Russia invades Ukraine

[birchesgreen]

Something I learnt recently is Russian appears to be trying to take control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors. This is pure speculation of cours, but if those went into meltdown, it would effectively be like a nuke, without the possibility of nukes being fired back....

Well no need to go too dark, the last thing many Russians would want would be nuclear meltdowns over the border, many of the reactors are actually pretty close to the border.

 

[kristiang85]

Something I learnt recently is Russian appears to be trying to take control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors. This is pure speculation of cours, but if those went into meltdown, it would effectively be like a nuke, without the possibility of nukes being fired back....

Surely it's more about controlling power supply.

They have Chernobyl, so if they wanted to they could blow that to bits once the wind was going the right way (Belarus is right next door) but they know that will probably alienate even pro russian Ukrainians if they do that.

I do fear they might use one of those Mother Of All Bombs though, using the justification that the US used them in Afghanistan.

 

[najaB]

I do fear they might use one of those Mother Of All Bombs though, using the justification that the US used them in Afghanistan.

They aren't really very effective weapons, beyond the shock and awe value.

 

[kristiang85]

They aren't really very effective weapons, beyond the shock and awe value.

Well that's it, half of modern warfare is propaganda.

 

[Chingy]

Watching the Everton City match, apparently Roman Ambramovich has handed over Chelsea ownership to a Chelsea Charity.

 

[Darandio]

Apparently Roman Abramovich has handed stewardship of Chelsea to the Chelsea Foundation. Crikey.

 

[brad465]

Going by BBC news reports, Germany now sanctions targeted use of the SWIFT banking system against Russia and has sent/is sending weapons to Ukraine.
Also it seem Russian commanders are starting to get annoyed as the Army seems to be under resourced and they are running out of fuel.

Germany send arms to Ukraine is ending 75 years of their foreign policy stating they should not be sending arms to conflict zones, which coupled with them and Italy now changing their minds somewhat on SWIFT, is a sign that bottom-up pressure is working.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Finally, under much diplomatic pressure, Germany has decided to supply arms to Ukraine.

They haven't closed their airspace to Russian aircraft though.
From Estonia, Latvia and Poland in the north, to Bulgaria and Romania in the south, Eastern European countries have been closing their airspace to Russian aircraft.
This afternoon, Russian aircraft have been taking a very extended detour via Germany and Austria, to reach Mediterranean and southern European destinations.

 

[Busaholic]

Case in point Donald Trump. Mentally unbalanced and paranoid, but he went a full term as president without ordering a nuclear strike.

T tyrannical
R ridiculous
U unbalanced
M mendacious
P paranoid

P paranoid
U unbalanced
T thuggish
I ignorant
N neo-Nazi

We can only hope and pray that the age of President Trumputin, like the age of Aquarius, is quickly behind us.

 

[yorksrob]

T tyrannical
R ridiculous
U unbalanced
M mendacious
P paranoid

P paranoid
U unbalanced
T thuggish
I ignorant
N neo-Nazi

We can only hope and pray that the age of President Trumputin, like the age of Aquarius, is quickly behind us.

I quite liked the idea of the age of Aquarius !

Apologies, been listening to too much radio 2 !

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Germany send arms to Ukraine is ending 75 years of their foreign policy stating they should not be sending arms to conflict zones, which coupled with them and Italy now changing their minds somewhat on SWIFT, is a sign that bottom-up pressure is working.

We all know why Germany adopted that policy largely driven by US and Britains oversight of Germany after WWII. Anyhow it is good that they are stepping up to the plate.

SWIFT sanctions still need the US to come aboard but with whole of Europe now behind it (even Hungary has agreed and they are most pro Putin out of EU members) it must be surely only a matter of time. Without SWIFT access though how will Germany pay for its Russian gas could well see it cut off and that will cause havoc in commodity markets if they do that although Putin not so smart given spring is coming in the Northern Hemisphere to cause immediate issues.

 

[43096]

Also it seem Russian commanders are starting to get annoyed as the Army seems to be under resourced and they are running out of fuel.

There's footage of this on Twitter. Apparently the person speaking to the stranded Russian soldiers offered them a tow back to Russia.

There's footage of this on Twitter. Apparently the person speaking to the stranded Russian soldiers offered them a tow back to Russia.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497485623225200640%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-europe-60517447

 

[yorksrob]

Apparently Roman Abramovich has handed stewardship of Chelsea to the Chelsea Foundation. Crikey.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I'd like to think that he genuinely loves the club and has acted to shield it from the geopolitical consequences of the invasion.

 

[MattRat]

Surely it's up to us (the West) to decide whether such an action would be considered a nuclear attack.

Plausible deniabilty. Claim it's an accident. Even if a lie, what can the West really do about it outside more sanctions?

Well no need to go too dark, the last thing many Russians would want would be nuclear meltdowns over the border, many of the reactors are actually pretty close to the border.

I've seen many people claim Putin has gone off the deep end. If he has, this would be 'normal' for him.

 

[yorksrob]

Plausible deniabilty. Claim it's an accident. Even if a lie, what can the West really do about it outside more sanctions?

I've seen many people claim Putin has gone off the deep end. If he has, this would be 'normal' for him.

Perhaps the West could state that we would view any malfunction of the power stations while under Russian control, as an act of war and would be prepared to respond in like.

 

[adc82140]

Liveuamap is a great resource

 

[squizzler]

There's footage of this on Twitter. Apparently the person speaking to the stranded Russian soldiers offered them a tow back to Russia.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497485623225200640%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-europe-60517447

Bear in mind this would be the best troops forming the initial invasion force. Subsequent reinforcements may not all be quite as competent or well prepared.

 

[GB]

They aren't really very effective weapons, beyond the shock and awe value.

How are they not very effective? MOAB is among the highest class of non nuclear bombs in the US arsenal and the Russian FOAB is smaller and lighter with a much bigger yield and blast radius.

 

[najaB]

How are they not very effective? MOAB is among the highest class of non nuclear bombs in the US arsenal and the Russian FOAB is smaller and lighter with a much bigger yield and blast radius.

Because they aren't effective against hardened targets, and are too indiscriminate to use in anything other than open land.

Because the MOAB is so big, it must be delivered by a relatively slow-moving cargo plane, one vulnerable to basic air defenses. MOAB’s lack of ground-penetrating capabilities means that it is useless against hardened underground targets.

Link: https://www.wellesley.edu/albright/about/blog/3406-how-stop-worrying-about-bomb

 

[TheEdge]

Russia were obviously going for shock and awe but severely underestimated Ukrainian opposition and didn't use nearly enough shock nor awe so it looks like it's starting to slow down which will be deeply frustrating to Russian forces on the ground.

Also looks like the Javelins and TLAWs are quite devestating in ambush attacks.

 

[Iskra]

Russia were obviously going for shock and awe but severely underestimated Ukrainian opposition and didn't use nearly enough shock nor awe so it looks like it's starting to slow down which will be deeply frustrating to Russian forces on the ground.

Also looks like the Javelins and TLAWs are quite devestating in ambush attacks.

They haven't used enough troops, and they dispersed the ones they did use in multi-pronged attack so lacked a decisive concentration to achieve anything- very poor military planning. Also, the defenders are much more motivated than the attacking force, that probably also don't want to be there.

However, credit must go to the brave Ukrainian defenders, the personal leadership of Zelensky and the organisation that has pulled a credible defense out of thin air at short notice.

This could turn into a Russian Vietnam very quickly as Putin will not want to pull out and lose face.

 

[GB]

Because they aren't effective against hardened targets, and are too indiscriminate to use in anything other than open land.


Link: https://www.wellesley.edu/albright/about/blog/3406-how-stop-worrying-about-bomb

While there maybe a point about delivery method, I'm not sure ground penetration or hardened targets are much of an issue in a city center. Indiscriminate might mean something to someone who has a conscience or who isn't unhinged, not sure those apply to Putin.

 

[AlterEgo]

Russia were obviously going for shock and awe but severely underestimated Ukrainian opposition and didn't use nearly enough shock nor awe so it looks like it's starting to slow down which will be deeply frustrating to Russian forces on the ground.

Also looks like the Javelins and TLAWs are quite devestating in ambush attacks.

Our best hope is that there are significant military casualties on the Russian side. This doesn’t appear to be a very popular conflict and more dead Russian sons are going to be hard to deflect from at home.

Each Ukrainian death merely bolsters the popular cause there. The opposite seems true of the Russian deaths.

 

[squizzler]

Our best hope is that there are significant military casualties on the Russian side. This doesn’t appear to be a very popular conflict and more dead Russian sons are going to be hard to deflect from at home.

Each Ukrainian death merely bolsters the popular cause there. The opposite seems true of the Russian deaths.

I don’t think anyone in their right mind “wants” Russian soldiers killed, they are just human beings too at the end of the day. We certainly want as much expensive equipment destroyed as possible (plant is probably assigned higher value in compared to human life in dictatorships than in fee democracies).

Cynically, I think injuries are better than deaths and not just from a humanitarian perspective. They require treatment and evacuation which ties up resources, and they can harm morale when they get back home and tell the truth.

 

[JamesT]

While there maybe a point about delivery method, I'm not sure ground penetration or hardened targets are much of an issue in a city center. Indiscriminate might mean something to someone who has a conscience or who isn't unhinged, not sure those apply to Putin.

Though if the Russians weren’t caring about civilian casualties we would likely have seen some different tactics already. They’ve not used their multiple launch rockets or artillery which would normally be expected if they were trying to suppress defences and didn’t care about precision.

 

[DanNCL]

Ukrzaliznytsia have apparently announced that parts of all lines between Ukraine and Russia have been blown up by the Ukrainian military to prevent Russia from sending anything in by rail.

 

[Annetts key]

Given how many Ukrainian injuries are being reported, I dread to think how bad it is for the Russian forces.

War is certainly a bloody business.

How long until the Russian army generals decide this war is not worth it?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2022 ==

Ukrzaliznytsia have apparently announced that parts of all lines between Ukraine and Russia have been blown up by the Ukrainian military to prevent Russia from sending anything in by rail.

I would have thought several small groups with RPGs strategically positioned would have been better. Wait until the Russian train is in view, then blow up the loco. Then take out the rest of the cargo/wagons or carriages.

 

[yorksrob]

Ukrzaliznytsia have apparently announced that parts of all lines between Ukraine and Russia have been blown up by the Ukrainian military to prevent Russia from sending anything in by rail.

Sounds like a fairly sensible manoeuvre to me.

Blow up any runways the enemy might use as well

 

[Busaholic]

Though if the Russians weren’t caring about civilian casualties we would likely have seen some different tactics already.

If the Russians cared about civilian casualties they wouldn't have embarked on their murderous assault. Just because there haven't perhaps been as many as might have been expected thus far is that Kyiv/Kiev has yet to come under sustained attack. The city is the seventh largest by population in Europe.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I would have thought several small groups with RPGs strategically positioned would have been better. Wait until the Russian train is in view, then blow up the loco. Then take out the rest of the cargo/wagons or carriages.

Possibly, but that presumes that (a) you have enough troops to be able to spare some to sit around waiting by a rail line for days on end, and (b) you can be certain the people sitting around won't be discovered by the Russians. I'm not sure that either would be the case here.