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Russia invades Ukraine

ainsworth74

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The post-cold war spending did not even leave a good legacy of equipment as far as the US military is concerned. The F22 fighter, the Seawolf submarine and Zumwalt class destroyer have been epic white elephants and in many cases are to be superseded by new builds of the older designs they were supposed to replace. I understand the USA is now building more Arleigh Burke destroyers and F15s. The EU probably did well to largely skip the immediate post cold war equipment and are at liberty to go straight to digitised, decarbonised alternatives.

Hardly. The F-22 and Seawolf (chuck the B-2 in there for good measure) were all victims of being systems built for Cold War budgets that arrived after that ended and the Peace Dividend had taken full effect. If Berlin hadn't come down in 1989 and the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 you'd have seen plenty of all of them being built. The F-22 remains the preeminent air superiority fighter, nobody has anything in service in any serious numbers that comes close. Similarly with the Seawolf only thing that comes close would be a Royal Navy Astute class submarine. But all of them were hugely expensive in the era of the "End of History".

Zumwalt (and the Littoral Combat Ship for that matter) was a disaster area. Too many people believed too many PowerPoint presentations and ended up with ships trying to bring too many new system (often systems which were little more than twinkle in the designers eye) into service in one go for that to ever work out well. Restarting Arleigh Burke production is simply a reaction to that project failure. The Burke remains, however, one of the most capable all around surface combatants afloat.

The USAF procuring more F-15s is tied up with the premature ending of F-22 production and delays to the F-35 entering service in large numbers rather than inherent problems with the F-22 (or F-35, the F-35 is very good at what it does, it's just horrifically late and overbudget).

As for Europe I'm not entirely sure what a "decarbonised alternative" is supposed to be seeing as the various systems that have been introduced aren't exactly "green" other than in the colour of the camo applied to some of them. It's also rather bizarre to suggest that they skipped the immediate post Cold War period. Plenty of European based weapon systems have been delivered in similar time frames to those US projects you mention. Eurofighter Typoon (2003), Dassault Rafale (2001), Challenger 2 (1998), CV-90 (1993), ASCOD (2002) to name a few.]]

The US problem (and that of the wider Western world) was appalling project management by Government and their militaries. Often the kit that arrived in the end was pretty good or even excellent. It was just often horrifically late and overbudget and even when it wasn't completely plagued but such issues Governments were often not willing to drop the money in a post Cold War world.

Of course if Russian aircraft refuse to leave Ukrainian airspace, they would be fired on by Western aircraft. No point otherwise.
So we just declared war on Russia. Are you able to be certain how that will end? I don't think anyone can honestly claim to say "Yes" to that question. In which case you have to comfortable that such an action could lead to a nuclear war. Saying anything else is dishonest. Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine could very possibly lead to a nuclear war. That is clear.
“No fly” is just a generic name, if Western airforces were there at the request of Ukraine, then we would not be denying them from flying above their own country! The objective would be for Western airforces to patrol the Ukrainian airspace to prevent Russian aircraft from using it.
So we just sided with Ukraine in that case and started providing them with active military assistance. That's quite an escalation on our part. Before we even get to shooting down Russian aircraft.
As it’s likely that Western airforces will have sufficient numbers to defend the Ukrainian airspace, it’s entirely possible that the Russian airforce will just avoid the Ukrainian airspace.
Pull the other one! The Russian Air Force is not going to abandon their Ground Forces colleagues, they're going to fight. So again you just started a war with Russia over Ukraine.

As I've said previously it is dishonest to try and pretend that establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is anything other than extremely risky with a very high chance of escalating not only to a full blown conventional war with Russia but further. This isn't Libya or Serbia. Russia is perfectly capable of resisting and I see no evidence to suggest that they wouldn't do so with all their capability. Fighting Ukraine is one thing, I'm certain that their morale issues would rapidly resolve themselves in the face of NATO attacks.
 
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Butts

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Has anyone else read accounts of non-whites attempting to enter Poland from Ukraine being subjected to less favourable treatment ?

Apparently there are separate queues with the caucasian one moving a lot quicker and reports of beatings in the other one.

Sounds like apartheid South Africa ?
 

Chingy

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According to Sky news, four Russian fighter jets have violated Swedish airspace;

Screenshot_2022-03-02-19-13-59-34_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

Conveniently, another non NATO member.
 

Annetts key

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Merely patrolling doesn't prevent Russian aircraft from using the airspace...

That presumes that the Russians don't want a fight...
1) read my earlier post
2) if the Russian aircraft won’t stay out, they should be fired on.
3) if they want a fight, they can eat modern Western firepower.
 

adc82140

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Probably happens all the time, just not reported on.

Same with Russia and the UK, China and Taiwan etc.
It does. And quite frequently over Gotland, where this happened . The airspace that Russia can use getting from Kaliningrad to the rest of Russia is limited, and the Russian Air force have been criticised for poor navigational skills before. The incursion was so brief it can be put down to incompetence.
 
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Darandio

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And we grow an extra buttock. As much as they deserve to be fired upon and Sweden would be justified in doing so, just no.

It's worth noting that response was in relation to a no-fly-zone in Ukraine, not the airspace around Sweden.
 

Annetts key

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there are some 300 + modern aircraft in Belarus. They havent played much part in the conflict. Yet.
And if they are stupid enough to challenge Western air power, there will soon be a lot less of them.

I am not sure the Russians are going to see the difference. They are going to see thier plane shot down by a third party and are going to respond. They aren't going to pooh thier pants and run away. That's the start of an escalation we may not be able to control.
It doesn’t matter. Russia knows that it can’t successfully fight Ukrainian forces AND all the NATO forces all at the same time.

You seem to be, perhaps wilfully, over looking the potential consequences. You are advocating war with Russia. I think the Russians would respond to attacks on thier aircraft. What do you think will happen?
Yes, I am advocating war with Russia. It’s about time we stopped being scared of them. If Russia will not behave itself, at some point we will have to use force to stop them. Far better to do it while a large amount of their forces are tied down already fighting a difficult war that they started.

Besides which, if Russia sees sense, they will see that taking on NATO forces would end up with a really bad result for them. No country wants a large amount of its military forces to be destroyed. That’s the risk that Russia would take.
 

Ediswan

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Has anyone else read accounts of non-whites attempting to enter Poland from Ukraine being subjected to less favourable treatment ?
Not read, but seen on BBC. Also reports of non-whites being denied access to refugee trains by Ukrainian officials.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Has anyone else read accounts of non-whites attempting to enter Poland from Ukraine being subjected to less favourable treatment ?

Apparently there are separate queues with the caucasian one moving a lot quicker and reports of beatings in the other one.

Sounds like apartheid South Africa ?
C4 news ran a piece about it tonight
 

dosxuk

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No country wants a large amount of its military forces to be destroyed.
You seem to be advocating for a large amount of our forces to be destroyed - which is exactly what would happen in an all out NATO vs Russia war.
 

yorkie

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And if they are stupid enough to challenge Western air power, there will soon be a lot less of them.


It doesn’t matter. Russia knows that it can’t successfully fight Ukrainian forces AND all the NATO forces all at the same time.


Yes, I am advocating war with Russia. It’s about time we stopped being scared of them. If Russia will not behave itself, at some point we will have to use force to stop them. Far better to do it while a large amount of their forces are tied down already fighting a difficult war that they started.

Besides which, if Russia sees sense, they will see that taking on NATO forces would end up with a really bad result for them. No country wants a large amount of its military forces to be destroyed. That’s the risk that Russia would take.
This is all great in theory, but I am afraid a hefty dose of reality is required; I refer you to posts by @ainsworth74 and others, above.
 

Yew

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You seem to be advocating for a large amount of our forces to be destroyed - which is exactly what would happen in an all out NATO vs Russia war.
I fear that you vastly overestimate the capabilities of Russian armed forces.
 

the sniper

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1) read my earlier post
2) if the Russian aircraft won’t stay out, they should be fired on.
3) if they want a fight, they can eat modern Western firepower.

So long as you're willing to put the lives of you and your family into the equation, fair enough. Personally it would seem premature to me, if you truly understand what you're suggesting.
 

brad465

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No but the rest of the globe is going to hurt and in some countries this also cause civil disorder and other conflicts if this price level becomes the norm.

Even coal has hone up a staggering 33% today to a record high of $400 because other countries looking to bolster stockpiles as gas can't easily be replaced if Russia shuts it off.
That's more down to the failing economic system in many countries than commodities shooting up, especially after 2008, which led to a k-shape recovery. A suggestion I'd make to rectify this is to tax wealth above a certain threshold and use revenue to support those who'll be hard hit by all the cost of living issues, especially as post-2008 wealth has gone into assets far more than production, including the Russian oligarch wealth as it happens. But that's another matter entirely for another day.
 

AlterEgo

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Russia buzzed Sweden today near Gotland with some jets which had obviously come from Kaliningrad. More military trolling.
 

Annetts key

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The Russian Air Force is not going to abandon their Ground Forces colleagues, they're going to fight.
You know this as a fact do you?

As I've said previously it is dishonest to try and pretend that establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is anything other than extremely risky with a very high chance of escalating not only to a full blown conventional war with Russia but further.
With any warfare of course there is a risk. Ask the Russians….

And absolutely everything in life comes with a risk. Some people die due to having accidents when getting dressed, including some who die as a result of accidents when trying to put their socks on (link). No risk, no reward.

No one knows for certain what will happen if Western airforces use their aircraft over Ukrainian airspace. But no one knows what else may happen if the West does nothing. No one knows what will happen if Russia is eventually successful in Ukraine. No one knows if Putin will just launch nuclear weapons anyway.

Further, we can’t even come to any meaningful way of measuring the risk for most of these things. Because there is no way to measure some of the variables (one of which is what is going on in Putin’s head).

But one thing that is known, is that Putin / Russia is afraid of the West / NATO. Why? Because Putin / Russia has said that it does not want NATO on it’s doorstep. We HAVE to take advantage of this. Not to do so would be foolish, especially while Russia is under pressure.
 

Bluejays

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Wonder if Assad is getting a bit twitchy. The Russian Air force, Russian mercenaries and Russian special forces were the only thing that kept him in power. With them getting dragged to Ukraine, surely only a matter of time before it kicks off there again.
 

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