Russia invades Ukraine

[nw1]

The effective ousting of Gorbachev was a tragedy IMO. He wasn’t perfect but things have deteriorated infinitely since.

Quite. The only Russian/Soviet leader of my lifetime that I have any respect for (and a lot of respect for, as it happens). That drunken idiot Yeltsin did no good whatsoever.

 

[ainsworth74]

Are we talking about the much feared 'Neutron Bomb'? Ie the very low yield but radioactively lethal (if very short term) device designed to wipe out armoured divisions as opposed to buildings? I believe the West stood theirs down years ago but not sure about Russia?

I'm lead to believe that neither side actually fielded such a weapon.

Edit: I was partially correct. They were fielded but primarily in the ABM role - the idea being that the high neutron flux would disable incoming warheads.

The Americans produced a battlefield versions (artillery shell and short range ballistic missile warhead) in the late 70s/early 80s (all retired in 1992) but the primary use has been in the anti-ballistic missile role in which Russia continues operate to this today. I've never found out whether the Soviets developed any battlefield versions but I'd be surprised if they didn't. Whether they ever made them in any great number and deployed them is another matter my gut instinct would be that they probably didn't and I doubt Russia have any today (outside their ABM role).

It's also worth noting that enhanced radiation weapons still have significant blast and thermal effects just at lower yields so they are still physically quite destructive (drop a 1 kiloton enhanced radiation weapon on say a power plant, something you might want to capture, and you'll still do massive physical damage to the power plant). They're not by any stretch a weapon which would kill people but leave all the buildings behind intact.

 

[brad465]

Things are now so bad that neutral Switzerland has decided to adopt all EU sanctions:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

After some soul-searching, neutral Switzerland will adopt all EU sanctions against Russia.

There will be no exceptions: five oligarchs have already been banned from entering Switzerland, the bank accounts of all 336 people on the EU’s list, including Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, will be frozen with immediate effect.

Swiss banks are believed to hold billions of dollars in Russian funds.

The country's air space is closed to Russian aircraft, while Swiss airlines have cancelled their flights to Russia.

Make no mistake, this is a huge step for Switzerland, which has often agonised over what being neutral actually means.

Today Swiss President Ignazio Cassis made it clear: the attack on Ukraine was an unacceptable attack on freedom and democracy, "playing into the hands of aggression is not neutral", neither is standing by while the Geneva Conventions, which Switzerland is home to, are "trampled underfoot".

 

[GS250]

Quite. The only Russian/Soviet leader of my lifetime that I have any respect for (and a lot of respect for, as it happens). That drunken idiot Yeltsin did no good whatsoever.

Gorbachev came across as a pillar of sanity and good intentions. He was, as a former British Prime Minister described "a man we can do business with". Even if the USSR had stayed intact, he would have been far, far more palatable than any of the others. I believe in effectively dissolving the USSR he made himself redundant.

 

[Bantamzen]

Agreed - I don't take the charts as "gospel" but they do show directions of travel

I think one of the obvious directions of travel is in the south east, they are clearly trying to form a land bridge to Crimea as one of their priorities. And sadly they are close to achieving this.

However one possible mistake is leaving the west of the country relatively untouched. This is where EU / UK / US military logistics can be brought in with less resistance. And the more military kit brought in, the harder the job will get for the Russian military, and by proxy for Putin. His quick and efficient takeover is being repelled, and soon he will have Russian people asking where their sons and daughters are.

My one hope is that somewhere in the Kremlin, secret meetings are happening to discuss the possibility of seeking a way out, and a way to move Vlad out of his current position.

 

[mike57]

My one hope is that somewhere in the Kremlin, secret meetings are happening to discuss the possibility of seeking a way out, and a way to move Vlad out of his current position.

I suspect that the fact the Russian businesses are going to find it difficult to function, and therefore their owners will not be making the amounts of money they are accustomed to will concentrate minds behind the scenes, but I dont think it will happen quickly. However longer term a crumbling currency and an inability to participate in global trade will erode Putins power base, After all are you going to continue to support someone who may have wiped your business interests out, or seriously devalued them on a whim.

 

[GS250]

I suspect that the fact the Russian businesses are going to find it difficult to function, and therefore their owners will not be making the amounts of money they are accustomed to will concentrate minds behind the scenes, but I dont think it will happen quickly. However longer term a crumbling currency and an inability to participate in global trade will erode Putins power base, After all are you going to continue to support someone who may have wiped your business interests out, or seriously devalued them on a whim.

Exactly this. The likes of Abramovich may or may not want peace for peace's sake. However they will certainly be alarmed at the wealth that they will lose. Even if its purely from a selfish point of view, the likes of he may come in useful to de-escalate the situation.

 

[najaB]

I suspect that the fact the Russian businesses are going to find it difficult to function, and therefore their owners will not be making the amounts of money they are accustomed to will concentrate minds behind the scenes, but I dont think it will happen quickly

The freezing of bank accounts means that it will hit home very quickly for some of them. I imagine there's a spoiled son/daughter or two right now complaining to daddy that the credit card doesn't work...

 

[Yew]

I am sure that Western nations have quite a few ears on the ground in the Kremlin/ Russia, so have a good idea of what is happening. Although it is never a good idea to remove a president as it would de-stablise a country, I wonder whether there could be a SAS/ special forces mission to remove Putin and allow Russia to re-set itself.

Russia has shown its self to be quite apt at deposing its own leaders, if it sees fit.

 

[Caboose Class]

Gorbachev came across as a pillar of sanity and good intentions. He was, as a former British Prime Minister described "a man we can do business with". Even if the USSR had stayed intact, he would have been far, far more palatable than any of the others. I believe in effectively dissolving the USSR he made himself redundant.

Gorby was indeed a very courageous man who, back in the 80's, was willing to "do business with" the West. Sadly, his legacy was to be (by the Russian people), the man who "betrayed them". Now aged 91, and no longer on the world stage, he is a forgotten man. The same can be said of Lech Walesa. The Pole who, with the help of Solidarnosc, threw off the Soviet yoke after 40 years of occupation. Today, another forgotten man, derided as a dumb Polak electrician president. Similarly Vaclav Havel (Civil Forum & Prague Spring) in what was then Czechoslovakia, no mention of him either.

Time moves on. People forget. It's all about today. Another generation has been born since 1989. We now have the Internet, Social Media, etc. Times were different then - and much more simple!

 

[birchesgreen]

Quite. The only Russian/Soviet leader of my lifetime that I have any respect for (and a lot of respect for, as it happens). That drunken idiot Yeltsin did no good whatsoever.

The time he left the Irish government standing on the tarmac because he was too drunk to get off a plane still makes me smile.

 

[bspahh]

A Russian news agency has accidentally (?) published an article celebrating a Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state within an anticipated two days.

The article is in Russian and has been archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585 is a twitter thread on this. Its easier to read from this page
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498310064117059585
It starts:

RIA Novosti news agency accidentally published an article, tagged with a publication date of 8AM on February 26, already celebrating a Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state within an anticipated two days.

The translation of this article ends:

"China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only thrown down a challenge to the West, it's shown the era of Western global domination can be considered fully and definitively over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centres of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) -but not on its terms and not according to its rules.”

 

[Scotrail314209]

A Russian news agency has accidentally (?) published an article celebrating a Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state within an anticipated two days.

The article is in Russian and has been archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585 is a twitter thread on this. Its easier to read from this page
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498310064117059585
It starts:

The translation of this article ends:

That’s ominous.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Feb 2022 ==

So does this mean that Russian Media outlets had press releases ready to go on the 26th to mark the fall of Ukraine? Cause they are two days late with the apparent fall.

 

[SJL2020]

Similarly Vaclav Havel (Civil Forum & Prague Spring) in what was then Czechoslovakia, no mention of him either.

Havel died 10 years ago, so it's probably asking too much for him to be still playing an active role.

 

[squizzler]

I wonder whether there is the opportunity to provide fresh fighter jets to Ukrainian pilots? In the battle of Britain it was quite usual to get shot down one day, then get a fresh plane and rejoin battle after recovering. This is the advantage of the battles mostly being over the homeland rather than in enemy territory where you would more likely be taken prisoner and "the war for you is over".

The USA has huge boneyards full of surplus F16s and other fairly contemporary planes. Why can't these be supplied to, say, Poland, where the Ukrainian pilots could take a train to collect them and literally fly them straight into battle?

 

[class ep-09]

I wonder how brexit fans will explain behaviour of Ukraine .

It formally asked to join the EU club .

Ukrainian president signs formal request to join the European Union

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday said he had signed an official request for Ukraine to join the European Union.

www.reuters.com

 

[Caboose Class]

Havel died 10 years ago, so it's probably asking too much for him to be still playing an active role.

Similarly Henry VIII.

 

[GB]

I wonder whether there is the opportunity to provide fresh fighter jets to Ukrainian pilots? In the battle of Britain it was quite usual to get shot down one day, then get a fresh plane and rejoin battle after recovering. This is the advantage of the battles mostly being over the homeland rather than in enemy territory where you would more likely be taken prisoner and "the war for you is over".

The USA has huge boneyards full of surplus F16s and other fairly contemporary planes. Why can't these be supplied to, say, Poland, where the Ukrainian pilots could take a train to collect them and literally fly them straight into battle?

You expect any fighter pilot to fly any fighter without any further training AND be successful?

 

[simonw]

I wonder whether there is the opportunity to provide fresh fighter jets to Ukrainian pilots? In the battle of Britain it was quite usual to get shot down one day, then get a fresh plane and rejoin battle after recovering. This is the advantage of the battles mostly being over the homeland rather than in enemy territory where you would more likely be taken prisoner and "the war for you is over".

The USA has huge boneyards full of surplus F16s and other fairly contemporary planes. Why can't these be supplied to, say, Poland, where the Ukrainian pilots could take a train to collect them and literally fly them straight into battle?

I doubt that a pilot could do as you suggest without many hours of training, unless they have flown that type of plane before.

 

[nanstallon]

Yesterday I witnessed the demonstrations being held in Lisbon in front of the Russian Embassy.

I found it beautiful that all hatred was pointed towards Putin. No one was wishing malice towards the Russian.

What I found interesting was the fact that Ukrainians found it unacceptable for "Grândola, Vila Morena" to be sang.
I believe it's due to its strong connection to the Communist movement in Portugal?

Which, BTW, the Portuguese Communist Party was clearly absent from these demonstrations. Goes to show that Russia, even after the Soviet colapse, still has power projected outside of its borders!

In Russia, it was a Communist member of the Duma (yes, there are some opposition members) who called for an end to the invasion. Yet, in the West, the left tend to excuse Russia for anything although it is no longer a Communist state. I feel that Jeremy Corbyn just doesn't like Britain - we are always in the wrong.

 

[AlterEgo]

That’s ominous.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Feb 2022 ==

So does this mean that Russian Media outlets had press releases ready to go on the 26th to mark the fall of Ukraine? Cause they are two days late with the apparent fall.

Yes. That’s what the state expected to happen.

 

[Ted633]

I wonder whether there is the opportunity to provide fresh fighter jets to Ukrainian pilots? In the battle of Britain it was quite usual to get shot down one day, then get a fresh plane and rejoin battle after recovering. This is the advantage of the battles mostly being over the homeland rather than in enemy territory where you would more likely be taken prisoner and "the war for you is over".

The USA has huge boneyards full of surplus F16s and other fairly contemporary planes. Why can't these be supplied to, say, Poland, where the Ukrainian pilots could take a train to collect them and literally fly them straight into battle?

How much of a role are the Ukrainian Air Force playing? I'd be surprised if the Russians hadn't knocked their runways with long range strikes.
Even if the runways were operational, the Ukrainian Air Force don't fly western types so there would be no hope of that plan working unless the west has got some spare Sukhoi's laying about!

 

[birchesgreen]

There might be some MiG-29s available from former Warsaw Pact countries but it all depends on the serviceability and whether they've been kept up to date.

 

[nanstallon]

Quite. The only Russian/Soviet leader of my lifetime that I have any respect for (and a lot of respect for, as it happens). That drunken idiot Yeltsin did no good whatsoever.

OK, Yeltsin went off the rails. But don't forget how, at great personal risk, he stood up for, and rallied the people to defend, Gorbachev's reforms after the old guard tried to depose Gorbachev in the summer of 1991. If only he had resisted the temptation to push Gorbachev aside, we might all be much better off today.

 

[squizzler]

Is it really that crazy to expect a fighter pilot to get rapidly up to speed with another type? I suspect most of the training has to do with theory, doctrine, tactics, protocols etc rather than stick waggling. As for the mechanics and instruments of a new type, PC flight simulators are very good indeed. This is just speculation but I suspect that even switching to a US fighter would not be that hard for somebody familiar with Soviet kit, probably easier than the other way round.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Yes. That’s what the state expected to happen.

Oh dear. I feel sorry for whoever hit publish!

 

[43096]

The freezing of bank accounts means that it will hit home very quickly for some of them. I imagine there's a spoiled son/daughter or two right now complaining to daddy that the credit card doesn't work...

The fact that Switzerland has joined the imposition of sanctions may well be a very significant development in terms of turning the financial screw.

Already the rouble has dropped significantly against the US$ on the currency markets and Russian interest rates have been increased from 9.5% to 20%. Seems like sanctions are starting to have an effect.

 

[GB]

Is it really that crazy to expect a fighter pilot to get rapidly up to speed with another type? I suspect most of the training has to do with theory, doctrine, tactics, protocols etc rather than stick waggling. As for the mechanics and instruments of a new type, PC flight simulators are very good indeed. This is just speculation but I suspect that even switching to a US fighter would not be that hard for somebody familiar with Soviet kit, probably easier than the other way round.

Aerodynamic and maneuverability differences alone would render your idea a no go. They might be able to get the plane up in the air, but to be combat effective not a chance.

 

[Ediswan]

So does this mean that Russian Media outlets had press releases ready to go on the 26th to mark the fall of Ukraine?

There is nothing especially sinister in media outlets writing articles in anticipation of expected events. Look at the number of times obituaries have been published in error.

 

[Scotrail314209]

There is nothing especially sinister in media outlets writing articles in anticipation of expected events. Look at the number of times obituaries have been published in error.

For me it’s more the ending of the article that’s sinister!