Effect of planned new WCML timetable on Milton Keynes Central

[cle]

Birmingham International's reach - in terms of distance people travel to it - is much greater than Watford due to the NEC and the Airport.

I'm not sure on NEC usage, I expect it generates (in normal times) a lot more hot and heavy usage. But Birmingham's airport is insignificant. And the share of folks arriving by rail even more so. It's not an 'airport' station explicitly in usage, it's more of a Stockport railhead (with a conference centre on top).

Comparing Watford and Birmingham International's use types and purposes is pointless anyway. Of course they are totally different. My point was on the raw numbers of rail passengers - i.e. potential for post-HS2 growth.

And to repeat, Watford has a good amount of inbound commuters from Herts and London, outer mainly but there are various company headquarters there which attract folks from all over. MKC has much of this traffic too (both more so than Coventry for instance which is more of a Northampton but on a mainline).

 

[A0]

I'm not sure on NEC usage, I expect it generates (in normal times) a lot more hot and heavy usage. But Birmingham's airport is insignificant. And the share of folks arriving by rail even more so. It's not an 'airport' station explicitly in usage, it's more of a Stockport railhead (with a conference centre on top).

Comparing Watford and Birmingham International's use types and purposes is pointless anyway. Of course they are totally different. My point was on the raw numbers of rail passengers - i.e. potential for post-HS2 growth.

And to repeat, Watford has a good amount of inbound commuters from Herts and London, outer mainly but there are various company headquarters there which attract folks from all over. MKC has much of this traffic too (both more so than Coventry for instance which is more of a Northampton but on a mainline).

Birmingham Airport is 8.5m passengers, same as Luton - if that's "insignificant", then building Luton Airport Parkway station was an abject waste of money.

 

[Bald Rick]

Birmingham Airport is 8.5m passengers, same as Luton - if that's "insignificant", then building Luton Airport Parkway station was an abject waste of money.

Pre Covid (2019) Birmingham was 12.6m, Luton 18.2m.

Air passenger rail use for BHX was 23% in 2016, assuming the same ratio for 2019 that’s almost 3m air passengers arriving or departing by train. That’s an average of 8,000 a day, so very ‘significant’ !

 

[Bletchleyite]

Specifically regarding Chorley and Salford Crescent, the main reason for not stopping there is that there's not enough time to rather than something related to capacity. There is really no reason to worry about people travelling from Bolton to Manchester anyway on those services because they don't call at peak times, off peak there's absolutely no reason not to let people on, regardless of if all seats are already taken, as people will often stand anyway for that journey, and indeed sometimes people do get on. It's a little bit different in the other direction, but Bolton has almost no northbound stops in the afternoon anyway, just 1230, 1330 and 2030 departures from Manchester Oxford Road. So the restriction could easily be dropped.

Though Salford Crescent has a specifically useful purpose in allowing back-and-forth interchange between services to Victoria and to Castlefield, so the ideal would be if it could be made into two long islands and everything stop there, as if it did the whole argument about what goes to Castlefield and what to Victoria would become somewhat moot, because interchange would always be easy.

Chorley less so, it's a reasonably sized town but I think 2tph 6-car to Preston and Manchester is fine (or 3 if the Windermere/Barrow goes that way). I don't object if the TPEs stop but don't think they need to.

 

[cle]

Though Salford Crescent has a specifically useful purpose in allowing back-and-forth interchange between services to Victoria and to Castlefield, so the ideal would be if it could be made into two long islands and everything stop there, as if it did the whole argument about what goes to Castlefield and what to Victoria would become somewhat moot, because interchange would always be easy.

Chorley less so, it's a reasonably sized town but I think 2tph 6-car to Preston and Manchester is fine (or 3 if the Windermere/Barrow goes that way). I don't object if the TPEs stop but don't think they need to.

It seems to me that is such a busy stretch - that at some point there should be 2tph Castlefield-Preston and 2tph Victoria-Preston. As to the Blackpools beyond, I'm not sure. And in addition TPE to Scotland and the Cumbrias (could be 2tph even fast from Bolton to Preston - no Chorley needed).

And the inner section could potentially (and Bolton definitely) benefit from the additional 2tph to Blackburn.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It seems to me that is such a busy stretch - that at some point there should be 2tph Castlefield-Preston and 2tph Victoria-Preston. As to the Blackpools beyond, I'm not sure. And in addition TPE to Scotland and the Cumbrias (could be 2tph even fast from Bolton to Preston - no Chorley needed).

And the inner section could potentially (and Bolton definitely) benefit from the additional 2tph to Blackburn.

You'd either need to quad Castlefield or rebuild Victoria to reliably do that.

 

[A0]

Pre Covid (2019) Birmingham was 12.6m, Luton 18.2m.

Air passenger rail use for BHX was 23% in 2016, assuming the same ratio for 2019 that’s almost 3m air passengers arriving or departing by train. That’s an average of 8,000 a day, so very ‘significant’ !

The data I used was the 2010 data from here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_in_the_United_Kingdom

I don't think either Birmingham Intl or Luton Airport Parkway are insignificant - I was respinding to Cle's frankly risible claim that Birmingham Airport is insignificant by making the point if such traffic is insignificant, Luton Airport Parkway shouldn't have been opened in 1999.....

 

[Bald Rick]

The data I used was the 2010 data from here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_in_the_United_Kingdom

I don't think either Birmingham Intl or Luton Airport Parkway are insignificant - I was respinding to Cle's frankly risible claim that Birmingham Airport is insignificant by making the point if such traffic is insignificant, Luton Airport Parkway shouldn't have been opened in 1999.....

No worries. CAA Passenger data is always a useful source of info, for airport usage and passenger routeing data. Much more public info here than on the rail market. I do wonder who the 21 people were that took a scheduled flight from Southampton to Newquay in January this year.

UK airport data | UK Civil Aviation Authority

Quarterly statistics, annual data

www.caa.co.uk

 

[MattRat]

There aren't any more important places on the WCML south of the West Midlands conurbation until you reach London, certainly, and MK will increase in size and become ever more important, not to mention its railheading role. Likely to double in size again over the next 20 years, which will increase its importance even further. Rugby is a small to medium town, and Watford effectively de-facto part of London now, and these three are the only IC stops, while nowhere along the Trent Valley line itself is of significant importance; it is a string of average small to medium towns.

That said, this will all be revisited again once HS2 comes along.

I wouldn't be surprised if MK becomes a part of London in the future if both expand as predicted.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wouldn't be surprised if MK becomes a part of London in the future if both expand as predicted.....

I think that's a way off to be honest, there are 50 miles (roughly) between the two - Wolverton is the mid-point of London and Birmingham (which is the whole reason Wolverton is even there as a railway town). People not from the SE can be forgiven for thinking they're closer together than they are, though, I used to.

London is presently about 15-20 miles in radius depending which bit. So you're talking the radius more than doubling (or the area multiplying by about 5). Not any time soon!

Watford is pretty much part of London now, though.

 

[MattRat]

I think that's a way off to be honest, there are 50 miles (roughly) between the two - Wolverton is the mid-point of London and Birmingham (which is the whole reason Wolverton is even there as a railway town). People not from the SE can be forgiven for thinking they're closer together than they are, though, I used to.

London is presently about 15-20 miles in radius depending which bit. So you're talking the radius more than doubling (or the area multiplying by about 5). Not any time soon!

Watford is pretty much part of London now, though.

I admit I may have got confused between London and Greater London. Watford would be in London, but something like Reading is in Greater London, and I was comparing the MK situation to Reading in my head.

 

[cle]

The data I used was the 2010 data from here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_in_the_United_Kingdom

I don't think either Birmingham Intl or Luton Airport Parkway are insignificant - I was respinding to Cle's frankly risible claim that Birmingham Airport is insignificant by making the point if such traffic is insignificant, Luton Airport Parkway shouldn't have been opened in 1999.....

Again you are conflating these 'airport/railhead/conference/parkway' stations with air passenger usage with an overly literal mindset. Similar to people on here who crash on about population correlating to rail use, or equity of service/potential.

The success of LAP is not literally as an airport station. Today anyway. That's good branding; it got it off the ground and of course stimulated a lot of initial demand. It has more rail users than Luton (legacy) now, and tons of development nearby. That is TOD-related, in its maturity - vs a stellar step change in LTN users. Birmingham International's usage is similarly far beyond just airport passengers. It does have a similar demo and mix of flights as LTN. Maybe a few more European hub connectors on non-bucket & spade airlines or VFR (all car dropped, with a big family to-do) - but a lot of 6am flights where folks are using other means. Cars and car services.

 

[Starmill]

I admit I may have got confused between London and Greater London. Watford would be in London, but something like Reading is in Greater London, and I was comparing the MK situation to Reading in my head.

It's probably confusing to use the term Greater London when that's already technically defined as the 33 constituent areas, which are now also frequently known collectively as simply London, in addition to being the historic name for just the City.

Perhaps the ONS' Greater London Urban Area is useful here? This does indeed include Watford.

 

[A0]

I admit I may have got confused between London and Greater London. Watford would be in London, but something like Reading is in Greater London, and I was comparing the MK situation to Reading in my head.

Bit in bold - utter balderdash.

To put it in context - Heathrow (effectively the western boundary of London) is 25 miles to Reading - the same as Romford (effectively the eastern boundary of London) to Southend. Yet Southend isn't viewed as part of 'Greater London' any more than Reading is.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Bit in bold - utter balderdash.

To put it in context - Heathrow (effectively the western boundary of London) is 25 miles to Reading - the same as Romford (effectively the eastern boundary of London) to Southend. Yet Southend isn't viewed as part of 'Greater London' any more than Reading is.

Not often I agree with you, but yes, Reading is 40 miles out from Charing Cross, the road-sign centre of London (Milton Keynes is 50). It is not in Greater London any more than MK is. Even Slough (which has a few TfL bus routes) is pushing it.

Methinks @MattRat is thinking how I did before I lived in the SE, having a false impression that "the Network SouthEast area" = "London", which of course it's not any more than Leeds is a suburb of Liverpool.

"Greater London" is analogous to what was Merseyside, not the whole South East commuterland. It's so named just to differentiate from the City of London, which is, as we know, just one square mile. Maybe fewer Northerners would be confused about it if it was similarly called "Thameside" or something, though of course there's Greater Manchester which is the same idea.

 

[DarloRich]

Can I have a decent connection off the Marston Vale line to other trains at Bletchley please? I would stop all services at Milton Keynes including the sleeper. I might not want to use often it but better safe than sorry.

Much as it may pain you, Milton Keynes isn't the be all and end all of the WCML and its connectivity. There are more important places.

Agree. Fenny Stratford much more important and a much older community

MK is, however, the most important place, economically in the area between London and Coventry. IMO Northampton and Rugby are or perhaps were pore pandemic almost dormitories for London/MK workers.

Too be fair, the tourist potential for MK is less than zero and tourism etc tends to be a big factor in travel patterns.

Harsh. We have Bletchley Park and the National Museum of Computing. Also, who would want to miss the picturesque nature of the Lakes estate.

And Bletchley Park, as you well know, is quite a way from the centre of MK

but it is close to Bletchley station and coming by train to visit the museum is a good option. Frequent, good quality trains from London and Birmingham and a discount if you show your train ticket.

True regional centres have governance from that place - MK doesn't have that. True regional centres usually have things like hospitals which offer certain specialisms - MK doesn't have that.

MK Hospital barely offers health care!

MK is economically successful or at least was before the pandemic. I would hold it is more important economically and more affluent than the other towns in the area. Prior to the pandemic there were lots of people coming into MK by train in the morning and there are several HQ type buildings close to the station. ( there are , of course, others situated close to the M1). There was also considerable London bound commuting.

If it's just about MK, what's the point?

Suits me

I wouldn't be surprised if MK becomes a part of London in the future if both expand as predicted.....

I think that is ambitious.

Unlikely - MK's reaching saturation point - unless it goes for *huge* expansion on the west side taking in places like Waddon, Nash and out towards Buckingham. And the problem it's got on the West side is the county boundary with Northants is south of the A422 - and I doubt West Northants are going to green light any large development down there which has little or no economic benefit to them.

Any expansion is unlikely to go west. However there will be further expansion. There is expansion at my end of town. Essentially everything within the roughly oblong area bounded by the River Ouzel, Marston Vale line and A4146/Brickhill street/ Bow Brickhill station will be built on. We are getting housing and warehousing. That is just about the development limit at the south end of the MK area ( there may be more over by Newton Leys) but as @Bletchleyite rightly points out the area to the NE of MK ( Newport Pagnell/Olney) has plans for various developments in the works. Whether they come off or not is a different argument!

There is also a development slot out beyond (IRC) HMP Woodhill and one out towards Woburn Sands. it is also worth nothing that there are plans for expansion at almost all of the villages along the Vale which will lean towards MK ( I suspect by car but I can hope by train)

These development plans will, if completed, add vastly to the population of MK and to the demand for train services as well as placing a burden on the road infrastructure.

 

[MattRat]

Bit in bold - utter balderdash.

To put it in context - Heathrow (effectively the western boundary of London) is 25 miles to Reading - the same as Romford (effectively the eastern boundary of London) to Southend. Yet Southend isn't viewed as part of 'Greater London' any more than Reading is.

Not often I agree with you, but yes, Reading is 40 miles out from Charing Cross, the road-sign centre of London (Milton Keynes is 50). It is not in Greater London any more than MK is. Even Slough (which has a few TfL bus routes) is pushing it.

Methinks @MattRat is thinking how I did before I lived in the SE, having a false impression that "the Network SouthEast area" = "London", which of course it's not any more than Leeds is a suburb of Liverpool.

"Greater London" is analogous to what was Merseyside, not the whole South East commuterland. It's so named just to differentiate from the City of London, which is, as we know, just one square mile. Maybe fewer Northerners would be confused about it if it was similarly called "Thameside" or something, though of course there's Greater Manchester which is the same idea.

Well I was also talking about the future when places expand. So MK might be in the Greater London area in the future, Reading too. I was of course completely wrong about Reading currently.

Your Merseyside point has helped though. With Liverpool, there is the city, which is like London, and the Liverpool City Region, which is like Greater London. Southport is part of the City Region, but Ormskirk isn't, same as Heathrow is part of Greater London but Reading isn't. Is that a good analogy?

If so, then even if both spheres of influence increase, MK will still be an entirely separate entity to London and the surrounding areas, the same way Ormskirk is to Liverpool and it's surrounding areas. So I guess OP does have a point after all.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Your Merseyside point has helped though. With Liverpool, there is the city, which is like London, and the Liverpool City Region, which is like Greater London. Southport is part of the City Region, but Ormskirk isn't, same as Heathrow is part of Greater London but Reading isn't. Is that a good analogy?

Pretty much, yes. I did specifically say Merseyside as TfL covers the whole Greater London area, and Merseytravel covers Merseyside (but not Halton), but I think you have the idea

(LCR = Merseyside + Halton - it could probably do with including West Lancs as well, but it doesn't for now at least)

 

[A0]

Well I was also talking about the future when places expand. So MK might be in the Greater London area in the future, Reading too. I was of course completely wrong about Reading currently.

Your Merseyside point has helped though. With Liverpool, there is the city, which is like London, and the Liverpool City Region, which is like Greater London. Southport is part of the City Region, but Ormskirk isn't, same as Heathrow is part of Greater London but Reading isn't. Is that a good analogy?

If so, then even if both spheres of influence increase, MK will still be an entirely separate entity to London and the surrounding areas, the same way Ormskirk is to Liverpool and it's surrounding areas. So I guess OP does have a point after all.

I'm conscious we're going a bit OT - but this needs to be closed off.

If you go back to the 1930s when the formation of the London Transport Passenger Board occurred and gave LT an effective monopoly for up to 30 miles from London (with hindsight a stupid and ill advised policy) you will see from the attached map that even then, that only got as far as Luton, Dunstable and Slough - even to this day, neither of those places consider themselves "part of London" - Reading and MK are further out again and trying to claim they are "part of London" or even "Greater London" will be opposed.

There's nothing in it for Herts, Beds, Bucks, Essex etc to cede a huge amount of control towards London.

 

[MattRat]

I'm conscious we're going a bit OT - but this needs to be closed off.

If you go back to the 1930s when the formation of the London Transport Passenger Board occurred and gave LT an effective monopoly for up to 30 miles from London (with hindsight a stupid and ill advised policy) you will see from the attached map that even then, that only got as far as Luton, Dunstable and Slough - even to this day, neither of those places consider themselves "part of London" - Reading and MK are further out again and trying to claim they are "part of London" or even "Greater London" will be opposed.

There's nothing in it for Herts, Beds, Bucks, Essex etc to cede a huge amount of control towards London.

It it still part of the topic, as I was under the assumption MK wouldn't need to be served separately, as it would be counted as serving London. This was needed to clear up why I was wrong. My original comment would be a bit like saying....

(LCR = Merseyside + Halton - it could probably do with including West Lancs as well, but it doesn't for now at least)

Becuase there are two regions that are very much different to each other, despite sharing borders.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Becuase there are two regions that are very much different to each other, despite sharing borders.

Both West Lancashire (at least from about Burscough southwards and west of the WCML) and Halton are part of the Liverpool travel to work area and very much associate to Liverpool. The reason they're not part of Merseyside is really historic.

 

[MattRat]

Both West Lancashire (at least from about Burscough southwards and west of the WCML) and Halton are part of the Liverpool travel to work area and very much associate to Liverpool. The reason they're not part of Merseyside is really historic.

Now we really are going off topic. I'm sure a lot of people commute from MK to London, but you yourself pointed out they aren't the same region. West Lancs is a deeply Conservative area, whereas Liverpool is a deeply Labour area. They simply have different ideas on what they want. The only connection is Ormskirk and Skelmersdale wanting a good connection to a big city to get access to what the big city offers, but they could get that just a easily from Preston as they could from Liverpool, its just they are closer to Liverpool and the Merseyrail network is there. If Lancashire had it's own commuter network like Merseyrail, I'm sure there wouldn't be any complaints.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Now we really are going off topic. I'm sure a lot of people commute from MK to London, but you yourself pointed out they aren't the same region. West Lancs is a deeply Conservative area, whereas Liverpool is a deeply Labour area. They simply have different ideas on what they want. The only connection is Ormskirk and Skelmersdale wanting a good connection to a big city to get access to what the big city offers, but they could get that just a easily from Preston as they could from Liverpool, its just they are closer to Liverpool and the Merseyrail network is there. If Lancashire had it's own commuter network like Merseyrail, I'm sure there wouldn't be any complaints.

It is a bit OT so I won't go too far with it, but if you read many of my previous postings you'll have found out that I'm actually from Ormskirk, indeed I'm sat there in my parents' house now. For my first 7 years, Old Roan was my local station, then from age 7 to 18 it was Aughton Park. (Fixed that, being dopey! )

The students aside, Ormskirk and Aughton are to Liverpool what the likes of Cheadle and Bramhall are to Manchester (and both of those are in GM). It's just posh commuterland. The predominant accents are "soft Scouse" and most people associate to Liverpool, not Preston.

Anyway, back to MK, this only got brought up as a comparison

 

[Bald Rick]

MK is, however, the most important place, economically in the area between London and Coventry.

id argue the most important, economically, between London and Birmingham.

 

[Nottingham59]

the most important, economically, between London and Birmingham.

I'd say the most important between London and Glasgow, along the route of the WCML main line.

 

[DarloRich]

id argue the most important, economically, between London and Birmingham.

i was being polite to Coventry

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Mar 2022 ==

The bigger question is how the recovery from the pandemic impacts on traffic flows. I would like to see the majority of service, excepting perhaps "express Scottish services" if duplicated by the existing slower Scottish services, stop at MK.

I would certainly expect all LNWR services to stop there.

 

[cle]

id argue the most important, economically, between London and Birmingham.

Or Watford and Birmingham?

DarloRich - I think every LNWR train will stop there. And likely most ‘Avanti’ in future too.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or Watford and Birmingham?

It's an interesting question as to which is more economically important, Watford or MK - I'm not quite sure. I suspect Watford is slightly on the wane and MK is clearly set for growth. WFJ does have slightly higher passenger numbers, but a very large part of that will just be London commuters due to its being much closer to London than MK.

Looking at the WCML via the Trent Valley to Glasgow (so not Brum, Cov, Wolves, Manchester, Stockport or Liverpool) and other than the Watford debate, I think I'm with whoever said it is the most economically important intermediate station. Preston and Warrington are probably the only others that come close but economically MK seems to do far better than both, and Preston's population is much smaller and much of it made up of classic terraced housing with generally very low income levels (Warrington is fairly similar to MK though a bit smaller). Most other places on the direct route are small to medium sized places where a fair bit of the demand is likely to be railheading by car.

 

[cle]

It's an interesting question as to which is more economically important, Watford or MK - I'm not quite sure. I suspect Watford is slightly on the wane and MK is clearly set for growth. WFJ does have slightly higher passenger numbers, but a very large part of that will just be London commuters due to its being much closer to London than MK.

Looking at the WCML via the Trent Valley to Glasgow (so not Brum, Cov, Wolves, Manchester, Stockport or Liverpool) and other than the Watford debate, I think I'm with whoever said it is the most economically important intermediate station. Preston and Warrington are probably the only others that come close but economically MK seems to do far better than both, and Preston's population is much smaller and much of it made up of classic terraced housing with generally very low income levels (Warrington is fairly similar to MK though a bit smaller). Most other places on the direct route are small to medium sized places where a fair bit of the demand is likely to be railheading by car.

I'm sort of messing around. I like them both, and am from neither so no skin in the game other than taking the WCML my entire life. Wish both well

Besides, they're very different places. Watford is like a Slough, or maybe a Coventry to Brum, in a Midlands sense. And on the wane is fair, that curse of losing your John Lewis is real. Forget cathedrals and universities - that's the mark of a proper city. A shame as I think it could have bounced back with two tube lines and a whole burst of other connectivity activity - now it'll probably never have any.

Whereas MKC is the oversized regional centre - it has those dependence shades of Norwich or Peterborough or Exeter - i.e. the biggest game for miles which punches above its weight in retail and so on. But then the centrally located logistics and retail/services HQs - and of course NR - which diversifies it more than those other cities.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Besides, they're very different places. Watford is like a Slough, or maybe a Coventry to Brum, in a Midlands sense. And on the wane is fair, that curse of losing your John Lewis is real. Forget cathedrals and universities - that's the mark of a proper city. A shame as I think it could have bounced back with two tube lines and a whole burst of other connectivity activity - now it'll probably never have any.

Whereas MKC is the oversized regional centre - it has those dependence shades of Norwich or Peterborough or Exeter - i.e. the biggest game for miles which punches above its weight in retail and so on. But then the centrally located logistics and retail/services HQs - and of course NR - which diversifies it more than those other cities.

I think that's fair. If you wanted a GWML comparison Watford is Slough and MK is Reading (both similar distances out, too), though there are economic differences and MK has far fewer London commuters for largely historic reasons.

MK indeed doesn't have a university* though there keep being projects to try to bring us one. It does have a big church, which might not legally be a cathedral but unless you're religious that isn't that important, it's just a big religious building with a cross on top.

* The OU is a bit different, as while its administrative centre and library is there, it's primarily a "remote learning" institution and has no provisions for e.g. seminars to take place there - they always hire other university buildings - I did some of mine at Oxford Brookes and one at Southampton, and more of them are online now due to COVID. In terms of its effect on the place, it might as well be the head office of any large company. Cranfield is more of a "proper" university, though doesn't have undergraduate courses.