Russia invades Ukraine

[Iskra]

Possibly, but that presumes that (a) you have enough troops to be able to spare some to sit around waiting by a rail line for days on end, and (b) you can be certain the people sitting around won't be discovered by the Russians. I'm not sure that either would be the case here.

And an RPG might not actually stop something the size of a train. It might just hole it or miss anything critical. Russian trains are a bit more substantial than ours and tend to run in dual-units. Destroying the track is definitely the easier, less risky option.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If the Russians cared about civilian casualties they wouldn't have embarked on their murderous assault. Just because there haven't perhaps been as many as might have been expected thus far is that Kyiv/Kiev has yet to come under sustained attack. The city is the seventh largest by population in Europe.

If my reading around is correct, it seems Russians tend to regard Ukrainians almost as fellow countrymen (Ukraine was after all part of the same country in Soviet days), so - as an uneducated guess - I would suspect many in the Russian military would be deeply concerned about civilian casualties, even if Putin himself isn't.

 

[Iskra]

If my reading around is correct, it seems Russians tend to regard Ukrainians almost as fellow countrymen (Ukraine was after all part of the same country in Soviet days), so - as an uneducated guess - I would suspect many in the Russian military would be deeply concerned about civilian casualties, even if Putin himself isn't.

They possibly believed the propaganda that they would be welcomed as liberators.

It looked like the intention was a quick storming of Kiev to liquidate the Ukrainian leadership, all-out-war was not the plan. They've got more than they bargained for now and it will be interesting to see how they feel about using tactics that put civilians at risk now that they are bogged-down, taking casualties and facing staunch resistance. Interestingly, Russian media doesn't mention attacks on Kyiv, so domestically Putin can cover that failure up, cancel the operation and save face. Although internationally, he would still be viewed as a pariah. The next 48 hours are decisive I believe.

 

[DanNCL]

Blow up any runways the enemy might use as well

Ukranian military vehicles are blocking both runways at Boryspil airport. Not sure about any of the other civillian airports in Ukraine (apart from Hostomel which is under Russian control).

 

[nanstallon]

Does Russia have conscription or national service?

 

[Darandio]

Does Russia have conscription or national service?

Yes, 18-27 year olds for 12 months.

 

[AlterEgo]

I don’t think anyone in their right mind “wants” Russian soldiers killed, they are just human beings too at the end of the day. We certainly want as much expensive equipment destroyed as possible (plant is probably assigned higher value in compared to human life in dictatorships than in fee democracies).

Cynically, I think injuries are better than deaths and not just from a humanitarian perspective. They require treatment and evacuation which ties up resources, and they can harm morale when they get back home and tell the truth.

I’m afraid severe military casualties are desirable on the Russian side. They are an invading army of grotesque intent and must be killed. That’s war. You probably want quite a few humiliated POWs as well for PR purposes but nothing focuses minds like a burning tank with a corpse inside. That’s the sort of media many Russians consume; they are not insulated from viewing the impact of rockets or mines as we are.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I have seen some quite interesting analysis regarding Putin taking advantage of Brexit almost completely distracting European nations, with Europe seeing that as the biggest threat to itself rather than what was going on in eastern Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

I’m afraid severe military casualties are desirable on the Russian side. They are an invading army of grotesque intent and must be killed. That’s war.

Likely 99% of the forces on the ground don't support the invasion, most Russians see Ukrainians as family. But they are in a situation where they are compelled to fight a war that they don't support as the consequences of insubordination/dessertion are quite severe.

 

[yorksrob]

I have seen some quite interesting analysis regarding Putin taking advantage of Brexit almost completely distracting European nations, with Europe seeing that as the biggest threat to itself rather than what was going on in eastern Ukraine

The response must be to support our allies in Europe, which we are doing.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

They possibly believed the propaganda that they would be welcomed as liberators.

It looked like the intention was a quick storming of Kiev to liquidate the Ukrainian leadership, all-out-war was not the plan. They've got more than they bargained for now and it will be interesting to see how they feel about using tactics that put civilians at risk now that they are bogged-down, taking casualties and facing staunch resistance. Interestingly, Russian media doesn't mention attacks on Kyiv, so domestically Putin can cover that failure up, cancel the operation and save face. Although internationally, he would still be viewed as a pariah. The next 48 hours are decisive I believe.

Thing is Putin is not the sort of person who will want to be seen to have failed that will be humiliation so he is likely to up the ante but whether the military will standby him is the big question.

 

[Scotrail314209]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1497685368421818373

NEW: The Ukrainian Government has warned that there is going to be a huge bombardment of Kyiv in under an hour. Residents have been told to seek shelter.

Ukrainian intelligence says, Russia is about to fire with all available multiply rocket launch systems at Kyiv in about 30 minutes. God save Ukraine! God punish Russia!#

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Oh dear.

I wonder if this could be a last ditch attempt to take Kyiv before retreating?

 

[yorksrob]

I hope we've provided them with plenty of anti aircraft kit.

 

[najaB]

I hope we've provided them with plenty of anti aircraft kit.

Anti-aircraft systems are of limited use against short-range ballistic missiles.

 

[AlterEgo]

Likely 99% of the forces on the ground don't support the invasion, most Russians see Ukrainians as family. But they are in a situation where they are compelled to fight a war that they don't support as the consequences of insubordination/dessertion are quite severe.

Undoubtedly, which makes it all the more tragic. The Russians don’t seem motivated at all.

 

[coppercapped]

If my reading around is correct, it seems Russians tend to regard Ukrainians almost as fellow countrymen (Ukraine was after all part of the same country in Soviet days),

Balderdash.

In 1932-3, as part of the Soviet collectivisation, the Stalinist regime unleashed a man-made terror-famine in Ukraine and the neighbouring Cossack lands. All food stocks were forcibly requisitioned; a military cordon prevented all supplies from entering; and the people were left to die. The aim was to kill Ukrainian nationhood, and with it the 'class enemy'. The death toll reached some 7 million[1]. The world has seen some terrible famines, many aggravated by civil war. But a famine organised as a genocidal act of state policy must be considered unique.

These were Soviet children and those who were putting them to death were Soviet people.

The outside world was not informed. In the USA a Pulitzer Prize was given to the New York Times correspondent who spoke freely in private of millions of deaths but published nothing. In England George Orwell complained that the terror-famine had 'escaped the attention of English russophiles'.

The author who first put together convincing proof of these terrible events (Robert Conquest, The Harvest of Sorrow: Soviet Collectivisation and the Terror Famine, London, 1986) wrote a book of 412 pages with about 500 words per page, then stated in the Preface 'about twenty human lives were lost, not for every word, but for every letter in this book'.

The outside world may have ignored this genocide, but folk memories are long — and probably explains the Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainians have every reason to despise and mistrust Russian governments.

[1] Few records were kept or survived. The calculation was made using later demographic data, so it may be out by a million or so.

so - as an uneducated guess - I would suspect many in the Russian military would be deeply concerned about civilian casualties, even if Putin himself isn't.

You might think that — I couldn't possibly comment.

 

[brad465]

There's some tough competition, but I think the award for most stupid tweet by a UK MP/Politician during this invasion so far goes to this one from Kevin Foster (MP for Torbay) in reply to Luke Pollard (there is no link because he's deleted it):

 

[Ediswan]

There's some tough competition, but I think the award for most stupid tweet by a UK MP/Politician during this invasion so far goes to this one from Kevin Foster (MP for Torbay) in reply to Luke Pollard (there is no link because he's deleted it):

How about this from an Ipswich Conservative councillor:

"Putin just wants to give the people of Ukraine independence, it's what they want. The media are nothing but blatant liars."

https://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/local-council/shayne-pooley-suspended-conservative-party-8717430

 

[brad465]

A number of Russian banks now to be cut off from SWIFT, and the Russian Central bank is being sanctioned:

West to cut some Russian banks off from Swift

The EU, US and allies will block a number of Russian banks from the main global payment system, Swift.

www.bbc.co.uk

The EU, US and their allies have agreed to cut off a number of Russian banks from the main international payment system, Swift.

"This is intended to cut off these institutions from international financial flows, which will massively restrict their global operations," a German government spokesman said.

Russia is reliant on the Swift system for its oil and gas exports.

But the move could also harm Western businesses doing business with Russia.

The measures agreed by the US, UK, Europe and Canada also include restriction on the Russian central bank's international reserves, the nations said in a joint statement.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

A number of Russian banks now to be cut off from SWIFT, and the Russian Central bank is being sanctioned:

West to cut some Russian banks off from Swift

The EU, US and allies will block a number of Russian banks from the main global payment system, Swift.

www.bbc.co.uk

Likely to cause a spike up in energy costs when markets reopen and we are already seeing panic buying of petrol/diesel in the UK. Best sanction we have so just have to stomach it and keep at by supporting Ukraine with military kit and hope that Putin gets taken down by a new Russian revolution.

 

[brad465]

Likely to cause a spike up in energy costs when markets reopen and we are already seeing panic buying of petrol/diesel in the UK. Best sanction we have so just have to stomach it and keep at by supporting Ukraine with military kit and hope that Putin gets taken down by a new Russian revolution.

I think there are large sections of the public at home and abroad who, for the short term at least, are more outraged by what's going on in Ukraine than energy costs. We need to be financially supporting those who'd be hardest hit paid for by entities with plenty going (unlikely for a number of reasons of course). More broadly, any economic system that is disrupted by good morals is not fit for purpose.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

More broadly, any economic system that is disrupted by good morals is not fit for purpose.

Thats the downside of globalisation of course

 

[brad465]

Thats the downside of globalisation of course

In particular, the mindset politicians have taken on that all economic growth is good, for the sake of looking strong to the voters and on international standing, regardless of how clean that growth is. Turns out growth somewhat driven by buying commodities from dodgy regimes, and/or allowing money launderers to buy up large swathes of the property market under a fastrack investment visa scheme, has come back to bite.

 

[HST274]

Personally I do not think Putin can afford to lose, and I don't think he will halt any offensive unless there is a revolt within Russia. If not I believe he will just increase the violence factor and commit more and more troops, until he breaks Kyiv down through terror or starvation. A dour view though- I could certainly use some optimism.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Liz Truss says ‘nowhere left to hide’ for Putin allies – as it happened

Pipeline in Kharkiv and oil terminal in Vasylkiv believed hit as US, UK and EU move to exclude ‘selected’ banks from global payments system

www.theguardian.com

Journalists in Kyiv are reporting numerous explosions around the city, as Russia is believed to be launching a further offensive against the Ukrainian capital.

CNN’s Tim Lister reported that two large explosions “lit up the night sky” southwest of Kyiv, with one of the detonations about 12 miles from the city center, the direction of one of Kyiv’s airports.

Ukrainian officials had warned residents of Kyiv, and other cities, to prepare for airstrikes, which appeared to have begun in the early hours local time. CNN showed video of what seemed to be a large fire near the center of Kyiv, and the Kyiv Post reported that the Vasilkov oil depot, about 10 miles south of Kyiv, was ablaze.

Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian ambassador to the US, acknowledged in an interview with CNN the reports that Vasilkov had been targeted.

Kyiv under attack right now, with Vasilkov oil depot currently ablaze.

It's still a long night ahead for them, although things don't seem to have heated up much yet, it seems to be on the same level as last night, but targeting an oil depot is quite significant.

 

[DustyBin]

You may be right, however under Putin Russia has been carrying out improvements to its navy. So the answer is, we won’t know until and if such a situation arises.

But you should never underestimate your enemy. To do so would be very foolish.

I totally agree with your last sentence; ironically it appears that Putin has fallen into exactly this trap.

In regard to the Russian Navy, it may well have been modernised to a degree and is certainly substantial in size (how much of it can actually be deployed is another matter!), but it poses little threat to the UK unless we were caught seriously napping.

They would not need a total blockade to make life difficult for us. Obviously NATO members should help. But it’s perfectly possible that not all companies or countries would want to take the risk with their ships.

I don’t think any of this is very likely. But we are discussing possibilities, not certainties here.

It certainly does no harm to be aware of the dangers.

The main point I’m making is that to most people, Russia is a far away place. But that is not always true for their navy or airforce.

You’re right, we intercept them on a regular basis but IMO that’s a good thing (on the basis they aren’t going to stop probing our defences). If they were getting through I’d be rather more concerned!

As I said earlier, we would not be a push over. And, as part of NATO, there is no way that Putin would mount any kind of serious attack against us. But that does not mean he would not try something.

I would expect a “serious attack” or “something” would both trigger the same response, i.e. a full blooded and utterly devastating NATO response and Putin knows it.

 

[najaB]

I would expect a “serious attack” or “something” would both trigger the same response, i.e. a full blooded and utterly devastating NATO response and Putin knows it.

More to the point, the fact that he can't be sure that there wouldn't be a response means that he has to assume that there would be.

 

[kristiang85]

Liz Truss says ‘nowhere left to hide’ for Putin allies – as it happened

Pipeline in Kharkiv and oil terminal in Vasylkiv believed hit as US, UK and EU move to exclude ‘selected’ banks from global payments system

www.theguardian.com

Kyiv under attack right now, with Vasilkov oil depot currently ablaze.

It's still a long night ahead for them, although things don't seem to have heated up much yet, it seems to be on the same level as last night, but targeting an oil depot is quite significant.

A pipeline was targeted in Kharkhiv too, and Kharkiv itself seemed to be getting heavily bombarded. I'm not looking forward to the news I will wake up to tomorrow morning.

By the way, has anybody else been finding it hard to sleep the last three nights because of this?

 

[najaB]

By the way, has anybody else been finding it hard to sleep the last three nights because of this?

It's troubling, but the thing you need to do is accept that currently there is nothing you can do to change what will happen.

 

[dakta]

Yep, whilst not exactly on our doorstep this has a significance because this is going to shape a lot of things going forwards.

I always got the impression that since ww2 we've sort of done well to try and avoid wars and tried to work through diplomacy, this one is significant because words or even sanctions are not really a currency in this scenario in the context of protecting Ukraine. Someone mentioned earlier about not particularly wanting russians to die but at the same time noting the russian losses - I have to admit the sentiment had crossed my mind because in the immediate short term the demand for bodybags and portable crematorium facilities seems the only language that stands a chance (even if a low one) of making any kind of impact. You can argue with Putin committed it won't from his perspective, but even then it seems to be denting morale on the ground if you can put any faith in the media.

In terms of concrete action (and I appreciate the realities and limitations here) Ukraine has very much taken the 'risk' element of all this alone and I have to say they have done much better than I expected - I did expect after the annexing of crimea that it might actually be over quite quickly the way we think Russia intended. I hope they can make this very painful for them because even if it all goes wrong every bully remembers the black eyes even in fights they 'won' and I believe world lessons are being dealt even now.