side of it or because demand is back.

Irrespective, 2 hours gaps again won't get people out their cars.

As for the buses, on the positive side for rail at least you have a better idea of what is going on. I wouldn't dare use the bus from Welwyn Garden City to Hemel Hempsted for example. The car gets stuck in the same traffic but you don't know if a bus is late / early or cancelled.

The advantage of railway is speed rather than frequency. If a train takes 10 minutes and it takes 10-minute walk at both ends, while a car takes 40 minutes in the congested urban areas, a train is a big win.

 

[CBlue]

As for the buses, on the positive side for rail at least you have a better idea of what is going on. I wouldn't dare use the bus from Welwyn Garden City to Hemel Hempsted for example. The car gets stuck in the same traffic but you don't know if a bus is late / early or cancelled.

Not tried using bustimes.org or one of the tracking apps then? I find them no more or less accurate than railway departure boards at finding out what has happened to the bus I intend to catch - the idea there is no information on a late or cancelled bus service is rather false.

 

[AM9]

One good thing about rising petrol/diesel fuel costs is that it will reduce the number of unnecessary journeys on the roads. Of course some will continue to motor, even claiming that the roads are now clearer for them as the poorer motorists will reduce their mileage any maybe use rail for essential journeys, - a route to giving up their road vehicles because the overheads then exceed the 'savings' they might make on lower mileages.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not tried using bustimes.org or one of the tracking apps then? I find them no more or less accurate than railway departure boards at finding out what has happened to the bus I intend to catch - the idea there is no information on a late or cancelled bus service is rather false.

The problem with buses is that most operators don't do any manual intervention on the data, thus you have no way to know if a bus not being tracked is not being tracked because of a fault or because it's cancelled. This is quite significant.

There is also mostly no connection between incoming and outgoing services at a terminus.

 

[miklcct]

Not tried using bustimes.org or one of the tracking apps then? I find them no more or less accurate than railway departure boards at finding out what has happened to the bus I intend to catch - the idea there is no information on a late or cancelled bus service is rather false.

The route I used regularly didn't have real-time tracking for its initial 3 months of operation, neither on the company's app nor on bustimes.org, and it took me multiple complaints and escalations about its poor service to got it fixed.

 

[Bald Rick]

On the South Coast the rail service is now diabolical. West of Chichester the service has been cut to two trains an hour but even then the trains are still subject to frequent cancellations because of crew shortages. Five years ago it was possible to get a train from Ashford to Southampton with one quite decent connection in Brighton. Now it a stopping service to Hampden Park, good connection for every stop to Brighton, 20 min wait for stopping service to Chichester, another 20 min wait for the Southampton train ex Vic. In the opposite direction there's also a 35 min connection at Hastings. Frankly the service is now unusable so I'll be driving.

accepted, but this is one example. Ashford to Southampton is something of a niche journey too.
meanwhile, London - Leeds back to normal, London - Derby back to normal, London - Cardiff (almost) back to normal, etc etc etc.

 

[A0]

The advantage of railway is speed rather than frequency. If a train takes 10 minutes and it takes 10-minute walk at both ends, while a car takes 40 minutes in the congested urban areas, a train is a big win.

But the number of journeys, particularly outside London, West Mids or Greater Manchester where that scenario occurs is, in reality, vanishingly small.

 

[paul1609]

accepted, but this is one example. Ashford to Southampton is something of a niche journey too.
meanwhile, London - Leeds back to normal, London - Derby back to normal, London - Cardiff (almost) back to normal, etc etc etc.

so what percentage of income and passenger numbers did those regional city to London expresses represent pre covid?

 

[Bald Rick]

so what percentage of income and passenger numbers did those regional city to London expresses represent pre covid?

Just those three? I don’t know about passengers, but between them the flows from those three (Leeds, Derby, Cardiff (only) to London (only) represented about 2% of national pre covid fares revenue.

For the avoidance of doubt that excludes connecting traffic at either end, any flows from stations served directly by these trains beyond those locations (eg Sheffield), any flows from London to intermediate stations, or between intermediate stations served by the long distance services on those corridors. If you were to add them in, specifically for those trains only (eg only taking half the Leicester - London revenue as only half Leicester’s service is Derby / Sheffield trains) that more than doubles, and is nudging half a billion a year.

Meanwhile Ashford to anywhere on the south coast west of Brighton doesn’t register on the flows above £100k.

 

[Starmill]

I think it more likely by some way that the larger effects are of people rationing their car travel by a) choosing to walk instead and b) choosing not to travel at all. Of course there's also an element of a switch to public transport but that's definitely not the main effect, although as a proportion of current rail usage on some routes it could still be noticeable. Fuel prices overall definitely do have an effect, but much of that was to do with business travel which is still heavily depressed by all modes. If fuel prices had no effect, TOC commercial departments wouldn't bother using indexes of them.

As others have said we'd need another 100% increase from current levels in order to really see significant traffic effects.

The other point to make is that people who are really likely to be making this calculation are in fact pretty savvy as it is. They're probably paying slightly less than average. For example Morrisons are currently doing a 7p / litre discount voucher scheme on their motor fuel, which is already pretty competitively priced.

 

[Failed Unit]

I definitely think where possible option B will be preferred. If you need to drive for work you are forced to absorb it as public transport probably is no use to you. But if you are working in a office you probably will do 1 day per week less (as the train commuters already are). My wife has a choice of WFH (which didn’t exist pre Covid), drive or hourly bus so she will definitely go for more WFH.

Other journeys just won’t happen such as going hiking in the Lake District. Which sadly will put more strain on the kind of business that needs the day trippers that normally drive.

Cycling could increase. But looking out the window now. It will take someone keen to cycle as it looks like it could rain any minute.

 

[CBlue]

The route I used regularly didn't have real-time tracking for its initial 3 months of operation, neither on the company's app nor on bustimes.org, and it took me multiple complaints and escalations about its poor service to got it fixed.

One route not tracking doesn't disprove my point.

Local to me, services don't interwork often so it is rather easy to tell where the bus you intend to catch is.

 

[mmh]

But the number of journeys, particularly outside London, West Mids or Greater Manchester where that scenario occurs is, in reality, vanishingly small.

Even if it weren't vanishingly small (and I agree it is), I'd disagree with him that a 30-minute journey made up of a 10-minute train and 20 minutes walking is a "big win" over a 40-minute door to door car journey. I think the number of people outside the biggest of cities who have ever made that choice will be even smaller.

 

[Failed Unit]

accepted, but this is one example. Ashford to Southampton is something of a niche journey too.
meanwhile, London - Leeds back to normal, London - Derby back to normal, London - Cardiff (almost) back to normal, etc etc etc.

I didn't realize that London - Leeds was back to normal, but just looked at RTT and the odd ones that were removed for the Azuma problems as back so that is great news.

So you mention most of the Inter-City routes with one exception - the Avanci West Coast.

Regional seems to be various states
EMR - Depends on when you judge it normal. May 2021 timetable is still not fully restored following the butchering in June 2021. No plans to restore it fully published. (Inter-city is back to normal so if you look at the number of trains this TOC runs, I can see why people think they are almost back to normal as the number looks good as IC is the biggest part of their business)
Northern - Lots of routes still on replacement buses.
XC - Still seriously pruned.
TPE - Still seriously pruned.
Gatwick Express
Most of the former NSE operators are still also a long way short of their previous off-peak timetable. You could argue that GN only running 1tph to Foxton, Shepreth and Meldreth isn't a big deal given the demand, but it is a big deal if your journey is 1/2 hour longer as your connection no longer works, this will not encourage you out the car.

So great for Inter-city but when you combine above still very difficult to get around compared to pre-covid. Understand lots of butchering will take place, but we have had reports of over-crowding on regional services. With users not sure if that is because of increase demand or gaps in the service. I remember a Central Trains manager saying once that is difficult to make money on a 2 Car DMU even if it is full compared to a 12 Car EMU in the south. So full regional services won't help save money.

But I still am not seeing that the majority of routes are back to normal. It is great LNER are back to normal, but a lot of the connections to the region are still missing. I must admit LNER probably will benefit on the longer journeys. I expect it will cost me about £130 in fuel to get from London - Edinburgh. The LNER fare looks a lot more competitive even for a family (with a railcard). However Shepreth - Cambridge I suspect will remain "lets drive".

 

[Bald Rick]

I didn't realize that London - Leeds was back to normal, but just looked at RTT and the odd ones that were removed for the Azuma problems as back so that is great news.

So you mention most of the Inter-City routes with one exception - the Avanci West Coast.

Regional seems to be various states
EMR - Depends on when you judge it normal. May 2021 timetable is still not fully restored following the butchering in June 2021. No plans to restore it fully published. (Inter-city is back to normal so if you look at the number of trains this TOC runs, I can see why people think they are almost back to normal as the number looks good as IC is the biggest part of their business)
Northern - Lots of routes still on replacement buses.
XC - Still seriously pruned.
TPE - Still seriously pruned.
Gatwick Express
Most of the former NSE operators are still also a long way short of their previous off-peak timetable. You could argue that GN only running 1tph to Foxton, Shepreth and Meldreth isn't a big deal given the demand, but it is a big deal if your journey is 1/2 hour longer as your connection no longer works, this will not encourage you out the car.

So great for Inter-city but when you combine above still very difficult to get around compared to pre-covid. Understand lots of butchering will take place, but we have had reports of over-crowding on regional services. With users not sure if that is because of increase demand or gaps in the service. I remember a Central Trains manager saying once that is difficult to make money on a 2 Car DMU even if it is full compared to a 12 Car EMU in the south. So full regional services won't help save money.

But I still am not seeing that the majority of routes are back to normal. It is great LNER are back to normal, but a lot of the connections to the region are still missing. I must admit LNER probably will benefit on the longer journeys. I expect it will cost me about £130 in fuel to get from London - Edinburgh. The LNER fare looks a lot more competitive even for a family (with a railcard). However Shepreth - Cambridge I suspect will remain "lets drive".

it depends what you call the ’majority of routes’, and ’normal service’.

fact of the matter is that something like 85% of the services that were running Pre covid are running now - and it’s a higher percentage at weekends. Many lines of route within TOCs are at normal service or very nearly so.

Sure there are some trips that have lower service levels, but it’s a minority, and outside the peak London commuter area most of the reductions are on flows with small numbers of passengers (Like Shepreth). And many of the reduced services are on routes that retain a good frequency - I’m sure Wimbledon is coping with its reduced service of 14tph off peak to Waterloo compared to the Pre covid 16.

AIUI Avanti have a shortage of drivers, they would be back at a full service now if they could resource it reliably.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

On the South Coast the rail service is now diabolical. West of Chichester the service has been cut to two trains an hour but even then the trains are still subject to frequent cancellations because of crew shortages. Five years ago it was possible to get a train from Ashford to Southampton with one quite decent connection in Brighton. Now it a stopping service to Hampden Park, good connection for every stop to Brighton, 20 min wait for stopping service to Chichester, another 20 min wait for the Southampton train ex Vic. In the opposite direction there's also a 35 min connection at Hastings. Frankly the service is now unusable so I'll be driving.

This is a temperary change and the through Brighton to Portsmouth/Southampton services will return in May.

 

[miklcct]

One route not tracking doesn't disprove my point.

Local to me, services don't interwork often so it is rather easy to tell where the bus you intend to catch is.

I don't understand - can you explain how you know where the bus is when the route isn't tracking at all? The route I mentioned doesn't interwork, and it used 2 vehicles on 30-minute headway but due to frequent lack of driver one of them just simply disappeared.

Furthermore, even if I know the incoming bus is delayed, I can do nothing about it and this has caused me running late to sports trainings recently, as it is an express service which go direct to my destination at the last minute, and the earlier one is 20 minutes earlier which is too early for me to wait outside with just running shorts in winter.

 

[87 027]

Based on the journey I made yesterday (by car) from the London area to south Manchester, the price of fuel would need to exceed around 230p per litre before it becomes cost neutral with the equivalent Avanti off-peak return fare. Last night when I filled up premium diesel in my area was retailing at 170p/ litre

 

[A0]

Based on the journey I made yesterday (by car) from the London area to south Manchester, the price of fuel would need to exceed around 230p per litre before it becomes cost neutral with the equivalent Avanti off-peak return fare. Last night when I filled up premium diesel in my area was retailing at 170p/ litre

But you're only comparing the fuel price - you need to factor in the othe running costs of the car for a fair comparison. An "average" family car i.e. Ford Focus is reckoned to cost about 65p / mile.

 

[87 027]

But you're only comparing the fuel price - you need to factor in the othe running costs of the car for a fair comparison. An "average" family car i.e. Ford Focus is reckoned to cost about 65p / mile.

Sure this is all part of the bigger picture but the calculation is a strictly hard nosed comparison of marginal costs on the day. Aside from consumables which might get consumed a bit quicker with higher mileage, principally tyres, the other costs of owning and maintaining a car are not abated in any material way if the car sits in my drive!

Road pricing would however be a game changer

 

[paul1609]

But you're only comparing the fuel price - you need to factor in the othe running costs of the car for a fair comparison. An "average" family car i.e. Ford Focus is reckoned to cost about 65p / mile.

The most logical way to me is to compare a days car rental plus fuel against the rail cost on that basis the only full priced fares that are competive on return journeys over 200 miles are the lower priced advance quotas on most routes. Rail is increasingly toffs only.

 

[87 027]

And depending on lifestyle there are other increased costs incurred by NOT owning a car. For example my annual holiday in Europe - load up with all our camping kit at home, ferry to France, drive to a nice campsite with pitch 'sans electricite', totally off grid for a fortnight, barbecues and camping gaz. Not much change out of £2,000 to hire a suitable vehicle for the duration as an alternative last time I looked. We digress, but I wanted to illustrate that the cost arguments can be quite nuanced if you want to look at the totality of car ownership

 

[Starmill]

But you're only comparing the fuel price - you need to factor in the othe running costs of the car for a fair comparison. An "average" family car i.e. Ford Focus is reckoned to cost about 65p / mile.

That estimate is much, much too high for someone who already owns a car and believes they need it for other reasons e.g. they use it travel at times of day when public transport is unavailable, use it to drive someone who wouldn't be able to access public transport because of a disability, or use it to carry heavy luggage. It just so happens that this figure for people with car access already incorporates about 80% of people. The marginal costs are just the extra cost of the miles on the maintenance budget. These are very low for most typical cars bought in the last decade. A few pence on top of the fuel consumption, not 65p.

The estimate is only useful in the case of comparing a currently car-free person who is considering switching all travel from public transport to driving, or vice versa for someone considering scrapping or selling a vehicle without replacing it.

 

[Signal_Box]

There is will be such public pressure to reduce petrol prices long before people are forced on trains. As prices creep towards £2 per litre pressure will mount to reduce the tax per litre, the government will want to throw us a carrot so they’ll say knock 20p off a litre especially as the government edge closer to a GE.

 

[Bald Rick]

‘

Based on the journey I made yesterday (by car) from the London area to south Manchester, the price of fuel would need to exceed around 230p per litre before it becomes cost neutral with the equivalent Avanti off-peak return fare. Last night when I filled up premium diesel in my area was retailing at 170p/ litre

How does it compare to advanced fares booked a couple of days before?

Or someone with a railcard?

And/or a petrol car that averages 30mpg?


I can book a return from London to Manchester for Monday for less than £80. With a railcard that would be about £53. Driving there and back would take me an hour longer each way (not including parking there) and cost me £100 in petrol. Driving would also be much less productive and more tiring.

It’s different for different people, and some will be switching.

There is will be such public pressure to reduce petrol prices long before people are forced on trains. As prices creep towards £2 per litre pressure will mount to reduce the tax per litre, the government will want to throw us a carrot so they’ll say knock 20p off a litre especially as the government edge closer to a GE.

No chance. Knocking 20p a litre off fuel duty would punch a £10bn hole in Government income which it can’t afford. Government is also (in my opinion) quite enjoying this bout of inflation - it is devaluing around 3/4 of the national debt and also enabling pay restraint in the public sector.

 

[Starmill]

No chance. Knocking 20p a litre off fuel duty would punch a £10bn hole in Government income which it can’t afford. Government is also (in my opinion) quite enjoying this bout of inflation - it is devaluing around 3/4 of the national debt and also enabling pay restraint in the public sector.

Not to mention a bit of extra VAT in the till on the most inelastic goods in the 20% category. Such as motor fuel!

 

[Bald Rick]

Not to mention a bit of extra VAT in the till on the most inelastic goods in the 20% category. Such as motor fuel!

Absolutely.