Are the high petrol prices helping the recovery of rail traffic?

[squizzler]

With petrol and diesel so expensive the value proposition of rail must be greatly improved over some of the alternatives. Travellers would therefore be assumed to shift to rail. Is this noticeable in people's observations or statistics yet?

 

[Alfonso]

With petrol and diesel so expensive the value proposition of rail must be greatly improved over some of the alternatives. Travellers would therefore be assumed to shift to rail. Is this noticeable in people's observations or statistics yet?

I think it's very unlikely to show in statistics yet if ever, partly as nobody knows what normal is going to look like, partly because the fixed and semi fixed costs of car ownership are quite high and fuel is a relatively small variable cost, but mainly because train services are only just getting back to normal and for many the train did not provide a viable or reliable alternative.

 

[L401CJF]

For me it has, ive recently taken a new job on a lower probation pay for 6months which is based further from home than my previous job. Huge hike in petrol prices, so it works out cheaper for me to park at the station (2miles away) and train it into town rather than drive all the way.

The service I use is of a 15min frequency then every 30mins of an evening so is perfect for me and is really reliable. If i still lived in my old house with its unreliable indirect infrequent service (Bidston to Wrexham line) which would require multiple changes to chester often with long waits (and would take over twice as long as driving) then id have no choice but to drive.

The only real way to tempt people across is frequency and reliability along with tolerable - and frequent - connections.

 

[87 027]

the value proposition of rail must be greatly improved over some of the alternatives.

Not necessarily! Even without increases in headline fares I have noticed considerably reduced availability of cheaper advance tickets (looking at you Avanti!) and the time/hassle penalty of multiple changes of train using operator restricted split tickets (LNWR/Northern) is unappealing. And I doubt the railway is immune from soaring energy bills...

 

[Watershed]

There will be very few flows where rail is priced attractively, and where the journey time and frequency are competitive, for which the car is a reasonable alternative. Accordingly petrol prices would have to increase massively (probably to £5 or a litre or more) to really tip the balance.

 

[DelayRepay]

With petrol and diesel so expensive the value proposition of rail must be greatly improved over some of the alternatives. Travellers would therefore be assumed to shift to rail. Is this noticeable in people's observations or statistics yet?

I don't think so. I own a car but if I am going any significant distance I prefer to use the train. If I was deciding purely on a financial basis, the car would win every time, even with increasing petrol costs.

I prefer the train because it's more relaxing, but it's rarely the cheapest way to travel.

Back in the day before I owned a car and money was a bigger priority, MegaBus generally won over the train.

 

[Tom B]

For many years now I have regularly made journeys between North London and Doncaster. Until a couple of years ago I would almost always take the train. What has changed is twofold - I moved to a more outlying part of London, and public transport up north has degenerated further. So the journey between KGX>DON is fantastically quick and efficient as ever, but when I take into account the tube journey at this end, the unreliable Firstbus at the other end, it is unfortunately now more convenient to drive.

But, going back to the purely cost element, approximate cost for a round trip is £70 in fuel based on current prices and 35mpg. That still compares favourably with an open return which must be north of £100 now.

 

[squizzler]

I don't think so. I own a car but if I am going any significant distance I prefer to use the train. If I was deciding purely on a financial basis, the car would win every time, even with increasing petrol costs.

I prefer the train because it's more relaxing, but it's rarely the cheapest way to travel.

Back in the day before I owned a car and money was a bigger priority, MegaBus generally won over the train.

So you find the train provides good value for money relative to your preferred alternative. That value proposition will increase as motoring is no longer so "cheap and cheerful".

We must not get so preoccupied with motorcars, although they are the juiciest target for rail marketing. Busses and aircraft use petroleum based fuels and their relative competitiveness will suffer. Bicycles, particularly the new generation of electric ones with minimal running costs might in turn take away the local train travel and partially offset the gains from motorists.

Lumo, in common with many open access operators in the EU, is going after the low cost airlines. They will surely gain an advantage with higher fuel cost, right?

 

[RT4038]

Back in the day before I owned a car and money was a bigger priority, MegaBus generally won over the train.

However, megabus has never had a anything but a small share of the market. Which presumably shows that the 'trade off' between price vs. journey time/comfort/timetable is a lot less biased towards absolute cheapness than may be thought.

 

[Bletchleyite]

However, megabus has never had a anything but a small share of the market. Which presumably shows that the 'trade off' between price vs. journey time/comfort/timetable is a lot less biased towards absolute cheapness than may be thought.

It also depends if Megabus serves your journey. As they receive no subsidy, they concentrate on major cities. There are huge numbers of journeys to which they are not even remotely applicable.

 

[RT4038]

It also depends if Megabus serves your journey. As they receive no subsidy, they concentrate on major cities. There are huge numbers of journeys to which they are not even remotely applicable.

Well quite. I was including route availability in the general heading of timetable. But even if you only look at the routes served by megabus and train, the market share of megabus (and indeed scheduled coach services in general) is quite small, perhaps with a few exceptions.

 

[squizzler]

Petrol is now over 150p at the pumps with 160 looking probable.

Meanwhile rail fares have gone up by “only” 3.8%.

 

[Watershed]

Petrol is now over 150p at the pumps with 160 looking probable.

Meanwhile rail fares have gone up by “only” 3.8%.

Give it time... The RPI rate in July may well reach double figures with the way things are heading. A number of utility providers now set price increases as RPI + 3.9%, which itself causes more inflation!

 

[Bald Rick]

To answer the OP - yes I think it is having an effect. Albeit difficult to measure. When joe public fills up next time and can fit £100 of diesel in the car (like I did on Saturday) it does rather focus the mind.

 

[A0]

To answer the OP - yes I think it is having an effect. Albeit difficult to measure. When joe public fills up next time and can fit £100 of diesel in the car (like I did on Saturday) it does rather focus the mind.

But it only has an impact where the train is a viable alternative for the journey.

The vast majority of car journeys are short, mainly local. So there will be hardly any migration from road to rail on those.

Even longer journeys it only works IF the train is practical. To give an example my parents live in a village near Hitchin (an area you're familiar with) - I live in Northampton - even though my car does 30-35 mpg the train won't even be looked at for that journey on time and convenience grounds.

 

[Bald Rick]

But it only has an impact where the train is a viable alternative for the journey.

The vast majority of car journeys are short, mainly local. So there will be hardly any migration from road to rail on those.

Even longer journeys it only works IF the train is practical. To give an example my parents live in a village near Hitchin (an area you're familiar with) - I live in Northampton - even though my car does 30-35 mpg the train won't even be looked at for that journey on time and convenience grounds.

Oh I quite agree. However, on flows where the train is a viable alternative, I’m sure it will be having an effect. On some longer distance and commuter routes it will result in increased rail travel, albeit the effect on road traffic will be negligible.

I’ve often said that I use the car on time / convenience grounds even though I get the train free. However with the car now costing £100 to fill up, then I will be more likely to use the train for those trips where it is feasible, even if it takes an hour or two longer. I won’t be the only one who makes that change.

And if I’m going to any of the villages near Hitchin, it will definitely be by bike - it’s only about 45 minutes

 

[squizzler]

Hopefully the railway will now have the confidence to argue for further electrification schemes on national security grounds (reducing the dependence on imported fossil fuels) in addition to the decarbonisation agenda and plain old cost-benefit (the latter will be improved by higher prices). But a subject for a whole new thread if anyone wants to run with it.

 

[A0]

Hopefully the railway will now have the confidence to argue for further electrification schemes on national security grounds (reducing the dependence on imported fossil fuels) in addition to the decarbonisation agenda and plain old cost-benefit (the latter will be improved by higher prices). But a subject for a whole new thread if anyone wants to run with it.

The UK gets less than 5% of its gas from Russia - so much less exposed than Germany for example.

Arguing for "more electrification" is one thing - delivering it is something else, particularly when such schemes may also involve other works such as re-signalling, raising bridges (something that's having to be done up the MML), access to the National Grid and various other things. It's not as simple as just saying to an electrification crew "off you go boys, as you finish this job go and do line 'x', here's a load of gantries and wire, fill your boots." - and it never was. Even in BR days such schemes took several years - the Great Northern electrification from Royston to Kings Cross and Moorgate was approved in 1971 yet the first trains didn't run until 1975 - and that was only on the Drayton Park - Moorgate section which had been taken over from LT so was already electrified on 4th rail so easily converted to 3rd rail. The electric inner suburban service (from Hertford and Welwyn) didn't start until 1976 and the outer suburban services from Royston followed 2 years later in 1978.

 

[miklcct]

Railcard-discounted off-peak train fares are generally comparable to petrol cost for a regional journey in the South East, therefore at this moment I'm still not seriously considering getting a petrol car unless the fuel consumption is under 5 L / 100 km. Only when electric vehicle technology developed to the extent that I can drive 300 km on a full charge, and I can charge everywhere that a long day out is expected (e.g. leisure centres, theatres, museums, etc.), I will consider buying an electric vehicle.

 

[RailWonderer]

My car does 24mpg and I have a railcard. You can guess which is cheaper most of the time. It also depends on transport connections in your area and in the area you are headed.

 

[paul1609]

Personally I've cut back on rail travel because of the increase cost of living. Living in a rural area with no mains gas the increase in Electricity prices it a larger problem for me than diesel. Basically Easyjet/ National Express/ Megabus have taken all my ECML/WCML business. The overnight coach services have the additional bonus of saving a night's accommodation costs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Personally I've cut back on rail travel because of the increase cost of living. Living in a rural area with no mains gas the increase in Electricity prices it a larger problem for me than diesel. Basically Easyjet/ National Express/ Megabus have taken all my ECML/WCML business. The overnight coach services have the additional bonus of saving a night's accommodation costs.

If you can sleep on a coach you are very fortunate, wish I could!

 

[Failed Unit]

I am finding rail is not a practical alternative - reduced frequency = poor connections = don't use rail.

So while the fuel prices should be helping rail - the current service levels mean people will look and see that the journey they wish to take is just not practical at the moment.

Even on the commuter routes, with the low frequencies the view is - "I have survived without going to the office for 2 years".

Not keeping up with current affairs - are lots of Northern routes still bused. I think fuel will need to go much higher before people switch to rail with the current service levels.

 

[miklcct]

My car does 24mpg and I have a railcard. You can guess which is cheaper most of the time. It also depends on transport connections in your area and in the area you are headed.

Why don't you replace your car then?

 

[Paul Jones 88]

If the rail service was to return to pre pandemic levels, people would use it, however, at the moment they are continuing to use cars out of convenience.
If the war escalates and prices increase to plus two pounds per litre, that may change.

 

[Bald Rick]

If the rail service was to return to pre pandemic levels, people would use it, however, at the moment they are continuing to use cars out of convenience.
If the war escalates and prices increase to plus two pounds per litre, that may change.

but, for most routes the service is at Pre pandemic levels for most if not all the day.

sure it isn’t for all routes, but those that aren’t back to normal, or close to it, are definitely the minority.


and there is lots of evidence that even where services are back to Pre covid levels, passenger numbers are not. This applies more to routes into London than elsewhere in the country, but then the clear majority of pre covid rail travel was into or within London.

 

[squizzler]

but, for most routes the service is at Pre pandemic levels for most if not all the day.

sure it isn’t for all routes, but thowe that aren’t back to normal, or close to it, are definitely the minority.

This is not the only occasion this opinion that the railway is still operating a skeleton service has been expressed on this forum of supposed well informed rail enthusiasts.

Is this is a widespread public perception that needs to be tacked by a Rail Delivery Group marketing campaign telling people the service is back to normal and reminding where the timetable information is to be found?

 

[A0]

This is not the only occasion this opinion that the railway is still operating a skeleton service has been expressed on this forum of supposed well informed rail enthusiasts.

Is this is a widespread public perception that needs to be tacked by a Rail Delivery Group marketing campaign telling people the service is back to normal and reminding where the timetable information is to be found?

Bit in bold - enthusiasts generally aren't well informed. Plenty of prejudice, often little fact as this forum regularly demonstrates.

It is fortunate that there are posters like The Planner, Bald Rick and others who work in the industry and share their insights - what is more disappointing is such insights are often derided by armchair experts.

 

[Failed Unit]

Bit in bold - enthusiasts generally aren't well informed. Plenty of prejudice, often little fact as this forum regularly demonstrates.

It is fortunate that there are posters like The Planner, Bald Rick and others who work in the industry and share their insights - what is more disappointing is such insights are often derided by armchair experts.

But try telling that to the good people of South Yorkshire, Great Northern (peak) and EMR to name 3 TOCs I use. Non of which are offering the pre-Christmas timetable. Maybe I am just on the 3 operators that haven’t restored the December 2021 timetable yet, yet alone anything near December 2019.

 

[A0]

But try telling that to the good people of South Yorkshire, Great Northern (peak) and EMR to name 3 TOCs I use. Non of which are offering the pre-Christmas timetable. Maybe I am just on the 3 operators that haven’t restored the December 2021 timetable yet, yet alone anything near December 2019.

Let's look at reality - taking EMR, there is only ONE route with wholesale change now, Nottingham - Matlock which are starting from Derby. Apart from that there are a dozen or so service alterations out of the several hundred services EMR usually operates https://www.eastmidlandsrailway.co.uk/amended-timetable, so Bald Rick's statememt "for most routes the service is at Pre pandemic levels for most if not all the day" is spot on.